Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter

today´s two flat meetings are modest in the extreme, although there is still some interest in Paul Hanagan´s attempt to retain the jockeys championship; he rides in all 8 races at Redcar and will be hoping to stretch his lead, currently 5, over Silvestre de Sousa, who is on his way back from the Melbourne Cup today. However there is an extremely stong N.H. card at Exeter, featuring at Haldon Gold Cup, a handicap over 2 mile 1 1/2 furlongs at 15.50 CET, which is the best handicap chase over a relatively short distance this side of Christmas. Today´s field is well up to standard and the weights are headed by the extremely consistent Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who has been first or second in his last 10 starts. His victory in th Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here, and he is reopposed by two horses who finished behind behind him then- Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and German-bred Ghizao (Peul Nicholls/ Ruby Waslh), 4th and 5th r espectively. However they both receive weight today so a reversal of that form is by no means out of the question. Irish hope Zaarito (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power), is also not without a chance, but he has not run since December. On balance, we prefer Ghizao, for whom high hopes are held and whose trainer is already in terrific form.

Another interesting race here is the novice chase at 16.20 which sees the chasing debut of the smart hurdlers Menorah (Hobbs/ Johnson) and Sam Winner (Nicholls/ Walsh). On hurdles form, the former is clearly superior - he finished 5th in the Champion Hurdle after starting second favourite- but he has to give weight to the younger horse, which will not be easy.

Altogether it looks as if the Hobbs and Nicholls stables will dominate the whole card, although we are also interested in the German-bred Lovcen (King/ Thornton) in the opening novice hurdle, who has Rocky Creek (Nicholls/ Walsh) to beat. Big Easy (Hobbs/ Johnson) is another German-bred who could run well in the novice hurdle at 15.20.

The two handicaps which close the card look very tricky, but we have a slight fancy for Gunna be a Devil (Jeremy Scott/ Tom O´Brien), who is still a maiden, but whose stable is in great form, in the hurdle race at 17.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rocky Creek - Grand Vision - Allthekingshorses
2. Race: Jump City - Well Regarded - Big Easy
3. Race: Captain Chris - Ghizao - Medermit
4. Race: Menorah - Sam Winner - Shammick Boy
5. Race: Strongbows Legend - Take Over Sivola - In The Zone
6. Race: Ravastree - Domos Boy - Perkin Warbeck