Friday, August 27, 2010

Newmarket, Ffos Las and Thirsk this afternoon

The first four races at Newmarket this afternoon are for 2yo´s and there are quite likely to be some well-bred newcomers from top stables in the winners enclosure. From the betting point of view however the 1 3/3 miles handicap at 17.05 looks more interesting and Jeremy Noseda´ s very consistent Plymouth Rock (William Buick) is our choice here. Noseda can follow up with Call to Reason (Richard Hughes) in the mile maiden half an hour later, who probably has only Significant Move (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) to fear.

The interesting runner at Thirsk is ex-German Andorn (Peter Kirby/ Paul Pickard), who has really found his form and has won 4 of his last 5 races, including at Catterick on Wednesday over todays distance of 2 miles. He runs in the handicap at 15.10, where Lady Hestia (Marcus Tregoning/ Frankie Dettori) looks the main danger. Frankie´s main reason for being here is to partner Saeed bin Suroor´s well-bred debutant Ru´oud in the 2yo maiden half an hour later.

There is a mixed meeting at Ffos Las, with the first 4 races on the flat and the last 4 over jumps. The most valuable event is a 2 mile handicap chase at 17.50 with some quite smart performers. Yellow Flag (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) was in excellent form in 2008 before an injury caused a break of 22 months in his career, but is back to top form and has in fact finished first or second in his last 7 starts. The opposition, headed by recent winner Grand Lahou (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) is now much stronger, but he can keep up this proud record.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Cartmel, Bellewstown and Tipperary this evening

Even after the abandonment of Goodwood, there is still racing this evening both in the U.K. at Cartmel and in Ireland at Bellewstown and Tipperary. Th last-named course stages the best race of the day a listed race for fillies over 7 furlongs at 18.20 CET. These events always attract big fields, in this case 14 runners, but half of them have no chance at all, at least in theory. Gile na Greine (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), third in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and runner-up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stands out on ratings and should win this easily. If Lolly for Dolly (Tommy Stack( Wayne Lordan) could recover her early season form, she might be a danger, while the improving Smart Striking (John Oxx/ Fran Berry) is next best.

The other two meetings are both over jumps, woth Bellewstown staging an all-hurdles card. German-bred Auenshütze has been runner-up in his last 4 races but might get off the mark in the 2 miles 1 furlong race at 17.25. The danger is clearly Pires, one of 3 mounts at the fixture for Ruby Walsh and trainer Tony Martin. Their best chance is probably Dream Champion in the 3 mile handicap at 19.35. He has a 4 lbs penalty for winning over 2 1/2 miles on
Sunday but scored in good style and can go in again.

There are some very small fields at the pretty Cartmel track, where no race has more than 7 runners. The main event is a handicap chase over 3 3/4 miles at 18.55. With the stable now in good form , we hope that Petite Margot (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) can defy top weight here.

Ffos Las, Ayr and Lingfield this afternoon

Today´ s racing at Ffos Las is on the flat and the main event is the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.20. 8 runners here and quite an open race, although Desert Poppy (Walter Swinburn/ Shane Kelly) will probably start as a warm favourite. The Oasis Dream filly has finished first or second on 7 of her 8 career starts and was especially impressive last time at Newbury. However she is stepping up in grade here. Top-weight Lowdown (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley), who has been running in better company, Cansili Star (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) and the lightly-weighted Duster (Hughie Morrison/ Nicky Mackay ) - coming off a break but the stable is in good form - all look dangerous.

The most interesting race at Ayr is a 9 furlongs handicap for older horses at 16.40, another very open affair with 11 runners. Jim Goldie always does well here and saddles 2 runners. Grand Diamond (Neil Farley), who ran here yesterday, finishing 4th under another apprentice, and Jewelled Dagger (Joe Fanning), who is our selection. However top-weight Docofthebay (Jeremy Glover/ Peter Mcdonald) could be a big threat in this company.
At Lingfield the first 3 races are on the all-weather and the last 3 on turf. Dubai Media (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon) is the most interesting runner here. She was a very easy winner of a CD maiden last time and now shoulders top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30. She has a big weight for a 3yo filly against older horses, but is the only runner here with a progressive profile.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

And three more this evening

There is jumps racing this evening at two Welsh meetings Ffos Las and Bangor and flat racing in Ireland at Bellewstown. The ridiculous clash between Ffos Las and Bangor results in very small fields at both fixtures. Gordon Elliott is riding high at the moment and could well clean up at Ffos Las. He has 3 runners in the main event, a valuable handicap hurdle at 20.20 CET, Hoopy with his main jockey Paul Carberry, Supercede, who has won 3 out of his 4 races this summer, with the good claimer Keith Donoghue, and Valerius with Brian Hughes. He also has chances with Russian War at 18.20, Apt to Run half an hour later, and Halfstead Dream, who has top weight in another handicap hurdle at 19.50, and it will be suprising if he goes back to Ireland without a winner.

The best race at Bangor is also a handicap hurdle at 19.00, and the improving Points of View (Kim Bailey/ Sean Quinlan) looks the one to be on here; consistent Murcar (Alison Thorpe/ Oliver Dayman) and top-weight Bathwick Man (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) are the main threats.

The racing at Bellewstown is on the flat, but we expect jumping trainers to come up trumps. Jessica Harrington has her string in great form and can take the 2yo maiden at 18.05 with Back Burner, and also has chances in the conditions race over 1 3/4 miles at 20.45 with Greenbelt Star, both partnered by Fran Berry. The dangers here are Hazymm (Edward O´Grady/ Wayne Lordan) and Zaralabad (Charlie Swan/ O´Farrell), also from jumping stables.

Three meetings this afternoon

Three meetings this afternoon, at Ayr on the Scottish west coast, Brighton on the English south coast and Catterick in Yorkshire. Unusually Brighton offers the best sport, and Ryan Moore ws due to make his comeback here, but his wrist problem has still not cleared up and Kieren Fallon comes in for the ride on Sir Michael Stoute´ s Profondo Rosso in the 2yo maiden at 16.00 CET, who was beaten a neck last time and can get off the mark today. Broghton also has two quite decent handicaps at 17.00 over a mile and half an hour later over 7 furlongs. Both have small fields but still look very open. Stoute and Fallon team up again with Mr. Irons in the former event, but we just prefer top-weight Satwa Laird (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Hughes), narrowly beaten last time in Goodwood handicap. Dajen (David Simcock/ Laura Pike), who has won 4 of his last 5 races, - three of them with this rider- also comes into the reckoning as does Mishrif (John Jenkins/ Seb Sanders), who is a bit tricky but li kes these up & downhill tracks. Should Mishrif run well, this would be a clear indication to the chances of Woodcote Place (Paul Chamings/ George Baker) at 17.30, who beat him at Epsom last time. Colpeper (Mark Johnston/ Fallon) looks the chief danger.

At Ayr, the mile handicap at 16.40 is also very open, but consistent German-bred Daring Dream (Jim Goldie/ Gary Bartley) must have a solid each-way chance, while the same trainer has prospects of following up half an hour later with Grand Diamond (Paul Norton); however here we prefer top-weight Northside Prince (Alan Swinbank/ Peter Mcdonald), who has won his last 2 races, including this CD, and seems much improved.

It is often dangerous to back horses with a succession of second places to their name, but Engulf (William Haggas/ Liam Jones) really does look unbeatable in the 6 furlongs maiden at 15.50 at Catterick. Ex-German Andorn (Peter Kirby/ Paul Pickard) has really found his form in the last few weeks and can win again at 16.20.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Modest sport today

More modest sport at today´s 4 British meetings and one in Ireland. There is a lot of rain about and punters should check the going and also watch out for non-runners. The 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30 CET is the best race at Yarmouth, and lightly-raced Harry Patch (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan) is the likely winner here if he is in top form; on his only start in the last 15 months he finished runner-up in a big field at Haydock.

Top-weight Imperial Guest (George Margarson/ Tom Queally) is the danger together with Waveband (Mark Johnson/ Richard Hills), who made all for an easy win at Leicester last time. Hills also has a good chance in the fillies maiden an hour later on William Haggas´ Hamloola. She has clearly the best form of those that have run, but John Gosden´s well-bred debutant Fun Affair (Saleem Golam), who cost $ 625,000 as a yearling, is a possible dark horse here.

Michael Jarvis saddles another lightly-raced campaigner in Cool Judgement (Philip Robinson), who has had repeated problems and has not run for 15 months. He has top-weight in the 1 1/2 mile handicap this evening at 19.20 at Leicester. However, now that the rains have come, the selection here is Ella (Alan Swinbank/ Robert Winston), who has repeatedly been a non-runner because of the fast ground, Conditions are finally to her liking. 3yo Senate (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) is the danger here.

The 2yo maiden could be the most interesting event at Kempton´s all-weather meeting this evening. Hoot (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) and Barking (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) were both runners-up in this grade last time and one of them should win now. Trainer Hughie Morrison has hit form with a vengeance (6 winners in the last 2 days) and his Repealed (Steve Drowne) could run well in the 1 1/2 mile maiden at 20.10, even though he has lot to find on the formbook.

In Ireland there are some large but in the main uninspiring fields at Sligo. The 10 furlongs maiden at 20.05 could be of interest. Battleoftrafalgar (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) finished just in front of Sailors Warn (Timothy Doyle/ Billy Lee) in what was probably a better race at Galway and could fight out the finish, with German-bred Dart Queen (Peter Deegan/ Willie Supple) next best.

The only jumps racing today is at Sedgefield, where German-bred Sadlers Star (Michael Blake/ Denis O´Regan) has a good each-way chance despite top-weight in the novice hurdle at 16.15. The same trainer can follow up with Sir Bumble (Graham Lee) in the novice handicap chase half an hour later, who also has to concede weight all round but is in great form at present.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Hamilton and Kempton this afternoon, Carlisle and Windsor in the evening

The usual Monday fare today, i.e. mainly very poor racing; easily the most interesting races are at Kempton´s all-weather meeting, with the final two races, despite small fields, featuring some useful performers. Godolphin won the mile conditions race at 17.50 CET last year and have a good chance of doubling up with two runners- Secrecy (Ted Durcan) and Sirocco Breeze (Frankie Dettori); the latter is the highest-rated runner and we expect that Frankie has chosen the right one. The big danger is Riggins (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), not disgraced in a Group Two last time and before that runner-up in the Royal Hunt Cup. Godolphin also have prospects in the following 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 18.20 with Fareej (Dettori), but this is a very tricky race. The lightly-raced Sagamore (John Gosden/ Neil Callan) and Shubaat (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) clearly come into the reckoning, while Balding and Fortune are also strongly represented with course specialist Dromore.

