Sunday, July 11, 2010

listed race at Tipperary

4 of today´s 5 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland are N.H. meetings, the exception being the Tipperary fixture, where the main feature is a listed race over 5 furlongs for 2yo´s at 16.45 CET. This is not an especially strong field, and the lone British raider Waking Warrior (Kevin Ryan/ Declan McDonogh) must have a chance, even though his only win came at Southwell. Moonlit Garden (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who ran well at Royal Ascot but was well beaten over 6 furlongs last time, looks best of the Irish. Surprisingly Aidan O´Brien has no runners in the main races, but can still score a first and last race double with Master of Hounds and Dance on By, both partnered by Johnny Murtagh. The former has been a beaten favourite twice running but can recover those losses now, while the latter, who had no chance in a listed race last time, meets much lesser opposition; she needs to win a race, as she is an own-sister to High Chaparall and therefore a valuable broodmare prospect.
Gordon Elliott, who has his string in tremendous form, looks the trainer to follow over jumps. He has an excellent record at Perth, and can score there with Nedzer s Return (Joey Elliott) in the novice hurdle at 16.10, who has already won 3 times over this CD, Long Wait (Jason Maguire) in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.40 and Shopfrontspecialist (Keith Donoghue) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 17.40. Elliott can also take the main event at Sligo with Riverscape (Paul Carberry), who looks very much on the up.
Long Wait has been raised a massive 19 lbs for his last CD win but won with so much in hand that he can go in again. Another heavily penalised runner is Restart (Lucinda Featherstone/ Tom Phelan), who can complete a quick CD treble in the handicap hurdle at 17.20 at Southwell. He can make the most of the 15lbs he receives from Majestic Mayhem (George Moore/ Barry Keniry).
There could be some German-bred winners at Stratford. Passato (Miss JD Davis/ Tony McCoy), a son of Acatenango, has won his last two races very easily (including this CD) and can win again at 16.30, although this is quite an open race. We also fancy that the Lando son Nordwind (Evan Williams/ Donal Fahy) will run well in the handicap hurdle half an hour earlier. He made no show on his recent comeback, but won 3 races last summer and loves this fast ground.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Master Of Hounds - Sherwood Forest - Hanginthebalance
2. Race: Anam Chara - Spirit Of Xaar - Full Title
3. Race: Prince Of Fashion - Slapper - Initiation
4. Race: Moonlit Garden - Waking Warrior - Mr Man In The Moon
5. Race: Nidian - Celerina - Ibelieveinmiracles
6. Race: Flash Mcgahon - Polar Explorer - Pimlico Sound
7. Race: Dance On By - Edallora - Dearest Girl