the Galway Festival at Ballybrit ends tomorrow but today there are once again some very hot races, with a 7 furlongs handicap at 17.00 CET the most valuable event. Several of these have already run at the meeting, including Ask Jack (PG Murphy/ Chris Hayes) an easy winner over a mile on Tuesday, while Fit the Cove (Harry Rogers/ Willie Supple) won this last year but is now a 10yo and cannot be recommended on recent form. Dermot Weld, almost certain to be leading trainer at the meeting for the 26th time, saddles Broad Meaning (Pat Smullen) and this CD winner, with first time blinkers, is our selection. Weld also has good chances with Gentleman Jeff (Paul Townend) in the maiden hurdle at 15.35 and McMonagle (Smullen) in the 2yo handicap at 16.30, but his Honey of a Kitten (Smullen) will have to step on on his debut form if he is to defeat Enchanted Forest (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) and Hasty Katie (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) in the 2yo maiden at 17.30. Two ex-German hors es Isabellareine (Mervin Torrens/ DM Grant) and Schelm (Ronnie O´Leary/ Emmett McNamara) could both go well in the 2 mile handicap at 18.00, while Manhattan Boy (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) also has a decent each-way chance in the handicap hurdle at 15.55.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Baracas - Gentleman Jeff - Dumitas
2. Race: King Of Redfield - Swiftmarc - Manhattan Boy
3. Race: Mcmonagle - Suntan - Act Of Love
4. Race: Ask Jack - Broad Meaning - Miss Eze
5. Race: Enchanted Forest - Hasty Katie - In Good Voice
6. Race: Total Excitement - Echua - Mr Bones
7. Race: Anderson Mcauley - Sparkling Tara - Masdar
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Galway Festival: day six
Glorious Goodwood: final day
today is the fifth and final day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting with another high class card, with the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 1/4 miles at 16.05 CET as the main feature. With 7 runners, this is an excellent race, with two strong French fillies in the line-up, Stacelita (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon) and the Aga Khan´s Rosanara (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Gerald Mossé). Stacelita, who has a German pedigree, has only ever lost twice - in the "Arc" behind Sea the Stars and this year behind Goldikova - no disgrace there, but she would possibly prefer softer going. She was an easy winner last year on soft going of the Prix de Diane, in which Rosanara finished runner-up this time. Both are very dangerous but Henry Cecil´s Midday (Tom Queally) is the likely favourite; she won this race last year and also took the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mare Turf. The likely fast ground should play to the strengths of front-runner Barshiba (David Elsworth/ Hay ley Turner), moving up in grade after winning the Lancashire Oaks last time, while ex-German Antara (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) should also go well, but looks held on Royal Ascot form by Strawberry Daiquiri (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore). A fascinating race, but probably one to watch rather than to to bet on.
The big betting race - not only of today but of the whole meeting - is the Stewards Cup, a 6 furlongs handicap at 16.40 with 28 runners and a ferociously difficult race to sort out. Many of the horses have run repeatedly against each other and luck in running is always the deciding factor. The draw could also be significant, and history suggests that middle to high numbers have an advantage, so we shall ignore any horse drawn less than 12 (although top-weight Knot in Wood(Richard Fahey/ Barry McHugh), who has run well in this event for the last 3 years, should never be underestimated).
Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) won this race last year and is well drawn in 25, but from a handicapping point of view faces a tougher task this time. We would prefer at the likely odds the stable´s other runner Run for the Hills (Hayley Turner). David Nicholls, a specialist for these big sprints, has 3 runners, of which we prefer Evens and Odds (Billy Cray), while Richard Fahey has 5, of whom we like Prime Exhibit (Dean Swift) best. Kevin Ryan, another specialist, saddles 3 and we like his daughter Amy´s mount Advanced best of these. Tom Dascome´s pair Noverre to Go (Richard Kingscote) and Johnny Mudball (Seb Sanders) must also be considered. Sir Michael Stoute, who rarely has runners in sprint handicaps, saddles Enact (Ryan Moore) and he must come on to the short list. However our main fancies are Rileyskeepingfaith (Mick Channon/ Richard Hughes) and Palace Moon (William Knight/ Kieren Fallon), runner-up last time over 7 furlongs at Newmarket and possibly better suite d by this trip.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wadnaan - Rock N Roll Ransom - Valiant Knight
2. Race: Sea Lord - Treadwell - Desert Myth
3. Race: Midday - Stacelita - Rosanara
4. Race: Genki - Enact - Palace Moon
5. Race: Captain Bertie - Pausanias - The Mongoose
6. Race: Eucharist - Majestic Myles - Bahamian Sunset
7. Race: Truism - Peponi - Kilburn
Friday, July 30, 2010
Deauville starts today
The big Deauville summer meeting starts today, when the main feature is a listed race over 3000 metres at 15.35 CET. Three of the 11 runners are trained in Germany - Tarkheena Prince (Christian von der Recke/ Christophe Soumillon), La Tournesol (Ralf Rohne/ Flavien Prat), of whom the last-named probably has the best chance, but they face a stiff task against the locals and also against English raider Swingkeel (John Dunlop/ Olivier Peslier). Best of the French should be Americain (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Gerald Mossé ) but Watar (Freddie Head/ Davy Bonilla) could also be dangerous; he was a very promising young stayer in 2008 but has been off the track now for 21 months. If he is anywhere near his 2008 form, he could well win this.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Halowin - Hung Parliament - Trevieres
2. Race: Nitza - Ushnika - Platine Rose
3. Race: Kermiyan - Fred Lalloupet - Time Prisoner
4. Race: Birzali - Vertana - Grand Duc
5. Race: Americain - Shawnee Saga - Watar
6. Race: Hamilton Blue - La Blue Hill - Barefoot`s Park
7. Race: Salomo - Therefore - Ordenstreuer
8. Race: Singapore Speed - Meridian Line - Dawaes
Galway Festival: day five
The big Galway meeting also continues today and although he did not win a race yesterday, Dermot Weld remains very much the trainer to follow. Natural High (Pat Smullen) is his candidate in the main feature, a handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 19.50 CET and is likely to start a warm favourite; he has won 3 of his career starts, including at this meeting last year, and is probably much better than a handicapper. Obviously there are plenty of dangers, headed by Laughing Boy (Willie Mullins/ Gary Carroll) and Aladdins Cave (Colm Murphy/ PB Beggy). It is quite possible that Weld´s debutant Manacor (Smullen) can win the 2yo maiden at 18.40, but we do not fancy his Raffaello Santi (Smullen) so much in the 3yo maiden at 20.25; Aidan O´Brien has 3 entered here and it looks as if Falcon Flight, the choice of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh, and who has only run once - when third last October - could be something special, as he has been entered in some top races.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kalellshan - Down The Dale - Carutomark
2. Race: Manacor - When Not Iff - Unlikely Hero
3. Race: King Ali - Ballylanigan - Ah Ya Boy Ya
4. Race: Natural High - Aladdins Cave - Laughing Boy
5. Race: Quest For Gold - Falcon Flight - Battleoftrafalgar
6. Race: Days Ahead - Lady L - Elusive Art
7. Race: Salute Him - Pointilliste - Myrine
Glorious Goodwood: day four
The Glorious Goodwood meeting continues today with no rain expected and the going good to firm. This afternoon´s main event is the Group Two Richmond Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 17.00 CET. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have been monopolising the top juvenile races this year and have the obvious favourite here in the unbeaten Libranno, who carries a 3 lbs penalty for winning the Group Two July Stakes last time.
He was not regarded as one of the stable´s top 2yo´s but has done nothing wrong so far, and seems to be much better than his connections realised. Marine Commando (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) and Satin Love (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) are also both unbeaten, but have only run in minor races and need to step up considerably if they are to trouble Libranno.
The card opens with the Group Three Glorious Stakes over 1 1/2 miles for older horses and this has attracted a decent field, headed by Cavalryman /Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), third in last year´s "Arc" although unplaced both starts (in top company) this season, and Duncan /John Gosden/ William Buick), who was runner-up to Harbinger in the Hardwicke Stakes, which is pretty good form. Sri Putra (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) was runner-up in the Eclipse Stakes last time, which also reads well, but is trying this trip for the first time and also has to concede weight to the others, so we will be rooting for Cavalryman.
The final group race today is the Oak Tree Stakes for fillies over 7 furlongs at 18.15 and if there is any justice in the world this will be won by Jacqueline Quest (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who was disqualified after winning the 1,000 Guineas. Since then she has run another good race at Royal Ascot and is the clear form pick here. The Queen´s Golden Stream (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) may follow her home. Summer Fete (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) won this last year, but has only run once since and apparently needs cut in the ground, which she is unlikely to get.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Duncan - Sri Putra - Manighar
2. Race: Victoire De Lyphar - Bagamoyo - Tiddliwinks
3. Race: Sea Lord - Oasis Dancer - Invisible Man
4. Race: Libranno - Marine Commando - Roayh
5. Race: Memen - Royal Exchange - Major Conquest
6. Race: Jacqueline Quest - Tabassum - Puff
7. Race: Rule Of Nature - Perfect Blossom - Little Garcon
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Galway Festival: day four
In Ireland the Galway Festival goes into its fourth day with maximum fields in almost every race. As we predicted on Monday, Dermot Weld has been the trainer to follow at the meeting and has already won 8 races. He has more good chances today, in particular with Prince Erik (Robbie Power) in the opening beginners chase at 14.50 CET, top-weight Hallie´s Comet (Pat Smullen) in the fillies handicap at 16.35 and Force of Habit (Smullen), who won over hurdles on Monday, in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 18.30. Weld´s runner in the main event, the Guinness Galway Hurdle, a 2 mile handicap, is New Phase (Andrew McNamara) but this is a red hot race with 250,000 euros in added money. Bahrain Storm (Pat Flynn/ Shay Barry) won this last year and was a recent winner at Tipperary, but is up in the weights; Overturn (Donald McCain/ Graham Lee) is having a fantastic run, winning the Northumberland Plate on the flat last time and had great hurdles form beforehand, but has also been severely puni shed by the handicapper. Dirar (Gordon Elliott/ Barry Geraghty) is also in good form in both codes and looks greatly improved, while Christy Roche´s Lethal Weapon represents yesterday´s winning Galway Plate team of owner JP McManus and jockey Tony McCoy.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Prince Erik - Chicago Grey - Bronte Bay
2. Race: Beau Michael - Adajal - Tribes And Banner
3. Race: Luttrell Lady - Home Secretary - Designated Decoy
4. Race: Miss Eze - Intapeace - Smart Striking
5. Race: Cooper`S Crest - Bacher Boy - St Devote
6. Race: Overturn - Dirar - Bahrain Storm
7. Race: Force Of Habit - Strandfield Lady - Dusty Trail
8. Race: Johny`S Lantern - Total Pleasure - The Bishop`S Day
Glorious Goodwood: day three
The Glorious Goodwood meeting continues today when the main feature is the Group Two Goodwood Cup over 2 miles at 16.25 CET. Aidan O´Brien just missed out yesterday in the Sussex Stakes but can take this with Age of Aquarius with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh - back from suspension- in the saddle. Last time out Age of Aquarius ran an excellent race to finish runner-up in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot with Purple Moon (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) third and Kite Wood (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) seventh. This shorter trip should suit Kite Wood better, while Purple Moon is extremely consistent and has been running in top races all over the world (without actually winning a race for 3 years!) but there seems no reason why they should overturn the O´Brien runner. A much bigger danger is local trainer John Dunlop´s Tactic (Richard Hills), who seems mich improved and has the highest rating in the field; on his Curragh win from Profound Beauty there is little between him and Age of Aquarius. We would love to see German-bred veteran Caracciola (Nicky Henderson/ Eddie Ahern), 4th here last year. to run well again but on current form he will do well to get placed.