The Hamilton card this afternoon is not at all punter-friendly, with some very small fields. It could be significant that Jamie Spencer makes the journey up to Scotland to partner Michael Bell´s Miss Chaumiere in the 3yo mile handicap at 17.00. She has not shown much so far, but this is a very modest race and connections will be keen for this well-bred filly to win a race. Spencer also partners Fujin Dancer for trainer Kevin Ryan in the claimer at 17.30 and he also has a good chance.

Spencer then travels on to the Carisle evening meeting for 3 more rides for Kevin Ryan - Nellie Ellis in the 5 furlongs nursery at 19.30, Sharp Eclipse in a handicap over the same trip an hour later, and Peters Gift in a 7 furlongs handicap at 21.00 and all three should run well.

Windsor stage their last Monday evening meeting of 2010 with some large fields of mainly moderate performers. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have easily the best records here, and despite some costly defeats recently, can take the 2 races for 2yo´s with Invincible Ridge at 18.15 - beaten a neck over this CD on his debut, but meets some well-bred newcomers here- and Takeaway, top-weight in the nursery an hour later, and also just beaten last time. Another top-weight, Absinthe (Walter Swinburn/ Adam Kirby) can take the 10 furlongs handicap at 19.45, after winning cosily at Sandown last time.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Prix Morny and Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville

A truly excellent card at Deauville today, with two Group One races as the highlights, the Prix Morny for 2yo´s over 1200 metres at 15.40 CET and the Prix Jean Romanet for 4yo and older fillies and mares over 2000 metres at 16.15. The Morny has been dominated by British-trained runners in recent years and this is likely to be the case again, as 5 of the 11 runners are trained across the Channel. This includes ex-Spanish Irish Field (John Hills/ Christophe Soumillon), who has been sold to Hong Kong and is likely to be departing soon for the Far East. The best of the British is probably Richard Hannon´s unbeaten Libranno (Richard Hughes), who scored in good style at Goodwood last time. The Hannon stable have had to endure a couple of shock defeats recently, but are basically still in top form and Libranno looks very smart. The Godolphin runner Al Aasifh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and David Simcock´s Dream Ahead, whose jockey William Buick flies back from the States aft er his victory in the Arlington Million yesterday, should also be considered. Best of the French could be Broox, the mount of Olivier Peslier, whose trainer Eoghan O´Neill is of course Irish.

The Romanet should however be kept at home as Stacelita (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Soumillon) looks almost unbeatable, and her defeat by Midday in the Nassau looks better in the light of the latter´s easy Yorkshire Oaks win last week. However on a line through Midday she does not much in hand of Shalayana (Mikel Delzangles( Gerald Mossé) and Board Meeting (Ellie Lellouche/ Antony Crastus) who had the Cecil filly back in third when finishing 1-2 in last year´s Opera. Ex-German Antara (bin Suroor/ Dettori) and German-owned Reggane (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Maxime Guyon) both look well held. Stacelita, who also has a German pedigree, is top class and has everything in her favour today.

Jean-Claude Rouget should have a profitable afternoon, as he also has an excellent chance of winning the other 2000 metre race for fillies, the Group Three Prix de la Nonette for 3yo´s at 14.35. He has two runners here, Lily of the Valley (Soumillon) and Zagora (Ioritz Mendizibal); although the former has won her last 5 races, we prefer the latter, who showed good speed to win over this CD last time. Never Forget (Lellouche/ Crastus) is also not out of it, while Contredance (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), 5th in the Nassau last time, looks best of the Brits.

This has been a good meeting for German runners (despite yesterday´s disqualification) and we expect a German-trained winner today, when the much improved Tres Rock Danon( Waldemar Hickst/ Dominique Boeuf) lines up for the Prix Kergorlay (Group Three, 3000 metres, 16.50). Blek (Lellouche/ Crastus) is the obvious danger, as well as Manighar (Cumani/ Fallon), who was trained in France when winning the Chaudenay last year from Los Cristianos (Couetil/ Thomas Huet), while Americain (Royer-Dupré/ Mossé) is also improved, but none of them look impregnable.

Today´s U.K. and Irish racing

Very modest sport today at the 5 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland, and they all pale into insignificance in comparison with the excellent card at Deauville (see next article). Musselburgh´s best race is a rather feeble 5 furlongs handicap at 17.20 CET, with question marks over most of the runners. Rasaman (Jim Goldie/ Gary Bartley) was a CD winner recently, but has run badly since and may not confirm the placings with Jargelle (David and Adrian Nicholls). Linda Perratt saddles two runners, of whom bottom weight The Bear (Peter Mcdonald) is probably the pick, while The Nifty Fox (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) also meets Rasaman on better terms and has a chance. Jargelle (each-way) is our suggestion.

At Folkestone, the main event is also a class 3 handicap, for fillies over 10 furlongs at 17.40. This is a much stronger race, with most of the 7 runners in good form, including the two Godolphin entries Nafura (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) and Anacopa (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Antioco Murgia). Ishraaqat (Marcus Tregoning/ Tagdh O´Shea) looks dangerous off bottom weight, while Ralph Beckett has two runners, of which Fastback (Jim Crowley) was a very easy winner last time. Sparkling Smile (David Lanigan) has won all her 4 starts this season, but faces better opposition this time. Many possibilities here, but we go for top-weight Nafura.

There is Irish flat racing at Cork, with some huge fields. The most interesting race could be the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.35. Sampers (Mike Halford/ Gary Carroll) beat Good to Follow (Eddie Lynam/ Pat Smullen) over this trip at Dundalk, but the latter may reverse the placings this time (especially remembering Lynam´s York coup!)
There is also N.H. racing at Newton Abbot and in Ireland at Ballinrobe. At the latter track Ruby Walsh has 3 rides for Tony Martin, Dream Champion in the handicap hurdle at 16.15, Keelaghan in the chase at 17.45 and Corrick Bridge in a chase at 18.15. All could go well, with Keelaghan the pick in our view.

Main event at Newton Abbot is a valuable handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.30. With 18 runners this looks wide open. There´s no Panic (Paul Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon), Battle Group (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Tarvini (Jonjo Ò´Neill/ Richard McLernon) and Tout Regulier (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) all multiple winners this summer and any of them could win. Pipe has 4 runners here, and now that the rain has come, we will take a chance on ex-German Acambo, who has been below form on his recent starts but is now very attractively handicapped and has a good claimer on board.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

today´s N.H. racing

there are 3 jumps meetings today, with the best sport on offer at Newton Abbot, where the main feature is a valuable handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.15 CET. Ruby Walsh has his first ride in England here since his Aintree fall on Grand National day; he partners Classic Swain for champion trainer Paul Nicholls. Classic Swain, Ruby´s only mount of the day, used to have a reputation for being a bit dodgy, but there was nothing wrong with his last two victories - both over 2 miles at this track - and he also stays todays distance and although this is a very open race, we expect him to win.
Irish trainer Gordon Elliott has an excellent record at Perth and with his yard still in top form - and winning the Ebor on Wednesday- he and jockey Paul Carberry should be on the scorecard today. They have 4 runners, and it is by no means impossible that they could all win.
There is also N.H. racing at Market Rasen this evening, where the best race is the 2 1/2 miles handicap chase at 19.50. Rockiteer (Henry Daly/ Andrew Tinkler) was a recent CD winner, but third-placed Nudge and Nurdle (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Tom Molloy) can reverse the placings on 5 lbs better terms.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Beyond - Gulf Punch - Ocean Club
2. Race: Justabout - Lord Lescribaa - Cinaman
3. Race: Classic Swain - Grand Slam Hero - Passato
4. Race: Ajman - Be Ashored - Society Venue
5. Race: Folie A Deux - Misamon - Courella
6. Race: Strumble Head - Amazing Request - Song In My Heart
7. Race: Kopylova - Caheerloch - Heezagrey

group races at Sandown and Chester

after the highlights of York´s splendid Ebor meeting, today´s cards are relatively quiet for a Saturday, although there are group races for 2yo´s at Sandown and the Curragh. At the former track it is the Solario Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.35 CET, where Native Khan (Ed Dunlop/ Eddie Ahern), impressive winner at Newmarket of his only race so far, looks like starting favourite. Measuring Time (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Titus Mills (Brian Meehan/ Marton Dwyer) are also both unbeaten, but meeting stronger opposition now, and we fancy Godoklphin´s Roayh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who has been mixing it in the best company, to go well. We also expect the Godolphin team´s Long Lashes to go close in the opening listed race for fillies over a mile at 15.05; obvious dangers here are Seta (Luca Cumani/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) and the unbeaten Decorative (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson), moving up in class.
The Curragh race is the Futurity, also over 7 furlongs (a ridiculous clash) at 17.25. This event has been dominated by Aidan O´Brien and Jim Bolger in recent years and that is likely to be the case again. O´Brien saddles 4 of the 7 runners, with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh aboard Samuel Morse. He has good form, but last time was more than 7 lengths behind Glor Na Mara (Bolger/ Kevin Manning) in the Phoenix Stakes over 6 furlongs here, so the latter must be the logical selection. Also at the Curragh, the speedy Meow (David Wachman/ Murtagh) can win the 2yo listed race over 5 furlongs at 15.55, but the listed race over 1 3/4 miles at 16.25 looks more tricky. John Oxx has won this for the past two years, and now has 2 runners, with Fran Berry partnering Roses for the Lady, runner-up in last year´s Irish Oaks, but top-weight Silverhand (Noel Meade/ Colm O´Donoghue) looks very dangerous; this high-class hurdler and recent Galway winer is also pretty smart on the flat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Seta - Decorative - Long Lashes
2. Race: Native Khan - Roayh - Measuring Time
3. Race: Spanish Duke - Hanoverian Baron - Sandor
4. Race: Avertor - Judge `N Jury - Rocket Rob
5. Race: Captain Coke - Diman Waters - Panpiper
6. Race: Jehanbux - Bloodsweatandtears - Introvert
7. Race: Spensley - Laudatory - Ballinteni

Friday, August 20, 2010

rest of York (final day)

as always, the rest of the York card is also high class, with the Group Three Strensall Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.15 the main supporting feature. This looks booked for the lightly-raced Rainbow Peak (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan), who has won 4 of his 5 career starts and looks likely to be able to compete on the highest class. His latest win at Royal Ascot was particularly impressive and the form of that race has worked out well. Runner-up Kings Gambit (Tom Tate/ Jamie Spencer) was runner-up then and can chase him home again, while Goodwood winner Critical Moment (Barry and Michael Hills) is another place candidate. However Rainbow Peak should win this; he was one of the hottest favourites of the week at Royal Ascot and the same will be true today, so he is not necessarily a good bet at the likely odds, but it will still be a surprise if he is beaten.
Regardless of how the Hills runner does in that race, they can take the listed City of York Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.50 with distance specialist Red Jazz. The two Godolphin runners Skysurfers (Frankie Dettori) and Fravashi (Ted Durcan) look the biggest dangers.

