Breeders Cup: first day

Two excellent days´ racing coming up at Churchill Downs, with over $25 million in prize-money and several of the world´s top racehorses in action. The best racing - and the major European interest - is tomorrow, but today´s card is also very strong and includes 6 Breeders Cup races. We start with the Juvenile Sprint for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs (dirt) at 21.10 CET, with Shumoos (Brian Meehan/ Garrett Gomez) as the only European runner.

Meehan has a good B.C. record, but we cannot imagine Shumoos is good enough to turn over the unbeaten Secret Circle (Bob Baffert/ Rafael Bejarano), who is likely to be one of the hottest favurites of the meeting. There is a much better chance of a British winner in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 21.50; Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick) is our idea of the best European chance today. She has won her last 4 races, including the Prix Marcel Boussac despite hanging badly. Up (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) could also run well, while Somali Lemonade (Michael Matz/ Alex Solis, despite her outside draw, looks best of the Americans.

The Fillies and Mares Sprint over 7 furlongs on dirt follows; this could go to the 3yo Turbulent Descent (Mike Puype/ David Flores), who has won 6 of her 8 starts (including a Grade One at Saratoga last time) and was runner-up in the other two.

The Juvenile Fillies on dirt over 8 1/2 furlongs at 23.10 sees two decent Europeans - Questing (Gosden/ Buick) and Homecoming Queen (O´Brien/ Moore) facing some strong Americans, including 3 that are unbeaten in 3 starts. My Miss Aurelia (Steve Asmussen/ Corey Nakatani), a winner in very fast time at Belmont last time, looks the best of them and is the likeliest winner.

The Filly and Mares Turf over 11 furlongs at 23.50 is the best race of the day and often goes to a runner from this side of the ocean. The unbeaten Nahrain (Roger Varian/ Frankie Dettori) and Announce (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), only separated by a nose in the Prix de l´Opera, should again be fighting out the finish, while we have doubts about Misty for Me (O´Brien/ Moore) over this distance, but the one to beat is surely Stacelita (Chad Brown/ Roman Dominguez). She has a German pedigree, was a top filly in France and is now trained in the USA and is unbeaten in her two starts here, both Grade Ones.

Today´s card ends with the Ladies Classic over 9 furlongs on dirt at half an hour past midnight. For the prize-money this is a relatively poor race, which we expect to go to Plum Pretty, who can complete a double for the Baffert/ Bejarano team.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rothko - Grand Traverse - Privilaged
2. Race: Santiva - Katz My Song - Congo
3. Race: Alma dOro - Gladding - Mister Marti Gras
4. Race: Wine Police - Fast Bullet - Cornpiper
5. Race: Secret Circle - Seeker - Trinniberg
6. Race: Elusive Kate - Somali Lemonade - Stopshoppingmaria
7. Race: Turbulent Descent - Switch - Pomeroys Pistol
8. Race: Candrea - Weemissfrankie - My Miss Aurelia
9. Race: Stacelita - Dubawi Heights - Announce
10. Race: Its Tricky - Royal Delta - Plum Pretty