The King George Stakes, a Group Three over 5 furlongs at 15.45, has many of the top sprinters in the line-up, including consistent Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Kieren Fallon). However he usually comes into top form later in the year and we prefer Astrophysical Jet (Ed McMahon/ Graham Gibbons), who, running over 5 furlongs for the first time, put up an excellent performance at Newmarket to win a valuable handicap under a huge weight. The dark horse here is American raider Starfish (Todd Pletcher/ Frankie Dettori), who beat the course record when winning at Monmouth Park last time. Hard to say what this form is worth, but it would be no surprise were he to outclass this field.
The other group race is the Lillie Langtry Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 3/4 miles at 17.00. Nothing stnds out here, but surely super-consistent Polly´s Mark (Clive Cox/ Richard Hughes), who has been in the money on 13 of her 14 career starts, should be placed again. Motrice (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), has won her last 3 starts, all over this distance, but is taking a huge leap on class; however horses from this yard, currently in great form, can never be underestimated. On the other hand, Flying Cloud (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori), is unproven at the trip, but could still run out the winner as her form reads very well, in particular her second place in an Irish Group One.
The other U.K. meetings are not that exciting, but keep an eye on old-timer The Tatling (Milton Bradley/ Jack Dean) in the 5 furlongs handicap at 15.35 at Nottingham. This admirable performer, 16 wins and 39 places in 141 career starts, has been dropped in the weights, was arguably unlucky last time, and looks a gilt-edged each-way bet
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Sussex Stakes and Galway Plate on Wednesday
This column has the day off tomorrow (Wednesday) but we´ll have a quick look at the main events at Goodwood and Galway. At Goodwood, the Group One Sussex Stakes at 16.25 CET is the highlight of the whole week and promises to be a great race, with a clash between the best 3yo miler Canford Cliffs (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and the top 4yo and last years winner, Aidan O´Brien´s Rip van Winkle.
With stable jockey Johnny Murtagh suspended, O´Brien has booked British champion Ryan Moore and he is accompanied by a pacemaker Beethoven, ridden by the trainer´ s son Joseph. Beethoven is no slouch either, having won last autumn´s Dewhurst Stakes. Canford Cliffs was very impressive when winning the Irish 2,000 and the St. James´s Palace, but we still prefer Rip van Winkle, who looked very high class last season, especially here. The only one that could upset this pair is Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker), a winne twice in Germany last year and further improved since. He has been supplemented for this, his first attempt at a Group One, but should certainly finish in the money.
Galway also features its top race of the week, the Galway Plate, a 2 3/4 miles handicap chase at 18.25. The final field is not available at the time of writing, but it will certainly be a maximum field and as always wde open. Dermot Weld remains the trainer to follow here, both on the level and over jumps, and his Majestic Concorde (Robbie McNamara) is the ante-post favourite.
Galway Festival: day two
As expected, Dermot Weld landed a double here yesterday and is well on the way to being leading trainer at this meeting for an incredible 26th time. He has more good chances today, starting with Universal Truth (Robbie McNamara) in the opening maiden hurdle at 18.10 CET. Weld has won the 7 furlongs race for 2yo maiden fillies at 20.55 five times already this century, and now relies on debutante Zaminast (Pat Smullen) and another first time out winner for the pair could be Parlour in the 3yo maiden at 21.35; in both cases Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning supply the main dangers. Northern Rocket in the handicap for older horses, also over 7 furlongs at 21.05, is another possible winner for the Weld/ Smullen team, but they have no runner in the day´s top event, a valuable mile handicap at 20.00. With a maximum field of 18, this is very tough; our three against the field are CD specialist and last year´s winner Rock and Roll Kid (Tony and Danny Mullins) Mujaazef (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonogh) and If Per Chance (Mike Halford/ Fran Berry).
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Universal Truth - Drumfire - Clonard Lad
2. Race: Natal - Invisible Man - Killenaule Boy
3. Race: Don Leone - Siege Of Ennis - Summerlea
4. Race: If Per Chance - Mujaazef - Sixteen Forty Two
5. Race: Hasty Katie - Zaminast - Luxurious
6. Race: Northern Rocked - Initiation - He`S Got Rhythm
7. Race: Purple Land - Parlour - Big Bad Billy Bob
Glorious Goodwood: day one
One of the hottest meetings of the year in Britain , Glorious Goodwood, kicks off today on the Sussex Downs. When the weather is good, there is no more attractive racecourse in Europe. Racing is of the highest quality, with 3 group races today and some really competitive handicaps. Main event is the Group Two Lennox Stakes over the specialist trip of 7 furlongs at 16.25 CET. Finjaan (Marcus Tregoning/ Richard Hills) won this narrowly last year from Balthazar´s Gift (Clive Cox/ Philip Robinson) with Main Aim (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) a most disappointing favourite. All 3 line up again, md whil Finjaan - who is unbeaten here - can be fancied again, he has not run since March (Meydan) and his stable has had a very poor season so far. 3yo´s have a good record here and Red Jazz (Barry and Michal Hills) must have a decent chance; he was runner-up to Premio Loco last time, and that form has been well boosted since. However our main fancy here is French raider Dalghar (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Gerald Mossé); he was beaten 6 lengths when fifth to Goldikova at Royal Ascot last time, and that form should suffice here.
Thr Group Three Gordon Stakes for 3yo´s over 1 1/2 miles at 15.45 is regarded as an important trial for the St. Leger, but in fact the last 2 runnings have been won by Conduit and Harbinger, who both went on to win the King George. Dandino (James Given/ Paul Mulrennan) is tremendously improved and is unbeaten in 4 starts this year; however he is taking another jump in class here. Corsica (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is tough performer, while Godolphin´s Film Score (Frankie Dettori) should be better suited by this trip than the 10 furlongs over which he fourth at Royal Ascot. Jeremy Noseda holds a strong hand here, with Rebel Soldier (Ryan Moore), an easy handicap winner at York, and Theology (Paul Hanagan), a CD winner who was just touched off in the Queen´s Vase at Royal Ascot. In a tricky race, the last-named is our choice.
The Molecomb Stakes for speedy 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 17.00 is the other group race. Richard Hannon has so far cleaned up on the juvenile division and has two runners here, Zebedee (Richard Hughes) and Avonmore Star (Gary Moore), both of which must be considered, as well as Mayson (Richrd Fahey/ Hanagan), who won in a canter at Hamilton but obviously faces much tougher opposition now, and Stone of Folka (Johh Best/ Jimmy Quinn), still a maiden but who ran two great races at Royal Ascot.
The handicaps here are always very difficult, but two trainers to follow at this meeting are Mark Johnston and Amanda Perrett. We especially like the latter´s runners Truism (Ryan Moore) at 17.35 and Classic Vintage (Jim Crowley) at 18.40.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Australia Day - Almiqdaad - Yamal
2. Race: Rebel Soldier - Arctic Cosmos - Dandino
3. Race: Finjaan - Red Jazz - Main Aim
4. Race: Zebedee - Stone Of Folca - Avonmore Star
5. Race: Start Right - Truism - Kay Gee Be
6. Race: Straight Line - Big Issue - Golden Hinde
7. Race: Anhar - Emerging Artist - Jedi
Monday, July 26, 2010
Galway Festival opens at Ballybrit
Galway´s big summer meeting opens today at the Ballybrit racecourse and is as always one of the highlights of the Irish season. Huge crowds, numerous top events, both on the flat and over jumps for amateurs and for professionals, the "craic" is probably bigger here than at any other Irish meeting.
The betting strategy for Galway is usually quite simple: back all of Dermot Weld´s horses.The trainer always targets this meeting and with his string in top form, it will be a huge surprise if he cannot improve on his already sensational record here.
He runs Force of Habit (Paul Townend) in the opening novice hurdle at 18.10 CET; this recent flat winner ws third on his only race over sticks way back in the spring, but fcs some toiugh opposition today. Weld´s best chance is probably A Word Apart (Pat Smullen) in the 2yo maiden at 19.20; he often runs one of his top juveniles in this event, including subsequent Irish Derby winner Grey Swallow. The most valuable race of the day is the 2 mile handicap for amateur riders, where his Sublime Talent (Robbie Quinlan) is going for a hat-trick. Mutamaleq (Smullen) has been runner-up 3 times in a row and can take the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 20.35. Rainforest Magic (Smullen) is an interesting contestant in the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles; his form does not amount to much, but he is now stepped up in distance and is blinkered for the first time, so a much better performance can be expected. Weld´s final runner is Fort Defiance (Robbie McNamara) in the bumper at 21.35; he was beaten at odds-on on his only start so far, in March, and has ben kept for this race ever since. There are maximum fields in all these races, and the others want to win as well, so nothing will be easy, but we will be surprised of Weld does not have at least a couple of winners on the opening day.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fingal Rock - Cabernet Sauvignon - Force Of Habit
2. Race: Split Ear - Cylindar Rattler - Total Excitement
3. Race: A Word Apart - Robin Hood - Alexander Pope
4. Race: Sublime Talent - Cyborg - Galianna
5. Race: Mutamaleq - Frenka - Emily Jane
6. Race: La Chassotte - Driveheron - Notalossonya
7. Race: Fort Defiance - Apt Manor - Lady Chatterbox
Yarmouth, Wolverhampton (a.w.), Windsor and Uttoxeter (N.H.)
the usual Monday fare today, but, coming just after Ascot´s big meeting and with Glorious Goodwood starting tomorrow, nothing else could be expected.
The most interesting race at Yarmouth this aftenoon is the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.45 CET. Only 6 runners but still quite tricky. Wake Up Call (Chris Wall/ Jack Mitchell) has only run once this season, winning easily over this CD in May, while Soviet Secret (Charlie McBride/ Dane O´Neill) after running-up four times in succession finally got off the mark at Newmarket. Mark Johnston continues in unstoppable form, as we saw yesterday in Munich, and his Always Dazzling (Joe Fanning), third here over 6 furlongs last time, is a big danger. Our best bet here is Imprimis Tagula each-way in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.45. He was well beaten at Saturday over 7 furlongs at York, but this race - though very open- looks easier and the trip is more suitable.
