Sunday, June 23, 2013

Back to earth with a bump

After the splendours of Royal Ascot, we are back to earth with a bump today, when 3 of the 4 meetings are low-level N.H. cards, while the sole flat meeting is at Pontefract, where last year´s winners reappear to contest the two top races - Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) in the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET and Orsippus (M.Smith/ Neil Callan) in the 2 1/4 mile handicap half an hour later. Both should go well again, but we will oppose them with Main Sequence (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) and German-bred Kayef (Michael Scudamore/ Paul Mulrennan) respectively. Brown Panther was beaten favourite in the 2011 German Derby, while Main Sequence was runner-up to Camelot at Epsom last year; while we all know that last year´s Derby form has not worked out at all, it is probably still better than a fifth place at Hamburg. Orsippus has been in good form over hurdles this year, but Kayef has been dropped in the weights and seems very nicely handicapped here.

Over jumps, 3 German-breds that we have been following run at Worcester. Double Handful (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) runs in the novice chase at 15.20; he also ran in the German Derby and since moving to the U.K. has won 3 times over hurdles, all with this jockey aboard. He ran well enough on his fencing debut and can get off the mark here. Escardo (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) runs in the following race, a handicap chase over 2 miles; he is no star, but ran well enough at Hexham 8 days ago to suggest that he has a solid each-way chance here. Another half hour on and Bridgwater saddles Engai in the maiden hurdle with Jake Hodson up. In theory he should not win here, as several of his opponents are higher rated, but he has been in good form recently and we think he is another good each-way bet.

A German-bred at Hexham, but with a lesser chance, is Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Eddie Lineham) in the handicap chase at 17.00; he is very inconsistent and ran badly here last week, but that was over hurdles, and he is better over fences. He could be an interesting long shot here. Our main fancy at Hexham however is Hi George (Malcom Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) in the handicap hurdle at 16.30, who has been running in better company. There are huge fields at the Irish fixture at Gowran Park and winners look hard to find. Mister Nibble was a useful bumper and if he takes to hurdling can win the opening race at 15.15 for the Steven/ Stuart Crawford team.

Pontefract - betting forecast:
1. Race: Sunrise Star - Dutch Courage - Chantrea
2. Race: Dare To Achieve - The Welsh Wizard - Near Time
3. Race: Salutation - Carthaginian - Gabrial The Great
4. Race: Brown Panther - Main Sequence - Souviens Toi
5. Race: Tartan Jura - Cloudy Spirit - Art History
6. Race: Kikonga - Miss Cap Estel - Of Course Darling
7. Race: Magical Rose - Teetotal - Chasing Dreams