Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Listed race this evening at Kempton

Easily the best race at today´s 4 meetings in the U.K. is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 18.30 CET at this evening´s all-weather meeting at Kempton. Ex-German Bolivia (Lucy Wadham/ Luke Morris) runs here; she had smart form in Germany in 2009, but has shown very little on her U.K. starts so far. On her best German form, she would have a good chance, but we would rather wait and see, and prefer Laaheb (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills), who usually makes the running; he has not won this year, but has mainly been running in much stronger events. Barbican (Alan Bailey/ Ryan Moore) keeps on improving, but probably needs to improve further to trouble Laaheb.

Nicky Henderson has a tremendous strike rate this season, and we expect him to score with both of his runners today. He has booked Tony McCoy for the Queen´s Open Hearted, who makes his debut over hurdles at 13.40 at Uttoxeter and is expected to go on to much better things. At Hereford, Henderson saddles Floreat (David Bass) in the bumper at 16.50. There is very little form to go on here - more than half the field are running for the first time under rules, as is Floreat, but the stable´s reputation ensures that he is likely to start a hot favourite.

Paul Nicholls and Donald McCain are two more trainers in great form, and they can also both land a double. Nicholls with Escort´Men at 14.20 at Hereford and Final Gift half an hour later, both partnered by Daryl Jacob; and McCain with Cuban Piece at 14.30 at Catterick and Our Mick at 16.00, both ridden by Jason Maguire.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Southwell (N.H.) and Lingfield (a.w.)

With Ayr off, there are now only 2 very modest meetings in the U.K. today. Southwell stages N.H. racing, with some small fields and several likely odds-on favourites. Donald McCain and Jason Maguire are in tremendous form and can land a double with Lively Baron in the novices chase at 13.50 CET and Golden Call in the novice hurdle half an hour later. Mister Dillon (Nicky Henderson/ RJ Killortan) is another probable short-priced winner at 16.30. John Ferguson, Sheikh Mohammed´s bloodstock adviser, have an amazing strike rate with ex-Maktoum horses running over hurdles and can take the maiden hurdle at 14.55 with debutant Commemorate (Paul Moloney), who was listed class on the flat. The fields are bigger at Lingfield but the betting opportunities equally poor. Easily the best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.50, but this looks very tricky. Top-weight Secret Witness (Ron Harris/ Joe Fanning) was just caught in a listed race over this CD 17 days ago, with Cochabamba (Ron Tea l/ John Fahy) fourth, Five Star Junior (Linda Stubbs/ James Sullivan) seventh, and Norville (David Evans/ Matthew Cosham) 11th of 12. Secret Witness could of course go one better in this lower grade, but it was a very tight finish and he has been raised 6 lbs for that second place. There are plenty of possibilities here and we suggest, but without much confidence, Cochabamba.

Monday, November 28, 2011

3 meetings today

3 very poor meetings today and the cards at Ffos Las, Folkestone and Wolverhampton (all-weather flat racing) are not at all punter-friendly. The "best" race is the 3 miles handicap chase at Ffos Las at 15.20 CET with 9 runners, 3 of whom were pulled up last time, two have not run for ages and two were beaten out of sight on their latest outing That leaves Red Rouble (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), runner-up over this CD last time, the only runner with halfway decent ferm, so he is the logical selection. Two German-breds with chances here are Super Directa (Lucy Wadham/ Dominic Elsworth) in the beginners chase at 14.15 and Indian Tiger (Pat Murphy/ Jason Maguire) in the maiden hurdle half an hour later.

At Folkestone, the card is even weaker. Two likely hot favourites who can score here are Lifestyle (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass), a useful hurdler making his chasing debut at 14.00 and Golden Firebird (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the mares bumper at 16.40.

The card is even worse at Wolverhampton, where 7 of the 8 races are class 6. The exception is the class 5 (great!) handicap over 2 miles at 18.20. Top Irish trainer Gordon Elliott runs Priors Gold (Brendan Powell) here; he was an easy winner of a maiden here last Friday and can score gain under a penalty. It seems ages since Lovelace (Richard Fahey/ William Carson) won a Group Two at Baden-Baden and it is depressing to see him run now in the 7 furlongs seller at15.45, but we hope that he can at least run well in this lowly company.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

4 N.H. meetings today

4 jumps meetings today, two each in Britain and Ireland, and the best racing comes from Navan in Ireland. There are some huge fields here, with 26 running in the main feature, the Troytown Chase at 15.20 CET, one of Ireland´s top 3 mile handicaps. Prince de Beauchene (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) are the classiest runners, but also have the highest weights, and we expect the winner to come from lower down the card. German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey) out of an Acatenango mare -seems fairly weighted and could have an each-way chance in a very competitive event. Elliott also has a fancied runner in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 13.45 with Mount Balbunben (Davy Condon), but we just prefer the unbeaten Texas Jack (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry). Mullins has booked Ruby´s sister Katie to partner Hats and Heels in the listed mares bumper at 16.25 and she must have a good chance.
Mullins has put his nephew Emmet up on Ceol Rua in the mares novice hurdle at Wexford at 14.25 and she will probably be the hottest favourite of the day. Another likely winner here is Merchant Royal in the hunter chase at 16.05. It seems rather unfair of Dermot Weld to book Robbie McNamara in these events for amateur riders only, as he is a better jockey than most of the professionals!
In the U.K. we expect Donald McCain and Jason Maguire, who brought off the unusual feat of winning the top events at two meetings yesterday, to continue their good run at Carlisle with Avenging Aces at 13.50, Mountain Hiker at 14.55, Glenwood Knight at 15.25 and Chester Lad at 16.00. None of these is bombproof, but we think that Chester Lad, having his first run for the stable, is probably the best bet.
The card at Leicester is poor, but Tony McCoy graces proceedings and he can land a double with Not til Monday for John Jenkins at 15.10 and Speed Master for Nicky Henderson at 15.40. We are less convinced by Jonjo O´Neill´s Castlerock in the handicap hurdle at 16.45 and prefer the consistent Taste the Wine (Bernard Llewellyn/ Robert Williams).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: His Excellency - Chill - Argocat
2. Race: Texas Jack - Mount Benbulben - Rebel Fitz
3. Race: Down Under - Starling Lady - Lochan Lacha
4. Race: Formidableopponent - Dantes King - True Character
5. Race: Prince De Beauchene - Groody Hill - Some Target
6. Race: Flemenstar - Nearest The Pin - High Desert
7. Race: Hats And Heels - Supreme Carolina - Missunited

Saturday, November 26, 2011

rest of today´s racing

the other big race at Newbury is the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle at 15.35 CET, which looks at the mercy of Big Buck´s (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh). This brilliant 8yo, officially rated the best hurdler in Britain and Ireland, despite running over the unfashionable distance of 3 miles, has not been defeated since unseating his rider the last in the Hennessy here 3 years ago. He was switched back to hurdles after that and has won all his 12 races since, including this event twice (in fact he is 4 from 4 over CD) and the Cheltnham race 3 times. Barring accidents, he cannot lose today, but he will be at an unbackable price. Sparky May (Kieren Burke/ Timmy Murphy) and Duc de Regniere (Tom Symonds/ Denis O´Regan), both having their first run for a new trainer, can chase him home.
Nicholls look set for another profitable Saturday and we expect him also to take the handicap hurdle at 15.05, where he has 2 runners, top-weight Rock on Ruby (Walsh) and Empire Levant (Harry Derham), who was an easy winner over this CD on Thursday and can go in again. Bottom-weight Dream Function (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) looks the main danger. Nicholls and Walsh can also win the novice hurdle at 13.55 with Prospect Wells, who looks a very nice prospect, but he may have hie work cut out to concede 5lbs to All the Aces (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Graghty), who is making his debut over sticks but was group class on the flat.
Main interest otherwise will be centred on trainer Donald McCain and his stable jockey Jason Maguire, who should win the opener Bangor at 13.10 with the smart Peddlers Cross. Then they get in the helicopter and it´s off to Newcastle and Overturn in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at 15.20. Even though there are only 5 runners here, and 2 of them no-hopers, this is still a fascinating contest. Overturn, a strong front-runner and equally at home over hurdles and on the flat, was arguably lucky to win at Ascot last week, but is very smart. He now faces Binocular (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) and Celestial Hero (Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), the Champion Hurdle hopes of the top two .NH. stables. Binocular in fact won the Cheltenham race in 2010, but has been well put in his place by Hurricane Fly since. He has also twice been beaten at odds-on in the Fighting Fifth. Despite that, we expect him to win today, although this is more a race to watch than to bet on.