The card at Wolverhampton is very low grade. Mme de Stael (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), running in the same colours as Lady Jane Digby, is our best bet here. Stepped up in distance (in time-honoured Prescott fashion) she won very easily at Lingfield last week and should have little problem in defying a 6 lbs penalty a relatively weak contest at 18.30.
Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are usually the team to follow at Windsor´s evening meetings and that should be the case again today. Tijori and Barking (well beaten at odds-on on his debut) can win the two 2yo maidens at 19.10 and 20.10, while top-weight Bougainvillea, who ran well in better company at Newmarket last time, can take the fillies handicap over 6 furlongs at 20.40.
Most interesting runner on a weak jumps card this evening at Uttoxeter is the ex-Schlenderhan runner Andorn (Peter Kirby/ Kyle James) in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 21.55. When last seen over hurdles he was pulled up on very heavy ground at Wetherby in December, but today´s better going should be ideal and he has been in good form on the flat, winning twice already this summer.
Betting forecast at Uttoxeter:
1. Race: Riverscape - Washango - Halling Gal
2. Race: Tritonville Lodge - Intac - Pagan Sword
3. Race: King Of Castile - Calzaghe - Manadam
4. Race: Bynack Mhor - Good Harvest - Strong Coffee
5. Race: Filippo Lippi - Aldiruos - Kisha King
6. Race: Sparkling Brook - Andorn - Northern Lad
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Maisons-Laffitte today
Two Group Two races are the features of today´s card at Maisons-Laffitte. The Prix Eugene Adam for 3yo´s over 2000 metres at 15.40 CET has ten runners, but only 4 of them are trained in France; there are 5 English-trained runners and one from Germany - Gestüt Ittlingen´s Hollywood Kiss (Andreas Wöhler/ Maxime Guyon), moving up in grade after finishing second in an Italian listed race and before that winning a listed event at Dortmund. For a while connections considered supplementing him for last week´s German Derby, but this race looks almost as tough. Of the British runners Xtension (Clive Cox/ Christophe Soumillon) has the best form but is possibly best at a mile. Over this trip we have a slight preference for Azmeel (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Emerald Commander (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona), who can contribute to another big Sunday for Godolphin. Best of the locals should be Lumineux (André Fabre/ Olivier Peslier).
The best German chance of the day in our view is Nina Celebre (Peter Schiergen/ Dominique Boeuf), who runs in a listed race for 4yo and older fillies and mares at 16.10; her Munich form gives her an excellent chance. German-bred La Boum (Robert Collet/ Thierry Jarnet) would win at her best, but has been running far too often for our taste. Collet has better prospects with Wizz Kid (Gregoire Benoist) in the Prix Robert Papin over 1100 metres for 2yo´s at 14.35; Newmarket raider Approve (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes). a Royal Ascot winner, looks the main danger.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ghor - Moranda - Kya One
2. Race: Kilo Alpha - On Verra - Ercolini
3. Race: Approve - Tin Horse - Broox
4. Race: Apt King - Anaxis - Priego
5. Race: Shimraan - Lumineux - Xtension
6. Race: La Boum - Board Meeting - One Clever Cat
7. Race: Corconte - Nuit De Glace - San Real
8. Race: Attiki Oddo - Inef - Calina Salsa
Ascot, Pontefract and Carlisle
the card on the third day of Ascot´s July meeting is clearly inferior to yesterday´s and the main events are two valuable handicaps. In the 1 1/2 mile race at 17.35 CET Mark Johnston is represented by wo runners with chnces, th improving 3yo Bay Willow (Joe Fanning) and Ascot specialist Record Breaker (Richard Hills), both with chances; the former was beaten by Times Up (John Dunlop/ Jamie Spencer) last time at Newmarket, but is now better off. Opera Gal, a 3yo filly trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Franny Norton looks very dangerous off bottom weight.
Balding also has a fancied runner in the 5 furlongs sprint at 18.10 in Rapid Water (Simon Pearce), who is out of the great Lochsong, but this a very tough race with 21 runners. Rowe Park (Linda Jewell/ Alan Munro) beat Monsieur Jo (Walter Swinburn/ Eddie Ahern) by a neck over this CD last time and could be little in it again. Top-weight Hamish McGonagall (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) and Masamah (Kevin Ryan/ Spencer) are others to be considered. The card opns with a 6 furlongs ace for unraced 2yo´s. Mark Johnston saddls Mltage (Richard Hills) hre, a 100,000 guinbs yearling who is hlg-brother to the top Grman miler Martillo. Although Johnston´s juveniles are not yet firing on all cylinders, this one might be very interesting.
Suggestions that the Sir Michael Stoute stable might be out of form were firmly refuted yesterday and he can land a double at Pontefract this afternoon with Zacinto in the main event, a listed race over a mile at 16.50 and Entitled in a maiden over the same trip at 18.00, both partnered by stable jockey Ryan Moore.
The main feature at Carlisle is a 1 1/2 miles handicap for lady amateur riders and many of the principals from yesterday´s lady´s race at Ascot again, including trainer Brian Ellison and jockey Serena Brotherton, who scored with Rosko, can follow up with Overrule. Nina Carberry, on Alan Swinbank´s Oneofapear, Katie Walsh, on Tom Dascombe´s Brouhaha and Vicky Fahey on her husband´s The Last Alzao are the obvious threats.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Group Two York Stakes
Despite the attractions of Ascot, several of the top jockeys are at York, including Frankie Dettori and Kieren Fallon, to ride in the Group Two York Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.05 CET. Frankie won the race last year and now partners Allybar, one of two Godolphin runners, while Fallon is on Luca Cumani s Summit Surge, runner-up to Pressing last time in Italy. Much as we respect these two, our main interests here are Debussy (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Bushman (David Simcock/ Neil Callan). The latter defeated Alexandros, our fancy for Munich´s big race tomorrow, over 9 furlongs at Epsom last time and should get the extra furlong, but our selection is Debussy, who was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths when 7th to Byword in the Prince of Wales´s Stakes at Royal Ascot, possibly the best 10 furlongs race of the year. Debussy is apparently even better when going left-handed and has everything in his favour today.
The big betting race at York is the Sky Bet Dash at 16.40. This 6 furlongs handicap has 20 runners and looks wide open, but our 4 against the field are Lowdown (Mark Johnston/ Dettori), going for a hat-trick but up in the weights), another improving 3yo Sunraider (Barry and Michael Hills), consistent Novellen Lad (Eric Alston/ Willie Supple) and Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Fallon), well behind Lowdown last time but expected to do much better this time on faster ground and with a swing in the weights.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Face The Problem - Blaze Of Thunder - Dingle View
2. Race: Viewing - Akhmatova - Tipperary Boutique
3. Race: Debussy - Monitor Closely - Bushman
4. Race: Sunraider - Lowdown - Hawkeyethenoo
5. Race: Mother Jones - Squires Gate - Common Touch
6. Race: Crackentorp - Dayia - Palomar
7. Race: Step In Time - Imprimis Tagula - Malcheek
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot this afternoon
For the last third of the 20th century, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group One, 3yo´s and up, 1 1/2 miles, to be run this afternoon at 17.25 CET at Ascot) was the undisputed highlight of the British summer season. This was the race in which the top 3yo´s took on the top older horses and the best Derby winners - Nijinsky, Mill Reef and other champions such as Dancing Brave and Brigadier Gerard- proved their mettle.
However in recent years the race has lost some of its glamour, as more and more trainers now concentrate on the valuable autumn races and give their stars a rest in the summer. No Derby winner has run here since 2003, and precious few 3yo´s at all.
Today´s field however includes not only the latest Epsom winner Workforce (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), but also the winner of the Irish equivalent Cape Blanco (Aidan O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue, replacing suspended stable jockey Johnny Murtagh).The pair have already met, in York´s Dante Stakes in May when the O´Brien horse ran out an easy winner, but Workforce, who ran very green and had problems with his bit, can be excused that below par performance. Since then Cape Blanco has run badly in the French Derby (no obvious excuses) but fought on well to defeat two stable-mates at the Curragh. Workforce has not been seen since his 7 lengths success, very impressive to the eye, at Epsom.
The problem is that the form of both the English and Irish Derby looks rather suspect; it seems quite likely that the French have the top 3yo´s this year, even though the official handicappers have given Workforce by far the best rating of Europe´s classic crop. Unfortunately only 4 older horses take on this pair, after Dar Re Mi (who we would have fancied) had be withdrawn yesterday with a stone bruise.
Best of them has to be Harbinger (Sir Michael Stoute/ Olivier Peslier), unbeaten in 3 starts this season, most recently in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this CD. He is tremendously improved but unproven at this level. Stoute also saddles Confront (Richard Mullen) as a pacemaker for Workforce. Stoute saddled the first 3 last year and it is possible that he can repeat this trick, but we doubt it.
The other two runners, the 7yo Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Richard Hughes) and the 4yo filly Daryakana (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Gerald Mossé) could well be the flies in the ointment. They met in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out, finishing second and third (in that order) in a desperately close finish. Youmzain was finishing runner-up in a Group One for the seventh time (including 3 times in the "Arc") and his problem is that he rarely wins. In fact his last victory - at St. -Cloud - was over two years ago when Hughes was also in the saddle. He is a strong finisher who needs a very fast pace (not certain) and a large field, clearly not the case today, to show his best form.
This leaves the Aga Khan filly and she is our selection. She has done very little wrong in her career, winning all 5 starts last year and improving from race to race, finally taking the Hong Kong Vase. Although she has been third on her both her 2010 starts, we believe that she still has improvement in her and consider her to be the best bet in the race at the likely odds of around 14-1.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Listed races for fillies at Ascot and York
Both Ascot and York start their big July meetings today and although tomorrow is the big day with the King George at Ascot and the GroupTwo York Stakes, today´s cards are also interesting. Main event at Ascot is the listed mile race for fillies at 16.20 CET with 8 runners, 5 of them 3y0´s. However the oldest runner, 5yo Alsace Lorraine (James Fanshawe/ Jamie Spencer) is the likely favourite here after running well at the Royal meeting.
The best of the 3yo´s could be Chachamaidee (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who had no chance in a Group One last time but should be more at home in this class, and I´m a Dreamer (David Simcock/ Hayley Turner); the latter is very much an unknown quantity, she is unbeaten in 3 starts at a much lower level and takes a huge leap in class here, but may well be up this grade.