Nunthorpe Stakes feature of York´ s final day

today is the fourth and final day of York´s Ebor Festival, with the Nunthorpe Stakes (Group One, 2yo and up, 5 furlongs, 16.25 CET) as the main feature. This is one of the few top races in which two-year-olds run against their elders, and they have a good record here, with Kingsgate Native the last 2yo to triumph in 2007. Now trained by Sir Michael Stoute he is in the field again with Kieren Fallon, currently riding in top form, in the saddle. Another previous winner in the line-up is Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Neil Callan), who has won it for the past two years. He pulled up lame after winning at Glorious Goodwood last time but is surprisingly back in form and it is not impossible that he can land the hat-trick over his favourite CD.
However the three to beat in our opinion and Starspangledbanner (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh), and Equiano (Barry and Michael Hills), first and second in the July Cup last time, and the mare Fleeting Spirit (Jeremy Noseda/ Frankie Dettori), whose chances would improve if any rain were to fall (as is forecast). Starspangledbanner can be regarded as the best sprinter in Europe after his last two wins at Ascot and Newmarket, but he only beat Equiano a neck last time, and today´s trip arguably favours the Hills horse.
The two 2yo´s in the field Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Frankie McDonald) and especially Stone of Folca (Jim Best/ Jimmy Quinn) must also be considered; the latter is still a maiden but has shown tremendous speed on all his races, and of course they receive lumps of weight from the older runners.
This is yet another top race, but we are hoping for some rain (the going this morning was good to firm) and make Fleeting Spirit our selection.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Rest of York (third day)

The main supporting race is the Group Two Lowther Stakes for 2yo fillies over 6 furlongs at 15.15 CET. Maqaasid (John Gosden/ Richard Hills) is the likely favourite here, having won both her starts, including the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, for which she carries a 3 lbs penalty. Margot Did (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) and Imperialistic Diva (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) finished second and fourth in a Group Three at Ascot´s July meeting, while Queen of Spain (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) is a dangerous Irish raider. Rimth (Paul Cole/ Jamie Spencer) was an easy winner of her only start, but that was back in May at Windsor. A very tricky race, but with the Easterby stable in good form we make Imperialistic Diva, who did not get a clear run last time, our each-way selection.

The listed Galtres Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 17.15 looks much more straightforward. John Oxx has an excellent record her and the Aga Khan´s Zarebiya is an obvious choice. The danger is Eldalil, second to Hibaayeb (runs earlier in the Yorkshire Oaks) at Ascot, but a flop in the Irish Oaks; this race is much easier. Ceilidh Hous (Talph Beckett/ Jim Crowly) has not run since being beten a long wa in the Oaks nd is lso dropping in class. The older horses in this race do not seem to be that strong and we think that the 3yo´s can take all the places.

The card opens with the DBC sales race for 2yo´s at 14.45, with 20 juveniles racing for 300,000 pounds (!) prize money. With 20 runners, this looks an absolute minefield for punters. Richard Hannon is a specialist for such races and has 6 runners, with stable jockey Richard Hughes on Cape to Rio, while the unbeaten Wootton Bassett (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) is another possible. There are very few horses in Aidan O´Brien´s yard bought at this sale, but Tom Sawyer (Johnny Murtagh) is one of them and he should not be overlooked, although his Irish form does not amount to much. Basically this is a race best left alone.

Ebor Festival: Yorkshire Oaks

the third day of the Ebor Festival is Ladies Day, with 3 of the 6 races restricted to fillies, and the undoubted highlight is the Yorkshire Oaks (Group One, 3+ fillies and mares, 1 1/2 miles, 16.25 CET), which is an extremely strong renewal. Even without any French or Irish runners, it is one of the best races of its kind of the year. On the face of it, 3 fillies stand out and should have the race between them.

They are the 3yo Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Hughes), winner of this year´s Oaks and Irish Oaks, and the two 4yo´s Sariska (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), who brought off the same double last season, and Midday (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), winner last time out of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

Snow Fairy was very impressive last time at the Curragh, but the ground was very heavy and form may possibly be suspect. In any case the general feeling is that this year´s classic crop may be nothing special (although the case for or against this is not still not proven). We certainly prefer the older fillies in this case. Sariska, who also needs soft ground to show her best form, has already met and defeated Midday three times, but there is very little in it and on this much faster going we would not be surprised to see Midday finally get her revenge. She seems equally effective over 10 and 12 furlongs and at Goodwood fought back gamely when headed by the smart Stacelita.

Godolphin´s two runners Flying Cloud (Ted Durcan) and Hibaayeb (Frankie Dettori) won the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2009 and this year respectively. Since then Hibaayeb started favourite in the Irish Oaks but did not go a yard on the ground and was again disappointing when only 7th in the German Oaks, Dettori reporting then that he thought she might be in season. There will be no excuses today. Flying Cloud was also below form last time, but was running over the wrong trip. We expect both these fillies to run much better today.
Of the other runners, the lightly-raced Eleanore Duse (Sir Michael Stoute/ Olivier Peslier) could run well, with the stable back in form, but needs to improve, while Meeznah (David Lanigan/ Kieren Fallon), who was second to Snow Fairy in the Oaks - and looked for a while the likely winner- and fourth in Ireland on unsuitable ground is also not out of it.

In our view the race is not as cut and dried as the betting suggests, but we still expect Midday to be returned the winner.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Two Group Two races at York

The undercard at York today features two Group Two races, the Lonsdale Cup over 2 miles at 15.15 CET and the Gimcrack Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.50. With Ask a non-runner (lame), the former race is rather substandard, but quite open. Illustrious Blue (William Knight/ Jim Crowley) put up his best performance last time to won the Goodwood Cup from Electrolyser (Clive Cox/ Philip Robinson), with the Queen´s Free Agent (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) a well-beaten fourth, but Goodwood form is notoriously unreliable at other tracks. King of Wands (John Gosden/ William Buick) has won 4 of his last 6 starts, including a listed race at Sandown over this distance from Illustrious Blue, with Opinion Poll (Michael Jarvis/ Frankie Dettori) third and Samuel (Gosden/ Eddie Ahern) fourth. Although it is possibly illogical, we go for Opinion Poll here, although some rain would be welcome.

The Gimcrack is also an open affair. Approve (William Haggas/ Ahern) must give away weight and looks pretty exposed, so we prefer Temple Meads /Ed McMahon/ Jimmy Fortune), an easy winner of the Super Sprint at Newbury over 5 furlongs, but probably equally effective over this trip. Crown Prosecutor (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) and the once-raced Shropshire (Barry and Michael Hills) must also be seriously considered.

Ebor Handicap at York

Athough only a handicap, the totesport Ebor over 1 3/4 miles at 16.25 CET at York today is the top race of York´s big August meeting. Of course it is not just an ordinary handicap - it is the most valuable handicap of the year in Europe, worth more than 200,000 pounds, much more than the Group Two races on today´s card and in fact more the most Group Ones.

The race was won last year by an Irish-trained runner ridden by star apprentice Gary Carroll, and he has again a chance with John Queally´s Elyaadi, who ran really well at Royal Ascot. He certainly appeals more than the other two Irish runners, Salute Him (Tony Martin/ Johnny Murtagh) and Dirar (Gordon Elliott/ Jamie Spencer), both of whom are badly drawn.

Last time out, Dirar was third in the Galway Hurdle and meets the winner of that race Overturn (Donald McCain/ Eddie Ahern) on much worse terms; form over hurdles does not always apply to the flat, but Overturn has been in brilliant form and is definitely one for the short list. He won the Northumberland Plate on his only flat start this season, while he is a leading fancy for the 2011 Champion Hurdle. However he is a front-runner, and although those tactics worked well at Newcastle and Galway, it will be much tougher to dominate this field.
He is likely to dispute favouritism with Martyr /Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) who has won 3 of his last 4 races and is much improved. However the same applies to several other runners, including Bernie the Bolt (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), a winner at the recent Shergar Cup meeting.

Top-weight Dangerous Midge (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) missed a group race last week to run here, but will need to put up a group race performance to win off this mark, but he does have a touch of class and his stable is now in good form. The two Godolphin runners Darley Sun (Frankie Dettori) and Sopranist (Ted Durcan) also come into the reckoning; the former was an easy winner of last season´s Cesarewitch and probably needs further, while the latter is moving up in trip but is well handicapped. The same applies to Bridge of Gold (Markus Magnusson/ George Baker) and Fortuni (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), both relatively unexposed and very dangerous.

We have now mentioned 11 of the 20 runners, but the race is so open that none of them can be left out; however we hope that at least one of the above-mentioned gets placed!

