Back on Monday!

This column is taking the rest of the weekend off and will be back on Monday.

Irish Derby today

The Irish Derby will be run today at the rather unusual time of 19.30 CET as the 7th of 8 races at the Curragh. The obvious and logical favourite here is Ruler of the World (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), still unbeaten after 3 starts including the Derby at Epsom, in which he defeated Libertarian (Elaine Burke/ William Buick) and Galileo Rock (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), both of whom were running on well at the finish.

However we see no reasomn why threy shouöd reverse the form, as Ruler of the Eorld was not sdtoppi9ng either and won fair and square. His trainer has dominated this race in recent seasons - in fact he has won for the last 7 years and we expect no. 8 this evening. The placed horses from Epsom should again run well, but Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) looks the best each-way alternative.

There is also a full progamme from the U.K., with the Northumberland Plate, aka the Pitmans Derby, at 16.15 at Newcastle the big betting race of the day. With a full field of 20, this 2 mile handicap is one of the toughest events of the year for punters. German-breds Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Paul Mulrennan), also a useful hurdler, and Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) are just 2 of many possibilities.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dove Mountain - Trikala - Tarn
2. Race: Caponata - Count Of Limonade - Elleval
3. Race: Hanky Panky - Gathering Power - Curly Wee
4. Race: Gabriel`s Lad - Burn The Boats - Via Ballycroy
5. Race: Coach House - Stubbs - Focus On Venice
6. Race: Slade Power - Maarek - Move In Time
7. Race: Ruler Of The World - Libertarian - Trading Leather
8. Race: Call Me Bubbles - Abou Ben - Justification

Group race at the Curragh

Plenty of racing today and the best sport will be on offer in the evening, especially at the Curragh on the first day of the Irish Derby Meeting. The main event is the Group Three International Stakes over 10 furlongs at 20.30 CET, but there is a most disappointing turnout here, with only 4 runners, 3 of them owned by Coolmore. Most Improved (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is the likely favourite here; he won the St. James´s Palace Stakes last year for Brian Meehan but lost form afterwards and is having his first run for the O´Brien´s now. He is also trying this distance for tjhe first time, and although he is clear best on ratings, frankly, we would rather give this race a miss. Rain is expected in several parts of the U.K. today, so punters should be prepared for a change in the going and possible non-runners.

Chester, Newmarket and Newcastle are also preparing for their better class cards tomorrow. At the last-named track, the Gosforth Park Cup, a 5 furlongs handicap, is the main event this evening. This looks really tricky with 15 runners, all distance specialists. Ex-Italian Jiroft (Robert Cowell/ Graham) is difficult to assess, but he won´t find it easy under top weight. We would rather rely on the Easterby´s, with Tim saddling two runners and Mick one; Tim´s Captain Dunne (Duran Fentiman) has not won since landing the Epsom Dash two years ago, but is very well handicapped on that form and we make him our selection. The listed race for fillies at 20.15 looks a Godolphin benefit, as Saeed bin Suroor saddles 3 of the 9 runners; Prussian (Michael Barzalona) could be the best of them.

Godolphin could also be on the scorecard at Newmarket with Mar Mar (William Buick) in the 6 furlongsd race for fillies at 21.05. Half an hour earlier, London Bridge (Jo Hughes/ Ryan Moore) can complete a four-timer in the 1 mile 5 furlongs handicap; he is up 21 lbs for winning his last 3 races, but continues to improve. Last time out he was an easy winner from Broughton (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton); that one, once the highest priced yearling at the BBAG sale at Baden-Baden, runs 20 minutes later at Chester, and can give the form a boost.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pirita - Terrific - Snow
2. Race: One True Love - Wexford Opera - Dr Funkenstein
3. Race: Illustrate - Speed Dream - Yulong Baoju
4. Race: Leah Claire - Star Power - King Of The Romans
5. Race: Most Improved - Flying The Flag - Aloof
6. Race: Fionnuar - Sacred Dragon - The Fox Tully
7. Race: Wannabe Better - The Vatican - Convocate

Warwick and Newcastle

6 meetings today but the main action this afternoon is at Warwick and Newcastle. The top event at Warwick is the listed 7 furlongs race for 3yo fillies at 16.40 CET, with a tie-in to 1,000 Guineas form in 3 countries. Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ James Doyle) was fourth in the Newmarket version, Exactement 9th at the Curragh and Senafe (Marco Botti/ Neil Callan) third at Düsseldorf.

Senafe has since run badly at Royal Ascot - two more of these were unplaced in the same race - and it is clear that the Newmarket form of Winning Express is far superior to anything any of the others can offer, especially as ther winner there, Sky Lantern, confirmed the form in no uncertain manner at Ascot. A possible opponent is Victrix Ludorum (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), just beaten at Windsor last time and representing the Sky Lantern Team, but Winning Express only has to reproduce her Newmarket form- or for that matter her second place last year in the Cheveley Park, to win here.

Newcastle´s 3-day Northumberland Plate meeting starts today. Main event on today´s card is the mile handicap at 16.00. Top weight is Validus (Luca Cumani/ Jamie Spencer), who was hampered on his only start this season, at Epsom´s April meeting over 10 furlongs. He is lightly-raced and not far off listed class and can win here despite the weight concessions. Galician (Mark Johnszton/ Graham Lee) and Dubai Dynamo (Riuth carr/ Peter McDonald) have been running almost every week; they keep their form well but look exposed, and bigger dangers could come from Dance and Dance (Ed Vaughan/ Joe Fanning) and Balducci (David Simcock/ Martin Lane) both of whom have been dropped in the weights after some below-par performances. However our suggestion is My Freedom (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) with the Godolphin runners now in top form. He has not run since the Meydan meeting in February but goes well fresh.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Saigon City - Ziekhani - Muthmir
2. Race: Buy Art - Winnie Perry - Buy Art
3. Race: Alnoomaas - Indian Affair - Picture Dealer
4. Race: Victrix Ludorum - Exactement - Sorella Bella
5. Race: Whitefall - Al Thumama - Echo Brava
6. Race: Paphos - Dutch Mistress - Tartan Trip

historic races at Carlisle

Carlisle stages its best racing of the year today. and the Carlisle Bell and the Cumberland Plate are two of the oldest historic races in Britain. They are now only class 4 handicaps, but quite valuable, and today´s fields, over a mile at 17.05 CET and over just short of 1 1/2 miles half an hour later respectively, look very competitive. Silvery Moon (Tim Easterby/ Robert Winston) was only narrowly beaten in the Bell last year and now reappears under top-weight. He is not the most consistent, but ran well in a similar race at York last time and has probably been specially trained for today´s race. He goes on the short list, together with Pacific Heights (Brian Ellison/ Paul Pickard), a very easy winner of the trial over this CD but now 10 lbs higher, and Restaurateur (Andrew Balding/ Joe Fanning), who has made a long journey to run here. Brian Ellison launches quite a strong attack here, and apart from his 3 runners in the Bell, he has 4 in the Plate. We are quite tempted by Spanish Duke (Dale Swift), who looks very well handicapped on his old form for John Dunlop, although his recent form is poor. Another ex-Dunlop runner, Aazif (Donald McCain/ Graham Lee) could be the main danger; this is the first time he has run on the flat for his new trainer, but he has been in good form over hurdles.

Salisbury also has a historic race on the card, the Bibury Cup, now a 4yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 17.25. This has quite a disappointing turnout, and while Ennistown (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mickael Barzalona) has the best form, he has an awful lot of weight; we just prefer bottom-weight Snowy Dawn (Tony Hollinshead/ Jimmy Quinn). The mile handicap here at 16.50 is possibly a better race, but looks very tricky. Lord of the Shadows (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) has a poor strike rate, but could still win this off a reasonable mark.

The best race run today in Britain and Ireland is the listed race for 3yo filllies at 20.30 this evening at Naas, a Trial for the Irish Oaks. As always, Aidan O´Brien has a strong hand here,. and we expect Moth, 4th last time in the Oaks at Epsom and ridden by the trainer´s son Joseph, to win here from his stable companion. the once-raced Venus de Milo (Seamus Heffernan).

Carlisle - betting forecast:
1. Race: Searchlight - Disclosure - Atheera
2. Race: Emily Davison - Stoney Quine - Simply Black
3. Race: Avon Breeze - Ashpan Sam - Another Wise Kid
4. Race: Bartack - Hakuna Matata - Day Of The Eagle
5. Race: Pacific Heights - Restaurateur - Springheel Jake
6. Race: Cousin Khee - Aazif - Warlu Way
7. Race: Alluring Star - Elle Woods - Shesastar

5 more poor meetings today

Once again, very little to write home about with regards to the racing at today´s 5 meetings. This afternoon we have low level cards at Beverley and Brighton; in both cases 6 of the 7 races are poor handicaps, which are generally not ideal for betting purposes. At Brighton Green Earth (Paul Phelan/ Jemma Marshall) can complete a quick four-timer at 15.45 CET, as he still appears to be well handicapped and obviously goes well at this track. Dorback (Violet Jordan/ Martin Harley) has won twice within the last week and can also win again, despite a 12 lbs penalty, at 16,45. At Beverley we like top-weight Gala Casino Star (Geoff Harker/ Jordan Nason) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00; he is always ridden by this apprentice, the owner´s son, and is now back to his last winning mark.

Even this evening´s Newbury card is not much better. There could be some decent performers in the two races for 2yo fillies, but as most of them are making their debuts, they are no good as a betting medium. Imperial Glance (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy) was an easy winner last week at Salisbury and can follow up at 21.00 with the same apprentice on board and no penalty. Squeeze my Brain (Ralph Beckett/ Jamie Spencer) was slowly away last time, biut if she gets off on terms now can be another winner for the Qatari team at 21.35.