York races this evening, and their main feature is also a listed race for fillies, this time over 10 furlongs at 20.30. Once again the oldest runner looks the one to beat - Les Fazzani (Kevin Ryan/ Paul Hanagan). She is a most consistent mare and the more rain that falls the better. Nouriya (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) is a possible improver, but the stable is not in great form, while Bikini Babe (Mark Johnston/ Jo Fanning) and Acquainted (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston) were both beaten out of sight in Royal Ascot´s Coronation Stakes (Group One). Off Chance (Tim Easterby/ Duran Fentiman) won a mile listed race last time and looks the one for the forecast.
Back at Ascot, we also like Newsells Park´s Keenes Day (Johnston/ Greg Fairley) in the 2 mile handicap at 16.55, although Desert Recluse (Pat Eddery/ Kieren Fox), the only 3yo in the field, looks very dangerous off his low weight with a good claimer on board.
At Thirsk, Sir Mark Prescott and Seb Sanders could land a double with Soie de Chine in the 2yo fillies maiden at 15.35 and Fork Lightning in the 7 furlongs maiden at 16.10, both well-bred runners who can be expected to improve significantly on their last form, while at Newmarket´s evening meeting Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are the team to follow.
The most interesting runner at Wexford´s evening meeting in Ireland is Key Secure (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) in the 11 furlong maiden at 20.35. She is far from being one of the stable stars, but is extremely well-bred and winning here would certainly improve her paddock value.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Group races this evening at Leopardstown
Very small fields in the two group races at Leopardstown´s evening fixture, with only 4 lining up for the Tyros Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 19.25 CET. The last 4 winners of this race were Teofilo, New Approach, Rip van Winkle and Cape Blanco, champions all, so the winner- who will almost certainly be Aidan Brien´s Zoffany (Johnny Murtagh) -has a lot to live up to. O´Brien can also take the Meld Stakes over 9 furlongs at 20.30, in which he saddles two runners Steinbeck (Murtagh) and Lord High Admiral (Seamus Heffernan- who also rides the stable second string in the earlier race). Steinbeck has had varuous setbacks nd has not yet run up to his lofty reputtion, but he gets his chance here. The obvious danger is Dermot Weld´s Famous Name (Pat Smullen), who has an excellent record at this track: he has run here six times, winning 4 times and finishing twice runner-up. However he has to give the 3yo´s a stone (14 lbs) which will not be easy.
There is also Irish jumping this evening at Limerick with some huge fields.
6 U.K. meetings today
Plenty of racing today, but mainly at a low level. The exception is the listed race for 2yo fillies at 16.20 CET at Sandown, which has attracted quite a decent field - 8 runners, 4 of them still unbeaten, including Richard Hannon´s Admirable Spirit (Richard Hughes), the likely favourite. However we prefer stablemate Pennys Pearl (Ryan Moore), whose Royal Ascot form can be ignored. Crying Lightening (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Martin Dwyer) was also unplaced at the Royal meeting, but can be excused as she was racing on the "wrong" side and can also be given a chance here. Bst bet here is Nationlism (John Gosden/ Ryan Moore) in the mile maiden at 17.30; he has been runner-up on both his starts so far and is now down in distance. We also like the chances of Nezhenka (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) under top weight in the 3yo handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 15.45, although he meets tougher opposition than when easily winning at Catterick last time.
Sir Mark has his team in great form and can also be on the scoreboard at Bath with Lutine Bell (Steven Donohoe), in the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.40, and at Folkestone this evening with Allannah Abu (Rosie Jessop) in the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 21.10; he might also score here with Sumerian (Seb Sanders) in the 10 furlongs handicap here half an hour later, but we prefer Frankie Dettori´s mount Psychic Ability in this small field, even though he has not run for 9 months.
We also hope to see oldtimer Cape Royal (Milton Bradley/ Jim Crowley) run well in Epsom´s 5 furlongs handicap at 19.40. He has already run 140 times, but is currently in good form, and the outside draw should be an advantage- as should the forecast rain, it it arrives.The best race at Doncaster this evening is the 7 furlongs handicap for fillies at 20.25, which with 14 runners has one of the biggest fields of the day. This is very competitive, but our short list comprises Cheers for Thea (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) and Whirly Dancer (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), although she is well held on her latest form by Breathless Kiss (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan).
There is also jumping this afternoon at Uttoxeter, where we expect to see Chesapeake (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy)follow up an easy recent win in the novice hurdle at 15.00.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Listed race this evening at Naas
The best race of the day in Britain and Ireland is the listed event for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 20.00 CET this evening at Naas. This is quite a valuable event and has attracted a strong field, including two runners from England: Prescription(Sir Mark Prescott/ Declan McDonogh) and Swiss Diva /David Elsworth/ Fran Berry). However the home team, headed by in-foal Miss Gorica (Joanna Morgan/ Wayne Lordan), the much improved Invincible Ash (Mark Halford/ Gary Carroll) and the 3yo Betwiched (Charles O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh), may come out on top. Johnny Murtagh can also land a short -priced double on Enchanted Forest at 20.30 and Fencing Master half an hour later for Aidan O´ Brien (no relation).
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Natalisa - Tom Sawyer - Bintan
2. Race: Atyaab - Gala Spirit - Ibelieveinmiracles
3. Race: Kitty Kiernan - Invincible Ash - Miss Gorica
4. Race: Enchanted Forest - Music In The Rain - Ploopluck Bridge
5. Race: Fencing Master - Excelerate - Wade Giles
6. Race: Aoibhinn - An Mhi - New Atalanta
7. Race: Anam Chara - Maybe Grace - Inwood
Catterick, Lingfield, Sandown, Leicester and Worcester (N.H.)
5 meetings in the U.K today, and most of the top jockeys will be riding at the all-weather track at Lingfield in the afternoon and then on turf at Sandown´s evening meeting. The Godolphin team are in top form, as we saw at Hamburg last weekend, and they could have some more winners today. Introvert and Rutterkin (both Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) have good chances in the two divisions of the 2yo maiden at Lingfield at 15.00 CET and 15.30 respectively. Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can also score a double here with Sir Walter Raleigh and Longliner in the two divisions of the 1 1/2 mile maiden at 17.00 and half an hour later.
Godolphin also have two runners in the 2yo maiden this evening at 20.10 at Sandown - Baransky (Ahmed Ajtebi), runner-up to the potentially smart Native Khan at Newmarket, and the well-bred debutant Bawaab (Dettori), and could well take the first two places here. Best race at Sandown is the 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 20.40, which looks very tricky. Dettori rides Sailorman for Mark Johnston, who has to be on the short list, while last-time-out winners Katakosi (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Ertikaan (Michael Jarvis/ Richard Hills) are also highly respected.
Michael Jarvis also has prospects of a winner at Leicester this evening, when Naddwah (Philip Robinson) contests the 3yo fillies´ handicap at 20.50. We expect Aestival (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) to complete a four-timer under top weight in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 22.20, while the most amusing winner here would be George Baker, trained by George Baker and ridden by a different George Baker, in the 3yo handicap at 19.45. However he is having his first race since October, so it looks unlikely.
At Catterick this afternoon, the most interesting event is the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.40. This looks wide open and almost any of the 10 runners could win, but we expect one of the 3 joint top-weights Le Toreador (Kevin Ryan/ Paul Hanagan), Lucky Numbers (Paul Green/ James Sullivan) or Crimea (David and Adrian Nicholls) to score.
There is also N.H. racing at Worcester, where FiveoutofFive (Evan Williams/ Paul Molony) can defy a double penalty and make it three out of four in the novice hurdle at 15.50. The other novice hurdle, over half a mile further at 18.20, should lie between the two penalised horses Off Gallivanting (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and Sahrati (Michael Blake/ Denis O´Regan)
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
5 meetings today
There are 5 meetings today, but all at a very low level. At Ffos Las, the main event is a mile handicap at 17.00 CET with 8 runners, 3 of them 3yo´s. We expect this age group to come out on top, with Mark Johnston ´s only runner here Secretive (Joe Fanning ) taken to beat Innocuous (David Simcock/ Martin Lane), a close 4th at Sandown last time. Best of the older horses could be Huzzah (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston).
Derk Haysn Jones saddles 2 runmers in the 6 furlongs handivap half an hour later, both of them lst tim out winners. We have a slight preference for German-bred Gwilym (Cathy Gannon) over Westwood (Dane O´Neill) but there is probably very little in it.
Another top trainer with only one runner is Saeed bin Suroor, who sends Godolphin´ s Barq (Frankie Dettori) to contest the 7 furlong maiden at 17.45. However the well-bred Esaar (Barry and Richard Hills) looks a big danger. One we like here is Chris Wall´s Baby Rock (George Baker) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.45. This is a very poor race, and although he is still a maiden, Baby Rock has shown odd flashes of enough ability to score now. Albacocca (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) looks a typical handicap debutant from this shrewd stable; after running three times down the field as a 2yo, he now reappears over a much longer distance in the 3yo handicap at 16.15. He is quite likely thrown in off a handicap rating of only 50.
Prescott and Sanders could also be on the mark at Kempton´s evening meeting: Tuscan Gold, who runs in the 2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 21.20 has a similar profile. After running 3 times unplaced last year, he made his 2010 debut over 10 furlongs at Haydock, was a good runner-up, and is now stepped up in distance. The best race here is the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´ s at 20.50. Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for Andrew Balding´s bottomweight Swan Wings, well beaten over 5 furlongs at Ascot last time; the same day Bohemian Melody (Marco Botti/ William Buick) ran 4th in a competitive handicap over 7 furlongs. Over this distance, both could run better, but the one they have to beat is probably Qudwah (Michael Jarvis/ Tagdh O´Shea), a very easy Doncaster winner last time and now making his handicap debut.
There are also 2 jumping fixtures this evening - at Bangor and in Ireland at Ballinrobe. At the Irish track, Gordon Elliott continue his winning run; Esporao (Paul Carberry) in the 4yo maiden hurdle at 19.00, Definite All Star (Keith Donoghue) in the maiden for older horses half an hour later, and Templar Knight (Carberry) in the handicap hurdle at 20.00 all have winning chances. Best bet at Bangor is the German-bred Walamo (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) in the novice chase at 20.10. He was a very easy winner at Market Rasen last time and can follow up in similar company this evening.
Monday, July 12, 2010
mixed bag today
racing from all over today -Wales. Scotland, Ireland, but very little of it of significance. The flat meeting at Ffos Las is arguably the best meeting, but the fields there are small and only 5 line up in the main feature, a mile handicap at 17.20 CET. We fancy Opus Maximus (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) here, although ex-German group race winner Aspectus (Jamie Osborne/Fergus Sweeney), who has top-weight here, would be a big danger if he could recover his old form. Johnston and Fanning can also take the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 16.50 with the admirable Lady Eclair, who has won 5 of her 9 career starts and has not finished winning yet. One ex-German horse that can score here is Aragall (George Baker/ Matthew Davies), who was heavily backed before winning a lady riders race last time and has little to beat in the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.20.
