Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Punchestown and Lingfield

Punchestown now stages the only jumps racing of the day and we expect the purple patch currently being enjoyed by Gigginstown House and their retained jockey Bryan Cooper to continue. They could well land a treble with Willie Mullins´ As de Ferbet in the beginners chase at 13.45 CET, Tony Martin´s Bog Warrior in the main event, a conditions race over hurdles at 14.45 and French import Petite Parisienne in the 3yo hurdle half an hour later. Bog Warrior appeals as the best bet of the day; although a 10yo he is relatively lighlty raced and has won 9 of his 16 starts including this race in 2012.. Stable companion Blackmail (Barry Geraghty) could be a problem but he has been of the track for 16 months and has to concede a lot of weight, so the consistent mare Jennies Jewel (JP Fahey/ IJ McCarthy) could be the main danger.

The all-weather card at Lingfield is very low grade and the "best" race is the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.40. We expect the 3yo´s to come out on top here. Shyron (George Margarspon/ Martin Lane) has the best form, but he has plenty of weight and has never run here, so we prefer the lightly-raced Evening Attire (W Stone/ George Baker) and Zman Awal (James Fanshawe/ Hayley Turner). The former ran well over this CD last time out, while the latter won his maiden here back in May; Zman Awal seems to be very reasonably handicapped and is our selection.
All Northern Hemisphere thoroughbreds celebrate their birthday tomorrow - we wish them a very Happy Birthday and to you, dear readers, a very Happy New Year!

Betting forecast Punchestown:
1. Race: The Bosses Cousin - As De Ferbet - The Job Is Right
2. Race: Federici - Heavenly Brook - The Parishioner
3. Race: Bog Warrior - Blackmail - Daneking
4. Race: Zafayan - Petite Parisienne - Hannah`s Magic
5. Race: Gallant Oscar - Followmeuptocarlow - Killeena House
6. Race: Indian Rupee - Theoystercatcher - Gothen Niece
7. Race: Bonny Kate - Dark Sunshine - Dandad`s Lucy

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Taunton and Lingfield

the long run of Grade One races has come to an end, but we still have quite a decent card today at Taunton, featuring a listed mares novice hurdle at 16.00 CET. We expect the two "Taras" to have this between them. Tara Mist (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall) was a smart bumper horse who won her only hurdle race so far despite jumping badly. She can be expected to improve on that, but needs to if she is to beat Tara Point (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), who ran an excellent race last time when a close third at Sandown to a hurdler who was beaten a neck in a Grade One yesterday. A repeat of that form should certainly be good enough and she can contribute to a successful afternoon for the Nicholls/ Sam T-D Team, who can also take the novice hurdle at 15.00 with German-bred Amanto (penalised Aso the obvious danger here) and the handicap chase at 16.30 with Howlongisafoot, runner-up at Sandown last time and meeting lesser opposition here.

Best race on a poor card at LIngfield´s all-weather track is the mile conditions race at 15.20. With only 5 runners this is however not a good betting race. Beach Bar (Will Knight/ Adam Kirby) is the likely favourite, but he has not run since June and we prefer those with more recent form. Brocklebank (Simon Dow/ Tomas Harrington) won at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day, but we would not be surprised to see Rebellious Guoest (George Margarson/ George Baker), who finished last then, turn the tables this time; he is much better off at the weighhts and the furlong shorter distance should also suit him more.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Anastazia - Mo Henry - Arabian Bride
2. Race: Bobby Benton - Sixties Love - Lynngale
3. Race: Shorana - Ocean Boulevard - Salmon Sushi
4. Race: Ambella - Dream And Hope - Rocky`S Pride
5. Race: Tournament - Brocklebank - Beach Bar
6. Race: Chauvelin - Deinonychus - Zinnobar
7. Race: Moulin Rouge - Youm Jamil - Top Set
8. Race: Rock Charm - Sabre Rock - Rezwaan

Haydock abandoned, Taunton ON!

today´s meeting at Haydock has already been abandoned because of frost and snow, while there will be an inspection later at Taunton for the same reason. The only other fixture today is an all-weather card at Lingfield. Temperatures are now expected to rise slowly and Cheltenham seem confident that they will have no problems for their big New Years Day meeting on Thursday.
later: Taunton gets green light!