Betting forecast Bangor:
1. Race: Peddlers Cross - Minella Class - Brother Bob
2. Race: Titeuf de Tierce - Coolbeg - Laneguy
3. Race: Quotica De Poyans - Oscar Prairie - Chapolimoss
4. Race: Sydney Paget - Grove Pride - Arbor Supreme
5. Race: Peckhamecho - The Weatherman - Pampanito
6. Race: Johns Spirit - Banyan Tree - Houston Dynimo
7. Race: Brave Alliance - Scholastica - Fortuna Rose

Ruby Walsh fit to ride today?

Ruby Walsh took a nasty fall at Newbury yesterday and had to give up his remaining rides, but it appears he will be able to ride today. He has 5 rides booked at Newbury, all of them trained by Paul Nicholls and strongly fancied, including the brilliant Big Buck´s, hot favourite for the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle.

Hennessy Gold Cup day at Newbury

the Newbury card today is one of the best of the season, with the Hennessy Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.10 CET, the main feature. With 18 runners this is its usual difficult puzzle for punters and one has to start with Paul Nicholls´ 3 runners- top-weight Neptune Collonges (Harry Derham), Aiteen Thirtythree (Ruby Walsh) and Michel le Bon (Noel Fehily) representing the champion who has taken this race twice recently with Denman. Ruby ´s choice automatically makes 1833 the favourite, but we are not totally convinced, while Michel le Bon is very lightly raced and has not run for 2 years. We would not be at all urprised to see Neptune Collonges come out best of this trio, even though he has to concede lumps of weight all round. He is a class act and has run in the last 4 Gold Cups at Cheltenham, twice finishing in the money. However he is well held on Scottish Grand National form by Beshabar (Tim Vaughan/ Aidan Coleman), who has not run since then and is stil l on what looks a decent weight. Stamina could well be an important factor here, with several runners unproven at the distance, notably Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Great Endeavour (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), now running over 3/4 mile further. He is officially 6 lbs well in at the weight, but we do not believe he will get the trip. The race looks certain to be run at a strong pace with several front-runners in the field, among them Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Batchelor), who needs softer ground, and German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Nina Carberry), who is possibly better over hurdles. Hobbs also runs Planet of Sound /Richard Johnson) and Balthazar King (Giles Hawkins), of which the former is certainly the stable´s main hope. Also heavily backed this week have been Wayward Prince (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello) and Wymott (Donald McCain/ Graham Lee). There are at least a dozen possible winners here, but we shall go with Beshabar, while Neptune Collonges could be wor th a small each-way bet at the likely prices.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Earth Planet - Horsham Lad - Battlecry
2. Race: Prospect Wells - All The Aces - Carrigmorna King
3. Race: Master Fiddle - Made In Time - Iron Chancellor
4. Race: Empire Levant - Rock On Ruby - Titan De Sarti
5. Race: Big Buck`S - Sparky May - Duc De Regniere
6. Race: Aiteen Thirtythree - Great Endeavour - Wymott
7. Race: Fistral Beach - Hector`S Choice - Coup Royale

Friday, November 25, 2011

Newbury: Hennessy meeting continues

today is the second day of Newbury´s Hennessy meeting and once again a novice chase with only 4 runners is the most interesting event - this time over 2 1/2 miles at 14.35 CET. Nicky Henderson has 2 runners here, with Bobs Worth (Barry Geraghty) his main contender; he is making his debut over fences here but was a very smart novice hurdler last season and has won his last 5 races.

The one to beat is Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard), champion bumper 2 years ago, a top hurdler last year, and already a winner over fences. However he fell at Cheltenham last time and has to give the Henderson duo 7 lbs, so Bobs Worth is preferred. Paul Nicholls does not have a runner in that race, but otherwise he and Henderson look set to dominate proceedings once again. We particularly like the hurdling debutants Ranjaan at 13.00 and Broomfield at 16.50, both trained by Nicholls and partnered by Ruby Walsh. The handicap chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 16.15 is a very open race, in which all 7 runners have a chance, including the two German-breds Passato (Jo Davis/ Richard Johnson) and Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily); however we just have a tiny preference for top-weight Oh Crick (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) who ran better than the placings suggest in a much hotter race at Cheltenham.

Nicky Henderson sends just one runner north to Doncaster, Eradicate (David Bass) in the novice chase at 14.25, and he can continue the stable´s fine run here, with only two inferior rivals to beat. We also like German-bred Quicuyo (James Ewart/ Nick Scholfield) in the 2 mile 3 furlongs handicap chase here at 15.35; the brother to Quijano should be able to concede weight all round in this company. Ewart can also score at Musselburgh with the consistent Allow Me (Brian Hughes), who has been in the money all career starts aad can finally get his head in front in the maiden hurdle at 14.50.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Hennessy meeting starts today

There are 5 meetings today, but easily the best racing comes from Newbury, where the first day of the Hennessy meeting is scheduled. Obviously the strongest card will be on Saturday, but today´s programme is also very decent and the highlight is the Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 15.10 CET. Only 4 runners here, but they are all useful and Grands Crus (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is the clear favourite. He was the second best hurdler last year over this trip, and Big Bucks the only horse to have defeated him in the U.K. for almost two years. He began his chasing career with an easy win at Cheltenham, and it will be a big disappointment if he does not score again today. Sonofvic (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) has won his last 3 races and is also expected to go places over fences; however his form cannot compare with that of Grands Crus and he is also trying this trip for the first time.

Also at Newbury, we hope that Lidar (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) can take the novice handicap chase at 14.00 - another race with only 4 runners while German-bred Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) has an each-way chnc in the novo s handoap hurdle at 14.35. The Monsun gelding has bottom weight here and has finished runner-up on his last two outings; however this is a much tougher race. Buffalo Bob (Kim Bailey/ Charles Greene) won the handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles and goes for the double at 15.45. However his form since is very poor, so we prefer Zarrafakt, who was pulled-up in this last year, but who always runs his best race first time out and after a long break, which is the case today.

There are several German-breds running today, but by far the most interesting is Val Mondo (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who goes for the novice hurdle that opens the card at 13.20 at Uttoxeter. He is making his N.H. debut here, and with 18 runners engaged - quite a few of them highly regarded - he is no good thing, especially as the stable is not in great form. But he was easily the best of these on the flat, winning the German St. Leger lest year and running fifth to Lucas Cranach in the Hansa-Preis in June of this year. Mangonel (Jim Best/ Colin Bolger) looks the best bet here. She has won twice in the past ten days and can complete a quick hat-trick at 15.00, as she is still very well handicapped.

Although Paul Nicholls has some fancied runners today, Ruby Walsh is riding at Thurles in Irland for Willie Mullins, and can win on Bishopsfurze at 13.35, Apt Approach at 14.05 and Zaidpour in the hurdle race at 15.40. Zaidpour, one of the top novices last year and now has to defeat Oscar Time (MM Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen), runner-up last year not only in this but also in the Grand National.

Newbury - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tempest River - Kentford Grey Lady - Arctic Actress
2. Race: The Cockney Mackem - Celtus - Gandalfe
3. Race: Sentimentaljourney - Beside The Fire - Di Kaprio
4. Race: Grands Crus - Sonofvic - Viking Blond
5. Race: That`Lldoboy - Rackham Lerouge - Vino Griego
6. Race: Empire Levant - Right Stuff - Dubai Crest
7. Race: Captain Kelly - Barenger - Sammyman

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, and the best event is the listed race over a mile at 19.35 CET this evening´s Kempton fixture on the all-weather. Clinical (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) is in great form and has won listed races in 3 different countries recently (including Germany) but they were all fillies events and it will not be so easy against the colts. This is quite open and our preference is for Riggins (Ed Walker/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert), who won this (in a dead heat) last year and came back to form with a CD victory over Mull of Kullough. That one (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) can boost the form by winning at 16.15 at Lingfield this afternoon, at today´s other all-weather meeting. The most interesting events at Lingfield are the two divisions of the 2yo maiden at 13.40 and 14.10, with runners from several top stables, e.g. Cecil, Gosden, Balding, Ed Dunlop et al; with very little form to go on, these races are not good betting opportunities, but they should be watched with care.

Over jumps, it is significant that Irish trainer Charlie Byrnes has booked Tony McCoy for his two runners at Wetherby - Fists of Fury 13.55 and Sea of Thunder at 14.30; both of them have winning possibilities, but there is some tough opposition. McCoy can also win the 3yo hurdle at 15.35 on School for Scandal (Jim Best), who was quite consistent on the flat and makes his N.H. debut here. We also hope that German-bred Bocciani runs well in the handicap chase at 15.00. There is a poor card at Fontwell, where Martin Keighley and Aidan Cawley can land a double with Always Bold at 14.50 and Ukrainian Star half an hour later. In Ireland, Sunday´s abandoned N.H. meeting at Cork is now staged today. New Phase (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara) is a very useful hurdler and can concede the weight to the smart, but exposed, Kempes (Willie Mullins/ David Casey) and Psycho (Tony Martin/ Ruby Walsh).