While Mark Johnston makes the long journey to South Wales, Mick Channon is travelling in the opposite direct and can win two races at Ayr, the fillies handicap at 16.00 with Hairspray, a winner at Epsom last week, and the 3yo handicap an hour later with top-weight Mejd, both ridden by Sam Hitchcott. James Given obviousy wants to win the 10 furlongs handicap here at 17.30, as he saddles 3 runners, including Marjury Daw (Paul Mulrennan), who has already won twice this month; however at these weights we prefer Chantilly Pearl (Royston Ffrench).
Richard Hannon is alwas the trainer to follow at Windsor, and in the 2yo maiden at 19.40 this evening he also saddles 3 runners, of whom Ryan Moore´s mount Jambo Bibi, placed on all 4 starts so far, is presumably the pick. Ryan can follow up on his father´s Red Yarn in the fillies handicap at 21.10; though still a maiden, she has been runner-up 4 times in her last 6 races and is overdue for a win.
This all-weather racing at Dundalk this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening. At the latter meeting, the best event is the 7 furlongs handicap at 21.50, which has attracted a strong field. Prime Exhibit (Richard Fahey/ Lee Topliss) has been contesting top handicaps and may be able to defy top-weight, although Mr. Rainbow (Alan Swinbank/ Neil Callan) and Flowing Cape (Reg Hollinshead/ Jack Mitchell) both look dangerous. Johnny Murtagh looks the jockey to follow at Dundalk; he has fancied mounts in most races, and can land a double for Aidan O´Brien on Air Chief Marshall at 16.10 and Seven Summits at 17.40.
There is also a mixed meeting in Ireland at Killarney this evening. Main feature here is the chase over an extended 2 miles at 21.00. Ex-German Schelm (Ronnie O´Leary/ DG Hogan) is a smart performer in this grade and can concede weight all round.
Betting forecast Ffos Las:
1. Race: Pin Cushion - Admirable Duchess - Mount Acclaim
2. Race: Cockney - First Fandango - Woodford Belle
3. Race: Aragall - Shabak Hom - Dane Cottage
4. Race: Lady Eclair - Lady Hestia - Excelsior Academy
5. Race: Manassas - Opus Maximus - Aspectus
6. Race: Celtic Ransom - Catchanova - Scottish Boogie
Sunday, July 11, 2010
German fillies at Maisons-Laffitte
a relatively quiet Sunday in France, and the main feature is a listed race for 3yo fillies over 1400 metres at 15.45 CET at Maisons-Laffitte. No fewer than 4 German fillies are entered here, and we give Reine Heureuse (Uwe Ostmann/ Yann Lerner) the best chance. She ran really well in the German 1,000 Guineas and this distance is probably more suitable. She holds Devilish Lips (Andreas Löwe/ Davy Bonilla) on that form, but she was very unlucky at Düsseldorf and could well spring a surprise. Doulala (Peter Schiergen/ Maxime Guyon) and Indian Cat (Werner Hefter/ Johan Victoire) are probably not as strong as the two mentioned previously.
Christian von der Recke´s American Life (Christophe Soumillon) made all to win in France last time, but faces tougher opposition today at 14.35; however we can easily inagine Statini (Hans-Walter Hiller/ Rebecca Schumacher) winning the claiming race for older horses over 2400 metres at 16.45, as the opposition in this race for lady riders does not look strong.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: De Zavala - Goodbyemylover - Tartarin
2. Race: Grey Lily - Fantastic Flash - Valasyra
3. Race: Tazmiyna - Red Anthem - Han Shan
4. Race: Mister Chop - Derison - Rey Davis
5. Race: Corcovada - Argumentative - Disclose
6. Race: Rockawango - Archissime - Lion des Flandres
7. Race: Bluefields - Urban Tiger - Tiger Cliff
8. Race: Arc De Triomphe - Zizany - Aleandros
listed race at Tipperary
4 of today´s 5 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland are N.H. meetings, the exception being the Tipperary fixture, where the main feature is a listed race over 5 furlongs for 2yo´s at 16.45 CET. This is not an especially strong field, and the lone British raider Waking Warrior (Kevin Ryan/ Declan McDonogh) must have a chance, even though his only win came at Southwell. Moonlit Garden (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who ran well at Royal Ascot but was well beaten over 6 furlongs last time, looks best of the Irish. Surprisingly Aidan O´Brien has no runners in the main races, but can still score a first and last race double with Master of Hounds and Dance on By, both partnered by Johnny Murtagh. The former has been a beaten favourite twice running but can recover those losses now, while the latter, who had no chance in a listed race last time, meets much lesser opposition; she needs to win a race, as she is an own-sister to High Chaparall and therefore a valuable broodmare prospect.
Gordon Elliott, who has his string in tremendous form, looks the trainer to follow over jumps. He has an excellent record at Perth, and can score there with Nedzer s Return (Joey Elliott) in the novice hurdle at 16.10, who has already won 3 times over this CD, Long Wait (Jason Maguire) in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.40 and Shopfrontspecialist (Keith Donoghue) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 17.40. Elliott can also take the main event at Sligo with Riverscape (Paul Carberry), who looks very much on the up.
Long Wait has been raised a massive 19 lbs for his last CD win but won with so much in hand that he can go in again. Another heavily penalised runner is Restart (Lucinda Featherstone/ Tom Phelan), who can complete a quick CD treble in the handicap hurdle at 17.20 at Southwell. He can make the most of the 15lbs he receives from Majestic Mayhem (George Moore/ Barry Keniry).
There could be some German-bred winners at Stratford. Passato (Miss JD Davis/ Tony McCoy), a son of Acatenango, has won his last two races very easily (including this CD) and can win again at 16.30, although this is quite an open race. We also fancy that the Lando son Nordwind (Evan Williams/ Donal Fahy) will run well in the handicap hurdle half an hour earlier. He made no show on his recent comeback, but won 3 races last summer and loves this fast ground.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Master Of Hounds - Sherwood Forest - Hanginthebalance
2. Race: Anam Chara - Spirit Of Xaar - Full Title
3. Race: Prince Of Fashion - Slapper - Initiation
4. Race: Moonlit Garden - Waking Warrior - Mr Man In The Moon
5. Race: Nidian - Celerina - Ibelieveinmiracles
6. Race: Flash Mcgahon - Polar Explorer - Pimlico Sound
7. Race: Dance On By - Edallora - Dearest Girl
Saturday, July 10, 2010
listed races at Chester and Fairyhouse
there is plenty more racing today, with listed events at Chester and Fairyhouse (Ireland) as well as the big races at Ascot and York. The 6 furlongs race at Fairyhouse, due at 16.15 CET, looks wide open. Of the older horses, Snaefell (Mike Halford/ Pat Smullen) - who would however prefer softer going- Duff (Eddie Lynam/ Fran Berry) and in-foal front-runner Miss Gorica (Joanna Morgan/ Wayne Lordan) are very reliable at this level, but we prefer the 3yo´s. Velvet Flicker (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough) was runner-up here over 7 furlongs, with several of these opponents behind, last time, but in our view the Royal Ascot form of Rock Jock (Tracy Collins/ Pat Snanahan) looks stronger.
At Chester, Lord Shanakill (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) has an obvious chance in the 7 furlongs race at 15.15; he has been running in much better company, and was not disgraced last time in the Golden Jubilee. Queally, who is having a good run, can also take the 5 furlongs race at 16.20 on Robin Bastiman´s Borderlescott, who also ran an excellent race at Royal Ascot when third to Equiano (who boosted the form yesterday). The trainer has not won a race for two months, which is slightly worrying, but can be back in the winner´s circle today.
Betting forecast Chester:
1. Race: Lord Shanakill - Ashram - Dunelight
2. Race: Inspirina - King`S Masque - Dark Ranger
3. Race: Borderlescott - Glamorous Spirit - Reverence
4. Race: Simonside - Theola - Arab League
5. Race: Earl Wild - Welsh Inlet - Tilliemint
6. Race: Green Park - Legal Eagle - Bahamian Lad
7. Race: Another Magic Man - Mejd - Nubar Boy
John Smith´s Cup at York
the most valuable race in the U.K. today, and the big betting event, is the John Smith´s Cup at York at 16.05 CET, a 10 furlongs handicap with 150,000 GBP in prize-money. With 20 runners this is extremely difficult. Richrd Fahey s always trhe rainer to follow here, epeilly at th bug meetings, and he saddls 5 runners. The well-drawn Demolition is the choice of stbl jocky Paul Hanagan and goes automtically on the short list. He was runner-up last time over 1 1/2 miles, as was Sir Michael Stoute´ s Imposing (Ryan Moore), a very reliable performer who had earlier won over this CD and will probably start favourite. In large fields over this distance a low draw is regarded as a huge advantage, end we can probably rule out Indian Days, Desert Kiss, and Albaqaa, all drawn out wide. Forte dei Marmi (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), winner of the Zetland Gold Cup last time, and the only 3yo in the field Wigmore Hall (Michael Bell/ Martin Lane) also make the short list. Normally we don´t li ke backing 3yo´s against older horses at this stage of the season, but Wigmore Hall is very consistent, loves firm ground and ran really well in a big field last time at Royal Ascot, so we make him the selection.
Main supporting feature at York is the listed handícap over 1 3/4 miles at 16.40. 4 of the 7 runners met last time in the Northumberland Plate, with runner-up Drunken Sailor (Cumani/ Fallon) easily the best performer there. However we would not be surprised to see Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Phillip Makin) and Deauville Flyer (Tim Easterby/ Robert Winston finish much closer over this slightly shorter trip; however our main hope is Free Agent (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore), who has not won since his 2yo days but is very consistent and hails from a stable that can do no wrong at present.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Harlech Castle - Tiddliwinks - Cornus
2. Race: Day Of The Eagle - Mac`S Power - Capponi
3. Race: Imposing - Forte Dei Marmi - Wigmore Hall
4. Race: Drunken Sailor - Deauville Flyer - Free Agent
5. Race: Jaahiz - Nicola`S Dream - Set Me Free
6. Race: Dubai Media - Christmas Light - Lady Berta
7. Race: Bachelor Knight - Lady Royale - Orchid Street
Friday, July 09, 2010
rest of Newmarket and also group race at York
The main supporting feature at Newmarket is the Group Two Superlative Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.00. With Richard Hannon´s juveniles continuing to dominate this age group, King Torus (Richard Hughes) is automatically respected, as is Emperor Hadrian (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtgah), whose 2yo´s are always to be feared. However (Jremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore), who got up on the line to win a Group Two over 6 furlongs at the Curragh and should get this trip, has the better form, while Ecliptic (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi), an easy Sandown maiden winner, is also in with a chance in this better company.