There is jumping this evening at Newton Abbot, and the two interesting runners here are Baby Mix (Tom George/ Noel Fehily) and Cry of Freedom (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan) - both useful handicap hurdlers who met in the hot Swinton Hurdle at Haydock in early May. Both were unplaced there are, then ran over fences - Baby Mix winning easily over this CD and he can follow up in the novice chase at 20.05. However Cry of Freedom did not seem to take to chasing and reverts to hurdles here at 20.35, and despite a huge weight should be able to defeat these opponents if back to his old form.

In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting at Ballinrobe, with 4 flat races followed by 4 over hurdles. One True Love (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is not one of the stable stars, but should be able to take the fillies maiden at 19.10. She has been runner-up on all her 3 starts this season; this is usually a bad sign but we will give her the benefit of the doubt, as she was never beaten far in large fields and today´s opposition does not look strong.

Brighton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Steely - Lindsay`s Dream - Panettone
2. Race: Green Earth - Whinging Willie - Hawaiian Freeze
3. Race: Munaawib - Bougaloo - Surrey Dream
4. Race: Monumental Man - Red Refraction - Bubbly Ballerina
5. Race: Zafraaj - Aweebitowinker - Douneedahand
6. Race: Russian Bullet - My Own Way Home - Verus Delicia
7. Race: The Mongoose - Decent Fella - Wishformore

5 poor meetings today

Monday rarely sees good racing staged and today´s cards are certainly among the weakest we have seen all season. Surprisingly, several top Newmarket trainers send runners to Wolverhampton this afternoon, and Lady Cecil can take the 3yo maiden there at 17.15 CET with Misfer (Tom Queally), while Chord Chant (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mickael Barzalona) looks the better of two Godolphin 2yo´s running half an hour earlier.

The card at Chepstow is just as poor, but at least the track is graced by the presence of champion jockey Richard Hughes, and he might land a hat-trick on Hughie Morrison´s Burnham at 15.30, Richard Hannon´s Majesty at 16.30 and Sylvester Kirk´s Secret Rebel another hour later.

Hughes moves on to the evening meeting at Windsor, where his best ride is possibly Hannon´s Bursleden in the 3yo handicap over 1 172 miles at 22.10, but here we prefer top-weight Couloir Extreme (Gary and Ryan Moore), penalised 6 lbs for a very easy win here last week over a slightly shorter distance. Ryan Moore can also take the other 3yo handicap, this time over a mile at 20.40, with Jeremy Noseda´s lightly-raced Messila Star.

Our German-breds yesterday did not do so well, but Full Speed (Philip Kirby/ Declan Cannon) must have an each-way chance this evening at 20.50 at Thirsk, while the much-improved Running Reef ( Tracy Waggott/ Barry McHugh) can complete a quick hat-trick half an hour later.

There is also Irish jumping this evening at Kilbeggan; obviously Willier Mullins will not be bringing his stars out at this time of year, but he could still have a hat-trick here with Great Jones at 19.00, Alelchi Inois an hour later and Paparazzi Kid, who makes his fencing debut at 22.00; all three are partnered by Ruby Walsh.

Wolverhampton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Waahej - Knox Overstreet - Underwritten
2. Race: Max The Machine - Saga Lout - Dangerous Age
3. Race: Work Ethic - Archie Stevens - Dream Vale
4. Race: Bewitchment - Wickhambrook - Chord Chart
5. Race: Mount Tiger - Misfer - Banreenahreenkah
6. Race: Edgware Road - Just Five - Beauchamp Xerxes
7. Race: Mucky Molly - Whipphound - Bill Of Rights
8. Race: Very First Blade - Basle - Coastal Passage

Back to earth with a bump

After the splendours of Royal Ascot, we are back to earth with a bump today, when 3 of the 4 meetings are low-level N.H. cards, while the sole flat meeting is at Pontefract, where last year´s winners reappear to contest the two top races - Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) in the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET and Orsippus (M.Smith/ Neil Callan) in the 2 1/4 mile handicap half an hour later. Both should go well again, but we will oppose them with Main Sequence (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) and German-bred Kayef (Michael Scudamore/ Paul Mulrennan) respectively. Brown Panther was beaten favourite in the 2011 German Derby, while Main Sequence was runner-up to Camelot at Epsom last year; while we all know that last year´s Derby form has not worked out at all, it is probably still better than a fifth place at Hamburg. Orsippus has been in good form over hurdles this year, but Kayef has been dropped in the weights and seems very nicely handicapped here.

Over jumps, 3 German-breds that we have been following run at Worcester. Double Handful (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) runs in the novice chase at 15.20; he also ran in the German Derby and since moving to the U.K. has won 3 times over hurdles, all with this jockey aboard. He ran well enough on his fencing debut and can get off the mark here. Escardo (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) runs in the following race, a handicap chase over 2 miles; he is no star, but ran well enough at Hexham 8 days ago to suggest that he has a solid each-way chance here. Another half hour on and Bridgwater saddles Engai in the maiden hurdle with Jake Hodson up. In theory he should not win here, as several of his opponents are higher rated, but he has been in good form recently and we think he is another good each-way bet.

A German-bred at Hexham, but with a lesser chance, is Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Eddie Lineham) in the handicap chase at 17.00; he is very inconsistent and ran badly here last week, but that was over hurdles, and he is better over fences. He could be an interesting long shot here. Our main fancy at Hexham however is Hi George (Malcom Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) in the handicap hurdle at 16.30, who has been running in better company. There are huge fields at the Irish fixture at Gowran Park and winners look hard to find. Mister Nibble was a useful bumper and if he takes to hurdling can win the opening race at 15.15 for the Steven/ Stuart Crawford team.

Pontefract - betting forecast:
1. Race: Sunrise Star - Dutch Courage - Chantrea
2. Race: Dare To Achieve - The Welsh Wizard - Near Time
3. Race: Salutation - Carthaginian - Gabrial The Great
4. Race: Brown Panther - Main Sequence - Souviens Toi
5. Race: Tartan Jura - Cloudy Spirit - Art History
6. Race: Kikonga - Miss Cap Estel - Of Course Darling
7. Race: Magical Rose - Teetotal - Chasing Dreams

Rest of Royal Ascot

The card traditionally ends with the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2 3/4 miles at 18.35 CET, the longest flat race in Britain and Ireland, which usually goes to a plodder, frequently one that had been running over jumps in the winter. However a certain amount of ability is also necessary, and last year´s winner Simenon went on to run a close second in the Gold Cup this week. Runner-up a year ago was French raider Shahwardi (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Frankie Dettori), who has been running respectably in decent French staying races, and if he can repeat his 2012 form, he should win this. There are 19 runners, but the only possible dangers we can see are Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), not far off listed class and a winning hurdler, and Junior (David Pipe/ Ryan Moore), a good staying chaser who also ran in the Irish Grand National. After that, he will think this race is a piece of cake, but Shahwardi has to be the selection.

The Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at 16.05 is the main supporting feature, but the field this year looks a bit substandard. Noble Mission (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) is Frankel´s brother, but not nearly as good and probably not up to Group Two standard. Sir Michael Stoute has a good record here, but his Sir John Hawkwood (Ryan Moore) is moving up sharply in grade after winning two handicaps and needs to show huge improvement. Universal (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is improved and just holds Dandino (Marco Botti/ Dettori) on their latest running, but we cannot believe that is good enough. Our two hopes are are the lightly-raced Ektihaam (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan), an easy listed winner over this CD last time and one of the few who are not exposed here, and especially Mount Athos (Luca Cumani/ Jamie Spencer), a very tough and genuine performer, who finished fifth in last year´s Melbourne Cup after a rough passage. That race is no doubt his target again, and this trip is possibly o n the short side, but he is top-rated here and we think he can win.

The handicaps are as tough as ever, especially the Wokingham Stakes over 6 furlongs at 17.25. 28 runners, most of whom have met before, and the effects of the draw - if any- still unclear. This race is almost group class, so we shall stick to the two recent group race winners, the top-weights Hitchens (David Barron/ Johnny Murtagh) - won at the Curragh last time- and Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley), who won here at Munich. Neither is especially well handicapped, but one can make a case for almost any of the others as well. Royal Rock (Chris Wall/ George Baker) won a group race over this CD in 2011 and belongs on every short list. The 1 1/2 mile handicap at 18.00 is another puzzle. John Hammond sent over Hammerfest (Jim Crowley) to run second here last year, but he is now higher in the weights and badly drawn; however he should get involved, and so can Rye House (Stoute/ Moore), Caravan Rolls On (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Spencer) and Ustura (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bunker - Somewhat - Friendship
2. Race: Mount Athos - Ektihaam - Universal
3. Race: Society Rock - Gordon Lord Byron - Sea Siren
4. Race: Duke Of Firenze - Gabriel`s Lad - Rex Imperator
5. Race: Rye House - Ustura - Lahaag
6. Race: Shahwardi - Chiberta King - No Heretic

Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot

The Diamond Jubilee over 6 furlongs at 16.45 CET is the top race on the final day of the Royal Ascot meeting. This race used to be known as the Cork & Orrery but has been upgraded to Group One and has become the centrepiece of Saturday´s racing since the decision was made - for the Queen´ s Golden Jubilee- to extend the meeting with a fifth day. The Queen has lived on and celebrated her Diamond Jubilee last year (i.e. 60 years on the throne), hence the change of name.