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Cliffords Reprieve - Bailadeira - Abadejo
2. Race: Nially Noo - Scarlet Rocks - Absa Lutte
3. Race: Lisahane Bog - Sand Skier - Hurricane Spirit
4. Race: Compton Bird - Hesperides - Hey Fiddle Fiddle
5. Race: Woop Woop - Layla`S King - Black Iceman
6. Race: Clinical - Riggins - Edinburgh Knight
7. Race: Sermons Mount - Abriachan - Tislaam

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Henderson to continue winning streak

After Nicky Henderson brought off the tremendous feat yesterday of saddling 7 winners from 7 runners, we expect his winning run to continue today at Lingfield, which stages one of its rare N.H. meetings. Heather Royal (Andrew Tinkler) won a similar race over CD last time and can follow up in the mares novice hurdle at 13.50 CET. She carries 7 lbs penalty however which gives Elegent Touch (Emma Lavelle/ Noel Fehily), 4 1/2 lengths behind her in third then, chance of gaining revenge. Half an hour later Kid Cassidy can complete a double for the Henderson/ Tinkler team; he was a smart novice hurdler and is expected to make a winning debut over fences. Another interesting race here is the novice hurdle over just short of 2 1/2 miles at 14.50 with several debutants, among them the ex-German Next Hight (Charlie Mann/ Fehily), who is out of Preis der Diana winner Night Petticoat.

There is very little quality on view at the other N.H. meeting at Sedgefield. The best horse running here is Countrywide Flame (John Quinn/ Dean Pratt), who has been in good form this year winning 3 times on the flat and twice over hurdles. Despite a huge weight he can take the 3yo hurdle at 15.00; the debutant Eagle Rock (Tom Tate/ Graham Lee) looks the only danger. Bound for Glory (Donald Mcain/ Henry Brooke) can win the novice hurdle at 14.00 here.

The card for the all-weather meeting at Southwell is uninspiring to say the least. If you want to have a bet here, our advice is to stick to CD specialists, such as Equileus Pictor (John Spearing/ Sophie Doyle)( at 13.10, Ingleby Arch (David Barron/ Lee McNiff) or Calculating (Mark Usher/ Lee Newnes) at 16.10.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Henderson to bounce back

Nicky Henderson has his string in great form, but was upstaged over the weekend by runners from the Paul Nicholls (Saturday) and Willie Mullins (Sunday) stables. However we expect him to bounce back with winners at all 3 U.K. meetings. The best card today is at Kempton, which stages above-average racing for a Monday, and Henderson saddles Whoops a Daisy (Barry Geraghty) in the main event, a listed mares hurdles race at 14.30 CET. She was runner-up in a similar race last time and could go on better here, although Irish raider Elyaadi (Jon Queally/ Timmy Murphy) could be dangerous. Henderson and Geraghty have even better chances in the first two races with Darlaan in the opening novice hurdle at 13.30 and Chablais in the novice chase half an hour later. Both are among the stables most promising novices. The same team should also take the beginners chase at 15.05 with Mossley, who in theory only has to jump round to defeat his 3 modest opponents. German-bred Amore Mio (Richard P hillips/ Robert Thornton) has only ever won once, almost 2 years go, but still appears to have a good each-way chance in the handicap hurdle at 15.35.

Henderson´s likely winner at Ffos Las is Top of the Range (David Bass) in the opening maiden hurdle at 13.50 Valley Lad (Richard Johnson), one of 3 Tim Vaughan entries here, looks the main danger. Later on, the much improved My Brother Sylvester (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who has won his last 3 races - all in October- has top weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.00. Obviously he has good prospects of completing a fourtimer, but he has gone up a massive 29 lb in the weights, and we make Dantari (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) a possible each-way alterntive in receipt of 18lb, including the jockeys allowance He has been running - admittedly without much success- in better races.

Henderson has more good chances at Ludlow, where Owen Glendower at 14.10 and Foxbridge at 14,45 will both start short-priced favourites for jockey Andrew Tinkler. The selling hurdle at 13.40 also looks interesting. Numen (Lucy Jones/ Jake Greenall) is the obvious choice here, having won 3 times before being outclassed at Cheltenham, but one time German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Jimmy McCarthy) is also interesting on his N.H. debut.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Exeter and Towcester

Today´s U.K, jump racing is very low grade compared to the excellent sport we saw yesterday, when the highlight was Paul Nicholls´ magnificient double with Master Minded and Kauto Star. However the Ditcheat trainer could be on the scoresheet at both of today´ s meetings, with Minella Stars at 14.30 CET and Flaming Gorge at 15.00, both ridden by Daryl Jacob at Exeter, and Harry the Viking at 14.45 at Towcester.

Two horses with interesting pedigrees also catch our eye at Exeter, though both are likely to start at long odds.The novice hurdle at 16.00 looks a better than average race, with the highly-rated Knight Pass (Warren Greatrex/ Noel Fehily) and the last-time-faller Outrageous Request (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien) the likely favourites. But Hobbs also saddles the German-bred Big Easy (Giles Hawkins), who has a nice pedigree, but not as good as that of Albertus Pictor (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman),who makes his N.H. debut here and is out of German Group One winner Albanova. And what about Waldsee (Jo Davis/ Brendan Powell), who has top weight in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 16.30? He has shown next to nothing so far, but meets very feeble opposition here and is out of the great Wurftaube and thus a member of Germany´s currently most successful family.

Exeter - betting forecast:
1. Race: Inkberrow Rose - Far From Blonde - Painter Man
2. Race: Minella Stars - Old Wigmore - Simply Wings
3. Race: Flaming Gorge - Bless The Wings - Scoter Fontaine
4. Race: Renard - Robin De Creuse - Baseball Ted
5. Race: Knight Pass - Outrageous Request - Greywell Boy
6. Race: Hector`S House - Rimini - Water Garden


At Towcester we expect two easy winners from last Monday at Plumpton to score again under a 7 lbs penalty - Shernaz (Jim Dreaper/ Richie McGrath) in the handicap chase at 15.15 and Master Milan (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richard McLernon) in the handicap hurdle at 15.45.

Towcester - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tea Caddy - Cross The Flags - Delays Expected
2. Race: Jolibob - Road Train Bob - Bertenbar
3. Race: Harry The Viking - Legendary Hop - Rhythm Seeker
4. Race: Shernaz - Jolly Boys Outing - Timpo
5. Race: Master Milan - Dot Or Feather - Consult
6. Race: Spot The Ball - Safe Investment - Monsieur Georges
7. Race: Typhon De Guye - Great Boss - Wilde Ruby

Ireland: tiny fields at Punchestown

the main meeting today is at Punchestown, but unfortunately the fields have cut up badly. Only 4 line up for the Grade One Morgiana Hurdle at 15.10 CET. This is partly because Willie Mullins´Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly was due to make his seasonal debut here and scared off much of the opposition. However Mullins was not happy with the horse´s work and he was taken out on Thursday.

The trainer is now representd by Thousand Stars (Ruby Walsh), a winner at Atuteuil in June over a much longer distance, and clear best here on ratings. He is by no means a certainty here, as both Oscars Well (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Pittoni (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) are serious dangers, especially the latter who is unbeaten in 4 starts in 2011, two of them on the flat, and could be a major contender for the top hurdles races.

Last time out Pittoni beat Donnas Palm (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) by 12 lengths and that one can boost the form by winning the Grade 2 novice chase half an hour earlier, only his second attempt over fences. Last Instalment (Philip Fenton/ Davy Russell), also chasing for second time, is the obvious danger.

The novice chase over 2 miles at 14.10 is the other graded race and has a slightly bigger field with 7 runners. Lucky William (Tom Cooper/ Barry Geraghty) beat Whodoyouthink (Oliver McKiernan/ Tom Doyle) here last time, but there should be little in it now with the latter 3 lbs better off. The one to beat could be Days Hotel (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), a very easy CD winner last time, while Monastrell (Meade/ Carberry) is also in with a chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: So Young - Fully Funded - Askanna
2. Race: Lucky William - Whodoyouthink - Days Hotel
3. Race: Donnas Palm - Last Instalment - Four Commanders
4. Race: Pittoni - Oscars Well - Thousand Stars

5. Race: Not For Converting - Andunowhat - Dedigout
6. Race: Some Present - Dare To Doubt - Capellanus
7. Race: Make Your Mark - Our Vinnie - Thomond Park

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Master Minded v Somersby at Ascot

It is impossible to be in two places at once, and trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson must be wishing that it were, as they both have fancied runners in several races at both Haydock and Ascot. Even more galling must it be for owner Clive Smith, with his two superstars Kauto Star in action at Haydock and Master Minded at Ascot. We expect Kauto to run a big race but are less optimistic about Master Minded, who although younger, appears to be fading, judged on his recent performances. At his best he would obviously win the Amlin 1955 Chase at 15.10 CET at Ascot, a race he won last year, but we are sceptical, even though he is unbeaten in 3 runs at this track. We strongly fancy Somersby (Hanrietta Knight/ Dominic Elsworth), who has been behind the Nicholls chaser on all 3 occasions they have so far met, but ran him to a short head on one occasion last year and we think can finally pull it off today. Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) could be a threat to both after his lucky win (his leading rivals all fell) in the Haldon Gold Cup, while Kalahari King (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) can also finish in the money, but we will stick with Somersby.