The Bunbury Cup over 7 furlongs at 15.35 is always one of the hottest handicaps of the season, and this renewal is no different with 20 runners. Palace Moon (William Knight/ Kieren Fallon) and St. Moritz (Mark Johnston/ Frankie Dettori) were both third in a huge field at Royal Ascot - in the Wokingham over 6 furlongs and Royal Hunt Cup over a mile repesctively, This intermediate distance should suit them both, while Signor Peltro (Henry Candy / Dane O´Neill) is another one for the short list.
Away from Newmarket, the most interesting race of the day is the Group Three Cuisine de France Summer Stakes for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 15.45 at York. Letteratura (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon) comes with strong form from France - she has finished first or second in her last 6 races - and can beat the British fillies, who look nothing out of the ordinary. The penalised Gilt Edge Girl (Clive Cox/ Luke Morris) and the 3yo Rose Blossom, whose trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Paul Hanagan have such a good record her, look the best of them.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Polar Kite - Tokum - King Of The Celts
2. Race: Gilt Edge Girl - Letteratura - Rose Blossom
3. Race: Smarty Socks - Northern Fling - Fishforcompliments
4. Race: La De Two - Emerging Artist - Cosmic Sun
5. Race: Motrice - Atlantic Tiger - Park View
6. Race: Ridley Didley - Pepper Lane - Highland Warrior
July Cup at Newmarket
highlight of the third and final day of Newmarket´s July Festival is the Group One July Cup over 6 furlongs at 16.10 CET. This promises to be a real classic, with a superb field. When the Golden Jubilee was run at Royal Ascot 3 weeks ago, it was generally regarded as the best sprint race in the world. Today´s race could be even better, as it includes not only the principals from that race but also from the King´s Stand as well. In fact every one of the 14 runners ran in one of those two Royal Ascot events.
The logical winner today is the ex-Australian Starspangled Banner (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh), most impressive when making all the running to win the Golden Jubilee and described by the trainer as the fastest horse he has ever had. Among those who reoppose today are Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Pat Cosgrave), one of 2 3yo´s in the field, who ran on strongly to snatch seond place on the line, as well as U.S.-trained Kinsale King (Carl O´Callaghan/ Kieren Fallon) and Fleeting Spirit (Jermy Noseda/ Frankie Dettori), last year´s winner, who were close up third and fourth. We especially like Fleeting Spirit, as the filly was badly drawn at Ascot and was forced to race on the wrong side. She, Starspangled Banner and Kinsale King are now drawn next to each other, which adds to the spice. Marchand d´Or (Mikael Delzangles/ Davy Bonilla) won this race with a terrific burst of speed in 2008; he was well beaten at Ascot but can never be left out.
Equiano (Barry and Michael Hills) is right back to his best and won the King´s Stand in good style, with Australian hope Nicconi /David Hayes/ Damien Oliver) 4th and beaten favourite Kingsgate Native (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) sixth. However that race was over 5 furlongs and we expect the form of the Golden Jubilee to prove superior today, with Starspangled Banner and Fleeting Spirit our two against the field, with Nicconi and Kinsale King the next best.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dance East - Sea Lord - Mr Irons
2. Race: Formosina - Klammer - Emperor Hadrian
3. Race: Palace Moon - Captain Brilliance - St Moritz
4. Race: Starspangledbanner - Fleeting Spirit - Kinsale King
5. Race: Ragsah - Mama Lulu - Apazine
6. Race: Rerouted - Liberty Cap - Breathless Storm
7. Race: Bay Willow - Bugaku - Speed Dating
Thursday, July 08, 2010
3 group races at Newmarket today
there are 3 group races at Newmarket this afternoon, the second day of the July Festival. Most significant is the Princess of Wales´s Stakes over 1 1//2 miles at 16.10 CET, in which British racegoers have their first chance to see Spanish Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) for 20 months. The 6yo was banned from racing in Britain after frequently causing problems at the start. Since then he has running all over the place ("wherever they will hav us") with good effect- winning twice in France and finishing in the money in top races in the Breeders Cup, Hong Kong, and most recently in Dubai. All of these performances are certainly good enough for him to win this race, as long as he consents to go into the stalls.Otherwise the likeliest winners are Holberg (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a very easy listed winner at Goodwood, and Tazeez (John Gosden/ Richard Hills), who ran a great race at Royal Ascot when finishing third to Byword and Twice Over after making the running, but now tries a longer trip. Sans Frontieres (Jeremy Noseda/ Tom Queally), Redwood (Barry and Michael Hills) and Crowded House (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) finished 4th, 5th and 6th in that order in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot; they could go well again, but that form should not be good enough for them to trouble Spanish Moon.
The other two pattern races have relatively small fields. 7 line up for the opening Bahrain Trophy for 3yo´s over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 14.30. Corsica (Mark Johnston/ Dettori) is our selection here. he was 4th in the Queens Vase and before that 3rd in a valuable handicap at Mussleburgh won by Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ LIam Jones), whom he now meets on 18 lbs better terms for 5 lengths. A greater danger could be Prizefighting (Gosden/ William Buick), running in first time blinkers; he was 4th at Chantilly last time on soft ground but faster going is probably better for him
There are only 5 runners in the July Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.00 and this should on Royal Ascot form be booked for Elzaam (Michael Jarvis/ Richard Hills), who was caught on the line in the Coventry, the best 2yo race of the season so far. Richard Hannon´s juveniles are still going strong, and his Libranno (Ryan Moore) looks the chief danger.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Corsica - Harris Tweed - Very Good Day
2. Race: Elzaam - Approve - Neebras
3. Race: Treble Jig - Ransom Note - Breakheart
4. Race: Holberg - Spanish Moon - Tazeez
5. Race: Roayh - Casual Glimpse - Major Dude
6. Race: Critical Moment - Sweet Sonnet - Party Doctor
7. Race: Ziggy Lee - Invincible Lad - Astrophysical Jet
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
rest of July Festival: day one
main supporting feature this afternoon at Newmarket is the Group Two Cherry Hinton Stakes over 6 furlongs for 2yo fillies at 15.35 CET. Richrd Hannon and Richard Hughes can do no wrong at the moment, and they have the obvious favourite here in the unbeaten Memory, who last time finished fast to win the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, with Radharcanfarraige (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and Hooray (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) not far behind in 4th and 8th respectively in a field of 22. Obviously the commentator is hoping that Bolger´s filly will not get involved, but Memory is a tricky filly who has very slowly away on both her starts so far. In theory she should win again, but the once-raced Tanfeer (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and Soraaya (Mick Channon/ Ryan Moore), who both won their maidens in impressive style and are now moving up sharply in class, could also prove dangerous.
The handicaps this afternoon look really difficult, with large fields. Our three against the field in the opening one, for 3yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 14.30 are Maid in Heaven (Walter Swinburn/ Shane Kelly), going for a hat-trick, Miss Zooter (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), back in distance, and Strictly Dancing (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune). In the following 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s our choices are Kingsgate Choice (John Best/ Kieren Fallon), Deacon Blues (James Fanshawe/ Jamie Spencer) and Robinson Cruso (sic) (Michael Jarvis/ Martin Dwyer), all winners last time out and on the upgrade - but so are most of their 17 opponents
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maid In Heaven - Chica Whopa - Dylanesque
2. Race: Kingsgate Choice - Gene Autry - Deacon Blues
3. Race: Memory - Radharcnafarraige - Tanfeer
4. Race: Lillie Langtry - Special Duty - Strawberrydaiquiri
5. Race: Bowermaster - Enabling - Baransky
6. Race: Nationalism - Mata Keranjang - Sea Change
7. Race: Space War - Thabit - Venutius
Falmouth Stakes first highlight of July Festival
the July Festival at Newmarket starts today with an excellent field for the featured Falmouth Stakes, a Group One event for fillies and mares over a mile at 16.10 CET. The Head family have a good record at Newmarket, and after Freddie won this race last year with the outstanding Goldikova, his sister Criquette now attempts to achieve a family double with Special Duty (Tom Queally). Special Duty has the unique distinction of being the only filly to win both the English and French 1,000 Guineas on an objection. At Newmarket it was on the disqualification of Queally´s mount, and the jockey gets the ride today as both the normal riders are injured. Special Duty was the top European 2yo filly last season after winning the Morny and the Cheveley Park (here) and is undoubtedly very smart; who beats her, wins.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maid In Heaven - Chica Whopa - Dylanesque
2. Race: Kingsgate Choice - Gene Autry - Deacon Blues
3. Race: Memory - Radharcnafarraige - Tanfeer
4. Race: Lillie Langtry - Special Duty - Strawberrydaiquiri
5. Race: Bowermaster - Enabling - Baransky
6. Race: Nationalism - Mata Keranjang - Sea Change
7. Race: Space War - Thabit - Venutius
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
listed race at Pontefract
best race in Britain and Ireland today is the listed Pipalong Stakes over a mile for 4yo and older fillies and mares at 17.00 CET at Pontefract. 10 fillies entered, all looking for black type, and few of them really up to this grade. One exception could be the improving Flora Trevelyan (Walter Swinburn/ Ted Durcan), who won a Sandown handicap in fine style last time. Swinburn´s stable is in good form, but the really hot trainer right now is Brian Meehan, and for that reason his Sarah Park (Kieren Fallon) is highly respected, even though she was well beaten last time out in a Group Three on Derby Day. Tropical Paradise (Peter Winkworth/ Jim Crowley) -possibly best at 7 furlongs - and Good Again (Gerald Butler/ Hayley Turner) - the only CD winner in the field- are others to consider.
the rest of today´s racing is pretty grim: all-weather card at Wolverhampton in the afternoon and Southwell in the evening -with only class 5 or 6 events, jumping this evening at Uttoxeter and in Ireland an all-hurdles card at Roscommon,
At Wolverhampton we expect the 8 1/2 furlong maiden at 17.15 to develop into a match between Battle Honour (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) and White Devil (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune). The latter had no chance at Royal Ascot, but this event is obviously much easier; however the former´s second place to the smart Afsane reads better. German-bred Home Sweet Home (Ed Dunlop( Ahmed Ajtebi) is an interesting runner in the 7 furlongs handicap at 18.15 as he was last seen running in Hungary.
