Tuesday, November 15, 2011

3 dreadful cards today

Tuesday is often the poorest day of the week in terms of quality racing, and this is certainly the case today, with 3 very bad meetings. The going is on the firm side at the two N.H. tracks, Fakenham and Folkestone, and the fields are very small in addition to being very low class. The field for the maiden hurdle at 14.30 CET at Folkestone includes 3 bumper winners; although there is no way to compare the form, we prefer Ballyclough (Jonjo O Neill/ Tony McCoy) to Tony Dinozzo (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass). In the next race, Henderson and McCoy team up with Bears Affair, winner of 3 bumpers, and if he jumps round safely, this one can hardly fail to beat two moderate opponents. Absolute Shambles (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) won 3 races over hurdles in the summer, and he is another one who should win of he gets round safely on his chase debut at 16.30.

At Folkestone, there are 3 last-time-out winners in the noice chase at 15.40, including Henderson´s Larks Lad (Andrew Tinkler), who "won" walkover last week, but we prefer No Rules (Mark Tompkins/ Mattie Batchelor), who gets weight from them all. Tompkins and Batchelor also have a chance with the debutant Cotton Grass in the 3yo hurdle half an hour earlier. We don´t like backing 3yo´s against older horses over jumps, but Black Dragon (Mark Rimmer/ Matt Crawley) must have a chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.40.

The fields are bigger at the all-weather fixture at Southwell, but the quality just as bad. Our best bet here is Shot in the Dark (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) in the 2yo maiden at 14.50. He is unlikely to pay much, so a better bet might be all-weather specialist Ours (John Harris/ Seb Sanders) in the seller at 15.50; his recent performances, all on turf, have been poor, but he has won 3 times over this CD and has the best rating in this line-up.