With 18 runners this is a very international field, with France,Ireland, the UAE and Australia all represented. The brilliant Australian mare Black Caviar won last year from Moonlight Cloud, with Soul (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silovestre de Sousa) fourth, Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Kieren Fallon) fifth, Krypton Factor (Fawzi Nass/ Luke Morris) sixth and Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Jim Crowley) seventh. Society Rock blew his chance with a very slow start, but would normally have been very close to the first two; he won this race in 2011 and assuming he has no problems at the start this time, ought to win again. Obviously he is not 100% reliable, but he is the best horse in the field and started off 2013 with a good win at York. Connections are optimistic and so are we.

Australians have a good record in these big sprints, so the mare Sea Siren (John O´Shea/ Ryan Moore) múst be respected; she has the best jockey aboard, but she is no Black Caviar. Henri-Alex Pantall has frequently had long-shots placed in big races (including here yesterday) but it would still be a miracle if Gammarth (Fabrice Veron) were to be in the frame here. Krypton Factor is more of a Meydan specialist, and possibly not quite as strong as he was a year ago, so if there is to be no British winner, then it can only be another one from Ireland in our opinion. Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ William Buick) looks clearly the best of their runners; he won the Prix de la Foret last year, but this field looks stronger and he has twice finished behind Society Rock. He could well be placed, but basically everything points to Society Rock, and if he gets off on terms, he should win.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bunker - Somewhat - Friendship
2. Race: Mount Athos - Ektihaam - Universal
3. Race: Society Rock - Gordon Lord Byron - Sea Siren
4. Race: Duke Of Firenze - Gabriel`s Lad - Rex Imperator
5. Race: Rye House - Ustura - Lahaag
6. Race: Shahwardi - Chiberta King - No Heretic

Rest of Royal Ascot

The Group Two King Edward VII Stakes over 1 1/2 miles for 3yo´s at 16.05 CET is also known as the Ascot Derby, but ironically history shows that horses that have run well at Epsom frequently run badly here. For that reason one should be cautious about backing Battle of Marengo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) at odds-on; he was fourth in the Derby, and both that performance and his previous form make him almost unbeatable here in theory. Not only that, this is one of the few Ascot races in which O´Brien has a poor record and Battle of Marengo has to concede weight as well. He will still probably win, but we would prefer to go for an each-way alternative and our choice here is Mutashaded (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan), who is unbeaten in two starts and probably much better than his rating. We also like his pedigree, as he is out of a sister to Samum and other German stars.

The Queen´s Vase at 18.00 is also for 3yo´s and over much further - 2 miles - a trip that hardly any of these have tackled, so one has to take a lot on trust here. The race this year is being run "in Memory of Sir Henry Cecil", who won it several times in the 1980s and 1990s - but this century only 4 trainers have been successful: O´Brien, Mark Johnston, Saeed bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute. Three of them have runners today and O´Brien´s Leading Light, who has to concede 3 lbs all round, is the obvious favourite- although he has never yet run beyond 10 furlongs - but the 3 Johnston runners must all be feared. Obviously a win for Disclaimer, trained by Cecil´s widow Jane, would be highly popular and is by no means impossible.

O´Brien also has a good chance in the opening Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies with Wonderfully, who impressed us greatly when finishing fast to win on his debut; Joyeuse (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) has the best pedigree in the race, being a half-sister to Frankel, while Sandiva (Richard Fahey/ Frankie Dettori) is the only runner to have won twice and is best on ratings.

The two handicaps ayre as difficult as ever and we have had absolutely no luck so far at this Meeting, but for the record our 3 against the field at 17.25 are Forgotten Voice (Nicky Henderson/ Johnny Murtagh), Albasharah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Fattsota (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), and at 18.35 Berriewhittle (david barron/ Graham Gibbons), Emilio Largo (James Fanshawe/ Queally) and Enrol (Stoute/ Moore).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sandiva - Joyeuse - Wonderfully
2. Race: Greatwood - Hillstar - Contributer
3. Race: Just The Judge - Sky Lantern - Big Break
4. Race: Albasharah - Dick Doughtywylie - Sheikhzayedroad
5. Race: Leading Light - Disclaimer - Nichols Canyon
6. Race: Enrol - Emilio Largo - Democretes

Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot

the Coronation Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile at 16.45 CET is the only Group One today at Royal Ascot and with 17 runners is a very open contest. The two key races here are clearly the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May and the Irish equivalent 3 weeks later. In the fofmer race, Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) ran on strongly to defeat Just the Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) by half a length with Snow Queen (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) fifth and Maureen (Hannon/ Frankie Dettori) sixth. Sky Lantern has not run since, but Just the Judge reappeared to win in very good style at the Curragh, with Rehns Nest (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) runner-up, Big Break (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) fourth, Mizzava (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) fifth, Maureen again sixth.
Logically one could expect the two Guineas winners to dominate here, but the trouble is that this race -unlike most of the mile races at the meeting- is run over the round course, and they have had the bad luck to have drawn the two outside stalls, which is a huge disadvantage. French challenger Siyenica (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) comes into the reckoning, but the two we really like are both owned by Khaled Abdullah: Big Break, who caught the eye in a big way at the Curragh, and Pavlosk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who is unbeaten in two starts; she is taking a huge leap in class here but looks well worth her place in this field. Big Break is a sister to the super-consistent Famous Name and we think that she is the most solid bet here. The track was watered last night, there has been some light rain this morning and the ground will probably not be as fast as yesterday- although still good to firm. This can also be to Big Break´s advantage.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sandiva - Joyeuse - Wonderfully
2. Race: Greatwood - Hillstar - Contributer
3. Race: Just The Judge - Sky Lantern - Big Break
4. Race: Albasharah - Dick Doughtywylie - Sheikhzayedroad
5. Race: Leading Light - Disclaimer - Nichols Canyon
6. Race: Enrol - Emilio Largo - Democretes

rest of Royal Ascot

There are 2 more German runners today at Royal Ascot, and while we are a bit dubious about the two in the Gold Cup, we certainly expect Chopin (Andreas Wöhler/ Jamie Spencer) and Ideal (Ferdinand Leve/ Andrasch Starke) to give a good account of themselves in the Tercentenary Stakes for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 18.00 CET. This is for horses who have not won a Group One or Two and Chopin is the only Group 3 winner in the field, which means that he has to give away 4 lbs all round. However he is still the class act in this field, as he was most impressive when winning the Dr. Busch in the spring- with Ideal well held- but ran even better when a close 7th in the Derby at Epsom. Had the race been run over today´s distance, he would certainly have been placed and we cannot see him running unplaced in this weaker company. Ideal won in good style at Hoppegarten over a mile and should be suited by this trip; he could also run into a place at a much longer price. The main dangers shou ld be Remote (John Gosden/ William Buick), Indian Chief (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and French raider Shikapour (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire).

The Irish are enjoying an extremely successful week so far, and this can continue today with Coach House ´(Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) in the opening Norfolk Stakes at 15.30 and Alive Alive O (Tommy Stack/ Fran Berry) in the Ribblesdale at 16.05; Green Door (Olly Stevens/ Jim Crowley) and Riposte (Lady Jane Cecil/ Tom Queally) are the main dangers in our opinion. The two handicaps are as usual fiendishly difficult. Our 3 against the field in the Britannia Handicap at 17.25 are Maputo (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), Wentworth (Richard Hughes) and Kyllachy Rise (Jimmy Quinn), the latter two both trained by Richard Hannon; and in the King Geirge V Stakes at 18.35, Johnston and Fanning again with Royal Skies as well as Soviet Rock (Andrew Balding/ Thomas Brown) and the Queen´s Bold Sniper (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Coach House - Coulsty - No Nay Never
2. Race: Alive Alive Oh - Just Pretending - Winsili
3. Race: Estimate - Rite Of Passage - Saddler`S Rock
4. Race: Wentworth - Cape Peron - Maputo
5. Race: Remote - Indian Chief - Shikarpour
6. Race: Bold Sniper - Excellent Result - Pether`s Moon

Gold Cup today with German runners

The Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET at Royal Ascot today is not only the highlight of today´s card but also the most prestigious race of the meeting - even if not the best by class, as it is over an extreme distance contested by very few thoroughbreds. There is a large field of 18 runners, the biggest since the war, and 4 Irish, 3 French and 2 German challengers make it a truly international occasion.

We will start with the German runners- Altano (Eduardo Pedroza) and Earl of Tinsdal (William Buick), both trained by Andreas Wöhler. Eddie is the stable jockey, but there is no doubt that the Earl is the main hope. Altano won at Hoppegarten last time, but that was the Earl´s first race of the season- he has come on a ton since then, according to Wöhler - and he was conceding 4 lbs. There is however a big problem with Earl of Tinsdal - he needs soft ground to show his best form, and he looks unlikely to get it. The rain has stayed away so far, and unless it pours in the next 6 hours, the ground will definitely be against him. Altano, on the other hand, goes well on firmish ground, although he does not have the class of the Earl, who is actually top-rated here.

The going could well have an important role to play here, as others who would like some rain to fall include Rite of Passage (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), El Salvador (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and probably the likely favourite, the Queen´s Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who is a daughter of Monsun and won the Queen´ s Vase at this meeting last year. However like both the Germans and also the French runners, she has never run further than 2 miles. One who is certain to stay is Rite of Passage, who won the race in 2010. That was a brilliant piece of training by Weld - his previous race was over hurdles at Cheltenham!- but he has only run twice since. He is a very lightly-raced 9yo with only 12 races in his record - 6 of them in NH events- and frankly, it will be a miracle if he wins again. Weld is possibly the only trainer who could bring it off, but we just can´t believe it.