Another trainer to have come back into form recently is Jamie Osborne, and we expect him to win the 6 furlongs handicap this evening at 22.10 at Southwell with Super Yellow (Fergus Sweeny)
At Uttoxeter this evening, Red Dynamite (Geoff Harker/ Paddy Aspell) can follow up his recent Wetherby victory by taking the novice handicap chase at 20.50 under a penalty, while the most interesting runner at Roscommon could be the ex-German Narcisco (Shark Hanlon/ Joe Cullen) in the maiden hurdle at 19.00. He was listed class in Germany two years ago, but since being sold to go jumping, has run three disastrous races for Nigel Hawke. Now, havng had a break and in a new yard, he might run better this time.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Majestic Myles - Alfraamsey - Orientalist
2. Race: Jackson - Monkton Vale - Sadler`S Mark
3. Race: Flouncing - Perfect Blossom - Carrie`S Magic
4. Race: Flora Trevelyan - Tropical Paradise - Sarah Park
5. Race: Tangerine Trees - Cornus - Red Cape
6. Race: Fascination - Charming Man - Hidden
7. Race: Vito Volterra - Dutiful - Director General
Monday, July 05, 2010
German runners in France today
there could be German winners at both today´s French PMU meetings - Compiegne in the afternoon and Nantes in the early evening.Jean-Pierre Carvalho has his string in good form (two winners yesterday) and runs Silver Lady in the tiercé handicap over 2000 metres at 13.40 CET at Compiegne, and Nabella in the claiming race for 3yo fillies at 16.45 both owned by Stall Lucky Owner and ridden by Mikael Barzalona. We think the former could run well at a big price, but the latter may have to give best to the other German fillies - Viareggia (Werner Baltromei/ Dominique Boeuf) and especially Laudera (Torsten Mundry/ Gaetan Masure). Another interesting runner here is the well-bred Perpignan (Norbert Sauer/ Henk Grewe) in the 1400 metres race for unraced 3yo´s at 14.10.
At Nantes, Uwe Ostmann´s Forthemillionkiss (William Mongil) has a good each-way chance in the listed race over a mile at 17.00. He won a girls´ race last time at Chantilly, and although today´s opposition is much stronger, he should still get involved in the finish. Mongil also partners I Do for Ralf Rohne in a 3yo race over the same distance at 18.30.
Betting forecast Nantes:
1. Race: Rudyard - Sabratah - Footloose
2. Race: Krataios - Mary Boleyn - Polarix
3. Race: Diagora - Sugarplum - Gare Du Nord
4. Race: Hope Of The Irish - Bristo Camino - Bonne Chance
5. Race: Daagher - Kalti Rose - Le Grand Louis
6. Race: Mutareva - Malinoise - Dimoitoo
7. Race: Spila Baie - Suavamente - Fordham
8. Race: Quietly Winner - Mister Fixit - Baphomet
more low grade racing today
a typical Monday´s sport on offer today, with most of the races at 4 meetings in the U.K. at a low level. Best event is in Ireland this evening, the listed Lenebane Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 21.00 CET at Roscommon. The Aga Khan´s Karasiyra (John Oxx/ Niall McCullough) may take this. She is one of 5 3yo´s - all of them fillies- in the field of 8. Grand Admiral (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) and Indiana Gal (P Martin/ Fran Berry) are the best of the older horses; both of them finished third to Precious Gem last time. As that one, as well as Grace O´Malley, who just got the better of Karasiyra last time, are trained by Dermot Weld, that trainer should have a good idea of whether his entry Sense of Purpose (Keagan Latham) would be good enough here. She has not run since April but with the Weld stable in great form, that should be no problem.
In the U.K., Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes, currently on the crest of a wave, can continue their winning run at Windsor´s evening meeting with Sequilla in the 10 furlongs handicap at 21.10 and Belgique half an hour later in the fillies maiden, However both these races are quite tricky, especially the latter, where there are 7 well-bred debutantes in the line-up.
Hughes can also score at Bath´s afternoon meeting with Roger Charlton´s Home Advantage in the 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 17.00; top-weight Comedy Act (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), from another in-form stable, is the obvious danger in this small field.
The best race at Ripon this evening is the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 21.20. Richard Fahey and Kevin Ryan both run two here, which makes things difficult, but we prefer Little Scotland (Paul Hanagan) and Jigajig (Amy Ryan) of their entries, while Flaneur (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) is a danger to all.
The only jumping today comes from Newton Abbot, where the main feature is a handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.45. This is a very open event with 13 runners. Our two against the field are Cold Mountain (Seamus Mullins/ Jimmy Derham) and Winchester Red (Evan Williams/ Donal Fahy), but the latter will have to jump straighter than last time at Uttoxeter, where he threw his chance away by jumping wildly to the left throughout.
Betting forecast Roscommon:
1. Race: Tiz The Shot - High Ruler - Jolie Jioconde
2. Race: When Not Iff - Belleau - Bob Younger
3. Race: Little Bug - July Days - Monivea
4. Race: All In Clover - Option Be - Proud Catch
5. Race: Karasiyra - Indiana Gal - Grand Admiral
6. Race: Humor Me Rene - At Present - Golden Nugget
7. Race: Dawn To Dance - Myrine - Bold Identity
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Rest of Chantilly
Main supporting feature at Chantilly is the Prix Chloe for 3yo fillies over 1800 metres at 16.22 CET. Mahabaya (Andreas Trybuhl/ Christophe Lemaire) is a interesting runner from Germany; she fnished third in a similar event at Cologne, but will have to improve on this form to trouble the top French fillies, notably Lily of the Valley (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon) - winner of her last 4 races - and Skia (Carlos Laffon-Parias/ Olivier Peslier). Another possible is Carioca (Marco Botti/ Frankie Dettori), not beaten far when 6th in the Prix de Sandringham. The Prix du Bois for 2yo´s over 1000 metres at 14.35 is unusually for France a group race likely to be dominated by small stables. The Guillemin stable has two entries, including Dream Catcher (Philippe Sogorb), unbeaten in 3 starts, including this CD. Spanish entry Irish Field (Delcher Sanchez/ Peslier) is also unbeaten, having won both her starts in Madrid, but our selection in Miss Liberty (Pia Brandt/ Maxime Gu yon), who has won her last 3 starts in eye-catching style.
Et voilà nos tuyaux pour les courses:
1ère course: Musharab - Dubai Heros - Musharab
2ème course: Munimanu - Ardha - Alhaweja
3ème course: Keratiya - Lone Cat - Dream Catcher
4ème course: Galeo Des Flandres - Inside Man - Un Air De Salsa
5ème course: Frozen Power - Lope De Vega - Hearts Of Fire
6ème course: Lily Of The Valley - Fadela Style - Banderille
7ème course: Fadelbu - Mondovino - Zarkamar
8ème course: Histoire - Calina Salsa - Shine A Line
9ème course: Genereuse Gold - Lisselan Galaxy - Sargasses
Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly
Easily the best race of the day in Europe is the Prix Jean Prat, a Group One event for 3yo´s over a mile at Chantilly at 15.42 CET. 8 runners here, including some of the top 3yo milers and including runners from the English, French, Irish and German 2000 Guineas, many of whom then ran well in the St. James´s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Favourite is Gestüt Ammerland´s Lope de Vega (Andre´ Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), who not only took the French classic but followed up in their Derby as well. It is slightly surprising to see him run here, and back over this distance, but his ultra-shrewd trainer certainly knows what he is doing and Ammerland are sending Peter Schiergen´ s Altair Star (Mikael Barzalona) as a pacemaker to ensure that there is an even pace. Game and consistent Dick Turpin (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) looks the obvious danger although he is held on Longchamp form, where he finished runner-up, as he also did at Newmarket and at Royal Ascot. Siyouni (Alain de Royer -Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) also ran in two of these races, but was disappointing, he was rated one of the top juveniles in Europe after winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October, but has not run up to this form so far in 2010. Xtension (Clive Cox/ Gerald Mossé) missed Ascot to wait for this race, and was not disgraced when 4th in the Newmarket Guineas and 5th in Ireland - behind Dick Turpin both times. Hearts of Fire (Pat Eddery/ Olivier Peslier) was an excellent third at Ascot after not getting a clear run and could go close here; in Germany he won last year at Baden-Baden and followed that up by winning a Group One in Italy. Another horse to have won in Germany is Godolphin´s Frozen Power (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) who won the Mehl-Mülhens-Rennen after an inspired ride. German form is often underestimated (not by us!) and he could well run a big race at a big price. Logically however this race should go to Lope de Vega with Dick Turpin very likely to be placed again.
Et voilà nos tuyaux pour les courses:
1ère course: Musharab - Dubai Heros - Musharab
2ème course: Munimanu - Ardha - Alhaweja
3ème course: Keratiya - Lone Cat - Dream Catcher
4ème course: Galeo Des Flandres - Inside Man - Un Air De Salsa
5ème course: Frozen Power - Lope De Vega - Hearts Of Fire
6ème course: Lily Of The Valley - Fadela Style - Banderille
7ème course: Fadelbu - Mondovino - Zarkamar
8ème course: Histoire - Calina Salsa - Shine A Line
9ème course: Genereuse Gold - Lisselan Galaxy - Sargasses
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Lancashire Oaks at Haydock Park
Away from Sandown, the best racing today is at Haydock, where the Group Two Lancashire Oaks for 3yo and older fillies and mares at 15.50 CET is the main feature. Barshiba (David Elsworth/ Hayley Turner) won this last year and can score again; her third place to the smart Harbinger at Royal Ascot was good form. Clowance (Roger Charlton/ Jamie Spencer) would be a big danger on her best form, but she normally needs soft ground to show this and has repeatedly been a non-runner when conditions were wrong. CD specialist Les Fazzani (Kevin Ryan/ Paul Hanagan) would also prefer more juice in the ground, although she just holds Pollys Mark (Clkive Cox/ Richard Hughes) on her latest running here. More dangerous could be the 3yo Champagnelifestyle (Barry and Michael Hills),10th in the Oaks (the real one) last time, and especially Irish raider Grace O´Malley (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), whose stable is in superb form and who won a similar race at Cork last time.
Hayley, who is riding at Munich tomorrow, also has a chance of winning the top handicap here, the Old Newton Cup at 16.25, on Ed Dunlop´s Red Cadeaux, who was badly hampered last time in the Chester Cup; this trip of 1 1/2 miles is in case more suitable. Red Merlin (Clive Cox/ John Fahy) won this event last year, and although unplaced in all starts since, could well land the double, while bottom-weight, the much improved Hanoverian Baron (Tony Newcombe/ David Probert) has been heavily backed and is another big danger.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Berling - Bowdler`S Magic - Anhar
2. Race: Barshiba - Polly`S Mark - Les Fazzani
3. Race: Hanoverian Baron - The Fonz - Submariner
4. Race: Bated Breath - Living It Large - Confessional
5. Race: Genki - Global City - Captain Dunne
6. Race: Hazelrigg - Foxy Music - Misaro
7. Race: Yabtree - Soho Theatre - Ninth House
Rest of Sandown
The rest of the Sandown card looks highly interesting, but very trappy for punters. The opening Group Three Coral Charge over 5 furlongs at 15.00 CET is another substandard event. Bould Mover (FJBrennan/ Graham Gibbns), one of two 3yo´s in the field of 6, was a close fifth in the King´s Stand at Royal Ascot on his only 2010 start and that form should be good enough. The ones to beat are Triple Aspect (William Haggas/ Liam Jones), who had no chance in the Golden Jubilee, and Group Therapy (Jeremy Noseda/ Shane Kelly), who made all to win last time at Beverley, but is moving up sharply in grade here.