Monday, December 29, 2014

Grade One races at Newbury and Leopardstown

The best race of the day is the Ryanair Hurdle at 14.25 CET at Leopardstown in which the two outstanding hurdlers Hurricane Fly (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ Tony McCoy) are set to clash for the sixth time. The Fly has won 20 Grade One races - an all-time record- and is unbeaten in 8 starts here, including this race which he has won 3 times and in which he defeated Jezki last year. He also defeated Jezki last time they met, but the latter won the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and again at Punchestown. Hurricane Fly is now rising 11 but seems as good as ever and will also find the ground in his favour, but we fancy the younger horse this time.There are 5 more runners in the field, but it will be a shock if any of them can trouble the big two.
There are also 7 runners in the Grade One novice chase over 3 miles at 16.05, but this looks much more open. Gigginstown won both top races here yesterday and have another strong hand here with Don Poli (Mullins/ Bryan Cooper) and Very Wood (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) engaged. Although the stable jockey is on the former, and he is preferred in the betting, we perversely go with Very Wood, as he is one of the very few guaranteed to stay the distance in these conditions.
Main event at Newbury is the Challow Novice Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10 with some smart prospects entered. Vyta du Roc (Nicky Hemnxerson/ Barry Geraghty) has won his last 4 races, but the form does not read as well as that of Blaklion (Nigel T-D/ Ryan Hatch), who has won 5 of his 6 races and his only defeat came at Cheltenham when run out of it by Parlour Games (John Ferguson/ Noel Fehily). That one reopposes on 3 lbs worse terms, but he won with quite a bit in hand and we hope that the Monsun gelding can score again.

Betting forecast Leopardstown:
1. Race: On The Shannon - Down Under - Pollywollydoodle
2. Race: Fort Smith - Royal Caviar - Mike Mccann
3. Race: Hurricane Fly - Jezki - Tiger Roll
4. Race: Peoples Park - Lord Scoundrel - A Sizing Network
5. Race: Analifet - Princess Leya - Carrigmoorna Rock
6. Race: Don Poli - Mala Beach - The Tullow Tank
7. Race: Bellshill - Altiepix - Solatentif

Doncaster, Kelso and Southwell abandoned

snow and frost are threatening to disrupt today´s racing, including the Grade One meetings at Newbury and Leopardstown. Doncaster was already called off yesterday and Kelso as well as the all-weather meeting at Southwell early this morning, Newbury, Limerick and Leopardstown are to go ahead, but conditions at the Irish meetings will be unpleasant.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Lexus Chase and Christmas Hurdle

By far the best racing today comes from Ireland where Leopardstown stages two Grade One races which should have a big bearing on the Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival (only 12 weeks away!)

The Lexus Chase at 15.55 CET follows the King George VI two days ago as the main trial for the Gold Cup and the field includes two winners of that race- last season´s hero Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty/ Davy Russell) and 2013 winner Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who also won last year´s Lexus from First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Brian O´Connell), with Lord Windermere only 7th. However the latter has clearly improved since then, and although he was a lucky winner at Cheltenham, we were very taken with the way he ran on his seasonal debut and make him our selection now. He was behind Boston Bob (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), but over this longer trip we expect him to reverse that form. Bobs Worth has not run since Cheltenham, which must be a big disadvantage, although he is still the top-rated runner here. On His Own (Mullins/ Paul Townend) was the unlucky horse in the Gold Cup, but his runs since have not been that great and Walsh prefers Boston Bob. British raiders have a good record here and Paul Nicholls, who has won this race 3 times, sends over Sam Winner (Sam T-D), winner of both his races this season, but against lesser opposition. Home Farm (Henry de Bromhead/ David Casey) also needs to improve after an easy win last time, but his stable had a big double yesterday and he is our best outsider, but we hope that Lord Windermere shows today that he is a true champion.