Another Irish N.H.performer who is certain to stay is Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Johnny Murtagh), who won twice over extreme distances at this meeting last year. He possibly does not have the class of some of the others, but looks a banker for a place. We also like Saddlers Rock (John Oxx/ Declan McDonough), one of the few who will appreciate the going and who was third last year behind Godolphin´s Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who has run badly ever since. One of the most interesting candidates is Times Up, previously trained by John Dunlop and now with his son Ed, and partnered by the most successful Royal Ascot of recent times, Frankie Dettori. Times Up won last year´s Doncaster Cup, over 2 1/4 miles, by a neck from High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ Graham Lee), with Colour Vision and Saddler´s Rock well behind. That was possibly the best trial for today, so we make Times Up, High Jinx and Simenon our 3 against the field, but some heavy rain in the next few hours would certainly bring Earö of Tinsdal into the equation.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Coach House - Coulsty - No Nay Never
2. Race: Alive Alive Oh - Just Pretending - Winsili
3. Race: Estimate - Rite Of Passage - Saddler`S Rock
4. Race: Wentworth - Cape Peron - Maputo
5. Race: Remote - Indian Chief - Shikarpour
6. Race: Bold Sniper - Excellent Result - Pether`s Moon

Rest of Royal Ascot

The rest of the card looks very difficult for punters with 4 races with 20+ runners and all wide open. We start with the Group Three Jersey Stakes for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs, and have narrowed this down to 3 runners- Godolphin´s Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), third in the German 2,000 Guineas and probably better over this trip, Gale Force Ten (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), runner-up in the Irish version and 4th in the French Guineas and therefore the class act here, and Garswood (Richard Fahey/ Pat Smullen), strongly fancied by his shrewd trainer and ridden by one of our favourite jockeys.

German classic form is also represented by Senafe (Marco Botti/ Neil Callan), who runs in the Sandringham handicap for 3yo filllies over a mile at 18.35 following her good third place at Düsseldorf. Obviously she is better than a handicapper, but so are some of the others in this really tricky event. We nominate Hint of a Tint (David Wachman/ Fran Berry), Bracing Breeze (Dermot Weld/ Smullen), Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Woodland Aria (John Gosden/ William Buick) as the main dangers.

Even more difficult is the Royal Hunt Cup, a mile handicap at 17.25 with 30 runners. The bookies love this race, as dozens of runners (literally) will be well backed and anything is possible. Two factors must be bortne in mid - the effect of the draw, still inconclusive but yresterday´s results Show a slight bias towards the hiugh numbers- and the going. At the moment it is good, verging on good to firm, and it is warm and sunny; however heavy showers are forecast later in the day. Should heavy rain fall, then the lightweights Spa´s Dancer (James Eustace/ Ryan Moore) and Captain Bertie (Charlie Hills/ James McDonald) could come into the reckoning; otherwise we take last year´s winner Prince of Johanne (Tom Tate/ John Fahy) and the well-handicapped Fury (William Haggas/ Joseph O´Brien) and Directorship (Paul Chamings/ Dame O´Neill) as our 3 against the field.

The Queen Mary for 2yo fillies over 5 furlongs at 18.00 has 24 runners, only 2 of which have not so far won. One of them ironically is our fancy Oriel, Richard Hughes´ choice from 4 runners trained by father-in-law Richard Hannon. Beldale Memory (Clive Cox/ Jamie Spencer) is obviously a big danger after winning both her starts in excellent style.

The Irish had a very successful opening day to the meeting and could have more winners today; we especially like Duntle (Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) in the Group Two race for fillies at 16.05, where Chigun (Lady Jane Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Dank (Stoute/ Moore) could be her most dangerous opponents.

Prince of Wales´s Stakes at Royal Ascot

The Prince of Wales´ s Stakes over 10 furlongs for older horses at 16.45 CET is the only Group One today and the highlight of another excellent card. We well remember the German horse Manduro winning this and being subsequently rated the best horse in the world in 2007. Today´s field is strong, but we cannot imagine any of the runners will be later rated as champion of the world.

French raider Maxios (Jonathan Pease/ Stephane Pasquier) has at least some similarity with Manduro, being by the same sire Monsun and having the same jockey as well as having run in some of the same races. But he is not yet in the same class, although he could certainly be placed here. However the main interest in the race is the renewed clash between Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) and Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien). The latter was odds-on when beaten by the former in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time and will be thirsting for revenge. Connections sound confident and also have a pacemaker in the field, Windsor Palace (Seamus Heffernan) to help; the stable is in great form and won two races here yesterday, but we still think that Al Kazeem, still lightly-raced after missing much of last year through injury, will win again. He has won both his starts this season in the style of a really progressive performer, If there is a star in the field, it can only be Al Kaze em, as we all know that last season´s 3yo´s - of which Camelot was the best- were generally a poor lot.

Of the other runners, the tough globetrotter Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Frankie Dettori) must be mentioned- although we cannot see him winning over this trip against the distance specialists -and also the lone filly in the line-up, The Fugue (John Gosden/ William Buick); but she has not been out since a rather unlucky third at the Breeders Cup more than 7 months ago and we do not fancy her chances today.

Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot

there are 6 meetings in Britain and Ireland today, but we are only going to look at one of them- Royal Ascot. This fixture, undoubtedly the highlight of the flat season in England, starts off today and continues through Saturday with some brilliant races, starting with the very first race of the meeting- the Group One Queen Anne Stakes over a mile for older horses at 15.30 CET. Frankel won this last year, putting up one of his best performances at 10-1 on, but there is no Frankel in today´s field, which looks sub-standard -with one exception. That exception is the American challenger Animal Kingdom (Graham Motion/ John Velazquez), winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2011 and of the Dubai World Cup this year. He missed most of the intervening period with injury, but did make an eye-catching appearance in the Breeders Cup Mile last autumn, when runner-up to the outstanding Wise Dan.
That was the Performance that stringly suggests he will be hard to beat today.Ülenty of People arev preoared to take him on, on the grounds that he has never run on a straight track before, will be totally unsuited by the Ascot straight mile, and indeed has never even won over this distance. The last argument can certainly be ignored, as the BC Mile was one of the best mile races run in the whole world last year, with several smart European milers well beaten, but the first two objections could be valid; however we won´t know till after the race, but he has apparently worked well at Ascot and we will certainly give him the benefit of the doubt.
He is clearly by far the best horse in the field, in fact on official ratings he is currently the third best horse in the world. The only question therefore is how he will act on the track today. In our view, he is no value at 11-8 on, the price quoted yesterday, but he has been pushed out to evens this morning, and that is certainly worth consideration. If you think that the chances against him acting are less than 50%, then you should take the even money.
There is also no strong opposition here. Quite a few of the others ran in the Lockinge Stakes a month ago - also over a straight mile- in which Sovereign Debt (Michael Bell/ Adam Kirby) finished second, beaten 4 lengths by Farhh, with Aljamaaheer (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) a neck away in third., Chil the Kite (Hughie Morrison/ Ryan Moore) 4th, Declaration of War (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) a disappointing favourite in 5th, and Penitent (David O´Meara/ Dannmy Tudhope) and Libranno (Richard Hannon/ Pat Cosgrave) well back. Of this group we expect the very consistent Aljamaaheer to come out best; he never seems to run a bad race, and was also a good third in the Jersey Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year.
The only other runner with a glimmer of a chance in our view is Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick), the only filly in the field. She has not run since finishing 3rd in the QE II Stakes over this CD last October, but that should be no worry, as her trainer and jockey have an excellent record at these top meetings. However her best form has been in French fillies races - winning the Matrcel Biussac at 2 and the Rothschild at 3- and we are not sure if she is up to winning a Group One against the colts.
Our recommendation is therefore clear: back Animal Kingdom at evens or better, otherwise Aljamaaheer each way.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Declaration Of War - Elusive Kate - Aljamaaheer
2. Race: Shea Shea - Reckless Abandon - Sole Power
3. Race: Dawn Approach - Magician - Toronado
4. Race: Stubbs - Sir John Hawkins - Championship
5. Race: Tiger Cliff - Justification - Well Sharp
6. Race: Anticipated - Ogermeister - Wilshire Boulevard

the lull before the storm

Royal Ascot starts tomorrow,so obviously very llttle will happen today, with 4 low level meetings - Carlisle and Kempton (a.w.) this afternoon, and Warwick and Windsor this evening.
28 races today, and only one of them is better than a class 4 handicap, and that is the listed Warwickshire Oaks for four-year-old and older fillies and mares at 19.50 CET at Warwick. Shirocco Star (Hughie Morrison/ Kieren Fallon) is the obvious favourite here, having finished runner-up 5 times in top races last year, including the Oaks itself and the Irish equivalent. As the name suggests, she is a daughter of the German Derby winner Shirocco, and that makes us a little wary - as 11 furlongs on this fast ground may not be ideal for her; the same goes for second favourite Gallipot (John Gosden/ William Buick), so we prefer the two Godolphin runners- Dark Orchid (Silvestre de Sousa) and La Arenosa (Harry Bentley), both of which switched to Saeed bin Suroor from Andre Fabre The stable is in top form, and although jockey bookings suggest otherwise, we will take a chance on La Arenosa, who is out of an Acatenango mare and therefore likely to appreciate the going.
Also at Warwick, we like Taquka (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) in the 2yo maiden at 20.20, and the same trainer also has a couple of good chances this afternoon at Kempton: Pearl Bridge (Jamie Spencer) in the 3yo handicap at 16.00 and Poyle Thomas (Seb Sanders) in the maiden at 17.00, although Nellie Forbush (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) looks a big danger in the latter event.
Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes rarely leave the Windsor evening meetings without a winner or two, and they can land a double on Speed the Plough in the 2yo maiden at 129.35 and Authoritarian in the mile handicap at 21.05. The 6 furlongs handicap here at 20.35 is the toughest race of the day and there is apparently a gamble on Blue Jack (Stuart Williams/ Graham Lee); he certainly has a lot in his favour, but we would not like to take a short price about anything in this tricky event and at the likely odds prefer Novellen Lad (Willie Musson/ Ted Durcan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rowlestone Lad - Jewelled Dagger - Picalily
2. Race: Dancheur - Wicked Wench - Fanrouge
3. Race: Taquka - Yellow Lady - Dancing Juice
4. Race: Shirocco Star - Dark Orchid - Gallipot
5. Race: Spanish Plume - Mr Lando - The Great Gabrial
6. Race: Boots And Spurs - Accession - Postscript

Black type races at Cork

The two U.K.meetings today are nothing special, but the Irish card at Cork has a couple of decent races, with the Group Three Noblesse Stakes over 1 1/2 miles for fillies and mares at 17.20 CET the main event. Dermot Weld has won this 3 times in the last 4 years and score again with Princess Highway (Pat Smullen), who carries a penalty for winning the Ribblesdale last year at Royal Ascot but is still clear top-rated.