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Great Voltigeur and rest of York

The rest of the York card is also of the greatest interest, with the Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group Two) for 3yo´s over 1 1/2 miles at 15.50 CET the best supporting race. This traditional St .Leger trial is a major race on its own account, and Derby form is well represented by Rewilding (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori), not seen out since third at Epson, as well as Midas Touch (Aidan O´ Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) and Monterosso (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon), runner-up and fourth respectively at the Curragh. Monterosso has since run below that form when 7th to Buzzword in the German Derby, but he was unsuited by the track that day and will find York more to his liking. He should not be underestimated, but we expect that this race will also go to O´Brien, as Midas Touch would in our view have won at the Curragh had he been ridden differently (he was the stable´s second string that day). O´Brien also saddles Joshua Tree (Jamie Spencer) who would have a chance on his 2009 form but has not run since September. Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ Liam Jones) was strongly fancied for the Ebor but did not get into the field and runs here instead; he is in great form but this opposition is far tougher than anything he has faced so far. We expect the Irish Derby form to come out on top here, although Rewilding is an obvious danger.

The Group Three Acomb Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.15 is another top race, with 6 of the 8 runners last-time-out winners. Dream Ahead (David Slimcock/ William Buick) was a most impressive winner on his debut and may take this at the main expense of Lake Ontario (O´Brien/ Murtagh). The handicaps here are as always brutal. It may be significant that two of last year´s winners attempt to repeat their 2009 victories: Barney McGrew (Michael Dods/ Phillip Makin) over 5 furlongs at 14.45 and Royal Destination Jeremy Noseda/ Olivier Peslier) over 10 furlongs at 17.40.

With the Godolphin stable now in top form, we expect Saeed bin Suroor to win two more 2yo maidens today, at Brighton at 15.35 with Makeynn and at Kempton this evening at 20.20 with Bawaab, both with Ted Durcan aboard.

Juddmonte International opens York´ s Ebor meeting

Many connoisseurs regard York´ s Ebor meeting. which starts today, as the best flat meeting of the entire year and certainly today´s card leaves nothing to be desired in terms of quality, quantity and betting appeal. Main feature is the Group One Juddmonte International over 10 furlongs at 16.25 CET and this event promises to be one of the best races of the year. 7 of the 9 runners are Group One winners and there are several possibiities in an intriguing event.

Juddmonte is the breeding arm of Khalid Abdullah´s racing empire and have sponsored the race for 20 years but amazingly have never won it. The prince has two good prospects here in Byword (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) and Twice Over (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who were first and second in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot. Both can be counted among the top 10 furlong specialists in Europe, and we expect Byword, who possibly has still improvement to come, to confirm the Ascot form. Cavalryman (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) was last in that race but clearly unsuited by the firm ground. Conditions will be much more favourable today and we expect him to run a big race, Godolphin are really firing at the moment and their other runner Cutlass Bay (Kieren Fallon) must also be taken seriously. Both Godolphin runners were trained previously by Fabre, so he should know where he stands with Byword.

These 4 alone would guarantee a good race, but we have not yet mentioned the two most interesting runners: Rip van Winkle (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) and Dick Turpin (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes). The latter is the only 3yo in the field and comes fresh from an easy Group One win in France. The earlier view that the 3yo´s were not much good this year has had to be revised since Makfi´s win at Deauville on Sunday, and Dick Turpin was runner-up to that horse in the 2,000 Guineas so his form has been well boosted. However it is his first time he has raced beyond a mile and he is up against top distance specialists, so it will not be easy. Incidentally, the real Dick Turpin, a notorious highwayman, was hanged at the Knavesmore (now York racecourse) in 1739, so victory for his namesake would be a gift for headline writers.

Rip van Winkle hpwevr is our iea of the winner. The York race was won last season by the great Sea the Stars, and we have not forgotten that Rip van Winkle had run that superstar close in the Eclipse. He has been racing over a mile since then, but clearly gets the trip. He was just touched off by Dick Turpin´s stable companion Canford Cliffs in the Sussex Stakes last time, but today we hope to see the O´Brien stable take their revenge on Richard Hannon and take this valuable prize back to Ireland.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Return of Ruby

With the big York meeing starting tomorrow, there is no point in expecting high class flat racing today. Indeed the most interesting race is probably the hurdle race for 4yo´s at 20.20 CET at Roscommon´s mixed meeting this evening in Ireland. Ted Walsh´s Hail Caesar is the likely winner here; after an easy win at Ballinrobe he was an excellent runner-up to a Dermot Weld hotpot at Galway and meets nothing of that calibre here.

What is especially interesting is that he will be partnered by the trainer´s son Ruby, making his comeback after breaking his arm at Aintree on Grand National day. He will probably start at an unrealistic price but the main thing is to see Ruby back in action and, we hope, on a winner!

Best race in the U.K. is the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 17.00 at Kempton, with several horses in top form engaged. Both Katakosi (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and The Confessor (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) have won their last three races and have gone up in the weights accordingly. The consistent Mass Rally (John Gosden/ Willim Buick) now meets the former on 7 lbs better terms and is an obvious danger, as is Avenuesandalleyways (Ralph Beckett/ Richard Kingscote), a very easy York winner last time out.

The other afternoon is also on the all-weather, at Wolverhampton. Top event here is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.15, in which Gouray Girl (Walter Swinburn/ Eddie Ahern) makes her belated seasonal debut. She won here on her debut last year and then finished runner-up on her other 3 starts, including when beaten a head in a hot 20 runner nursery at Doncaster in November. If she is back in that form she will take a lot of beating here. For those who prefer to back runners with recent form, we recommend Arabian Mirage (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon). Bst bet at this meeting is Layali Al Arab (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), in the maiden at 17.15, with the Godolphin 2yo´s now really flying. He was beaten as a hot favourite on his recent debut at Beverley but is expected to recover those losses today.

There is also very modest racing this evening in the U.K. at Windsor and Yarmouth but, frankly, our best advice here is to keep your powder dry for the much better racing later in the week at York!

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Goldikova v Paco Boy at Deauville

The most eagerly awaited clash of the summer is the third meeting between Goldikova (F. Head/ Olivier Peslier) and Paco Boy (R. Hannon/ Richard Hughes) in this afternoon´s Group One Prix Jacques le Marois at 15.40 CET at Deauville. Despite the ludicrous ratings awarded to Workforce and Harbinger by the official handicappers on the basis of one good run, these two are the best and most consistent horses in training in Europe.

The 5yo mare Goldikova has beaten Paco Boy twice, most recently in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, where she only just held on by a neck after getting first run. Quite a few people think that Paco Boy was a bit unlucky that day and can reverse the placings now, but we firmly believe that the mare will come out on top again. She is undefeated in 4 starts at Deauville and is now going for an unprecedented 11th Group One victory. One problem could be the rainy weather and the going looks as if it will be very soft. Goldikova has won on the soft, but would not want it too heavy, while Paco Boy has shown all his best form on faster ground. In theory the big two have so much in hand of their 6 opponents (including Goldikova´s two pacemakers) that they should finish clear of the rest whatever the ground, but the two that might possibly make a race of it are Fuisse (trained by Freddie´ s sister Criquette with Stephane Pasquier in the saddle) and Makfi (Mikel Delzangles/ Christophe Sou millon), surprise winner of the 2,000 Guineas in May.

Paco Boy, assuming he goes on the ground, usually comes with a late rattle and if he comes to challenge Goldikova with 150 yards to run, we may see the most exciting finish of the season.
The main supporting feature on a strong card is the Group Two Prix Guillaume d´Ornano for 3yo´s over 2000 metres at 16.15, in which German raider Scalo (Andreas Wöhler/ Maxime Guyon) must have a decent each-way chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jackson Square - Kadou - Toss The Dice
2. Race: Seatone - Dinner`s Out - Immortal Verse
3. Race: Major Art - Split Trois - Ares Flight
4. Race: Cool Star - König Bernard - Sans Chichi
5. Race: Goldikova - Paco Boy - Fuisse
6. Race: Mellon Martini - Fallen Idol - Scalo
7. Race: Admission - Permit - Le Larron
8. Race: Marshvite - Archissime - La Macchia

Listed fillies races at Bath, Pontefract

As usual, British racing on Sunday is totally upstaged by events elsewhere - in this case Deauville- but at least Bath and Pontefract, courses not usually known for high class racing, both stage listed races for fillies, which as so often have attracted quite large fields of runners looking for that all-elusive black type. However the quality in both races is moderate and below the standard of listed races at the top meetings.

If there is a star in either of these races, it can only be Beyond Desire (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan) in the 6 furlongs event at 16.40 CET at Pontefract. She has not run since finishing second in a Group Three in Ireland in early June, easily the best form on offer here, and has run well in all her 5 career starts so far, heavily backed on each occasion. She has the top rating here, but is also penalised, and should still be good enough to win. The main dangers are Vitoria (Bryan Smart/ Richard Mullen), very consistent last season and winner of her only start this, Dever Dream (William Haggas/ Michael Hills), winner of 4 of her 5 starts this year bur facing mich better opposition, and Flambeau (Henry Candy/ Dane O `Neill) who has done nothing wrong so far.

At Bath, the race is over a mile at 17.00. This looks quite open, with the two top-rated runners, the 4yo First City (David Simcock/ Shane Kelly) and the 3yo Carioca (Marco Botti/ Andrea Atzeni) not really convincing. We can oppose them with the lightly-raced Sajjhaa (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson), Godolphin ´s Sweet Sonnet (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) and Dance East (Jeremy Noseda/ Darryll Holland). From the German point of view Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Liam Keniry) is also interesting; she ran two good races in Germany in the first part of the season, including a fifth place on the 1,000 Guineas. She is held by Dance East on her latest Goodwood form but could run well at a big price.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Handicaps at Ripon, Newmarket and Doncaster

While the classiest races are at Newbury, there are some very interesting handicaps at the the tracks with the Great St.Wilfrid handicap over 6 furlongs at 16.30 the best betting race of the day. With rain about, punters are advised to check for changes in the going and there seems certain to be several non-runners today. At the time of writing, 17 runners will line up here (out of 20 declared), and the obvious favourite is Tajneed (Dandy and Adrian Nicholls), whose stable is in great form, who loves this track (3 from 3 this CD including this race in 2008) and has the best draw (20 - it is generally assumed that the high numbers are best here).