There is also a very competitive field for the Christmas Hurdle, also over 3 miles, at 14.50 and we shall certainly see several of these runners in action in Cheltenham´s World Hurdle, in which At Fishers Cross (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) finished a good third last March, the best form on offer here. Zaidpour (Mullins/ Walsh) won this race last year and was runner-up the previous year to Monksland (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), this this edition looks much stronger, and the latter has not run since that victory, while Zaidpour fell last time in the Hatton Grace won by Lieutenant Colonel (Sandra Hughes/ Bryan Cooper), with Jetson (Jessica Harrington/ Russell) second, who had earlier won the equivalent race at the Punchestown Festival. Almlost any of these could win today and we give slight preference to Lieutenant Colonel; it would certainly be a very popular victory if he wins after the recent death of Dessie Hughes, whose daughter now trains him.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Welsh National today

Following yesterday´s rain, sleet and snow, the going will be very soft and testing everywhere, especially at Chepstow where the big betting race of the day is the Welsh Grand National over a gruelling 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.35 CET. Topweight Shotgun Paddy (Emma Lavelle/ Leighton Aspell) has been the favourite for this ever since betting opened, but this will be really tough for the horses with big weights and we prefer to look lower down. This is a race for specialists and we hope the find the winner from last year´s race which was won by Mountainous (Richard Lee/ Paul Moloney) from Hawke´s Point (Paul Nicholls/ Sean Bowen) with One In a Milan (Evan Williams/ Conor Ring) 4th and Amigo (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) seventh; all have clearly been aimed at the race again and at the revised weights we just prefer the Nicholls runner with this good young claimer aboard. Obviously Monbeg Dude (Michael and Tom Scudamore), who won 2 years ago, must also be considered, but he is not so well handicapped now. Main supporting feature is the 3yo hurdle at 14.55, which sees some of the better juveniles, including German-bred Golden Doyen (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), who won well at Cheltenham last time, Karezak (Alan King/ Aidan Coleman), who just beat him here in October, and Old Guard (Nicholls/ Sam T-D) who beat Karezak last time but is worse off now.

Talking of 3yo hurdlers there is also an interesting race which opens the card at Kempton at 13.40. A number of good German 3yo´s have been sold to go hurdling and one of them is Agenor (Jamie Snowden( Conor Shoemark), last seen winning the big sales race at the Hamburg Derby meeting. This is a pretty tough race to start off with, but we hope he runs well.

The best racing of the day is in Ireland, where there are two Grade One races at Leopardstown. Nichols Canyon (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) can continue the stable´s good run in the novice hurdle at 14.50, while AP McCoy flies over from England to partner Alan King´s Uxizandre in the Dial-a-Bet Chase half an hour earlier. Silver Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Davy Russell), the Cheltenhem bumper winner last March, makes his hurdling debut here at 13.50 and it will be a big surprise if he cannot win at the first time of asking.

Friday, December 26, 2014

Huge Boxing Day programme

The weather may be a bit miserable, but there is no danger to any of today´s 12 Boxing Day fixtures, which are headed by a wonderful card at Kempton with 3 Grade One races and the current ante-post favourites for both the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup in action. The King George VI Chase over 3 miles at 16.10 CET is the best race of the day and this classic event - won 5 times by Kauto Star for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh and previously by such stars as Desert Orchid- has attracted its strongest field in years, including the first 4 from last year: Silviniaco Conti (Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), Cue Card (Colin Tizzard/ Daryl Jacob) (also 5th the previous year), Al Ferof (Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) as well as Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), who was pulled up. Cheltenham favourite Silviniaco Conti also won the Betfair Chase this year, beating Menorah, Dynaste and Cue Card, and he is the logical winner here, although if the rain stays away, we expect Cue Card to be a big danger this time. The fly in the ointment could be Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). A top novice hurdler and Cheltenham winner, he is also going the right way over fences and was just touched off in the Arkle this year. The problem here is that he has never run beyond 2 1/2 miles; he is bred to stay and connections obviously expect him to, but we would rather see it first and he is taking on real specialists here.