The Grade Two Coral Hurdle at 15.45 is another strong race, in which Oscar Whisky (Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) will be a hot favourite; he has won 7 of his 9 races and finished an excellent third in the Champion Hurdle. However he has to concede 8 lbs all round, no easy task. The much improved King of the Night (Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), who has a nice German pedigree, is a definite threat, as is front-runner Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mush Mir - Deireadh Re - Bowntobebad
2. Race: Bounds And Leaps - Graduation Night - Ballagio
3. Race: Benefique - Lady Karinga - Synthe Davis
4. Race: Master Minded - Somersby - Medermit
5. Race: Oscar Whisky - Overturn - King Of The Night
6. Race: Anquetta - Dan Breen - Takeroc
7. Race: Population - Harry Topper - Be All Man

Long Run, Kauto Star et al at Haydock Park

A fantastic card today at Haydock, headed by the Grade One Betfair Chase over 3 miles at 16.05 CET. Although the field has only 6 runners, 5 of them have pretensions to the highest honours, and two of them have the Cheltenham Gold Cup on their record, the reigning champion Long Run (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen) and the long time top chaser Kauto Star (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh).

Long Run also won the King George last season so has twice left Kauto Star well behind, and many feel that the Nicholls star will never again defeat his 5 years younger rival. Time is certainy against him, as he will be 12 in a few weeks time, but the vibes from the stable are positive and we hope to see Kauto Star win this race for the fourth time. It is certainly premature to write him off, and in our view he is better value than the favourite, who has not been seen out since his brillint win in the Gold Cup. However the stable is in top form (5 winners yesterday!) and if he is fit enough to do himself justice, then he will be a hard not to crack. It is by no means a two horse race. Weird Al (Donald McCain/ Timmy Murphy) ran on strongly to defeat Time for Rupert (Paul Webber/ Will Kennedy) in the Charlie Hall Chase, and is better off at the weights this time so in theory should beat him again, but there could be little in it. Dimnond Hrry (Nick Williams/ Jm Rvly) would hav tartd for tht rc, but was pulld ou ftr minot stbk. If he is back to full fitness, he must play a prominent role, but we feel that he is also no value, having been heavily backed this week, and he is now second favourite. He runs well fresh, so the long break since winning last year´s Hennessy is no problem, but we cannot believe that he is shorter in the betting than Kauto Star. In our view, the race lies between Long Run and Kauto Star and at the likely odds we must go for the old champion.

There is a great supporting card, with the handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 15.30 a very competitive race with 20 runners and as many possible winners. Nicholls and Henderson are also well represented here with Robinson Collonges (Walsh) and Sentry Duty (Jeremiah McGrath) respectively. The former is not so exposed, but we prefer Sentry Duty, who was smart on the flat; he has not really lived up to expectations over hurdles, but could well bounce back here. German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Lucy Alexander), who likes to make the running, is in great form and could also run well, while Benny be Good and Sa Suffit (better handicapped over hurdles than over fences) also make the short list.

We expect Grandouet (Henderson/ McCoy) to defy top weight in the opening 4yo hurdle at 13.15; he looked the likely winner when falling last time out, and is a cut above these opponents; while another top weight who could score here is Any Given Day (McCain Henry Brooke) in the handicap hurdle at 13.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grandouet - Domtaline - Marsh Warbler
2. Race: Arthurian Legend - Indian Daudaie - Get Me Out Of Here
3. Race: Diocles - Balinroab - Herecomesthehollow
4. Race: Neptune Equester - Eyre Square - You Know Yourself
5. Race: Robinson Collonges - Global Power - Dynaste
6. Race: Long Run - Kauto Star - Diamond Harry
7. Race: Gansey - Summery Justice - Merigo

Friday, November 18, 2011

Competitive jumps racing at Haydock and Ascot

Haydock and Ascot both stage top class racing tomorrow (Long Run, Master Minded et al) but they also offer some very competitive racing today, despite generally small fields. At Haydock, the card opens with a very open handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 13.50 CET. The favourite here is Remember Now (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy), but we are not totally convinced. His reputation owes much to his top connections and to the fact that he is a brother to Binocular. We will take a chance on Afsoun (Neil King/ Alex Merriam) -trained by Henderson to finish 3rd in the 2007 Champion Hurdle, but a long way off that form ever since - and Sir Tantallus Hawk (Alan Swinbank/ Fearghal Davis),whose stable is in good form. Th n 3 racs ll hve 5 runnrs or lss, but gill look very tricky. The graduation chase at 14.20 can go to Toubab (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), but Doctor David (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) could be dangerous despite being off for 18 months. Nicholls and Walsh can also take the n ovice chase at 14.55 with Bold Addition, a smart hurdler making his debut over fences. The listed novice hurdle at 15.30, won last year by Toubab, can also go to the same team with Plenty Pocket, although Molotof (Henderson/ McCoy) is a big danger; the other 3 runners are all running over sticks for the first time, but they are all flat winners and receiving weight, so cannot be totally ignored. Super Duty (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) is the hot favourite after his Carlisle romp for the novice hurdle at 16.05, but The Fonz (Pauline Robeson/ Jimmy McCarthy) could be an alternative. He was a decent handicapper on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute and has shown promise on his two hurdles starts.

Haydock - betting forecast:
1. Race: Remember Now - Desert Cry - Sure Josie Sure
2. Race: Toubab - Nadiya De La Vega - Silk Drum
3. Race: Mr Moonshine - Tornado Bob - Bold Addition
4. Race: Molotof - Plenty Pocket - Our Joe Mac
5. Race: Super Duty - The Fonz - City Press
6. Race: Hi George - Eligible - Phoenix Returns


Nicky Henderson is also strongly represented at Ascot and has his main jockey Barry Geraghty riding there. They can win the first two races with Simonsig at 14.00 and Solix at 14.35, and also have a chance with Broadbackbob in the introductory hurdle at 15.10. This however has several interesting runners, for example the smart flat horse Ted Spread (Mark Tompkins/ Daryl Jacob), who makes his hurdling debut here. The handicap chase at 15.45 looks another very open event and we have decided on an each-way bet on outsider Gee Dee Nen (Gary and Jamie Moore). He has been well beaten on his recent starts, but likes this track- where he has already won on the flat and over hurdles. We expect David Pipe to win the last 2 races with Swing Bill (Tom Bellamy) at 16.20 and Decoy (Conor O´Farrell) at 16.55; both won at Cheltenham´s big meeting a week ago and follow up here under the same jockeys.

Ascot - betting forecast:
1. Race: Simonsig - Western King - Bobcatbilly
2. Race: Solix - Duke Of Lucca - No Secrets
3. Race: Broadbackbob - Ted Spread - Cinders And Ashes
4. Race: Restezen D`Armor - Balzaccio - Court In Session
5. Race: Swing Bill - Vincitore - Stoney`S Treasure
6. Race: Decoy - Rajnagan - Pantxoa

4 N.H. meetings today

4 jumps meetings today (plus a very poor all-weather card this evening at Kempton), and the most valuable race in the U.K. is the handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 15.20 CET at Market Rasen. This looks very open and Daldini (Sue Smith/ Henry Oliver), put up 4 lbs for running second at Haydock last time, would be our selection, except for the fact that he would probably prefer much softer ground. Babysitter (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) won here in April, but was pulled up on his only start since, so we have decided to tip the consistent North Island, who has twice won over this CD. The beginners chase over the same trip at 14.50 is also interesting. McMurrough (Malcolm Jefferson( Harry Haynes) would have a definite chance on his old hurdling form, but has been off the track for 18 months. Moonlight Drive (John Quinn/ McCoy) has not run since being pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival and obviously this opposition is nowhere near as strong. Storming Gale (Donaald McCain/ Brian Harding) has also been off since the spring, so the one with the fewest questions to answer is Carpincho (Sarah Humphrey/ Aidan Coleman), a well-beaten fifth in a decent race at Chepstow last month.

Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow at Wincanton, his local track, but today he only has 3 runners - and they are all in the same race. No Loose Change (Noel Fehily), Oscarslad /Ryan Mahon) and Rolling Aces (Nick Scholfield), all Irish point-to-point winners last time, are his runners in the novice hurdle at 15.10, and frankly it is impossible for an outsider to know which is the best of them. A better bet could be course specialist Heir to Be (Michael Blake/ Scholfield) in the opening handicap hurdle at 14.05.