However everybody is well aware of these points and he is likely to start at a very short price, which in a race of this nature is not recommended. Several of these runners met a fortnight ago in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, with Rileyskeepingfaith (Mick Channon/ Alan Munro) doing best of them in fourth. However we would not be surprised to see Advanced (Kevin and Amy Ryan) finish in front of him this time. Ryan also saddles the fancied Tiddliwinks (Neil Callan), while the best of Richard Fahey´s 3 runners could be top-weight Knot in Wood (Paul Hanagan). Obviously Tajneed can win this but at the likely odds we prefer Advanced.

The top race at Doncaster is also a hot handicap, this time over 7 furlongs for older horses at 17.00; this is another very open event but we like the prospects of Opus Maximus (Mark Johnston/ Royston Ffrench), who is racing at this best distance.

At Newmarket, the handicap for grey horss only at 15.45 is always a popular event, but the quality is not high; the top weights Sutton Veny (Jeremy Gask/ Steve Drowne) and Medici Time (Tim Easterby/ Ted Durcan) can possibly fight out the finish. The 6 furlongs handicap at 16.20 is a much better race, and the unbeaten top-weight Bated Breath will have to be at least listed class to win this; Gramercy (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) is also in top form and was an easy winner last week at Ascot, but we like the chances of Dafeef (Saeed bin Suroor/ Durcan), who has been in the money on all his career starts and goes well on the soft.

Hungerford Stakes and Geoffrey Freer at Newbury

A good card at Newbury this afternoon is headed by the Group Two Hungerford Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.05 CET. This is a specialist distance and in our view Ouqba (Barry and Richard Hills) should be ideally suited by the trip. The same owner has Finjaan (Marcus Tregoning/ Tagdh O´Shea) entered and he would come into the reckoning on 2009 form. However he was well beaten on his only start this season and the stable remains out of form. More danger could come from Godolphin´s Shakespearan (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who has won 4 of his 8 career starts and is capable of further improvement. On the other hand Himalya (Jeremy Noseda/ Johnny Murtagh), although admirably consistent, has only ever won once, and looks more of a "place only" bet.

The Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) over 1 mile 5 furlongs is the main supporting feature, and on form the two penalised runners Kite Wood (bin Suroor) Dettori) and Sans Frontieres (Noseda/ Murtagh) could dominate this field. Kite Wood won this last year and found the trip too far last time when well beaten in the Gold Cup; he acts well on soft ground and is therefore prefrered to Sans Frontieres, a good Group Two winner at Newmarket last time, but trying this trip for the first time.

Another good race here is the listed event for 2yo´s at 15.00, in which 4 of the 5 runners are unbeaten, and all 5 last-time-out winners. Zaidan (Clive Brittain/ Seb Sanders) won in good style at Royal Ascot but must give away 3lbs as a result; however he could still be smart enough, with Native Khan (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon) possibly the main danger.

Friday, August 13, 2010

this evening´s racing

three flat meetings in the UK this evening and a míxed meeting (four flat races, 3 over hurdles) in Ireland at Tramore. The handicap hurdle here at 20.25 CET should mainly concern the two top-weights Sherchanceit (Mary O´Connor/ Niall Madden) and Hazeymm (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara), with slight preference for the latter, whose jockey can complete a double with Augustine Leahy´ s Captain Sully in the maiden hurdle at 21.25.

In England the 5 furlongs handicap at 21.00 at Catterick has 12 runners, most of whom have run against each other repeatedly, so form on the day could be decisive. Alacity (Neil Bycroft/ Franny Norton) beat Raccoon (Ruth Carr/ Peter Mcdonald) over this CD last time, but the latter is now 6 lbs better off and can take revenge.
Frankie Dettori is at Kempton´s all-weather meeting, mainly to ride the well-bred Ragsah in the race for 2yo maiden fillies at 21.20; she has been runner-up in both her starts so far, but can make it third time lucky today.
At Newmarket, we fancy Dicky le Davoir, who won an apprentice race at Hamilton on Wednesday, can follow up quickly off the same mark on the 6 furlongs handicap at 19.00. The consistent Sarasota Sunshine (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) should start favourite for the fillies handicap at 21.10, but may find top-weight Whats Up Pussycat (David Slimcock/ Tom Queally) a tough nut to crack.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Umverti - River Ardeche - Hurricane Thomas
2. Race: Chilworth Lass - He`S The Star - Perignon
3. Race: Dunmore Boy - Orchid Street - First Class Favour
4. Race: Mutanaker - Ceoil An Aith - Maroon
5. Race: Raccoon - Alacity - Mayoman
6. Race: Ellies Image - Needy Mccredie - Regal Emperor

listed race at Newbury

3 flat meetings this afternoon in England and the best sport is on offer at Newbury, where they stage no fewer than 9 races (including the opening Arab race). Main feature is the listed event for 3yo fillies over 5 furlongs at 16.45 CET. 13 fillies line up here and, judging by the company they keep, the two of interest are Hooray (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), third in the Group Two Cherry Hinton last time, and Sweet Cecily (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), 5th in a Ascot Group Three. However both those races were over 6 furlongs, and over the minimum trip they may not be able to cope with the very speedy Marlinka (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), who has already won 3 times and last time out scored in a similar event at Vichy. Another good race here is the handicap over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 16.10, in which 7 of the 12 runners are last-time-out winners, including Fantino (J. Mackie/ David Probert); who won over CD last time, and Yemeni Princess (Brendan Powell/ Russell Kenne more), both going for a hat-trick. In a very open event we go for lightly-raced Mountain Hike (Jeremy Noseda/ Darryll Holland), but there are plenty of dangers.
The 7 furlongs handicap at 16.55 at Newcastle is another very open affair. Top-weight Ancient Cross (Mick Easterby/ Phillip Makin) is super-consistent, having finished in the money in 16 of his last 17 starts, but the handicapper keeps putting him up as a result. We prefer Rosko (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) and Game Lad (Tim Easterby/ David Allan), both runners-up over this CD last time. Mick Easterby may have better prospects with Lake Chini, partnered by the good claimer James Sullivan, in the 6 furlongs handicap at 18.05.
At Nottingham, Sparkling Smile (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) goes for a five-timer in the fillies handicap at 17.05. However she is now rated very highly and may not be able to give the weight to the equally in form Snoqualmie Girl (David Elsworth/ Richard Kingscote) and Sea of Galilee (Henry Candy( Dane O´Neill).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Buckland - Saamidd - Yair Hill
2. Race: General Synod - Colebrooke - Treasury Devil
3. Race: Lang Shining - Grande Caiman - Foxhaven
4. Race: Goodwood Starlight - Incendo - Mountain Hiker
5. Race: Hooray - Sweet Cecily - Excello
6. Race: Desert Poppy - Flouncing - Valencha
7. Race: Dark Promise - Red Intrigue - Piano
8. Race: Cape Quarter - Miss Bounty - Young Dottie

Thursday, August 12, 2010

this evening´s racing with Group Three at Leopardstown

there are 5 meetings this evening with easily the best race the mile Group Three at 20.30 CET at Leopardstown. Only 5 runners, all Irish-trained, but quite an open evnt. Beethoven (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), last year´s Dewhurst Stakes winner, drops in grade here; on his last two starts he has been well behind Canford Cliffs, but there is nothing of that calibre on today´s field. However the lightly-weighted fillies Ekdarena (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and Emulous (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) will be hard nuts to crack, while the two older horses Dandy Boy and King Jock are also no pushovers. Aidan O´Brien also means business in the 2yo maiden at 19.00, where he saddles 3 of the 9 runners. Eagle Canyon is rumoured to be one of his best juveniles and will be partnered by stable jockey Johnny Murtagh and can win at the first time of asking.
There is also N.H. racing in Ireland at Tramore, where we fancy Wikaala (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry), back over hurdles, to win at 18.40, while Pacific Ocean (JJ Mangan/ Andrew McNamara) can defy top weight in the handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 20.50.
In the U.K., Croeso Cusan (Jon Spearing/ Sophie Doyle) can take the fillies handicap at Chepstow at 19.20; all her 3 career wins, including last time out over this CD, have been with this rider on board.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ballybacka Lady - Why - Chattel House
2. Race: Eagle Canyon - Blue Cannon - Auguste Renoir
3. Race: Azaboy - Like Magic - Collingwood
4. Race: Strandfield Lady - Endless Expanse - Belle Noverre
5. Race: Beethoven - Akdarena - Emulous
6. Race: Gagnant - Boynagh Joy - Bipasha
7. Race: Truth Seeking - Mount Abora - Pinnk

Beverley, Epsom and Salisbury this afternoon

once again Salisbury hosts the best race of the day in the U.K. with the Group Three Sovereign Stakes over a mile at 17.15 CET: this has a very string field for a Group Three, headed by 7yo Pressing (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan), who has to carry a 5 lbs penalty for his Group One success in Múnich last year. This globetrotter, whose main aim is the valuable Istanbul race he has won for the past two years, is tough and reliable, but we cannot see him giving weight away to this opposition, which includes two Godolphin runners Secrecy (Frankie Dettori) and Poets Voice (Ted Durcan), Dream Eater (Andrew Balding/ Frannie Norton), 5th in the Sussex Stakes last time, and especially Pat Eddery´s Hearts of Fire (Richard Hughes), a winner in Baden-Baden last year and later Group One winner in Italy and whose three runs this season have been in the 2,000 Guineas, St.James´s Palace Stakes and the Prix Jean Prat. The really interesting in however is Mark Johnston´ s sensationally improved Sea Lord (Kieren Fallon), who has won five races since the end of May and now tackles group race company for the first time, having last time won Goodwood´s big mile handicap. His rating has gone up 29 lbs, but this is the toughest assignment he has ever faced.
Mark Johnston also has winning chances at the other two meetings this afternoon. He has two runners in the 2 mile handicap at 16.50 at Beverley, Keenes Day (Joe Fanning) and 3yo Rawnack (Silvestre de dousa). Keenes Day has a huge weight to shoulder, but is in fact quite well handicapped compared to his earlier form, and can concede the weight to his younger stable companion.
Johnston´ s candidate in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.25 at Epsom is Golden Shaheen (Greg Fairley), an easy winner last time at Newcastle over 6. However he is drawn one, which is not always an advantage here, especially when the ground is soft. Woodcote Place and Hot Spark both come into the reckoning, but if the stands rail is favoured then Mishrif (John Jenkins/ Seb Sanders), drawn 11, could run well at a big price.