Lady Darshaan (Stan Moore/ Jimmy Fortune) is top-rated in the listed race for 3yo fillies at 16.40, but we prefer the unbeaten Decorative (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson), who now meets much sterner opposition, but can probably improve further. Virginia Hall (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) and top-weight Marie de Medici (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon) also have their chances here.
Jarvis and Robinson can double up in the listed race over 2 miles at 17.15 with Opinion Poll, who has won 4 of his 6 races and is on an upward curve, However he would not want the ground to be too firm. Manighar (Luca Cumani/ Fallon) and top-weight Illustrious Blue (William Knight/ Jim Crowley) both look dangerous. The handicaps look as always extremely difficult. The mile race at 15.35 could lie between Acrostic (Cumani/ Fallon), last year´s winner, Set the Trend (Andrew Balding/ Fortune), just touched off at Epsom last time, and Opus Maximus (Royston Ffrench), one of four Mark Johnson entries. Ryan Moore is in great form at the moment and is always especially dangerous when riding for his father Gary; we therefore expect Water Gipsy to close in the 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.50.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Triple Aspect - Group Therapy - Bould Mover
2. Race: Acrostic - Set The Trend - Greyfriarschorista
3. Race: Twice Over - Dar Re Mi - Zacinto
4. Race: Decorative - Lady Darshaan - Marie De Medici
5. Race: Opinion Poll - Manighar - Aajel
6. Race: Eton Forever - Mass Rally - Imperial Delight
7. Race: Beachfire - Buffett - Lovers Causeway
Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park today
the Eclipse Stakes, run over10 furlongs this afternoon at 16.10 CET, has a long and proud history and is often one of the best races of the entire season. Who has forgotten Sea the Stars´ brilliant effort a year ago against Rip van Winkle? However, with all due respect, this looks a substandard renewal. Only 6 runners, and in all honesty only two of them -Twice Over (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Dar Re Mi (John Gosden/ William Buick)- have shown so far form that puts them into the top bracket. And in both those cases one must have reservations. Dar Re Mi is a 5yo mare and females have a very poor record here- in fact only 2 winners ever. On her only start in 2010 she won the Sheema Classic in Dubai, and she has plenty of top class form to her credit. However 10 furlongs on fast ground does not seem ideal for the daughter of Singspiel (who died yesterday), although she is in fact the only CD winner in the field.
With Twice Over, whose best performance was to win last year´s Champion Stakes, and more recently run second to Byword at Royal Ascot, the problem is that he has only ever won once at the top level and ran badly in this race last year. In addition he is vulnerable to a false pace, which is distinctly likely today. Tactics will undoubtedly play a major role, which will not be to his advantage. On the other hand, a repetition of his Royal Ascot effort would probably be good enough to win here, especially as he did not get a clear run there.
In theory, one of these two must win, but if they should happen to fail, Zacinto (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Viscount Nelson (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) will be there to pick up the pieces. Both represent smart connections with a good record in this event. Viscount Nelson, the only 3yo, has been unplaced in 3 classics this season, but was not disgraced when 5th in the French Derby. He is no Sea the Stars, but could still spring a surprise. Zacinto has not really run up to expectations, his fourth place in the Queen Anne, beaten a long way, was a decent effort but not normally good enough to win a race like this. Mawatheek (Marcus Tregoning/ Richard Hills) looks well held by Twice Over, and the stable´s form is not that great either, while Sri Putra (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson), whose team is in sparkling form, has never yet shown Group One ability. This is definitely a race to be very cautious about, but logic suggests that Twice Over will beat Dar Re Mi. I f there is to be a surprise that can only come from Viscount Nelson.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Triple Aspect - Group Therapy - Bould Mover
2. Race: Acrostic - Set The Trend - Greyfriarschorista
3. Race: Twice Over - Dar Re Mi - Zacinto
4. Race: Decorative - Lady Darshaan - Marie De Medici
5. Race: Opinion Poll - Manighar - Aajel
6. Race: Eton Forever - Mass Rally - Imperial Delight
7. Race: Beachfire - Buffett - Lovers Causeway
Friday, July 02, 2010
Sandown, Doncaster and Warwick
three flat meetings this afternoon in the U.K., but by far the best sport is to be seen at Sandown, where there are two listed races on the card. The first, for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.50 CET, has only 5 runners and should be won by Zebedee (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who won his first two races in good style before finishing a very respectable fifth at Royal Ascot, in one of the best juvenile races of the season so far. That form should be good enough for him to score here. The other listed event is for 3yo´s and up over 10 furlongs at 17.00 and has attracted a very strong field, with several runners proven at group level. Stotsfold (Walter Swinburn) did in fact a Group Three over this CD last time out, and is clearly the class act here. However he has to give weight away all round, which will not be easy. The two Godolphin runners are dangerous at these weights - Once More Dubai (Alan Munro) and Prince Siegfried (Ted Durcan), while Confront (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ry an Moore) is another threat, although there is a possibility that he is best at a mile. However the big danger should be Fatanah (Marcus Tregoning/ Martin Dwyer), who as a 3yo filly gets all the allowances - which means a whopping 22 lbs from Stotsfold. She was only 6th in the Ribblesdale over 1 1/2 miles, but this trip is better.
At Doncaster we like the look of Mahadee (Clive Brittain/ Neil Callan) in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.35. He came back to form with an easy win at Salisbury last time, for which he has a 6 lbs penalty today, but we think that he is up to it.
Another recent winner, and also penalised 6 lbs, is Wanchai Whisper (PR Hedger/ Andrew Heffernan) in the 5 1/2 furlongs handicap at 16.10 at Warwick. One can hardly say that she is unexposed ,as this 3yo is running today for the 23rd time(!), but she won so well at Windsor at the weekend that she could well go in again.
Betting forecast Sandown:
1. Race: Rocket Rob - Secret Asset - Osiris Way
2. Race: Zebedee - Jamesway - Phoebs
3. Race: Introvert - Jehanbux - Roman Eagle
4. Race: Confront - Stotsfold - Fatanah
5. Race: Verdant - Tartan Gunna - Australia Day
6. Race: Swinging Hawk - Outrageous Request - Crocus Rose
Thursday, July 01, 2010
4 meetings this evening
plenty of racing this evening, with Epsom, Newbury and Redcar in the U.K. and Leopardstown in Ireland. The last-named track stages the best race, a listed event for 2yo´s at 20.30 CET. Only 5 runners here, including Mark Johnston´s Stentorian (Fran Berry) from Britain. Johnston always means business when he sends runners overseas, but on form he should not beat Aidan O´Brien´ s Zoffany (Seamus Heffernan), who, after winning his first two races in good style, was certainly not disgraced when 6th in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Another likely winner here is Invincible Ash (Mike Halford/ Gary Carroll), who beat a huge field in good style at the Curragh at the weekend and should not be troubled to follow up in the fillies race over 6 furlongs at 19.30.
The most interesting event in England is the 7 furlongs conditions race at 20.35 at Newbury. The small field includes a Group One winner, Lord Shanakill (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who ran well last time when 12th of 24 in the Golden Jubilee and should be better suited by this slightly longer trip. However we are not sure that he can concede 19lbs to the progressive 3yo´s Dafeef (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) and Yaa Wayl (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson).
At Epsom, We Have a Dream (Willie Muir/ George Baker) can take the 6 furlongs handicap at 20.25. He was 4th over this CD on Derby Day and this opposition looks less demanding. We also like Lang Shining (Jamie Osborne/ Sophie Doyle) in the claiming race at 21.30 here. This one, previously group class for Sir Michael Stoute, finally came back to form when winning last week at Chester and can follow up here.
The first nurseries (2yo handicaps) of the year are run this evening at Redcar. These arw generally poor betting mediums, but for the record our tentative suggestions are Coconut Ice (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) over 6 furlongs at 19.40 and Puddle Duck (Kevin Ryan/ Graham Gibbons) over 5 at 20.45.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kissable - Inca Princess - Dance Secretary
2. Race: Invincible Ash - Glorified - Miss Velocity
3. Race: Purple Land - Roicead - Miss Faustina
4. Race: Zoffany - Sydney Harbour - Stentorian
5. Race: Rum Raisin - Cool Star - Inwood
6. Race: Spring Hawk - Bay Swallow - Lynott
7. Race: Caesar`S Song - Huckle Buck Shoe - Dreamy Gent
Haydock, Yarmouth and Perth (N.H.)
Irish trainers almost swept the board yesterday at Perth, and it could be more of the same today, the second day of the summer jumps meeting at the pretty Scottish track. Gordon Elliott and Paul Carberry teamed up for 3 winners and they can continue the good work with Chicago Grey in the 3 mile novice chase at 16.50 CET. He is trying this distance for the first time, but has been running in top company and can outclass this opposition. One of the stable´s winners yesterday was King Roonah, and he is also entered in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase half an hour later under a 7 lbs penalty. If he turns out again, he should score; otherwise we go with Quito du Tresor (Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies), who has the unusual form figures of 3131313; this does not of course mean that he is certain to win this time, but he should certainly give a good account of himself.
The flat racing this afternoon is low quality, but Michael Bell and Hayley Turner can win the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 with the consistent Tell Halaf, slightly unlucky last time, and can follow up an hour later in the 3yo handicap over 9 furlongs with Al Dafa, but this race looks trickier, and both Aktia (Luca Cumani/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) and the unexposed Mme de Stael (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) could be dangerous.
Bst rc t Haydock is the mil hndovap at 16.30, which is very opn and ll 8 runners cn b given a chance. Ezdeyaad (Alan Swnbank/ Peter Mcdonald) is in great form and has won 4 of his last 5 races, but he is lumbered with top weight as a result, and the lightly-raced 3yo´s Ginger Jack (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) - who was well behind him last time - and especially Rumool (Clive Brittain/ Neil Callan) must be feared. Ryan Moore is at Haydock, primarily to ride for Sir Michael Stoute, who has Official Style and Warm Memories entered in the two maiden races at 17.00 and 17.30 respectively; they are not among the stable´s stars but both look capable of winning a race soon, possibly today.
Betting forecast Haydock:
1. Race: Ting Ting - Mount Athos - Harare
2. Race: Madany - Soraaya - Hortensia
3. Race: King Of Eden - Tyfos - Legal Eagle
4. Race: Ezdeyaad - Kyllachy Star - Benandonner
5. Race: Official Style - Captivator - City Ground
6. Race: Warm Memories - Munsarim - Swiftly Done
7. Race: Lady Eclair - Plymouth Rock - Just Rob