Gold Cup today with German runners

The Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET at Royal Ascot today is not only the highlight of today´s card but also the most prestigious race of the meeting - even if not the best by class, as it is over an extreme distance contested by very few thoroughbreds. There is a large field of 18 runners, the biggest since the war, and 4 Irish, 3 French and 2 German challengers make it a truly international occasion.

We will start with the German runners- Altano (Eduardo Pedroza) and Earl of Tinsdal (William Buick), both trained by Andreas Wöhler. Eddie is the stable jockey, but there is no doubt that the Earl is the main hope. Altano won at Hoppegarten last time, but that was the Earl´s first race of the season- he has come on a ton since then, according to Wöhler - and he was conceding 4 lbs. There is however a big problem with Earl of Tinsdal - he needs soft ground to show his best form, and he looks unlikely to get it. The rain has stayed away so far, and unless it pours in the next 6 hours, the ground will definitely be against him. Altano, on the other hand, goes well on firmish ground, although he does not have the class of the Earl, who is actually top-rated here.

The going could well have an important role to play here, as others who would like some rain to fall include Rite of Passage (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), El Salvador (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and probably the likely favourite, the Queen´s Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who is a daughter of Monsun and won the Queen´ s Vase at this meeting last year. However like both the Germans and also the French runners, she has never run further than 2 miles. One who is certain to stay is Rite of Passage, who won the race in 2010. That was a brilliant piece of training by Weld - his previous race was over hurdles at Cheltenham!- but he has only run twice since. He is a very lightly-raced 9yo with only 12 races in his record - 6 of them in NH events- and frankly, it will be a miracle if he wins again. Weld is possibly the only trainer who could bring it off, but we just can´t believe it.

Another Irish N.H.performer who is certain to stay is Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Johnny Murtagh), who won twice over extreme distances at this meeting last year. He possibly does not have the class of some of the others, but looks a banker for a place. We also like Saddlers Rock (John Oxx/ Declan McDonough), one of the few who will appreciate the going and who was third last year behind Godolphin´s Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who has run badly ever since. One of the most interesting candidates is Times Up, previously trained by John Dunlop and now with his son Ed, and partnered by the most successful Royal Ascot of recent times, Frankie Dettori. Times Up won last year´s Doncaster Cup, over 2 1/4 miles, by a neck from High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ Graham Lee), with Colour Vision and Saddler´s Rock well behind. That was possibly the best trial for today, so we make Times Up, High Jinx and Simenon our 3 against the field, but some heavy rain in the next few hours would certainly bring Earö of Tinsdal into the equation.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Coach House - Coulsty - No Nay Never
2. Race: Alive Alive Oh - Just Pretending - Winsili
3. Race: Estimate - Rite Of Passage - Saddler`S Rock
4. Race: Wentworth - Cape Peron - Maputo
5. Race: Remote - Indian Chief - Shikarpour
6. Race: Bold Sniper - Excellent Result - Pether`s Moon