Nicholls also has a possible winner at Hereford in Doeslessthanme (Daryl Jacob), who has top-weight in the handicap chase at 15.30 at Hereford. This ex-Howard Johnson runner was an easy winner on his only start for his new stable, but has been hit quite hard by the handicapper for that success, so is no certainty. Most of the other top jockeys are at the other meetings, so it is interesting to see Robert Thornton here and he can land a double for Alan King with Reyamour at 14.30 and Way Back When half an hour later.

There are the usual large fields at the Irish meeting at Thurles, but only 5 turn out for the novice hurdle at 15.45, which features the best horse in action at any of today´s meetings - the unbeaten Ipsos du Berlais (Noel Meade/ Davy Russell) . He was a very easy winner on his hurdles debut a fortnight ago at Down Royal and it will be a surprise if he is beaten today.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

2 all-weather meetings today

The best races at Lingfield this afternoon are the 2 divisions of the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.20 and 15.50, both very Tpen affairs with 12 runners apiece. In the first division we expect the two top-weights Seek the Fair Land (James Boyle/ Eddie Ahern) and Santefisio (Peter Makin/ William Buick), to play a leading role, while Amitola (David Barron/ Jamie Spencer) is our choice for the later event.

We are always on the lookout for German-breds and our eye has been caught by Querido (Patrick Butler/ Robert Lucey-Butler) in the mile handicap at 14.50. The Acatenango gelding has an excellent pedigree, and is running here off the lowly mark of 51. Of course that is the result of his terrible form, but he has run several good races at Wolverhampton which is quite similar to Lingfield, where he is running for the first time.

At Kempton this evening, Estonia (Michael Squance/ Adam Kirby), who showed improved form to win over this CD a fortnight ago and is now only 3 lbs higher, can follow up in the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.40. The conditions race over 7 furlongs, the last race of the day at 20.10, was won last year by Andrew Balding, and he can take it again this time with Katakosi (William Buick - one of several jockeys riding at both meetings).

3 N.H.meetings today

3 more low level jumps meetings today, but at least there are some bigger fields, especially at Warwick. However only 3 run in the 4yo chase at 15.30 CET, although the winner is still difficult to find. Perhaps Tornade d´Estruval (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler), a filly by Network and getting weight from the other two, can succeed here. Paul Nicholls also has possibilities in this race, but we think he has better prospects with The Pretender (Daryl Jacob) at 16.00. Henrietta Knight had a bad season in 2010-11 but things look brighter this time; her Loch Ba (Dominic Elsworth) was undeniably lucky to win last time - when the leader fell at the last - but can score again in the novices handicap chase at 15.30.

Donald McCain usually does well at Hexham, and it would not be a surprise to see him take the first two races there today with Chester Lad (Brian Harding) at 14.10 and Kings Grace (NAP) (Timmy Murphy) at 14.40. With the Ferdy Murphy stable now coming back into form, we also like Domoly (Graham Lee), raised 5 lb for winning over this CD 12 days ago, at 16.10.

There is also competitive racing at Fairyhouse in Ireland nad Ruby Walsh looks the man to follow. He has several very promising rides, including his father´s Rossvoss in the 3yo hurdle at 13.55, and Ceol Rua at 14.55 and Sous les Cieux an hour later, both for Willie Mullins. We also hope to see German-bred Der Spieler (JG Coogan/ Barry Cash) come back to form in the 2 mile hurdle race at 14.25.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

3 dreadful cards today

Tuesday is often the poorest day of the week in terms of quality racing, and this is certainly the case today, with 3 very bad meetings. The going is on the firm side at the two N.H. tracks, Fakenham and Folkestone, and the fields are very small in addition to being very low class. The field for the maiden hurdle at 14.30 CET at Folkestone includes 3 bumper winners; although there is no way to compare the form, we prefer Ballyclough (Jonjo O Neill/ Tony McCoy) to Tony Dinozzo (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass). In the next race, Henderson and McCoy team up with Bears Affair, winner of 3 bumpers, and if he jumps round safely, this one can hardly fail to beat two moderate opponents. Absolute Shambles (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) won 3 races over hurdles in the summer, and he is another one who should win of he gets round safely on his chase debut at 16.30.

At Folkestone, there are 3 last-time-out winners in the noice chase at 15.40, including Henderson´s Larks Lad (Andrew Tinkler), who "won" walkover last week, but we prefer No Rules (Mark Tompkins/ Mattie Batchelor), who gets weight from them all. Tompkins and Batchelor also have a chance with the debutant Cotton Grass in the 3yo hurdle half an hour earlier. We don´t like backing 3yo´s against older horses over jumps, but Black Dragon (Mark Rimmer/ Matt Crawley) must have a chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.40.

The fields are bigger at the all-weather fixture at Southwell, but the quality just as bad. Our best bet here is Shot in the Dark (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) in the 2yo maiden at 14.50. He is unlikely to pay much, so a better bet might be all-weather specialist Ours (John Harris/ Seb Sanders) in the seller at 15.50; his recent performances, all on turf, have been poor, but he has won 3 times over this CD and has the best rating in this line-up.

Monday, November 14, 2011

4 meetings today

The usual poor quality racing for a Monday today, and in addition there are some very small fields at the two British N.H. meetings, so that betting should be kept to a minimum. Tony McCoy is riding at Leicester where we expect him to land a short-priced double on Nick Gifford´s Christopher Wren at 14.20 CET and Tim Vaughan´s First Fandango at 15.50.

It could be David Pipe´s and Tom Scudamore´s turn to land a double at Plumpton, with Notus de la Tour at 14.30 -although Megastar could be a danger here in receipt of 7 lbs - and Bathwick Brave half an hour later. It is interesting to see an Irish raider in the novices handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.30 - Jim Dreaper´s Shernaz (Richie McGrath); the race is worth ls less than 2000 GBP to the winner, but on assumes the trainer is not just coming to admire the Sussex scenery.

The fields are much bigger at the Irish N.H. meeting at Limerick, but the standard is equally low. The two we like best here are Theleze (Willie Mullins/ Andrew Lynch) in the mares maiden hurdle at 14.10 and The Engineer (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), who makes his jumping debut in the beginners chase at 16.15.

All 8 races on the all-weather at Wolverhampton are class 5 or 6. John Dunlop hardly ever has runners at this low level, but sends Phonic (Eddie Ahern) to contest the 2 mile handicap at 17.10; he is probably the slowest horse in the Dunlop yard, but could still win this. We also like Amazing Blue Sky (Ruth Carr/ Tom Eaves), better handicpped on the all-weather than on turf, at 16.10, and Bavarian Princess (Elaine Burke/ Martin Harley), who showed improvement to win over this CD last time, at 17.40.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Cheltenham: open meeting, third and final day

Cheltenham´s Open Meeting closes today with another fine card. These three days have shown conclusively that six top races are sufficient to guarantee an excellent day´s racing. Today´s main event is the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle over 2 miles at 15.20 CET; although only a handicap, this event has been won repeatedly by horses that have gone on to run well (and even win!) the Champion Hurdle and Philip Hobbs has a good record here, which he obviously hopes to improve, as he saddles 4 runners including the favourite Pateese (Richard Johnson). He won a Sandown handicap with the greatest of ease only 8 days ago, for which he now carries a 5 lbs penalty, while his rating has gone up by 10 lbs, so theoretically he is 5 lbs well in. However it is not a simple as that, and this race looks much more competitive -although we shall be surprised if any of the runners wins the Champion Hurdle!

Moon Dice (Paul Flynn/ Tom Doyle), one of 4 Irish runners, looks a big danger; he has run only twice this year, winning both times, and last time out landed the valuable Galway Hurdle in the summer. He is up in the weights, but looks one to follow. The Betchworth Kid (Alan King/ Jimmy McCarthy), 8th of 23 in the November Handicap a week ago, and Abergavenny, 13th of 33 in the Cesarewitch and unbeaten over hurdles, are useful flat handicappers who also go well over sticks, while Brampour (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) beat several of these last time when winning at Ascot. His penalty is to a large extent cancelled out by the allowance of his talented young rider, Nicholls´ nephew. Another one we like is Olofi (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who was fifth last year (when it was a stronger field) and whose stable is coming back to form. At the likely odds, he is our best each-way bet here.

