King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot this afternoon

For the last third of the 20th century, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group One, 3yo´s and up, 1 1/2 miles, to be run this afternoon at 17.25 CET at Ascot) was the undisputed highlight of the British summer season. This was the race in which the top 3yo´s took on the top older horses and the best Derby winners - Nijinsky, Mill Reef and other champions such as Dancing Brave and Brigadier Gerard- proved their mettle.

However in recent years the race has lost some of its glamour, as more and more trainers now concentrate on the valuable autumn races and give their stars a rest in the summer. No Derby winner has run here since 2003, and precious few 3yo´s at all.

Today´s field however includes not only the latest Epsom winner Workforce (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), but also the winner of the Irish equivalent Cape Blanco (Aidan O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue, replacing suspended stable jockey Johnny Murtagh).The pair have already met, in York´s Dante Stakes in May when the O´Brien horse ran out an easy winner, but Workforce, who ran very green and had problems with his bit, can be excused that below par performance. Since then Cape Blanco has run badly in the French Derby (no obvious excuses) but fought on well to defeat two stable-mates at the Curragh. Workforce has not been seen since his 7 lengths success, very impressive to the eye, at Epsom.

The problem is that the form of both the English and Irish Derby looks rather suspect; it seems quite likely that the French have the top 3yo´s this year, even though the official handicappers have given Workforce by far the best rating of Europe´s classic crop. Unfortunately only 4 older horses take on this pair, after Dar Re Mi (who we would have fancied) had be withdrawn yesterday with a stone bruise.

Best of them has to be Harbinger (Sir Michael Stoute/ Olivier Peslier), unbeaten in 3 starts this season, most recently in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this CD. He is tremendously improved but unproven at this level. Stoute also saddles Confront (Richard Mullen) as a pacemaker for Workforce. Stoute saddled the first 3 last year and it is possible that he can repeat this trick, but we doubt it.

The other two runners, the 7yo Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Richard Hughes) and the 4yo filly Daryakana (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Gerald Mossé) could well be the flies in the ointment. They met in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out, finishing second and third (in that order) in a desperately close finish. Youmzain was finishing runner-up in a Group One for the seventh time (including 3 times in the "Arc") and his problem is that he rarely wins. In fact his last victory - at St. -Cloud - was over two years ago when Hughes was also in the saddle. He is a strong finisher who needs a very fast pace (not certain) and a large field, clearly not the case today, to show his best form.

This leaves the Aga Khan filly and she is our selection. She has done very little wrong in her career, winning all 5 starts last year and improving from race to race, finally taking the Hong Kong Vase. Although she has been third on her both her 2010 starts, we believe that she still has improvement in her and consider her to be the best bet in the race at the likely odds of around 14-1.