Aidan O´Brien saddles 3 fillies here, but none of them looks good enough, and the two British runners Cubanita (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) and Testosterone (Ed Dunlop/ Kevin Manning) look the main dangers. Another who is clear top-rated here is Maarek (David Nagle/ Seamus Heffernan) in the listed sprint at 16.45; the going may not be as soft as he prefers, but he should still outclass this opposition, although Royal Ascot next week will be a different matter.

In England, Lady Jane Cecil had already shown that she has what it takes to continue her late husband´s work, and she can land an across-the-card double with Spiritoftomintoul (Pat Cosgrave) in the 1 1/2 mile maiden at 16.00 at Doncaster, and Magic of Reality (Tom Queally) in the fillies maiden at 16.25 at Salisbury. She and Queally also team up with Continuum in the opening handicap here, but this looks wide open and we just prefer top-weight John Biscuit (Andrew Baldi8ng/ Jimmy Fortune). Balding won the first two races at Sandown yesterday - both recommended here - and can repeat this feat today, with the speedy Top Cop (Jimmy Fortune), who is dropping in grade, fancied to win the 5 furlongs sprint at 15.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sudirman - Dove Mountain - Fine Cut
2. Race: Peggy`s Leg - Boom And Bloom - Peggy`s Leg
3. Race: Bye Bye Birdie - Abbakova - Clenor
4. Race: Maarek - Cape Of Approval - Red Dubawi
5. Race: Princess Highway - Magical Dream - Cubanita
6. Race: College Boy - Indian Landing - Hard Core Debt
7. Race: Morning With Ivan - Brog Deas - Dubaya
8. Race: Lake District - Live Dangerously - Overland Express

Listed race at Sandown

The listed race at Sandown is over 5 furlongs for 3yo´s at 15.55 CET and we expect Morawij (Roger Varian/ Ryan Moore) to be returned the winner. He was not beaten far when 6th in the Temple Stakes last time, which is easily the best form of offer here. This distance could be ideal for Sound of Guns (Ed Walker/ Luke Morris) and she looks next best. The handicaps here are also very tricky.

Ningara could have a squeak in the opener at 14.50, though trainer Andrew Balding must now look for a new jockey as David Probert is injured and will be out of action for several weeks. Balding also a chance in the mile handicap half an hour later with Roserrow (Jimmy Fortune), although this is a very open affair. There are quite a few CD specialists in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.30, including Tagula Night (Dean Ivory/ Kieren Fallon) and Rocket Rob (Willie Musson/ Jamie Mackay), who finished 1-2 in a similar event here recently. If you can bet place only, look at top-weight Lupo d´Oro (John Best/ James Doyle) in this race: he has only won once from 22 starts, but has been placed 13 times! Khaled Abdullah has 2 runners in the 3yo handicap at 17.05, Pythagorean (Roger Charlton/ Doyle) and Defendant (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) both are improving types who won last time out, but Defendant carries the first colours and we think that he is the more likely winner.

The only jumps racing today is at Hexham, and our eye is caught by German-bred Solis (Dianne Sayer/ Ryan Mania) in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.55. He was quite a smart handicapper in Germany in younger days, and was ridden by the trainer´s daughter when runner-up over this CD last time; now he is ridden by the jockey who partnered him to success on his previous race and we can hope that he can repeat that victory today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Theodore Gericault - Stableford - Noble Gift
2. Race: Danchai - George Guru - Ashaadd
3. Race: Smoothtalkinrascal - Morawij - Sound Of Guns
4. Race: Lupo D`Oro - Monsieur Jamie - Rylee Mooch
5. Race: Pythagorean - Defendant - Beautiful View
6. Race: Al Guwair - Sadiq - Herod The Great
7. Race: Abundantly - Presto Volante - The Quarterjack

Listed race at York

surprisingly for a Saturday, there are no group races at all in the U.K.today - actually it is not such a surprise considering that there are 18 of them next week at Royal Ascot- and the two best races are listed events at York and Sandown, the two courses which also feature the best racing today. Otherwise the day is dominated by handicaps, some quite valuable and all very competitive with some big fields.

At York, the main feature is over a mile at 16.15 CET and looks wide open. Stipulate (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) would obviously be a popular winner and is likely to start favourite. He has some good form at this level, but faces tough opposition from Questioning (John Gosden/ William Buick) - a Group winner last year- and Baltic Knight (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes); the latter is one of two 3yo´s in the field and the other, Sir Patrick Moore (Harry Dunlop/ Richard Kingscote) would also come into the reckoning if any more rain falls.

The big betting race here is the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.50, with 20 runners and the bookies going 8-1 the field at present. This looks very difficult, with top-weight Hasopop (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) clearly having the best form, but he may struggle to give the weight away to some useful young sprinters. Our 3 against the field are Odooj (William Haggas( Paul Hanagan), Lewisham (Ralph Beckett/ Neil Callan) and Rivellino (Elaine Burke/ Robert Winston), but almost anything is possible here. The following 9 furlongs handoicap also has 20 runners and Mick Easterby, always a danger here, saddles two of them- Kalk Bay (Graham Gibbons) and 2011 winner Barren Brook (Ted Durcan); either could win, although early betting suggests the former is more fancied. Mick´s nephew Tim Easterby saddles Crackentorp in the opening Queen Mothers Cup over 1 1/2 miles; this is one of the best races of the years for lady jockeys and Jacqui Coward has won it for the past 2 years on the 8yo , who could well complete a hat-trick. Cosmic Sun (Richard Fahey/ Alison Deniel) is just one of many dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: War Singer - Crackentorp - Cosmic Sun
2. Race: Westwiththenight - Sam Sharp - Suits Me
3. Race: Baltic Knight - Stipulate - Sir Patrick Moore
4. Race: Heaven`s Guest - Cosmic Chatter - Moviesta
5. Race: Kalk Bay - Christmas Light - Act Your Shoe Size
6. Race: Edge - Rufford - In Focus
7. Race: Polar Venture - Mon Brav - Al Khan

8 meetings today

A busy Friday with 3 meetings in the afternoon and 5 in the evening - two of them in Ireland with huge fields. The vast majority of today´s races are handicaps, usually at a low level, and it looks tricky for punters. The main meetings are at York and Sandown this afternoon, but both of them have much better cards tomorrow. At Sandown, the pedigree of Aegaeus (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore), who runs in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.20 CET, is of interest as he is by Monsun out of multiple Group One winner Ouija Board. However he seems very difficult to win with, and we would prefer to put our money on Clowance Estate (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle), who won his only start - more than a year ago- in good style, and is quite possibly much better than this grade. The stable is in good form, so the long break is no reason to worry. We also like bottom-weight London Bridge (Jo Hughes/ Martin Lane) in the following race; he showed much improved form to win at Brighton last week and can def y a 6 lbs penalty in this better company.

At York the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 16.05 Looks very open. We like the oldtimers, but 11yoBlue Bajan (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) seemed to have the plot last season and is now coming off a long break; at his best - he was twice runner-up in the Yorkshire Cup over this CD- he would of course be unbeatable, but for now we prefer David Simcock´s two runners, top-weight Montaser (Jamie Spencer) and Martin Chuzzlewit (Martin Harley).
A couple of runners at Musselburgh who look due for a win are Red Baron (Eric Alston/ Neil Farley) over 5 furlongs at 16.25 and Merchant of Dubai (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) over 1 3/4 miles at 17.00.

5 runners for Lady Jane Cecil

Sir Henry died on Tuesday, and his widow Lady Jane Cecil has been granted a provisional license to keep the Newmarket stable running. If it sounds heartless that she is saddling her first runners only 2 days after his death , this is far from the case: Henry would certainly have approved and in fact he made the entries for these runners while practically on his deathbed. Jane certainly knows plenty about training thoroughbreds.

Not only was she Henry´s secretary for several years. her father was a trainer and so are her brothers Rae and Richard Guest. What is interesting is that she has 5 runners at 4 different racecourses, quite a logistical problem at the best of times. The most interesting runner is Tickled Pink, sent to Ireland with stable jockey Tom Queally ro contest the Group Three Ballyogan Stakes for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 20.30 CET at Leopardstown. Tickled Pink is penalised for winning a Group Three at Newmarket and then ran respectably - although well beaten- in a much stronger field for the Duke of York Stakes; that is by far the best form on offer in this race and she should win, with Scream Blue Murder (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan) looking the best of the Irish hopes. The other group race on the card, over 7 furlongs at 19.55, should go to Reply (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien).