In both the first two races there are two interesting runners with German pedigrees -Lancetto (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Bellvano (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) in the opening Grade Two novice chase, and West with the Wind (Williams/ Moloney again) and Gauvain (Nick Williams/Noel Fehily) in the Grade Two chase, also over 2 miles, at 14.45. Gauvain actually won this race last year, but all of them have to give weight to two Paul Nicholls hotpots- Al Ferof and Woolcombe Folly respectively, which will not be easy. Both will be ridden by Ruby Walsh (3 winners here yesterday) and Al Ferof in particular is highly regarded and expected to go right to the top.
Nicholls and Walsh also have chances with Rangitoto at 15.55, Polisky at 16.30 and Salubrious in the concluding bumper, but in these races we prefer John Ferguson´s Perpetually (Mick Quinlan), Fingal Bay (Hobbs/ Johnson) and the Mullins family entry respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Al Ferof - Bellvano - Lancetto
2. Race: Woolcombe Folly - Gauvain - West With The Wind
3. Race: Pateese - Moon Dice - A Media Luz
4. Race: Perpetually - Rangitoto - Tenor Nivernais
5. Race: Fingal Bay - African Broadway - Grandads Horse
6. Race: Montbazon - Supreme Carolina - Salubrious

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Rest of Cheltenham

The remaining 5 races are also extremely competitive, and the card opens with the best 3yo hurdle of the season so far. French-breds always seem to do well here, and Nicky Henderson with Ozeta (Tony McCoy) and Paul Nicholls with Hinterland (Ruby Walsh) saddle a runner who scored at Auteuil last time and now make their British debut. The other runners, 3 of them unbeaten, cannot be totally ignored, but we expect one of this pair to win.

The Grade 3 handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles at 14.55 CET is a high class event and the field includes one runner, Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Noel Fehily), who ran in the Gold Cup; he is not without a chance off this rating now. German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint) is a very consistent performer who always runs well at this track. He was an excellent runner-up over hurdles last time, and is possibly not quite as good over fences, but is better handicapped in this sphere. The high-class Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) and well-weighted Promising Anshan (Nicholls/ Walsh) must also be considered.

The listed handicap hurdle at 16.10 and the novice handicap hurdle at 16.40 are two more very tricky handicaps with huge fields. Our 3 against the field ehre are Raslan (Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell), Dorset Square (Willie and Danny Mullins) and Oscargo (Nicholls/ Walsh) at 16.10, and St. Kilians Run (Elliott/ Timmy Murphy), German-bred All the Winds (Sam Lycett/ Tony McCoy) and Shallow Bay (Pipe/ Scudamore) in the later race.

Finally, the smart hurdler Restless Harry /Robin Dickin/ Henry Oliver), who easily defeated Fair Along at Wetherby last time, makes his chase debut at 17.10. If he jumps round safely, he should win, but Viking Blond (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), who has already scored in good style over fences could be a big danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hinterland - Ozeta - Secret Edge
2. Race: Chicago Grey - Promising Anshan - Fair Along
3. Race: Mon Parrain - Wishfull Thinking - The Giant Bolster

4. Race: Oscargo - Cantlow - My Shamwari
5. Race: Edgardo Sol - St Killian`S Run - Cape Dutch
6. Race: Restless Harry - Viking Blond - Saint Are

Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Today´s Cheltenham card is not only the best of the season so far but it is hard to see it topped, except by the Festival itself. All 6 races are fascinating and the cherry on the cake is undoubtedly the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles. With 20 runners this is very open indeed, although the early betting has been concentrated on just two horses - Mon Parrain (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson). The latter has won 7 of his 13 starts and is possibly still improving, but he has a huge weight and will have to be championship class to win off this rating. We are sceptical, and shall therefore oppose him, and also Mon Parrain, who although better weighted, represents no value at all at the likely odds. This ex-French 5yo won on his British debut by 22 lengths and then finished an excellent 2nd of 30 at Aintree, but this looks a much tougher race.

Nicholls also saddles top-weight Poquelin (David Prichard), who is in the race presumebly to keep down the weight for his other runners, and Aerial (Ryan Mahon), one of 9 horses out of the handicap - but none by much - a result. Nicky Henderson is in great form- 8 of his last 12 runners have won- and saddles 2, both with chances. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty partners Dave´s Dream, off for 10 months but in our view very well handicapped, and Andrew Tinkker is on Quantitativeeasing.

Another trainer in top form is David Pipe, who had 3 winners here yesterday, and his Great Endeavour (Timmy Murphy) must be on the short list, even though he was disappointing in this race last year. We also like Irish raider Loosen my Load (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) and northern hope nd German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Dougie Costello), who fell last time when looking a possible winner at Market Rasen. Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this twice in the last 3 years, so his 2 runners, both out of the handicap, must also come into the reckoning, but our 4 against the field are Great Endeavour, Dave´s Dream, Noble Alan and Loosen my Load.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hinterland - Ozeta - Secret Edge
2. Race: Chicago Grey - Promising Anshan - Fair Along
3. Race: Mon Parrain - Wishfull Thinking - The Giant Bolster

4. Race: Oscargo - Cantlow - My Shamwari
5. Race: Edgardo Sol - St Killian`S Run - Cape Dutch
6. Race: Restless Harry - Viking Blond - Saint Are

Cheltenham: open meeting starts today

Cheltenham´ s 3-day Open Meeting, which starts today, is the best fixture of the early part of the N.H. season and today´s card, while not as good as tomorrow´s, still offers 6 highly competitive events with good betting opportunities. The card opens with a handicap chase over 3 miles for amateur riders at 14.10 CET. The lightly-raced Time for Spring (Charlie Longsdon/ Sam Waley-Cohen) is our choice here, although the improving Irish challenger Barel of Laughs (Jim Culloty/ MrJT Carroll) and course pecialist Pigeon Island (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Derek O´Connor) both look dangerous. Then follows a 2 mile handicap chase at 14.45 with numerous Cheltenham specialists and several runners who have been competing in top company, such as Crack Away Jack (Paul Nicholls/ Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), having his first run since leaving Emma Lavelle, and I´msingingtheblues (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who is however on a long losing run. Oh Crick (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) is another on e for the short list, while the German-bred bottom weight Bocciani (Brian Ellison/ Will Kennedy) has won 5 races this year, but has never met such hot opposition.

The cross country race at 15.20 sees the return to his favourite course of Garde Champetre (Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry), an abolute CD specialist who has been first or second in this for the past 3 years. Theoretically he must win this, as he has17 lbs in hand according to official ratings, but we would not be surprised to see another Irish runner Uncle Junior (Willie and Paddy Mullins) make a race of it.The Grade 2 novice hurdle at 15.55 is one of the day´s highlights and features several contenders who will be running at the Festival. Steps to Freedom (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), a smart flat horse who has also won his last 2 hurdles starts, is an obvious candidate, but so is Ericht (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), not seen out since starting fevourite and finishing 6th in the Champion Bumper here, and Prospect Wells (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), one of the many Howard Johnson horses owned by Graham Wylie that have moved to the champion trainer. Our suggestion is Ohio Gold (Colin and Joe Tizzard) each-way in a very tricky event.

Even trickier is the handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys at 16.30 with 24 runners. Our 3 against the field are Enfant de Luxe (Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell),an easy winner at Sandown last week, the German-bred Kayef (Michael Scudamore/ John Kington) and the mare Kelles Bells (Henderson/ David Bass) but almost anything is possible here. Finally the most-eagerly awaited race of the day is the novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 17.05. Zaynar (Nick Williams/ Tony McCoy) was third in the 2010 Champion Hurdle, but his form tailed off afterwards. However he should be in the shake-up but the two principals here are Cue Card (father and son Tizzard) and Grands Crus (Pipe/ Scudamore). Both look destined for high honours, and we just prefer the Pipe runner, who ran badly in France in the summer, but in the U.K. has only ever been beaten by the outstanding Big Bucks in the last 21 months.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

5 meetings today

Plenty of racing today, but mainly of very low quality. The best event is the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.25 CET, but the Irish race has only attracted 4 runners. Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Barry Geraghty) won this last year and is the class act in the field, but has to give away quite a lot of weight. Psycho (Tony Martin/ Ruby Walsh) is next best on ratings.

He is not the most consistent and fell last time, but runs his best races for Ruby, who is 5 from 6 on him. Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) is an improving youngster, but he may not be ready for this, although he is certainly a major prospect. The Grade 3 mares chase, half an hour later, also features the 2010 winner who is attempting to follow up under top weight: Blazing Tempo ( Willie Mullins/ Walsh). However she was well beaten by Kauto Stone last Saturday and we prefer For Bill (Mervyn Winters/ Paul Carberry).

There is jumping in the U.K. at Taunton and Ludlow. At the former meeting we like Dormouse ( Marie King/ Mr.O.Murphy), who was 20-1 shot when winning last week at Warwick,but can now follow up at much shorter odds under a 7 lbs penalty. At Ludlow, the novice chase at 15.30 is the most interesting event and sees the chasing debut of the decent hurdlers Cucumber Run (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) and Cygnet (Donald McCain/ Brian Harding).

