Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot

the Coronation Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile at 16.45 CET is the only Group One today at Royal Ascot and with 17 runners is a very open contest. The two key races here are clearly the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May and the Irish equivalent 3 weeks later. In the fofmer race, Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) ran on strongly to defeat Just the Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) by half a length with Snow Queen (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) fifth and Maureen (Hannon/ Frankie Dettori) sixth. Sky Lantern has not run since, but Just the Judge reappeared to win in very good style at the Curragh, with Rehns Nest (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) runner-up, Big Break (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) fourth, Mizzava (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) fifth, Maureen again sixth.
Logically one could expect the two Guineas winners to dominate here, but the trouble is that this race -unlike most of the mile races at the meeting- is run over the round course, and they have had the bad luck to have drawn the two outside stalls, which is a huge disadvantage. French challenger Siyenica (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) comes into the reckoning, but the two we really like are both owned by Khaled Abdullah: Big Break, who caught the eye in a big way at the Curragh, and Pavlosk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who is unbeaten in two starts; she is taking a huge leap in class here but looks well worth her place in this field. Big Break is a sister to the super-consistent Famous Name and we think that she is the most solid bet here. The track was watered last night, there has been some light rain this morning and the ground will probably not be as fast as yesterday- although still good to firm. This can also be to Big Break´s advantage.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sandiva - Joyeuse - Wonderfully
2. Race: Greatwood - Hillstar - Contributer
3. Race: Just The Judge - Sky Lantern - Big Break
4. Race: Albasharah - Dick Doughtywylie - Sheikhzayedroad
5. Race: Leading Light - Disclaimer - Nichols Canyon
6. Race: Enrol - Emilio Largo - Democretes