Betting forecast Salisbury:
1. Race: Classic Voice - Fastada - Catalyze
2. Race: Barq - Magic Jack - Warm Memories
3. Race: Goldtrek - Silent Act - Aktia
4. Race: Sea Lord - Hearts Of Fire - Dream Eater
5. Race: Russian Rave - Miss Firefly - Dualagi
6. Race: Lombok - Broughtons Point - Abulharith

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Listed races at Salisbury and Gowran Park

Two listed races, both for fillies and mares and thus certain of a good turnout of runners looking for black type, head today´s programme. At Salisbury at 17.05 CET they go over 10 furlongs, and 7 3yo fillies face 4 older runners. This is quite an open race and Bikini Babe (Mark Johnston/ Luke Morris), who ran well at Deauville last time is our selection, even though she is held by Gallic Star (Mick Channon/ Chris Catlin) on Royal Ascot form.

Best of the older brigade should be Alsace Lorraine (James Fanshawe/ Kieren Fallon), beaten favourite in a different Ascot race, but whose earlier form reads well. Chantilly Tiffany (John Gosden/ William Buick) was a group race winner in Baden-Baden in 2008, but seems to have lost form and has not run since the spring.

The other listed race takes place in Ireland at Gowran Park´s evening meeting over 9 1/2 furlongs at 20.20. There are 15 runners here, but the overall quality is not high, and the Aga Khan´s Shareen (John Oxx/ Fran Berry), unbeaten in 3 starts this season, although moving uo in grade, could be good enough. Famous (Johnny Murtagh), one of 3 Aidan O´Brien entries, could be next best, although on latest Cork running she is just about held by Maybe Grace (Jessica Harrington/ Declan McDonough).

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Lingfield, Newton Abbot, Ffos Las and Nottingham

More all-weather racing today, this time at Lingfield, where the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.00 CET is the best betting race. My Gacho (Mark Johnston/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) could be an interesting runner here; he won 4 successive races last July/ August and has not won since and has now dropped back to his winning mark. He shares top-weight with Mishrif (John Jenkins/ William Buick), while Yankee Storm (Hugh Collingridge/ Jimmy Quinn) is going for a hat-trick here. A tricky race, with all 9 runners in with a chance, but My Gacho, who ran well last time at Goodwood, is our selection. The Johnston stable continues in excellent form and we also expect Amity (Frankie Dettori) to figure in the 3yo handicap at 18.00, with Rare Tern (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) the obvious danger.

There is jumps racing this afternoon at Newton Abbot, and here the best event is the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.45, where 5 of the 9 runners are CD winners. Classic Swain (Paul Nicholls/ AP McCoy) won a beginners chase here last time, and although this is a much better event, the 5yo is still improving and can score again.
Mark Johnston can continue on the winning trail this evening with Chilly Filly (Greg Fairley) in the 1 3/4 miles handicap for 3yo´s at 18.50 at Nottingham. Most of the runners are untested at the trip, but Chilly Filly has finished first or second on her last 5 starts and shapes as if the extra quarter-mile should be no problem. Also at Nottingham, the 5 furlongs conditions race at 20.50 has attracted some useful performers, including 10yo Les Arcs. who won the July Cup in 2006. However he has not run for 2 years, and Masta Plasta, whose team of David and Adrian Nicholls, have a great record in thse sprint events, is the selection.

David Simcock has a good record at Ffos Las and saddles two runners in the mile handicap at 21.05 there this evening, Dajen (Laura Pike) and King of Reason (Shane Kelly). Both should run well, but we have a slight preference for the improving Zero Money (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), who can complete a hat-trick.

Monday, August 09, 2010

5 meetings today

A touch of winter this afternoon, when the only racing is on the all-weather. At least Southwell stages two class 3 handicaps. The first, over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 CET, could go to bottom-weight Nave (Mark Johnston/Greg Fairley), the only 3yo in the field and a winner at Bath last time. The obvious danger is Speed Dating (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), runner-up at Kempton last week, all of whose 3 wins this year have been on the all-weather.

Top-weight Veloso (Jeremy Glover/ Dale Swift) is another all-weather specialist, but seems too high in the weights now. Johnston and Fairley could also be on the mark in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.30. His form figures are very uninspiring, but he runs his best races at this track. The Confessor (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) and Realt na Mara (Hughie Morrison/ Sanders), both unbeaten so far this season, are the dangers.

The most interesting aspect of the Wolverhampton fixture is that Godolphin are sending two 2yo´s and both of them could win. Busker (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Atjebi) can take the maiden at 15.45 and Greek Islands (Antioco Murgia), despite being still a maiden, can defy top-weight in the 2yo handicap an hour later.

Some of the top jockeys - Hughes, Dettori, Moore - will be in action at Windsor this evening. Richard Hughes has the best record here, and despite yesterday´s unexpected defeat in Ireland, he can win two more races on Richard Hannon-trained 2yo´s - Invincible Ridge at 18.40 and Avonmore half an hour later. Ryan Moore´s best chance is Marco Botti´s Rocket Rob in the 6 furlongs handicap at 19.40, who is overdue for a win after a series of placed efforts.

Two each-way bets at Thirsk this evening are veteran Nuit Sombre (Geoff Harker/ Matt O ´Connell) in the selling handicap at 19.30 and Kilt Rock (Richard Guest/ Royston Ffrench) in the 3yo mile handicap at 20.00.
In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting this evening at Ballinrobe, with 4 flat races and 3 over hurdles. Most interesting event is the 2 1/2 mile hurdle at 20.50, with some useful performers entered. Beau Michael and Glenstal Abbey are both recent winners over fences, but elso good enough over the sticks, but the one we like is Nicanor (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry). He won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2006, and although he had disappointed a few times since, has the best rating here and should still be capable of winning a race of this nature.

5 meetings today

a touch of winter this afternoon, when the only racing is on the all-weather. At least Southwell stages two class 3 handicaps. The first, over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 CET, could go to bottom-weight Nave (Mark Johnston/Greg Fairley), the only 3yo in the field and a winner at Bath last time. The obvious danger is Speed Dating (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), runner-up at Kempton last week, all of whose 3 wins this year have been on the all-weather. Top-weight Veloso (Jeremy Glover/ Dale Swift) is another all-weather specialist, but seems too high in the weights now. Johnston and Fairley could also be on the mark in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.30. His form figures are very uninspiring, but he runs his best races at this track. The Confessor (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) and Realt na Mara (Hughie Morrison/ Sanders), both unbeaten so far this season, are the dangers.
The most interesting aspect of the Wolverhampton fixture is that Godolphin are sending two 2yo´s and both of them could win. Busker (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Atjebi) can take the maiden at 15.45 and Greek Islands (Antioco Murgia), despite being still a maiden, can defy top-weight in the 2yo handicap an hour later.

Betting forecast Southwell:
1. Race: Boundaries - Sirens - Silent Blessing
2. Race: Nave - Speed Dating - Veloso
3. Race: Boogie Waltzer - Star Twilight - Socceroo
4. Race: Wulfrida - Dolphina - Repealed
5. Race: The Confessor - Esprit De Midas - Academy Blues
6. Race: Gracie`S Gift - Albero Di Giuda - Tenancy

Sunday, August 08, 2010

4 group races at the Curragh

The Curragh stages one of its best meetings of the year today with the Group One Phoenix Stakes for 3yo´s over 6 furlongs at 17.15 CET. Unfortunately two of the more fancied candidates Al Aasifh and Dunboyne Express have been scratched, leaving just 7 runners and the race looks a match between Aidan O´Brien´s entry of 4 runners and Richard Hannon´ s Strong Suit (Richard Hughes). O´Brien has won this 10 times in the last 12 years and his main weapon would appear to be Zoffany, the mount of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh, who has won 4 of his 5 starts. His only blip came in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he finished more than 8 lengths behind Strong Suit, who is regarded as the best of Hannon´s extremely strong juvenile team. In theory then Strong Suit should win, but we can expect Zoffany to give him much more of a race this time.

The Group Two Debutante Stakes at 16.45 for 2yo fillies has also been an O´Brien benefit in recent years and he saddles 4 fillies now with Murtagh on board Together. However she does not have much in hand of Laughing Lashes (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry), while Kevin Prendergast, whose 2yo´s are in excellent form, could upstage them both with Seeharn (Declan McDonough), the only unbeaten filly in the field.

One race O´Brien and Murtagh should certainly win is the Group Two Royal Whip over 10 furlongs at 15.45, where Fame and Glory looks unbeatable. Last year´s Irish Derby winner and currently favourite for the "Arc" (after Harbinger´s injury) is accompanied by two pacemakers in the tiny field and should not be hard pressed to hold off Precious Gem (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Choose Me (Prendergast/ McDonough).