There are also two all-weather fixtures today. At Southwell this afternoon Lovelace (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) can win the Claiming Stakes at 14.20. This i a long way down from his Group 2 win at Baden-Baden 3 years ago, but his recent form leaves much to be desired- as does that of his main rival Autumn Blades (Ruth Carr/ Tom Eaves). At Kempton this evening the conditions race over 11 furlong at 19.50 also features two horses that have not visited the winners enclosure for a long time - Irish Flame (Mike de Kock/ Luke Morris) and Treasury Devil (John Gosden/ William Buick); despite their poor recent form, they should outclass this lot.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

2 N.H. and 2 all-weather flat meetings

There are 4 meetings today, two on the flat (all-weather racing at a very low level at Southwell this afternoon and Kempton this evening) and rather better N.H. racing at Exeter and Bangor. Star of the show is undoubtedly Peddlers Cross /Donald McCain/ Timmy Murphy) who makes his chasing debut at 14.40 CET at Bangor. The runner-up in the Champion Hurdle last March only has to jump round safely to defeat his 3 opponents today before we hope going on to much better things. The handicap chase here half an hour later is a more interesting betting event, and German-bred Air Force One (Charlie Mann Noel Fehily) could be a decent each-way bet. The Lando gelding has failed to complete in 5 of his last 6 races, but he has plenty of ability and has been dropped to a very favourable weight.

After a stuttering start to the season, the powerful Paul Nicholls stable has now hit form (6 winners on Saturday!) and looks likely to clean up at Exeter. Nicholls, with jockey Daryl Jacob, can take the two divisions of the novice hurdle at 13.50 and 14.20 with Curtain Razer and Ruben Cotter respectively, both Irish point-to-point winners last time out, as well as the handicap hurdle at 14.50 with ex-Howard Johnson The Knoxs. Our bst

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

3 N.H. meetings today

3 N.H. meetings in the U.K. today, but to be frank, most of the racing on offer is instantly forgettable. The best horse running today is Australia Day (Paul Webber/ Denis O´Regan), who has only 3 opponents in the novice chase at 15.50 CET at Huntingdon. He was a smart hurdler and has already got off the mark in good style over fences.

Megastar (Gary and Jamie Moore), can follow him home; he was third of 3 at Ascot last time, but that was quite a hot race. Also of interest at Huntingdon is Cry of Freedom (John Ferguson/JM Quinlan), who makes his N.H. debut in the novice hurdle at 15.20; he has not run for almost 2 years, but Ferguson, Sheikh Mohammed´s bloodstock adviser, is doing extremely well with his team of hurdlers, mainly Maktoum castoffs, and if he has brought Cry of Freedom back to the smart form he showed at 2, can have another winner now. Ex-German Sommersturm (Barney Curley/ O´Regan) runs in the opening handicap hurdle here at 14.20. He has been out of the money in all 18 starts in the U.K. but certainly has the ability to win this off his present rating.

The main feature at Sedgefield is the novices handicap chase at 15.00. Bhaltair (Donald McCain/ John Kington) is out of the handicap here, but has been very consistent and can beat his mainly our-of-form opponents. Ferdy Murphy has 3 runners in the novice hurdle at 14.30, but the stable has not yet hit form, and we expect Hawk Mountain (John Quinn/ Dougie Costello), a useful flat handicapper, to win on his jumping debut.

Monday, November 07, 2011

3 poor N.H. meetings

Back to very poor sport today, with 3 low level N.H. meetings. The going at both Hereford and Southwell is on the firm side and there are some very small fields as a result. At the latter meeting, the most interesting event could be the claiming hurdle over 3 miles at 15.15 CET, with two German-breds, Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Edmond Lineham) and Kristallo (Peter Bowen/ Sam Twiston-Davies), of whom Kristallo, a son of Lando, is easily preferred. American Art (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) has won his last 4 races, but has to give away a lot of weight, and best in at the weights is American Cricket (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge).

At Hereford, we like another German-bred Double Handful (Venetia Williams /Sam Thomas); he has failed to win yet in 14 races in the U.K. but has run a couple of decent races on the flat this year and is surely capable of running well over this very low mark.

The ground is better at Carlisle, and so is the racing. Even so, form horses are few and faar between. In the handicap chase at 14.55 The Magic Bishop (Malcolm Jefferson/ Dougie Costello) is the only one with good recent form, having won a similar race at Hexham last time. Et Maintenant (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) was well behind then, but is now 9 lbs better off and could make more of a race of it now. The best race is the graduation chase over 3 miles at 15.55.Only 6 runners, they all have some good form to recommend them. However two really stand out, the very consistent Cross Kennan (Jennie Candlish/ Anthony O´Keeffe), who has won of his 19 starts and was only 5 lengths behind Big Bucks in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, and Sarando (Paul Webber/ Wayne Kennedy), beaten only a neck by Saturday´s big Irish winner Quito de la Roche at Aintree´s Grand National meeting. Finally, our idea of the most likely German-bred winner of the day is Soprano (Jim Goldie/ Graham Le e), who has been in great form this summer and autumn, winning 2 races on the flat and 2 over jumps, including at Kelso on Saturday. If he is still in the same form, he should win the handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.30.

Sunday, November 06, 2011

Back to normal

After the excitement of the Breeders Cup, it is back to normal today, with two modest N.H. fixtures in the U.K., but better class racing on offer in Ireland -both at the flat meeting at Leopardstown (the final flat meeting on turf) and over jumps at Cork. Aidan O´Brien seems to have an unending supply of top 2yo´s this year and could take all 3 races for juveniles at Leopardstown.

In the listed race at 16.00 CET he saddles Tibet (Colm O´Donoghue) and Tower Rock (Seamus Heffernan), both maiden winners last time out; and in the two maidens that open the card he has Twirl (Heffernan) at 13.50, and Hail (O´Donoghue) and the debutant Place Vendome (Heffernan) at 14.20 to represent him. Needless to say, all are superbly bred. Dermot Weld has 3 runners in the listed race over 7 furlongs at 14.50, with stable jockey Pat Smullen partnering our selection Northern Rocked; Seeharn (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough), one of only 2 3yo´s in the field, looks the main danger. Weld and Smullen can also take the big betting race here, the 2 miles November Handicap at 17.05, with Hidden Universe; the smart bumper horse and hurdler is running for only the third time on the flat. He gets 15 lbs from last year´s winner What a Charm (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh), also a smart hurdler, and we think that should be enough to swing it.

4 of the 6 runners in the Grade 3 novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at16.20 at Cork met over this CD 3 weeks ago, when De Velira (Jim Morrissey/ Paul Townend) scored by a nose from First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell), while Stephanie Kate (Charlie Swan/ DG Hogan) and Ordinary Man (Willie Burke/ Shay Barry) both fell. The weights favour de Valira to win again. The big betting race here is the Cork Grand National at 15.15, in which leading jumps owner JP McManus holds a strong hand with Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/ MPWalsh) and last year´s winner Streets of Gold (Christy Roche/ Alan Crowe); we just favour the former, noted running on strongly over an inadequate distance last time.

In Wales. we hope to see German-bred Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily) run well in the handicap chase over 2 miles at 15.35 at Ffos Las. He won this race last year and is now extremely well handicapped following some lacklustre efforts since. Another one who has come down in the weights is Raslan (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.10.

Pipe sends his stable jockey to Market Rasen to partner ex-French Kazlian in the 3yo hurdle at 14.15. Scu also has two good rides for David Bridgwater in Wyck Hill at 15.50 and Double Chocolate at 16.25, who has Stagecoach Opal from Sue Smith´s in-form stable to beat.

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Breeders Cup: rest of second day

A race which seems certain to be won by a European is the Breeders Cup Turf over 1 1/2 miles at 21.45 CET. In fact the 5 Europeans in the field of 9 could well take home all the prize-money. Sea Moon (Air Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Midday (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) fly the flag for England, while Aidan O`Brien´s pair Saint Nicholas Abbey, with the trainer´s son Joseph in the saddle, and Await the Dawn (Julien Leparoux) are the Irish hopes, but we expect a French victory here with Sarafina (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire). Despite her Arc flop, she still boasts the most solid form and can give her jockey a huge international double after winning the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

Aidan O´Brien is also double-handed in the Breeders Cup Juvenile over an extended mile on dirt at 22.25. He saddles Crusade (Julien Leparoux) and Daddy Long Legs (Ryan Moore). The jockey bookings suggest that Daddy Long Legs is the main hope, but we are not so sure. Union Rags (Micharl Matz/ Javier Castellano), unbeaten in 3 races, looks best of the Americans.

There are no European runners at all in the 2 sprint races, where we expect Euroears (Bob Baffert/ Rafael Bejarano) at 19.37 and Regally Ready (Steve Asmussen/ Corey Nakatani) at 20.21 to be returned the winners for stables that were also successful here last night. The same 2 trainers could be involved in the finish of the Dirt Mile at 21.01, with Baffert saddling The Factor (Martin Garcia) and Irrefutable (Rafael Bejarano) and Asmussen Wilburn (Julien Leparoux).