Mullins´ and Walsh´s big hope today is clearly Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at 15.35. He is unbeaten in 7 starts, was last season´s top novice and is expected to go right to the top. He is clear favourite for Cheltenham and if he wins today, will start at a very short price there. He will also be at a ridiculous price today and we would rather oppose him. We have always liked German-bred Irving (Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and think we would have beaten Purple Bay (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy) at Wincanton but for falling at the last. Nicky Henderson has won this race repeatedly and now saddles Sign of a Victory (Barry Geraghty), who is up in grade after winning his last 3 races but looks well worth a try in this company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arzal - Zip Top - Bringithomeminty
2. Race: Katgary - Stellar Notion - Generous Ransom
3. Race: Virak - Sausalito Sunrise - Carraig Mor
4. Race: Irving - Sign Of A Victory - Faugheen
5. Race: Al Ferof - Menorah - Dynaste
6. Race: Daveron - Go West Young Man - Kilmurvy

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Happy Christmas!

there is no racing in the U.K.or Ireland now until Boxing Day (St. Stephen´s Day in Ireland) on Friday, when (weather permitting, biut the signs all look good) there is a massive programme headed by the King George at Kempton.
We will be back then but in the meantime wish all our readers a
VERY HAPPY CHRISTMAS

Monday, December 22, 2014

Last day before Christmas

This is the last race day before Christmas in the U.K. (ireland as well) and the 3 cards are of very little interest. To be honest we would rather give the two all-weather meetings at Kempton and Wolverhampton a swerve and keep our powder dry for their big meetings on Thursday.

There is jumping at Bangor where the ground will be very testing and horses with recent winning form are few and far between. Two exceptions are Restraint of Trade (Jennie Candlish/ Peter Carberry) in the novice hurdle at 15.00 CET and Minella Bliss (James Evans/ Ben Poste) in the handicap hurdle at 16.00; the latter won over fences at the beginning of the month but is equally effective over sticks and stays extreme distances well. Restraint of Trade won twice on the flat for Godolphin this year and made a good debut over hurdles when third at Aintree in what was almost certainly a much better race than this one. An inzteresting each-way bet could be German-bred Quintano (Heatjher Daltpon and daughter) in the maiden hurdle at 15.30. He is from an excellent Fährhof family and being by Black Sam Bellamy, should handle the ground. He is probably not much good, but does not need to be to be placed in this company.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

low key Sunday racing

obviously the racing now is very low key as we wait for the big Boxing Day fixtures at the end of the week - and no racing at all on the 23rd, 24th and 25th. So we have three low level jumps cards today at Lingfield, Fakenham and Thurles in Ireland. We saw yesterday at Ascot the advantage CD winners have when back over their favourite courses, and we can see the same again today at Fakenham, where we hope that Mistral Reine (Lucy Wadham/ Dougie Costello) can win the opener at 14.00 CET and Full Ov Beans (M Gates/ Mikey hamill) follow up an hour later. The former has scored both her victories over this CD, including this race last year. while the latter has won 4 times here, including last time out. It has been a very expensive business folllowing German-bred Lyssio (Jim Best/ Jason Maguire) this year and this one time German Derby 8th (and half-brother to a Derby winner) has not finished in the first 3 for 17 months. However he has dropped to a lenient rating and it is a long time since he faced such feeble opposition as in the handicap hurdle here at 15.30, so we hope he runs a bit better this time.