The final group race here is the Phoenix Sprint at 18.15 which looks much more competitive. Our selection here is Snaefell (Mike Halford/ Sean Foley), with the blinkers back on; any more rain would improve his chances.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spin - Mountain Woman - Poinsettia
2. Race: Fame And Glory - Precious Gem - Choose Me
3. Race: Binocular - High Treason - Jigalo
4. Race: Together - Laughing Lashes - Seeharn
5. Race: Strong Suit - Dunboyne Express - Zoffany
6. Race: Award Ceremony - Pencil Hill - Bold Thady Quill
7. Race: Rain Delayed - Duff - Snaefell
8. Race: Dawn Eclipse - Blue Dahlia - Dreamalittledream

Leicester, Redcar and Windsor

Very poor racing at today´s 3 U.K. meetings and it is surprising to see Ryan Moore riding at Windsor´s modest fixture when there are Group One races in France and Ireland. The main reason for his presence is to partner Sir Michael Stoute´s Entitled in the fillies maiden at 17.30 CET. Entitled has been favourite for both her starts so far, but has finished second both times; now stepped up to 10 furlongs this well-bred filly is far from being one of Stoute´s stars, but a win would boost her paddock value and she should manage it this time. Moore can follow up in the 6 furlongs handicap half an hour later on top-weight Panpiper, trained by his father Gary.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Petomic - Mr Harmoosh - Jeremiah
2. Race: Ceffyl Gwell - King Of The Desert - Homeboy
3. Race: The Sydney Arms - Ishbelle - Whisper Louise
4. Race: Sandy Shaw - Seattle Speight - Choral Festival
5. Race: Entitled - Ellbeedee - Madonna Dell`Orto
6. Race: Dvinsky - Learo Dochais - Panpiper




At Leicester, we expect Ertikaan (Michael Jarvis/ Richard Hills) to take the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.20; he looks to be better than a handicapper. We are also interested in Docofthebay (Jeremy Glover/ Neil Callan) in the 10 furlongs handicap half an hour later. He has been expensive to follow and has in fact not won for 3 years, but he has come down a lot in the weights and it is a long time since he faced such poor opposition. His best trip seems to be a mile, but if he gets the extra two furlongs today he must hold a good chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Azrael - Harry Luck - Restless Bay
2. Race: Daddy`S Gift - Timeteam - Blue Noodles
3. Race: Ertikaan - Addictive Dream - Pirate`S Song
4. Race: Scamperdale - Hel`S Angel - King`S Masque
5. Race: Gojeri - Dancing Jest - Golden Rock
6. Race: Swansea Jack - Watch Chain - Black Baccara




The main feature at Redcar is also a 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.40, and here we hope to see top-weight Barren Brook (Mick Easterby/ James Sullivan) atone for a narrow defeat last time at Doncaster, when he did not get the run of the race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Najoum - Galloping Queen - Bonita Star
2. Race: Timocracy - Guga - Castlebury
3. Race: Emeralds Spirit - Green For Luck - Military Call
4. Race: Barren Brook - Fly Silca Fly - Pepper Lane
5. Race: Cono Zur - Ra Junior - Miami Gator
6. Race: Before The War - Plus Ultra - Ella Grace
7. Race: Parisian Dream - He`S A Humbug - Braille
8. Race: Divertimenti - Yungaburra - Dream Express

Saturday, August 07, 2010

Group races at Haydock and Newmarket

The two group races at Haydock and Newmarket are the two classiest races of the day, even though the Shergar Cup may grab the headlines. At Haydock, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes over 10 furlongs at 15.50 CET looks very open, although Godolphin´s Rio de la Plata (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) is the likely favourite after winning twice (including a dead-heat); on his 2yo form he would be a good thing, but his latest efforts were not quite up to that standard. The 3 3yo´s in the field all look dangerous- Green Moon (Harry Dunlop/ Neil Callan), Fallen Idol (John Gosden/ William Buick) and I can Dream (David Wachman/ Darryll Holland), but now that the rain has come, we prefer the oldest horse in the field, the 6yo mare Les Fazzani (Kevin Ryan/ Paul Hanagan), who always goes well here and whose form when 4th here in the Lancahire Oaks has been well boosted since.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Shubaat - Comedy Act - Zigato
2. Race: Desert Creek - What`S Up Pussycat - Our Joe Mac
3. Race: Rio De La Plata - Les Fazzani - Green Moon
4. Race: Pires - Hot Prospect - Breakheart
5. Race: Jamesway - Boundaries - Dingle View
6. Race: Novellen Lad - The Nifty Fox - Fathsta
7. Race: Rainy Night - Feeling Fresh - Volito
8. Race: Captain Scooby - Two Turtle Doves - Scrapper Smith




The Sweet Solera Stakes at 15.50 at Newmarket is for 2yo fillies over 7 furlongs, and all 9 runners are winners, 3 of them still unbeaten. Of these latter, White Moonstone (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) could be the most interesting; she won her maiden at Ascot in very promising style. Khor Sheed (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), who won a listed race here over 6 furlongs, looks the biggest danger. The race is sponsored by German Thoroughbred Marketing, who are mounting a major PR initiative for Grman racing and breeding at Newmarket this afternoon; the BBAG sales company and Baden Racing are also sponsors.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Psychic Ability - Rumble Of Thunder - Kindest
2. Race: White Moonstone - Khor Sheed - Crying Lightening
3. Race: Sunraider - Glen Shiel - Oratory
4. Race: Abtasaamah - New River - Malacca Straits
5. Race: Pink Palace - Vibrant Force - Western Pearl
6. Race: Cotillion - Plymouth Rock - Bollin Felix
7. Race: Cloud`S End - Blue Lyric - Amethyst Dawn

Shergar Cup at Ascot

The Shergar Cup with 6 races - all valuable handicaps. run at Ascot this afternoon- is an interesting innovation and with some top jockeys from all over the world seems certain to attract a large crowd today. Richard Hughes, in tremendous form this season, was the individual winner last year and also captained the victorious Irish team, and will be hoping for similar results this time; his team colleagues are Pat Smullen and Fran Berry.

The British team is captained by Hayley Turner, who is backed up by Jim Crowley and Alan Munro, while Europe is represented by Olivier Peslier (captain), Christophe Soumillon and Umberto Rispoli, and the rest of the world by Anton Marcus, Luke Nolan and Yasunari Iwata. All are top jockeys, though the rest of the world riders may be slightly handicapped as they have no experience of the track. One idea which does not seem so good is that all the jockeys will be wearing their team colours (rather than owners´) which may make the races difficult to follow, especially for the course commentator.

All 6 races look very open, and the trainers to follow could be Mark Johnston, who has multiple entries in some races, and Andrew Balding, while previous winners here are Strategic Mount, who won the 1 1/2 mile at 17.30 CET in 2007 and 2008, and Benandonner, who took the mile race at 16.20 way back in 2007. For the record, our very tentative selections are: Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Soumillon) in the 5 furlongs dash at 15.10, Opera Gal (Balding/ Rispoli) in the 3yo 1 1/2 mile race at 15.45, Vitznau (Richard Hannon/ Peslier) in the mile handicap at 16.20 (holds ex-German Aspectus on latest Goodwood form), top-weight Lady Eclair (Johnston/ Marcus) in the 2 miler at 16.55, Emerging Artist (Johnston/ Hughes) in the 1 1/2 handicap at 17.30 and Bella Swan (Walter Swinburn/ Hughes) in the 6 furlongs race for 3yo´s at 18.05.

Bookmakers make Europe narrow favourites to win from Ireland, while Peslier and Hughes are the two favourits for the individual title.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Secret Asset - Prohibit - Monsieur Joe
2. Race: Yashrid - Opera Gal - Life And Soul
3. Race: Vitznau - Benandonner - Marajaa
4. Race: Lady Eclair - Bernie The Bolt - Colloquial
5. Race: Emerging Artist - Seeking The Buck - Strategic Mount
6. Race: Gramercy - Gene Autry - Star Rover

Friday, August 06, 2010

2 listed races this evening in Tipperary

The cards at today´s 6 British meetings are nothing special, but there is better racing in Ireland, with two listed races this evening at Tipperary. Rain Delayed (Ger Lyons/ Keagan Latham) carries top weight in the 5 furlongs race at 19.05 CET, while Invincible Ash (Mike Halford/ Gary Carroll) seems much improved and has won his last two races, both over 6 furlongs. Under the circumstances Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Pat Smullen), who has been running wthout much success in much better races, gets the vote. Aidan O´Brien has won the last two runnings of the 71/2 furlongs event for 2yo´s at 19.10, and saddles two runners with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh on Jackaroo, a beaten favorite last time at Royal Ascot; he can recover those losses now, although Kevin Prendergast´s Snow Watch (Declan McDonough) could be a big danger. There is N.H. racing at Wexford, where we expect Fosters Cross (Tom Mullins/ Davy Russell) to win the chase at 20.30; he had no chance in the big hurdles race at Galway last week, but this looks much easier and he also has decent form over fences.

The best horse running in the UK today is Godolphin´s Chabal (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan), who faces 5 opponents in the 10 furlongs conditions race for 3yo´s at 20.50 at Newmarket this evening. He was an easy winner of the Sandown Classic Trial (tho´ subsequently disqualified) before starting favourite for the Dante. He flopped there behind Cape Blanco, but that form is probably still good enough. Smart handicapper Wigmore Hall (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) is next best, although Champagne Style (Brian Meehan/ William Buick), who went all over the place at Ascot last time, can be expected to run much better now fitted with first-time blinkers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bad Romance - Jamesie - Eastern Light
2. Race: Sole Power - Rain Delayed - Invincible Ash
3. Race: Partner - Bold Thady Quill - Bank On Black
4. Race: Jackaroo - Brittany - Triple Eight
5. Race: Headford Lady - Paris Fame - Fastnowfast
6. Race: Gra Geal Mo Chroi - Star Links - My St Clair
7. Race: Cornakill - Picture Perfect - Headford View

Thursday, August 05, 2010

8 meetings today

Once again, plenty of racing but mainly at a low level. However there is one exception, the Group Three Ballyroan Stakes at 20.05 CET at Leopardstown´s evening meeting. Only 5 runners here however, as Dermot Weld´s Profound Beauty (Pat Smullen) has scared off most of the opposition. The 6yo is being prepared for the Melbourne Cup, so this trip of 1 1/2 miles is on the sharp side, but she should still outclass thse opponents, who are headed by Aidan O´Brien´s two 3yo´s Awake the Dawn (Johnny Murtagh), having his first race for 11 months, and Snow Blizzard (Seamus Heffernan). The best race at Haydock this afternoon is the 3yo mile handicap at 16.40. Beauchamp Yorker (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) is an interesting runner here. he won his only start, a decent Newbury maiden way back in October. Uphold(Barry Hills/ Robert Winston) is another very lightly raced colt and won his only start this season, while Secretive (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and Highland Knight (Andrew Balding/ F ranny Norton) must also be considered.

The cards at Yarmouth, Brighton, and Folkestone and Bath this evening are all very modest, even Sandown´s evening meeting is pretty low-key, as is Sligo´s all hurdles card in Ireland. Mervyn Torrens does well with his German-breds and possibly Macidoni (BJ Cooper) has a chance in the hurdles handicap at 20.15 at the last-named meeting, even though he has not run since March.

