Ebor Festival: Yorkshire Oaks

the third day of the Ebor Festival is Ladies Day, with 3 of the 6 races restricted to fillies, and the undoubted highlight is the Yorkshire Oaks (Group One, 3+ fillies and mares, 1 1/2 miles, 16.25 CET), which is an extremely strong renewal. Even without any French or Irish runners, it is one of the best races of its kind of the year. On the face of it, 3 fillies stand out and should have the race between them.

They are the 3yo Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Hughes), winner of this year´s Oaks and Irish Oaks, and the two 4yo´s Sariska (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), who brought off the same double last season, and Midday (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), winner last time out of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

Snow Fairy was very impressive last time at the Curragh, but the ground was very heavy and form may possibly be suspect. In any case the general feeling is that this year´s classic crop may be nothing special (although the case for or against this is not still not proven). We certainly prefer the older fillies in this case. Sariska, who also needs soft ground to show her best form, has already met and defeated Midday three times, but there is very little in it and on this much faster going we would not be surprised to see Midday finally get her revenge. She seems equally effective over 10 and 12 furlongs and at Goodwood fought back gamely when headed by the smart Stacelita.

Godolphin´s two runners Flying Cloud (Ted Durcan) and Hibaayeb (Frankie Dettori) won the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2009 and this year respectively. Since then Hibaayeb started favourite in the Irish Oaks but did not go a yard on the ground and was again disappointing when only 7th in the German Oaks, Dettori reporting then that he thought she might be in season. There will be no excuses today. Flying Cloud was also below form last time, but was running over the wrong trip. We expect both these fillies to run much better today.
Of the other runners, the lightly-raced Eleanore Duse (Sir Michael Stoute/ Olivier Peslier) could run well, with the stable back in form, but needs to improve, while Meeznah (David Lanigan/ Kieren Fallon), who was second to Snow Fairy in the Oaks - and looked for a while the likely winner- and fourth in Ireland on unsuitable ground is also not out of it.

In our view the race is not as cut and dried as the betting suggests, but we still expect Midday to be returned the winner.