We expect Tickled Pink to win, but we don´t expect her to be Lady Jane´s first winner, as she has several good prospects running this afternoon in England. Pride of place goes to Morpheus (James Doyle), who runs in the mile maiden at 17.45 at Nottingham, He is a half-brother to Frankel, and while he is clearly far inferior to that champion, he should be good enough to beat today´s opposition. At Yarmouth, Songbird (Ian Mongan) has only 3 opponents to beat in the fillies handicap at 17.55; she made an excellent debut at Salisbury last month and is probably much better than a handicapper.

Lady Jane´s two runners at Newbury, Phaenomena and Rajaratna, in the two divisions of the 3yo filllies maiden at 14.50 and 15.50, are both ridden by Pat Cosgrave and owned by the Niarchos family. Both are extremely well-bred and it would be no surprise to see them winning as well. In fact it would be quite a surprise if the 5 Cecil runners returned home without at least one win, and the whole of the racing world will be wishing them well.

The emotional background means that they may start at very short prices, and from the betting point of view we recommend another Newmarket lady trainer: Ilka Gansera-Levesque, who saddles Crystal High (Mikael Barzalona) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.45 at Nottingham. Ilka has already shown that she knows what she is doing, and this 5yo, who was trained in France last year, is absolutely thrown in on his old form.

6 flat meetings today

No jumping at all today, but 6 flat meetings - 3 in the afternoon and 3 in the evening, but all of course at a low level. Dane O´Neill rode 5 winners at Beverley last Saturday and returns there today with more good chances; his best prospect in our view is John Hills´ Mujarrad in the 7 furlongs maiden at 16.00 CET. This well-bred colt has not really lived up to expectations, but faces feeble opposition today.

The best race at Yarmouth is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.40, which looks really tricky, especially as most of the runners are all-weather specialists. Equitania (Alan Bailey/ Robert Tart) is the only 3yo in the field and may well be good enough, but we shall concentrate on the two runners who have actually won over this CD- Piazza San Pietro (Zoe Davison/ Neil Callan) and Arctic Lynx (Robert Cowell/ Liam Jones) and shall risk a small each-way bet on the former, who could well start at a rewarding price.

At Haydock, Dubai Hills (Bryan Smart/ Josh Newman), a good runner-up over this CD 3 weeks ago, could go one better in the mile handicap at 16.50, though Dubai Dynamo (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald), not far behind him in fourth, should also be thereabouts. The 1 1/2 mile handicap half an hour later looks very open, but it is interesting to see Frankie Dettori riding again for Luca Cumani, who fetched him to England about 30 years ago. The Italian combination could click here with Moldowney, but the top-weights Scatter Dice (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and the much-improved Swinging Sultan (Keith Reveley/ Tom Eaves) both look very dangerous.

The evening meetings at Hamilton and Kempton are in our opinion best left alone, but there are a couple of interesting races in Ireland. The 7 furlongs event at 19.30 at Fairyhouse has some useful performers in the line-up, including South African Group Two winner Antious (David Marnane/ Fergal Lynch) and Mooqtar (Kevin Prendergast/ Chris Hayes), easy winner of his only race - at Leopardstown in very promising style last September - the form of which has worked out very well. The 1 1/2 mile maiden at 22.00 sees some very well-bred and lightly-raced types in opposition, notably Aidan O´Brien´s pair Heirloom (Joseph) and the debutant Venus de Milo (Seamus Heffernan), who cost 220,000 guineas as a yearling. Joseph cannot do the weight on the filly, so the fact that he rides his father´s other runner does not necessarily mean much. Both these races should be watched for future reference, although they are not good betting races for today in view of the many unknown factors.

Yarmouth - betting forecast:
1. Race: Peter Mac - Witchy Woman - Hatti
2. Race: My Guardian Angel - Syncopate - Standing Strong
3. Race: Sutton Sid - Claude Greenwood - Spanish Art
4. Race: Tarooq - Titus Gent - Out Do
5. Race: Bosham - Oh So Sassy - Done Dreaming
6. Race: Vastly - Cheers Big Ears - Essell
7. Race: Dancheur - Artful Lady - My Own Way Home

5 more poor meetings today

with Royal Ascot starting in exactly one week from now, there is little point in expecting high class racing at the moment and today´s 5 cards - flat racing at Satisbury this afternoon and Lingfield (a.w.) this evening, jumps racing at Fontwell in the afternoon and Worcester in the evening, as well, as a mixed Irish meeting at Roscommon (3 flat races, 3 over hurdles and 2 bumpers) are all very weak.
At Salisbury, we expect Kyllachy Rise (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) to get off the mark in the 7 furlongs maiden at 16.00 CET. Originally trained by Sir Henry Cecil, he finished last in the 2,000 Guineas and was then beaten at odds-on at York over 6 furlongs; today´s distance could therefore be ideal and the opposition does not look great, with the possible exception of well-bred debutant Muthmir (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan). The handicap for 3yo fillies over the same trip at 17.35 is the most interesting race here; Hanagan rides Einadwa, but we expect stable companion Ghanaian (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) to come out on top.
Another beaten odds-on favourite who should recover some of those losses is Ian´s Dream (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) in the 6 furlongs maiden at 20.30 at Lingfield. He was third at Royal Ascot last June, and despite his two flops since, should be good enough to score here.
Over jumps, there are several recent winners who could follow up over a penalty at Fontwell, such as Wester Ross (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) at 15.15, and Luci di Mezzanotte (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) half an hour later. Tony McCoy, in fantastic form at present (when he is ever not??) is riding here and can land a double with Richard Ford´s Silver Steel at 16.15 and Jonjo O´Neill´s Listen and Learn at 16.50.
McCoy then hares off to Worcester, where he has 6 rides. In the main event, a handicap hurdle over 2 miles 7 furlongs at 21.40, he partners Storm Survivor -who has been running over fences -with a good chance for O´Neill, but we think the interesting one here is Home Run (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore). Bred by Gestüt Ammerland, the close relation to Hurricane Run hit the headlnes when winning 5 races in quick succession last winter; he then ran without success in much better company and now tries a longer distance for the first time. If he gets this trip - and pedigree suggests that it will be no problem- then he can get back on the winning trail.
It is raining in Ireland and the ground at Roscommon will be softer than forecast. This should suit Courage (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell), who has been runner-up on his last 3 starts, all on soft ground, and he should win the maiden hurdle at 19.50.

Betting forecast at Salisbury:
1. Race: Emperor`s Hope - Killing Time - Double Point
2. Race: Bonjour Steve - Trinity Boy - Starlight Serenade
3. Race: Kyllachy Rise - Muthmir - Meddling
4. Race: Raushan - Lyric Ballad - Iffraaj Pink
5. Race: My Gigi - Pippy - Princess Cammie
6. Race: Ghanaian - Elnadwa - This Is Nice
7. Race: Gold Mine - Nave - Into The Wind
8. Race: Intomist - Maria Montez - Commandingpresence

5 poor meetings today

Very little to get excited about at today´s 5 metings, and with the ground firming up there are some very small fields - 4 times 4 runners at Brighton for example, while only one race offers normal each-way betting at Windsor´s evening meeting. Andrea Atzeni won the big race in Germany yesterday and he can continue today at Brighton; Mick Quinn´s Whisky Junction is no star, but loves firm ground and seems well handicapped in the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.15 CET. In the 7 furlongs handicap here half an hour earlier, the two 3yo´s in the field Macaabra (James Tate/ Neil Callan) and Excuse to Linger (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) should dominate their older rivals. We prefer the former, who has already won 3 times this season and can win more races before the handicapper finally nails her. The best betting race at Newton Abbot is the handicap hurdle over 3 miles 3 furlongs at 17.30 with 15 runners. Little Eaglet (Chris and Luke Heard) won this in 2011 on firm ground, but flopped last year when it was very soft. With the ground back in his favour he should go well again off this mark.

They go over jumps this evening at Southwell, whereAzure Fly (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) can get the better of Now Then Charlie (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) in the maiden hurdle at 20.10. Windsor´s Monday evening meetings are always popular in nice weather and racegoers this evening may get to see Frankie Dettori riding a winner or two- we think he has his best chances on David Flood´s Moment in the Sun at 20.00 and Clive Cox´ Greylami half an hour later. In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting at Roscommon, with 4 flat races followed by 3 chases. The Connacht Grand National over 3 miles at 21.20 is the main event and has attracted the biggest field of the day. Johannisberger (Noel Meade/ Paul Townend) is a very tentative suggestion in a wide open affair.

Windsor - betting forecast:
1. Race: Constantine - Aspirant - Rock Of Dreams
2. Race: Honey Of A Kitten - Moment In The Sun - Abbraccio
3. Race: Come On Blue Chip - Cactus Valley - Prince Of Burma
4. Race: Alice`S Dancer - Four Leaves - Miss Cap Estel
5. Race: Charter - Grand Denial - Royal Challis
6. Race: Exotic Isle - Dusty Storm - Star Up In The Sky

Ireland, Scotland and England

a poor Sunday with relatively weak cards at the Curragh and Nottingham (flat) and over jumps at Perth in Scotland. By normal Irish standards, the Curragh meeting is very low-key, with the listed race over 10 furlongs at 16.50 CET the main feature. This sees an interesting clash between 3yo´s and older horses., with the younger hgeneration represented by 4 of the 10 runners. Two of them have classic form- Lines of Battle (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), winner of the UAE Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), third in the Irish 2000 Guineas. We just prefer the former and see another 3yo, the Aga Khan´s very lightly-raced Zand (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) as the only danger to the top two.
The best race at Nottingham is the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.45. Bottom-weight Taurus Twins /RJ Price/ Luke Morris) won this last year; his form since then has been very in and out, but he has obvious prospects of landing the double. However the handicapper has given a chance to 11yo Tax Free (David and Adrian Nicholls). This one time Group race winner has been dropped to his lowest rating for 8 years (!); if he is in the right mood, he can certainly get back on the winning trail today.
Perh offers quite a decent N.H. card for the time of year, and trainers from far and wide have made the long journey to Scotland from Ireland, Wales and the extreme south-west of England: Paul Nicholls saddles his very promising young chaser Merrion Square (Ryan Mahon) in the main event, a 3 mile handicap chase at 17.30 and he is the likely favourite. But watch out for Mumbles Head (Perter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien); his recent form reads terrinbly, but he is unbeaten in 4 starts here and won this last year off the same rating. At the age of 12, he can still show the youngsters a thing or two.

Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: Speed The Plough - Excel`s Beauty - Celtic Ice
2. Race: Street Entertainer - Tijori - Naburn
3. Race: Chloe`s Dream - Tregereth - Beacon Tarn
4. Race: Last Sovereign - Demora - Blanc De Chine
5. Race: Dawn Of Empire - Close At Hand - Tafaaseel
6. Race: Star Of Mayfair - Not Rigg - Woody Bay
7. Race: Honoured - Seldom - Cane Cat

German runners at Haydock

lots of racing today and the main action takes place at Haydock with two Group and two listed races. There is a strong German challenge here in 3 of these races, and to be honest, we think all 3 runners have a good chance.
Nymphea (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) sets the ball rolling in the Pinnacle Stakes, a Group Three for older fillles and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 15.40. She was runner-up in last year´s Preis der Diana and started this season with a listed victory at Baden-Baden; she stays well and should act on the ground (good to firm) and frankly we cannot see how she can not be placed in this company. Prussian (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona) is just about top-rated here after her fine second place to Sajjhaa in Dubai, but she seems best at shorter distances. More dangerous in our opinion are Ambivalent (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), whose trainer has won this for the past two seasons and who was runner-up in a Group Two at York last time, and Quiz Mistress (Hughie Morrison/ Pat Dobbs), who did not stay 1 3/4 miles at York but whose previous head defeat by Universal at Newbury reads well.
Schiergen and Starke follow up with Amarillo, also owned by Jürgen Imm´s Stall Nizza, in the Group Three John of Gaunt Stakes over seven furlongs at 16.15. Amarillo is very consistent, was runner-up in the German 2,000 Guineas last season; we do not think that the distance is a problem, but the fast ground could be. Once again Roger Varian with Eton Forever (Neil Callan) and Hughie Morrison with last year´s winner Pastoral Player (Graham Lee) provide the main dangers, although old Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) would win this if anywhere near his old form,
Possibly Gracia Directa (Dominik Moser/ Oliver Wilson) in the Cecil Frail Stakes, a listed race for fillies over 6 furlongs at 16.50, has the best chance of the German runners. She won a Group Three in York last year and made a pleasing seasonal debut at Munich; the ground was soft that day but she is much better on the firm. The dangers are probably the two 3yo´s in the field, City Girl (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) and Hoyam (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), but the latter, forecast to start favourite, seems better suited by 5 furlongs.
The other listed race is for 3yo´s over 6 furlongs at 17.25 and here we expect Pearl Acclaim (Robert Cowell/ Jamie Spencer) to come out on top; she won a decent handicap under a big weight at Ascot last time and looks well up to listed class.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sun Central - Beyond Conceit - Oriental Fox
2. Race: Prussian - Ambivalent - Nymphea
3. Race: Amarillo - Eton Forever - Pastoral Player
4. Race: Hoyam - Ladies Are Forever - City Girl
5. Race: Professor - Mar Mar - Pearl Acclaim
6. Race: Foxtrot Jubilee - Shore Step - Brazen
7. Race: Elhaame - Double Discount - Enzaal

Listed races this evening

A busy, busy day with no fewer than 8 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland. The best racing is in the evening, with listed races at Haydock and in Ireland at Leopardstown. There are in fact two such events at the latter track, the Saval Beg Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 20.20 CET and the King George V Cup for 3yo´s over eleven furlongs half an hour later.The Saval Beg is often used by Irish trainers as a prep for the Gold Cup at Ascot, but the two main Irish hopes for that race, Rite of Passage and Saddler´s Rock, both miss the race because of the firm ground. However Rite of Passage´s trainer and jockey, Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen, could still win with Pale Mimosa, who has not run since the Arc meeting, but still looks the one to beat. The obvious, and probably only, danger is the lightly-raced El Salvador (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), but we are not sure that he will act on this ground. The King George V Cup is a late Trial for the Irisjh Derby, though we cannot see many of this ev ening´s runners playing any sort of role in the classic. The O´Brien´s can take with Count of Limonade, who holds the Aga Khan´s Dibayani (Mike Halford/ Declan McDonough) on a line through another O´Brien 3yo Leading Light; Weld and Smullen have a possible danger here in very lightly-raced Resolute Response, who is taking a huge leap in class.

At Haydock, the 5 furlongs Achilles Stakes at 21.15 is the main feature. Excelette (Bryan Smart/ Royston Ffrench) won this last year, beating subsequent Group race winner Spirit Quartz, and a return to that form would give her a great chance of a double. However on her latest form she looks held by My Propeller (Petert Chapple-Hyam/ Ryan Moore), and she is our selection, although Irish raider Nocturnal Affair (David Marnane/ William Buick) also looks dangerous. For fans of German breeding we recommend Moon over Miami (owner, trainer and jockey: D.Holmes) at 18.55, and Lightning Strike (Paul Webber/ Liam Treadwell) an hour later, both at Stratford´s N.H.meeting this evening, where the top race is the hunter chase at 21.30. This has attracted many of the top British and Irish hunter-chasers, including Salsify (Rodger and Colman Sweeney), who won this last year and this year has been successful in the top events at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Special Mix - Gran Maestro - Breakheart
2. Race: Mawfoor - Safety Check - Fair Ranger
3. Race: Rock N Rouge - Ben Hall - Capitulate
4. Race: Medicean Man - My Propeller - Excelette
5. Race: Visit Copenhagen - Brave Acclaim - Red Red Wine
6. Race: Ennistown - Ray Ward - Mystery Bet

6 more meetings today

Plenty of racing again, and some large fields, but mainly of very moderate performers. The main interest will be to see if Frankie Dettori can finally get off the mark today; he has so far failed to win a race since his comeback from a lengthy suspension last week, but he looks to have some decent chances at Sandown this evening. We think his best prospect is William Haggas´ Asian Trader in the 5 furlongs handicap at 19.50 CET.

The 4yo had health issues last year, but showed much improved form on his seasonal debut when an easy winner at Bath six weeks ago. He has gone up 8 lbs for that success but could still be well handicapped. Frankie then rides Tigers Tale for Ron Teal at 20.25, who has a chance in a very open race, while the debutant Achtung is his mount in the 3yo maiden at 21.30; he is well-bred, but so are some of the others in this field, and trainer Jeremy Noseda probably has a better chance of a win this evening with the very promising Homage (William Buick) in the 3yo handicap at 20.55.

There is flat racing this afternoon at Brighton and Thirsk, mainly low-level handicaps of llttle interest, and N.H. racing at Ffos Las this afternoon - where Royale Knight (Dr. Richard Newland/ Sam Twiston-Davies) can make it 6 wins from his last 8 starts in the handicap chase at 17.35 - and this evening at Worcester, where Ekectric Tiger (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), from an excellent Wittekindshof family, should be placed at least in the maiden hurdle at 21.05.

In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting at Tipperary, with 4 flat races followed by two over hurdles and a bumper. Aidan O´Brien, who can do no wrong at the moment, saddles Fountain of Youth , with his son Joseph in the saddle, in the 2yo maiden at 18.35, and he should win easily but he will not be at a working man´s price.

Sandown - betting forecast:
1. Race: Inciting Incident - Rising Dawn - Urban Dreamer
2. Race: Rebecca Romero - Asian Trader - Whitecrest
3. Race: Poetic Lord - Tigers Tale - Sir Mike
4. Race: Altharoos - Ashaadd - Homage
5. Race: Lemon Pearl - Thomas Hobson - Dambuster
6. Race: Highland Duke - Cashpoint - Frozen Over

6 meetings today

Plenty of racing again today, but mainly at a low level, and if there are any stars to be seen, this is likely to be at the evening Irish meeting at Fairyhouse. Most of the top Irish trainers are here - Oxx, Weld, Wachman and co - but the two most interesting runners are Aidan O´Brien´s Bluebell (Seamus Heffernan) and Wonderfully (Joseph O´Brien) in the opening 2yo fillies maiden at 18.25 CET. Needless to say, both are beautifully bred, especially the latter, an own sister to last week´s Derby runner Mars, and as she is Joseph´s choice, we expect her to win on her debut and quite possibly go on to success in a much higher grade.

Sir Mark Prescott sends two runners North from his Newmarket base to run at Ayr and both of them are likely to start hot favourites - Khotan in the 1 3/4 miles maiden at 15.10 and Mutual Regard, who has top weight in the handicap over the same trip at 16.10. We are slightly sceptical about both: Mutual Regard, who is out of a Big Shuffle mare, won all 4 starts last season, but all on the all-weather, and is now up in grade, in distance and also in the weights. Inm thre maiden we are interested in Camelopardalis (Toby Coles/Robert Winston), a 4yo filly having only her second run, after finishing third in a Catterick seller on her only start last August. That is no recommendation, but she has been well entered - including in German Group races- which suggests that the trainer thinks highly of her. Luke Morris rides the Prescott runners and has more good chances on the card, including the lightly-raced Fort Belvedere (Keith Dalgleish) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 127.40; this however is a very open race and we shall go for Gala Casino Star (Geoff Harker( Jordan Nason) each-way.