There could also be European winners in the first races on the card, the Marathon over 1 3/4 miles at 18.20 and the Juvenile Turf over a mile at 19.02. The former race features the first 3 from last year, but we hope that Meeznah (David Lanigan/ Tom Queally) and Brigantin (Andre Fabre/ Julien Leparoux) can put them in their place, while the latter event can go to Farraaj (Neil Callan).

Friday, November 04, 2011

Breeders Cup: first day

Two excellent days´ racing coming up at Churchill Downs, with over $25 million in prize-money and several of the world´s top racehorses in action. The best racing - and the major European interest - is tomorrow, but today´s card is also very strong and includes 6 Breeders Cup races. We start with the Juvenile Sprint for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs (dirt) at 21.10 CET, with Shumoos (Brian Meehan/ Garrett Gomez) as the only European runner.

Meehan has a good B.C. record, but we cannot imagine Shumoos is good enough to turn over the unbeaten Secret Circle (Bob Baffert/ Rafael Bejarano), who is likely to be one of the hottest favurites of the meeting. There is a much better chance of a British winner in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 21.50; Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick) is our idea of the best European chance today. She has won her last 4 races, including the Prix Marcel Boussac despite hanging badly. Up (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) could also run well, while Somali Lemonade (Michael Matz/ Alex Solis, despite her outside draw, looks best of the Americans.

The Fillies and Mares Sprint over 7 furlongs on dirt follows; this could go to the 3yo Turbulent Descent (Mike Puype/ David Flores), who has won 6 of her 8 starts (including a Grade One at Saratoga last time) and was runner-up in the other two.

The Juvenile Fillies on dirt over 8 1/2 furlongs at 23.10 sees two decent Europeans - Questing (Gosden/ Buick) and Homecoming Queen (O´Brien/ Moore) facing some strong Americans, including 3 that are unbeaten in 3 starts. My Miss Aurelia (Steve Asmussen/ Corey Nakatani), a winner in very fast time at Belmont last time, looks the best of them and is the likeliest winner.

The Filly and Mares Turf over 11 furlongs at 23.50 is the best race of the day and often goes to a runner from this side of the ocean. The unbeaten Nahrain (Roger Varian/ Frankie Dettori) and Announce (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), only separated by a nose in the Prix de l´Opera, should again be fighting out the finish, while we have doubts about Misty for Me (O´Brien/ Moore) over this distance, but the one to beat is surely Stacelita (Chad Brown/ Roman Dominguez). She has a German pedigree, was a top filly in France and is now trained in the USA and is unbeaten in her two starts here, both Grade Ones.

Today´s card ends with the Ladies Classic over 9 furlongs on dirt at half an hour past midnight. For the prize-money this is a relatively poor race, which we expect to go to Plum Pretty, who can complete a double for the Baffert/ Bejarano team.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rothko - Grand Traverse - Privilaged
2. Race: Santiva - Katz My Song - Congo
3. Race: Alma dOro - Gladding - Mister Marti Gras
4. Race: Wine Police - Fast Bullet - Cornpiper
5. Race: Secret Circle - Seeker - Trinniberg
6. Race: Elusive Kate - Somali Lemonade - Stopshoppingmaria
7. Race: Turbulent Descent - Switch - Pomeroys Pistol
8. Race: Candrea - Weemissfrankie - My Miss Aurelia
9. Race: Stacelita - Dubawi Heights - Announce
10. Race: Its Tricky - Royal Delta - Plum Pretty

Thursday, November 03, 2011

Hanagan v de Sousa

Once again the main interest at today´s two flat meetings - on the all-weather at Southwell in the afternoon and at Wolverhampton in the evening - lies in the continuing battle between Paul Hanagan and Silvestre de Sousa for the jockeys championship. Both are riding at both meetings today, and have 3 rides each. Hanagan leads by 8 with only 3 days to go, so it is basically de Sousa´s lat chance to make up the ground.

Some bookmkers have already paid out of Hanagan, but de Sousa appears to have better rides today and we feel that he can still make a race of it. However the are without exception very low grade events, so that form means very little; however we fancy Kinloch Castle at 13.40 CET, Powerful Prince at 15.10, and Coastal Passage an hour later, all ridden by de Sousa at Southwell, and Shieldmaiden at 18.30 and Findhornbay at 19.00 as well as Eyedoro at 21.00 at Wolverhampton; so this could still go down to the wire. Of course a couple of winners for Hanagan would decide the issue; his best chance in our view is Evens and Odds at 20.00 this evening.

The jumps racing in the U.K. is also of little interest, although Western Approaches (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) looks a good thing to win the mares maiden hurdle at 14.20 at Towcester. She is the only runner of the day for her powerful stable.

The Irish meeting at Thurles is better with some large fields and some competitive racing. The listed 2 3/4 mile chase at 14.55 has only 5 runners but they are all useful and this looks the day´s best race. The race conditions favour Cooldine /Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) and he is our selection.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Listed race this evening at Kempton

The listed race over 1 1/2 miles at Kempton´s evening meeting at 19.40 CET, appropriately named the Floodlit Stakes, is the most interesting raace on a dull day for British racing. 6 runners, including 2 Godolphins, Prince Bishop (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Parlour Games (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Paul Hanagan), but neither of them greatly appeals so we shall go with Laheeb (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills).

He has been off since July, and his form early on this season was nothing special, but a return to his smart 2010 form would surely see him home here. Otherwise the main feature of toady´s flat racing is the continued struggle between Hanagan and de Sousa for the jockeys championship. Hanagan leads by 7, and unless de Sousa (just returned from Australia) can make up ground today, the former looks certain to prevail, with only 4 days left. Both of them are riding this afternoon at Nottingham, well as at Kempton, but although they ride in almost very race, winners look difficult and we expect the status quo to be maintained. In our view, Hanagan´s best chances are with Anomaly at 15.00 at Nottingham, and Sarrsar half an hour later, while de Sousa could counter on Smart Steps, also at Nottingham at 16.05.

Over jumps, there are large fields at Chepstow, where at ground is very soft, but tiny fields at Warwick, where it is firm. Ex-German Agapanthus (Barney Curley/ Paul Moloney) is an interesting runner in the handicap hurdle at 14.05 at Warwick. This one-time listed winner on the flat is now on an absurdly low rating, but with runners from this yard, one never knows what to expect.

Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh had a few disappointments at Exeter yesterday, but we expect things to go much better for the duo at Chepstow today, and think that they can win the two maiden hurdles that open the card with Merriam Square and Sullim. The Gossmoor Yank has top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.30 and has been off the track for 2 years, but if anywhere near his old form should be another winner for the team.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter

today´s two flat meetings are modest in the extreme, although there is still some interest in Paul Hanagan´s attempt to retain the jockeys championship; he rides in all 8 races at Redcar and will be hoping to stretch his lead, currently 5, over Silvestre de Sousa, who is on his way back from the Melbourne Cup today. However there is an extremely stong N.H. card at Exeter, featuring at Haldon Gold Cup, a handicap over 2 mile 1 1/2 furlongs at 15.50 CET, which is the best handicap chase over a relatively short distance this side of Christmas. Today´s field is well up to standard and the weights are headed by the extremely consistent Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who has been first or second in his last 10 starts. His victory in th Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here, and he is reopposed by two horses who finished behind behind him then- Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and German-bred Ghizao (Peul Nicholls/ Ruby Waslh), 4th and 5th r espectively. However they both receive weight today so a reversal of that form is by no means out of the question. Irish hope Zaarito (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power), is also not without a chance, but he has not run since December. On balance, we prefer Ghizao, for whom high hopes are held and whose trainer is already in terrific form.

Another interesting race here is the novice chase at 16.20 which sees the chasing debut of the smart hurdlers Menorah (Hobbs/ Johnson) and Sam Winner (Nicholls/ Walsh). On hurdles form, the former is clearly superior - he finished 5th in the Champion Hurdle after starting second favourite- but he has to give weight to the younger horse, which will not be easy.

Altogether it looks as if the Hobbs and Nicholls stables will dominate the whole card, although we are also interested in the German-bred Lovcen (King/ Thornton) in the opening novice hurdle, who has Rocky Creek (Nicholls/ Walsh) to beat. Big Easy (Hobbs/ Johnson) is another German-bred who could run well in the novice hurdle at 15.20.

The two handicaps which close the card look very tricky, but we have a slight fancy for Gunna be a Devil (Jeremy Scott/ Tom O´Brien), who is still a maiden, but whose stable is in great form, in the hurdle race at 17.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rocky Creek - Grand Vision - Allthekingshorses
2. Race: Jump City - Well Regarded - Big Easy
3. Race: Captain Chris - Ghizao - Medermit
4. Race: Menorah - Sam Winner - Shammick Boy
5. Race: Strongbows Legend - Take Over Sivola - In The Zone
6. Race: Ravastree - Domos Boy - Perkin Warbeck