Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Today´s Cheltenham card is not only the best of the season so far but it is hard to see it topped, except by the Festival itself. All 6 races are fascinating and the cherry on the cake is undoubtedly the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles. With 20 runners this is very open indeed, although the early betting has been concentrated on just two horses - Mon Parrain (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson). The latter has won 7 of his 13 starts and is possibly still improving, but he has a huge weight and will have to be championship class to win off this rating. We are sceptical, and shall therefore oppose him, and also Mon Parrain, who although better weighted, represents no value at all at the likely odds. This ex-French 5yo won on his British debut by 22 lengths and then finished an excellent 2nd of 30 at Aintree, but this looks a much tougher race.

Nicholls also saddles top-weight Poquelin (David Prichard), who is in the race presumebly to keep down the weight for his other runners, and Aerial (Ryan Mahon), one of 9 horses out of the handicap - but none by much - a result. Nicky Henderson is in great form- 8 of his last 12 runners have won- and saddles 2, both with chances. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty partners Dave´s Dream, off for 10 months but in our view very well handicapped, and Andrew Tinkker is on Quantitativeeasing.

Another trainer in top form is David Pipe, who had 3 winners here yesterday, and his Great Endeavour (Timmy Murphy) must be on the short list, even though he was disappointing in this race last year. We also like Irish raider Loosen my Load (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) and northern hope nd German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Dougie Costello), who fell last time when looking a possible winner at Market Rasen. Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this twice in the last 3 years, so his 2 runners, both out of the handicap, must also come into the reckoning, but our 4 against the field are Great Endeavour, Dave´s Dream, Noble Alan and Loosen my Load.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hinterland - Ozeta - Secret Edge
2. Race: Chicago Grey - Promising Anshan - Fair Along
3. Race: Mon Parrain - Wishfull Thinking - The Giant Bolster
4. Race: Oscargo - Cantlow - My Shamwari
5. Race: Edgardo Sol - St Killian`S Run - Cape Dutch
6. Race: Restless Harry - Viking Blond - Saint Are