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Wednesday´s racing

Once again, plenty of racing, but all at a very low level. The best race of the day is the 1 1/2 mile handicap at Pontefract at 16.40 CET with 7 runners, 3 of them trained by Mark Johnston. His first string would appear to be Chilly Filly (Joe Fanning), who has been first or second all four starts since 2009 and is still nicely handicapped. The two top-weights Highland Glen (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) and Precision Break (Paul Cole/ Jimmy Quinn) ran badly last time out - albeit in better company- so the main danger could be Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Mullen). As usual Mark Johnston has runners all over and he could also on the mark at Brighton with Licence to Kill (Kieren Fallon) in the mile handicap at 16.30. This is a very open race, and Conor Dore´s two runners LastkingofScotland (Hayley Turner) and Kipchak (Liam Keniry) must be respected, as well as CD winner Cheam Forever (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), who seems to be coming back to form, and Kavachi representi ng the powerful combination of Gary Moore and his son Ryan.

There are only 6 runners in the 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at Newcastle at 16.20, but iti is still quite tricky. Top-weight Bronze Beau (Lydia Stubbs/ James Sullivan) is very consistent and should be thereabouts; he finished in front of both Sharp Eclipse (Kevin Ryan( Paul Hanagan) and Bossy Kitty (Nigel Tinkler/ Silvestre de Sousa) at Doncaster recently, but Sharp Eclipse was unlucky that day and may be able to reverse the form. The 7 furlongs handicap half an hour later looks more straightforward and should mainly concern the two last-time out winners Rosko (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) and Rasselas (David Nicholls/ Billy Cray).

At Kempton this evening Andrew Balding and David Probert can land a double in the 3yo handicaps at 21.05 and 21.35 with Elvira Madigan and Tartan Trip respectively, though there is plenty of opposition in both races, while Willie Musson´s Broughtons Point (Jamie Mackay) can follow up his recent CD victory by taking the stayers handicap at 20.50 at Yarmouth; Barney Curley´s Allanit (Micky Fenton) runs here under topweight, but the ex-Schlenderhan runner has shown very little so far in England - which may not mean too much with this trainer.
In Ireland there is evening racing at Sligo, and Dermot Weld, who is enjoying a tremendous season, can land a double here with Catalpa Sail in the opening 2yo maiden at 19.00 and Stroke of Love in the 3yo fillies handicap at 20.30, both partnered by stable jockey Pat Smullen.

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Tuesday´s racing

Tuesday is often the weakest day of the week, and so it is today, with very modest sport on offer at Catterick and Chepstow this afternoon and Southwell (all-weather) this evening as well as jumps racing in the evening from Ffos Las in Wales and Roscommon in Ireland. An interesting runner at Catterick is Campos (Shane Kelly) in the 2yo maiden at 15.00 CET, who is trained in Ireland by Tommy Stack.

As it is his only runner here, one must assume that he is serious about winning. There are only 4 runners in the 1 13/4 mile handicap at 16.30 here; Alan Swinbank has won this race 3 times in the past 4 years and he now saddles Sir Royal (Tony Eaves), whose main opponent should be Bergonzi(Howard Johnson/ Paul Mulrennan), who won here over 2 miles last time.

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes continue to carry all before them and could be in for another good afternoon at Chepstow. Miss Dutee in the 2yo handicap at 16.15 and Our Drama Queen in the fillies handicap at 17.45 have obvious chances, and even Magical Star, although she has shown very little so far, could get placed in the opening 2yo maiden at 15.15; Hughes can also score on Jeremy Noseda´s Advertisement at 17.15, who is overdue for a win.

The best race at Southwell this evening is the 5 furlongs handicap at 20.30, which looks quite open. Lucky Numbers (Paul Green/ James Sullivan) won last time and can perhaps follow up at the expense of Captain Carey (Malcolm Saunders/ Tom McLaughlin), who was not beaten far in a hotter race at the Curragh last time.
Tony McCoy has a full book of rides at Ffos Las this evening and should win a couple of races, while in Ireland the maiden hurdle at 19.15 at Roscommon, despite a huge field, should mainly concern Northern Rocker and Paintmaker who were third and fourth last week in a better race at Galway.

Monday, August 02, 2010

Ireland today

Two meetings in Ireland this afternoon, an all-hurdles card at Cork and a mixed meeting (5 flat races, two over hurdles and a bumper) at Naas. Aidan O´Brien saddles two runners in the 2yo maiden at the latter course, Lake Ontario with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh and Outrider (Seamus Heffernan) but we are more interested in the lovely Lacy Briefs (Kevin Prendergast/ Chris Hayes); the 2yo´s from this yard are currently in great form.

The hurdles race here at 16.50 can go to Pom Flyer (Francis Flood/ Barry Geraghty), who showed improved form to win last time out and can score again in slightly better company. Flood can also be on the scorecard at Cork with Slievecorragh (Marc Walsh) in the 2 1/4 mile race at 17.05, although he has been off the track since April. The 3 miler here at 16.35 can go to Ainama (Boots and Slippers Madden); the ex-Nicky Henderson performer has the best form and highest rating in the race, but has not run since the Punchestown Festival in April.

Ripon, Newton Abbot, Windsor and Carlisle

Very little to get excited about at today´s four meetings in the U.K. Arguably the best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.45 CET at Ripon, which should go to Tim Easterby´s Midnight Martini (David Allan), winner of a valuable sales race last autumn and seemingly well handicapped against mainly exposed rivals, of whom oldtimer Eccusez Moi (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald) is possibly the most dangerous.

Most interesting event at Newton Abbot´s N.H. meeting is the novice handicap hurdle at 16.30. Four of the 8 runners are last-time-out winners, but we prefer Marc Aurele (Paul Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon), runner-upat Bangor last time. An hour later, two German-breds run in the handicap hurdle, but while top-weight Vacario (Marc Gillard/ Tom Phelan) seems to be out of form, Olivino (Bernard Llewellyn/ Isabel Tompsett) is consistent and should be in the money.
Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are usually the team to follow at Windsor´s Monday evening meetings, and with their 2yo´s continuing to carry all before them, Native Picture should win the fillies maiden at 19.10. They also have chances with Our Boy Barrington at 20.10 and Bold Tie an hour later.

Mark Johnston continues to fire in winners all over the country and can take the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 20.55 at Carlisle with top-weight Skyfire (Royston Ffrench), who is in good form and was runner up last time in better company at Nedwmarket over a furlong shorter.

Sunday, August 01, 2010

Goldikova´s tenth Group One?

by far the best horse racing today in Europe is the magnificient Goldikova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) who attempts to win her tenth Group One by taking the Prix Rothschild at 15.40 CET at Deauville for the third year running. On paper form she can hardly lose. Elusive Wave (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Ioritz Mendizibal) was runner-up to her last year, and can perhaps fill the same spot today, but Music Show (Mick Channon/ Richard Hughes) is a dangerous 3yo who could be a big problem for the favourite. It is hard to imagine the German runner Fabiana (Andreas Löwe/ Maxime Guyon) playing a prominent role here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: City Veux - Spectacle Du Mars - Sunmoon Royale
2. Race: Khawatim - Katerini - Khawatim
3. Race: Semos - Lochinver - Kavango
4. Race: Up and Coming - Kerno - Derison
5. Race: Goldikova - Music Show - Rainfall
6. Race: Lovelight - Distalino - Szerelem
7. Race: Lisselan Gardens - Electric Roi - Dream Land
8. Race: Chamir - Pure Land - Damozane
9. Race: La Biriquina - La Rogerais - Admiratif

group race at Cork and final day at Galway

today marks the final day of Galway´s big summer meeting, with Dermot Weld once again the leading trainer (for the 26th time! by a huge margin. He can add to his score today with Prince Erik (Robbie Power) in the beginners chase at 15.20 CET. Main event today is a valuable handicap chase at 16.55 which looks wide open with 15 runners; Echo Bob (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) is a very tentative suggestion.
However the top action in Ireland today is down south at Cork, with the Group Three Give Thanks Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 17.10. She´s Our Mark (Pat Flynn/ DM Grant) looks the best of the older brigade, but we expect the 3yo´ to dominate, with John Oxx´ Aga-Khan -owned pair Zarebiya (Fran Berry) and Karasiyra (Niall McCullough) holding good chances, together with Awe Inspiring (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) and Sense of Purpose (Weld/ Pat Smullen).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tom Sawyer - Declan`S Warrior - Katla
2. Race: Bobskier - Beart - Zvonareave
3. Race: Celerina - Flash Mcgahon - Patrickswell
4. Race: St Moritz - Famous - Gan Amhras
5. Race: She`S Our Mark - Zarebiya - Karasiyra
6. Race: Lough Ferrib - Cannot Give - Barndeh
7. Race: Palm Ridge - Slade - Purple Land

listed races at Newbury and Chester

today´s racing obviously cannot compare to the excellent sport on offer at Goodwood last week, but there are still some decent events, including listed races at both Newbury and Chester.
At Newbury the race over 1 1/2 miles for fillies and mares at 17.30 CET ties in with classic form, as Pipette (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) was runner-up to subsequent dual Oaks winner Snow Fairy when last seen in May; in the same race Wedding March (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) finished last, but the stable is now in much better form. Meanwhile Pachattack (Gerard Butler/ Tom Queally) made all to beat last week´s Munich winner Lady Jane Digby at Newcastle last time, but must now a shoulder a penalty, and Gallic Star (Mick Channon/ Chris Catlin) was third to Hibaayeb - expected to win today´s German Oaks - in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.
The race at Chester is over 6 furlongs at 16.30, and Kevin Ryan with 3 runners has a good chance; jockey bookings suggest that Our Jonathan (Neil Callan) is the one to be on, even though he has not run since April. Global City (bin Suroor/ Daragh O´Donohoe) could be the main danger.
There is also N.H. racing at Market Rasen with some competitive fields, and Tony MCoy - as usual - looks the jockey to follow with several fancied rides.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Gallego - Muftarres - William`s Way
2. Race: Laconicos - Sula Two - Dashing Doc
3. Race: Murbeh - Cai Shen - Moriarty
4. Race: Whodathought - Shewalksinbeauty - Royal Opera
5. Race: Gallic Star - Pipette - Pachattack
6. Race: Desert Poppy - Equuleus Pictor - Cape Royal
7. Race: Sunarise - Granite Girl - Now What