Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Southwell (N.H.) and Lingfield (a.w.)

With Ayr off, there are now only 2 very modest meetings in the U.K. today. Southwell stages N.H. racing, with some small fields and several likely odds-on favourites. Donald McCain and Jason Maguire are in tremendous form and can land a double with Lively Baron in the novices chase at 13.50 CET and Golden Call in the novice hurdle half an hour later. Mister Dillon (Nicky Henderson/ RJ Killortan) is another probable short-priced winner at 16.30. John Ferguson, Sheikh Mohammed´s bloodstock adviser, have an amazing strike rate with ex-Maktoum horses running over hurdles and can take the maiden hurdle at 14.55 with debutant Commemorate (Paul Moloney), who was listed class on the flat. The fields are bigger at Lingfield but the betting opportunities equally poor. Easily the best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.50, but this looks very tricky. Top-weight Secret Witness (Ron Harris/ Joe Fanning) was just caught in a listed race over this CD 17 days ago, with Cochabamba (Ron Tea l/ John Fahy) fourth, Five Star Junior (Linda Stubbs/ James Sullivan) seventh, and Norville (David Evans/ Matthew Cosham) 11th of 12. Secret Witness could of course go one better in this lower grade, but it was a very tight finish and he has been raised 6 lbs for that second place. There are plenty of possibilities here and we suggest, but without much confidence, Cochabamba.