Saturday, November 26, 2011

rest of today´s racing

the other big race at Newbury is the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle at 15.35 CET, which looks at the mercy of Big Buck´s (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh). This brilliant 8yo, officially rated the best hurdler in Britain and Ireland, despite running over the unfashionable distance of 3 miles, has not been defeated since unseating his rider the last in the Hennessy here 3 years ago. He was switched back to hurdles after that and has won all his 12 races since, including this event twice (in fact he is 4 from 4 over CD) and the Cheltnham race 3 times. Barring accidents, he cannot lose today, but he will be at an unbackable price. Sparky May (Kieren Burke/ Timmy Murphy) and Duc de Regniere (Tom Symonds/ Denis O´Regan), both having their first run for a new trainer, can chase him home.
Nicholls look set for another profitable Saturday and we expect him also to take the handicap hurdle at 15.05, where he has 2 runners, top-weight Rock on Ruby (Walsh) and Empire Levant (Harry Derham), who was an easy winner over this CD on Thursday and can go in again. Bottom-weight Dream Function (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) looks the main danger. Nicholls and Walsh can also win the novice hurdle at 13.55 with Prospect Wells, who looks a very nice prospect, but he may have hie work cut out to concede 5lbs to All the Aces (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Graghty), who is making his debut over sticks but was group class on the flat.
Main interest otherwise will be centred on trainer Donald McCain and his stable jockey Jason Maguire, who should win the opener Bangor at 13.10 with the smart Peddlers Cross. Then they get in the helicopter and it´s off to Newcastle and Overturn in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at 15.20. Even though there are only 5 runners here, and 2 of them no-hopers, this is still a fascinating contest. Overturn, a strong front-runner and equally at home over hurdles and on the flat, was arguably lucky to win at Ascot last week, but is very smart. He now faces Binocular (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) and Celestial Hero (Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), the Champion Hurdle hopes of the top two .NH. stables. Binocular in fact won the Cheltenham race in 2010, but has been well put in his place by Hurricane Fly since. He has also twice been beaten at odds-on in the Fighting Fifth. Despite that, we expect him to win today, although this is more a race to watch than to bet on.

Betting forecast Bangor:
1. Race: Peddlers Cross - Minella Class - Brother Bob
2. Race: Titeuf de Tierce - Coolbeg - Laneguy
3. Race: Quotica De Poyans - Oscar Prairie - Chapolimoss
4. Race: Sydney Paget - Grove Pride - Arbor Supreme
5. Race: Peckhamecho - The Weatherman - Pampanito
6. Race: Johns Spirit - Banyan Tree - Houston Dynimo
7. Race: Brave Alliance - Scholastica - Fortuna Rose