Thursday, November 24, 2011

Hennessy meeting starts today

There are 5 meetings today, but easily the best racing comes from Newbury, where the first day of the Hennessy meeting is scheduled. Obviously the strongest card will be on Saturday, but today´s programme is also very decent and the highlight is the Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 15.10 CET. Only 4 runners here, but they are all useful and Grands Crus (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is the clear favourite. He was the second best hurdler last year over this trip, and Big Bucks the only horse to have defeated him in the U.K. for almost two years. He began his chasing career with an easy win at Cheltenham, and it will be a big disappointment if he does not score again today. Sonofvic (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) has won his last 3 races and is also expected to go places over fences; however his form cannot compare with that of Grands Crus and he is also trying this trip for the first time.

Also at Newbury, we hope that Lidar (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) can take the novice handicap chase at 14.00 - another race with only 4 runners while German-bred Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) has an each-way chnc in the novo s handoap hurdle at 14.35. The Monsun gelding has bottom weight here and has finished runner-up on his last two outings; however this is a much tougher race. Buffalo Bob (Kim Bailey/ Charles Greene) won the handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles and goes for the double at 15.45. However his form since is very poor, so we prefer Zarrafakt, who was pulled-up in this last year, but who always runs his best race first time out and after a long break, which is the case today.

There are several German-breds running today, but by far the most interesting is Val Mondo (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who goes for the novice hurdle that opens the card at 13.20 at Uttoxeter. He is making his N.H. debut here, and with 18 runners engaged - quite a few of them highly regarded - he is no good thing, especially as the stable is not in great form. But he was easily the best of these on the flat, winning the German St. Leger lest year and running fifth to Lucas Cranach in the Hansa-Preis in June of this year. Mangonel (Jim Best/ Colin Bolger) looks the best bet here. She has won twice in the past ten days and can complete a quick hat-trick at 15.00, as she is still very well handicapped.

Although Paul Nicholls has some fancied runners today, Ruby Walsh is riding at Thurles in Irland for Willie Mullins, and can win on Bishopsfurze at 13.35, Apt Approach at 14.05 and Zaidpour in the hurdle race at 15.40. Zaidpour, one of the top novices last year and now has to defeat Oscar Time (MM Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen), runner-up last year not only in this but also in the Grand National.

Newbury - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tempest River - Kentford Grey Lady - Arctic Actress
2. Race: The Cockney Mackem - Celtus - Gandalfe
3. Race: Sentimentaljourney - Beside The Fire - Di Kaprio
4. Race: Grands Crus - Sonofvic - Viking Blond
5. Race: That`Lldoboy - Rackham Lerouge - Vino Griego
6. Race: Empire Levant - Right Stuff - Dubai Crest
7. Race: Captain Kelly - Barenger - Sammyman