There is some quite decent jumping at Newton Abbot, where some useful prospects line up in the novice chase at 16.50; we liked the way Suerte Al Salto (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) won last week at Fontwell and he can possibly follow up with a 6 lbs penalty, while Cannon also rides German-bred Sadlers Star (Michael Blake) in the handicap chase an hour later, our longshot each-way selection in a very open race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bluebell - Wonderfully - Pirita
2. Race: Talitha Kum - Hazy Glow - Yulong Baoju
3. Race: Silver Lightening - Late Rosebud - Waahy
4. Race: Lily Of Kenmare - Enigma Code - Indiana Charmer
5. Race: Paynes Find - Penny Serenade - Silldora
6. Race: Sleeping Beauty - Venus De Milo - Pearl Turn
7. Race: The Black Devil - To Choose - Fellisha
8. Race: House Limit - Armed Guard - Table Forty Six

4 poor meetings today

A typical Tuesday today with very little of interest and low grade racing at all 4 meetings - Ripon and Lingfield (all-weather) this afternoon, and Yarmouth and Hexham (N.H.) this evening. The best race of the day is the mile handicap at 16.30 CET at Ripon, which looks wide open, with several CD specialists in opposition, many of whom have already met several times. Ardmay (Kevon and Amy Ryan) won over this CD a fortnight ago, with Frontier Fighter (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) runner-up, Dubai Dynamo (Ruth Carr/ P McDonald), who won this in 2011, fourth, and Osteopathic Remedy (Michael Dods/ T Eaves) fifth; they are now handicapped to dead-heat so anything is possible. Ardmay is the youngest horse in the field and may possibly confirm the form - although the Ryans are apparently worried about the firming ground-but we shall take a chance on Osteopathic Remedy, who runs his best races here.

The most interesting events at Lingfield are the two divisions of the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 17.45 and 1815, with runners from some of the top stables - Stoute, Gosden, Cecil etc. All eyes will be on Air Of Glory (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona) in the first division; not only was he a very expensove yearling, costing half a Million Guineas, but he is also the first runner from Moulton Paddocks since the steroid scandal concerning the previous trainer Mahmood al Zarooni. Saeed now holds the license, but it has been reported today that al Zarooni´s assistant Charlie Appleby is expected to take over once he is approved. Godolphin obviously want to put all this behind them and will be hoping that Air Of Glory wins, and also either debutant Hunting Ground (Kieren Fallon) or Thouwra (Barzalona) in the second division.

Another one hoping to put recent troubles behind him is Frankie Dettori, who made his comeback last Friday after being suspended for half a year. None of his Mounts so far jhave troubled the judge, but he could be among the winners this evening at Yarmouth, where he has 3 rides - Green Monkey for James Fanshawe at 18.55, Ssafa for Tony Lidderdale at 19.25 and Sound Advice for Keith Dalgleish at 19.55. At Hexham this evening, recent CD winners Balding Banker (Ferdy Murphy/ Tony Kelly) and Rattin (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) are expected to follow up at 19.10 and 19.45 respectively.

Ripon - betting forecast:
1. Race: Searchlight - Captain Midnight - Ambiance
2. Race: Bobs Her Uncle - Imaginary World - Cabal
3. Race: Special Meaning - Order Of Service - Tuscan Fun
4. Race: Ardmay - Frontier Fighter - Dubai Dynamo
5. Race: Gallena - Bondesire - Bapak Bangsawan
6. Race: Sublimation - Rock Choir - Correggio
7. Race: Red Tyke - Amtired - Honoured

4 listed races today

There are 4 listed races today, 3 of them this afternoon in Ireland at Naas and the other at Windsor this evening at 20.00 CET, which looks at the mercy of top-weight Mince (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle); she won 5 races last season, all over tonight´s distance of 6 furlongs, finishing with a Group Three victory for which she must now carry a penalty. However she looks different class to her opponents here and we expect her to keep up the good form of the Charlton/ Doyle Team. At Naas, Johnny Murtagh is both trainer and jockey of Foxtrot Romeo, who runs in the 7 furlongs race at 16.05 CET; he has been running in better company, and his best form last season (when he was trained in England) was his second place in the Irish 2,00 Guineas, where Reply (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), possibly his main rival today, was just behind in third. The three 3yo´s could be dangerous at these weights, especially the lightly-raced Ghaamer (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who looks a likely improver, however we think that Foxtrot Romeo can continue Johnny Murtagh´s good start to his training career.

The other listed races are for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs - the colts at 17.05 and the fillies half an hour later. They were won by subsequent classic winners Dawn Approach and Sky Lantern last ydear, so will be watched with interest. The former race has only 4 runners and looks between Club Wexford (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and Stubbs (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien); we liked the way Stubbs won last time and he is the selection. The fillies race is much more open, with 11 runners, including 3 from Britain, two of them trained by Richard Hannon. both last-time-out winners, Fig Roll (Pat Dobbs) and Corncockle (Wayne Lordan). Richard Fahey´s Sandiva (Smullen) was quite impressive when winning her only start, while O´Brien runs two unraced fillies: Bracelet, Joseph´s chloice, and Adeste Fideles (Seamus Heffernan). The latter has the best pedigree in the field, being a daughter of Giant´s Causeway out of dual classic winner Imagine.

Another interesting pedigree today is that of Juvenile Lead (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who makes his debut at 15.15 at Leicester. He is the first 2yo to run by first season sire Sea the Stars, in our opinion one of the very best horses seen wordwide this century. This is probably no race for betting purposes, but definitely a must-watch event.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lottie Dod - One True Love - Violet Hour
2. Race: Reply - Foxtrot Romeo - Parliament Square
3. Race: Fastidious - Slipper Orchid - Flic Flac
4. Race: Stubbs - Club Wexford - Sacha Park
5. Race: Sandiva - Heart Focus - Fig Roll
6. Race: Rain God - Highest Praise - King Oliver
7. Race: Bobskier - Nabat Ali - Empress Of Tara

Derby Day!

it´s Derby Day at Epsom and the famous race, to be run over 1 1 /2 miles at 17.00 CET, is still arguably the best-known horse race in the world. Twelve 3yo colts line up, but the race revolves around just one of them: Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), unbeaten in 7 runs so far and impressive last time when winning the 2,000 Guineas, which has so often been the best guide to this race - Camelot, Sea the Stars et al- despite the much shorter distance. And that is exactly the problem: will he stay the trip today? Of course we will know for sure a few minutes after 5 o´clock, but the arguments are as follows:

against staying: he was a precocious 2yo, winning in March (!!) and then taking the Coventry at Royal Ascot, a race almost always won by a sprinter/ miler. The dam´s side of his pedigree suggests that he should be best up to a mile. Bolger, who also bred him, did not consider him as a possible Derby horse until Godolphin bought into him, and indeed according to Bolger´s own (unproven) theories, he will not have the required stamina.
for staying: he is a very relaxed horse and the jdeal type for the Derby. His sire New Approach, also trained by Bolger, won the Derby and so did his sire Galileo, clearly the foremost Derby sire of this generation, with 5 runners in today´s field. New Approach was also regarded as a non-stayer before he won the Derby and yesterday his daughter Talent won the Oaks over this CD. If you go back far enough in his pedigree, there is also plenty of stamina on the dam´s side.

Crucially, we think, he is the best horse in the race, with easily the best form and the highest rating; He has the class and every horse gets the distance once (so they say). We therefore think he will stay the trip today and expect him to win. Is he a good bet? That is a different question and depends on your idea of value. Shergar was probably a good bet when he won at slight odds-on, but generally hot favourites in big races are poor value bets. If Dawn Approach is at evens or less, as he has been for ther past few weeks, then he is no value; however there are signs today that his price is on the drift, and he may well go off at 6-4, or even better. In that case, he would be a good bet.

And if he does not win, who will? Obvjously an Irish winner is still likely, as Aidan O´Brien saddles no fewer than 5 runners, with his son Joseph on Battle of Marengo, Ryan Moore on the unbeaten Ruler of the World, as well as Festive Cheer (Seamus Heffernan) and Flying the Flag (Colm O´Donoghue), who are presumably the pacemakers. Clearly O´Brien will have some tactical plan up his sleeve, but if Dawn Approach is the horse we think he is, that will make no difference, and setting a very fast pace- or even a very slow one- would just play into his hands.

There are only 3 English-trained runners, and a home win looks very unlikely. Libertarian (Elaine Burke/ William Buick) is undoubtedly the best of them; he won the Dante Stakes as a complete outsider, staying on well,but we are dubious about the value of that form. He is also by New Approach, so that is in his favour.

Then there are the two continentals - French-trained Ocovango (André Fabre/ Pierre-Charles Boudot) and our German hope Chopin (Andreas Wöhler/ Jamie Spencer). Chopin has been supplemented and was bought by Qatar Racing after his very easy win in the Dr. Busch; that was over a mile, but the trainer is convinced that he will stay the trip. He looked very good at Krefeld and we think he has a realistic chance of finishing in the first four - but probably not of actually winning. However we certainly hope he runs well, and also Ocovango, who is by the great German stallion Monsun. Ocovango, the third unbeaten runner in the field, had done nothing wrong, and Fabre, one of the greatest trainers ever, sounds remarkably confident. His jockey is relatively inexperienced and has never ridden at Epsom before (he has a ride in the 2yo race two hours earlier) but he is very talented and that should be no problem. At his current price of 8-1, Ocovango looks a good each-way bet.
Our recommendations therefore are: Dawn Approach to win, if 6-4 or better; Ocovango each-way, and a small patriotic place bet on Chopin.