Saturday, June 08, 2013

German runners at Haydock

lots of racing today and the main action takes place at Haydock with two Group and two listed races. There is a strong German challenge here in 3 of these races, and to be honest, we think all 3 runners have a good chance.
Nymphea (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) sets the ball rolling in the Pinnacle Stakes, a Group Three for older fillles and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 15.40. She was runner-up in last year´s Preis der Diana and started this season with a listed victory at Baden-Baden; she stays well and should act on the ground (good to firm) and frankly we cannot see how she can not be placed in this company. Prussian (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona) is just about top-rated here after her fine second place to Sajjhaa in Dubai, but she seems best at shorter distances. More dangerous in our opinion are Ambivalent (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), whose trainer has won this for the past two seasons and who was runner-up in a Group Two at York last time, and Quiz Mistress (Hughie Morrison/ Pat Dobbs), who did not stay 1 3/4 miles at York but whose previous head defeat by Universal at Newbury reads well.
Schiergen and Starke follow up with Amarillo, also owned by Jürgen Imm´s Stall Nizza, in the Group Three John of Gaunt Stakes over seven furlongs at 16.15. Amarillo is very consistent, was runner-up in the German 2,000 Guineas last season; we do not think that the distance is a problem, but the fast ground could be. Once again Roger Varian with Eton Forever (Neil Callan) and Hughie Morrison with last year´s winner Pastoral Player (Graham Lee) provide the main dangers, although old Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) would win this if anywhere near his old form,
Possibly Gracia Directa (Dominik Moser/ Oliver Wilson) in the Cecil Frail Stakes, a listed race for fillies over 6 furlongs at 16.50, has the best chance of the German runners. She won a Group Three in York last year and made a pleasing seasonal debut at Munich; the ground was soft that day but she is much better on the firm. The dangers are probably the two 3yo´s in the field, City Girl (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) and Hoyam (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), but the latter, forecast to start favourite, seems better suited by 5 furlongs.
The other listed race is for 3yo´s over 6 furlongs at 17.25 and here we expect Pearl Acclaim (Robert Cowell/ Jamie Spencer) to come out on top; she won a decent handicap under a big weight at Ascot last time and looks well up to listed class.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sun Central - Beyond Conceit - Oriental Fox
2. Race: Prussian - Ambivalent - Nymphea
3. Race: Amarillo - Eton Forever - Pastoral Player

4. Race: Hoyam - Ladies Are Forever - City Girl
5. Race: Professor - Mar Mar - Pearl Acclaim

6. Race: Foxtrot Jubilee - Shore Step - Brazen
7. Race: Elhaame - Double Discount - Enzaal