Derby Day!

it´s Derby Day at Epsom and the famous race, to be run over 1 1 /2 miles at 17.00 CET, is still arguably the best-known horse race in the world. Twelve 3yo colts line up, but the race revolves around just one of them: Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), unbeaten in 7 runs so far and impressive last time when winning the 2,000 Guineas, which has so often been the best guide to this race - Camelot, Sea the Stars et al- despite the much shorter distance. And that is exactly the problem: will he stay the trip today? Of course we will know for sure a few minutes after 5 o´clock, but the arguments are as follows:

against staying: he was a precocious 2yo, winning in March (!!) and then taking the Coventry at Royal Ascot, a race almost always won by a sprinter/ miler. The dam´s side of his pedigree suggests that he should be best up to a mile. Bolger, who also bred him, did not consider him as a possible Derby horse until Godolphin bought into him, and indeed according to Bolger´s own (unproven) theories, he will not have the required stamina.
for staying: he is a very relaxed horse and the jdeal type for the Derby. His sire New Approach, also trained by Bolger, won the Derby and so did his sire Galileo, clearly the foremost Derby sire of this generation, with 5 runners in today´s field. New Approach was also regarded as a non-stayer before he won the Derby and yesterday his daughter Talent won the Oaks over this CD. If you go back far enough in his pedigree, there is also plenty of stamina on the dam´s side.

Crucially, we think, he is the best horse in the race, with easily the best form and the highest rating; He has the class and every horse gets the distance once (so they say). We therefore think he will stay the trip today and expect him to win. Is he a good bet? That is a different question and depends on your idea of value. Shergar was probably a good bet when he won at slight odds-on, but generally hot favourites in big races are poor value bets. If Dawn Approach is at evens or less, as he has been for ther past few weeks, then he is no value; however there are signs today that his price is on the drift, and he may well go off at 6-4, or even better. In that case, he would be a good bet.

And if he does not win, who will? Obvjously an Irish winner is still likely, as Aidan O´Brien saddles no fewer than 5 runners, with his son Joseph on Battle of Marengo, Ryan Moore on the unbeaten Ruler of the World, as well as Festive Cheer (Seamus Heffernan) and Flying the Flag (Colm O´Donoghue), who are presumably the pacemakers. Clearly O´Brien will have some tactical plan up his sleeve, but if Dawn Approach is the horse we think he is, that will make no difference, and setting a very fast pace- or even a very slow one- would just play into his hands.

There are only 3 English-trained runners, and a home win looks very unlikely. Libertarian (Elaine Burke/ William Buick) is undoubtedly the best of them; he won the Dante Stakes as a complete outsider, staying on well,but we are dubious about the value of that form. He is also by New Approach, so that is in his favour.

Then there are the two continentals - French-trained Ocovango (André Fabre/ Pierre-Charles Boudot) and our German hope Chopin (Andreas Wöhler/ Jamie Spencer). Chopin has been supplemented and was bought by Qatar Racing after his very easy win in the Dr. Busch; that was over a mile, but the trainer is convinced that he will stay the trip. He looked very good at Krefeld and we think he has a realistic chance of finishing in the first four - but probably not of actually winning. However we certainly hope he runs well, and also Ocovango, who is by the great German stallion Monsun. Ocovango, the third unbeaten runner in the field, had done nothing wrong, and Fabre, one of the greatest trainers ever, sounds remarkably confident. His jockey is relatively inexperienced and has never ridden at Epsom before (he has a ride in the 2yo race two hours earlier) but he is very talented and that should be no problem. At his current price of 8-1, Ocovango looks a good each-way bet.
Our recommendations therefore are: Dawn Approach to win, if 6-4 or better; Ocovango each-way, and a small patriotic place bet on Chopin.