Another German-bred we hope can end a long losing run is the Monsun gelding Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) in the 14.10 at Lingfield. The one to beat is clearly Finish The Story (Johnny Farrelly/ Robert Hawker), who has won his last 3 races but he has a huge weight, which will not be ideal in this very heavy going. The ground will suit Umberto d´Olivate (Robert Walford/ Felix de Giles) in the main feature here, a 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.10, and he can possibly defy top weight here.

There are huge fields at the Irish meeting at Thurles. Willie Mullins had 4 winners yesterday and can score again with Lyrical Theatre, to be ridden by son Paddy oin the mares´ maiden hurdle at 14.50; she was a top bumper horse and will certainly be at long odds-on to win on her hurdling debut today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Brass Monkey - Changeofluck - Iron Butterfly
2. Race: Haatefina - Inca Dove - Come On Harriet
3. Race: Full Ov Beans - My Oh Mount Brown - Billy Twyford
4. Race: You`Ve Been Mowed - Flash Tommie - Russian Link
5. Race: Point Of Attack - Midnight Chorister - Six One Away
6. Race: Harlestone Times - Thecorruptor - Amidon

Saturday, December 20, 2014

strong card at Ascot

an excellent Saturday card at Ascot with some very competiive handicaps as well as the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.25. Zarkandar (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) is the obvious favourite here, having beaten top French hurdler Gemix last time and finished third in the French Champion Hurdle over this trip in the summer. However his best form is at Auteuil and Cheltenham, both left-handed tracks, and we shall take him on at right-handed Ascot with Nick Williams´ two runners, Aubusson (Lizzie Kelly) and Reve de Sivola (Daryl Jacob); the latter is inconsistent but saves his best form for this race, which he was won for the past 2 years, while Aubusson is in tremendous form and goes really well for this young lady rider. There are only 5 runners here, as there are in the graduation chase at 14.15, in which we take course specialist Puffin Billy (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) - 4 from 4 at Ascot!- to beat the likely favourite Irish Saint (Nicholls/ ST-D) who may find this trip on the far side.

The other 4 races are all handicaps and all look very tricky. The big betting race is the Ladbroke, a 2 miles hurdle handicap at 16.30, with 18 runners, in which Activial (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) has been heavily backed; his team is in great form, but we are always cautious with 4yo´s in such events and prefer to go for runners with more experience. Garde la Victoire (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien) made most of the running to win at Cheltenham last time, but both third-placed Clondaw Warrior (Willie Mullins/ David Casey), one of 3 Irish runners, and especially Pine Creek (John Ferguson/ S T-D), a close 5th. meet him on better terms now. Consistent Bayan (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) could be the best of the Irish, while Cool Macavity (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), while Shelford (Dan and Harry Skelton) has done nothing wrong so far over hurdles and Comes on every short lost. The Skeltons also have a chance in the opening handicap hurdle at 13.45 with Rascal. The 3 mile handicap chase at 16.00 has some classy performers, including Houblon Des Obeaux (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who finished runner-up in the Hennessy; that was good form, but he will need to do even better to win here off this weight. We prefer the lightweights Ardkilly Witness (Dr. Newland/ Tom Scudamore) and Polisky (Nicholls/ Sean Bowen), who is out of the handicap but still has good prospects on our reading of the form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rascal - The Tourard Man - Spookydooky
2. Race: Puffin Billy - Thomas Crapper - Drop Out Joe
3. Race: Lancetto - Malibu Sun - Ulck du Lin
4. Race: Zarkandar - Medinas - Reve De Sivola
5. Race: The Young Master - Houblon Des Obeaux - Sound Investment
6. Race: Activial - Shelford - Clondaw Warrior

Friday, December 19, 2014

Ascot today

Ascot stages a good card today featuring two Grade Two races, but the royal racecourse has not been properly rewarded for its enterprise, as they both have tiny fields. There are only 3 runners in the novice hurdle at 14.55 CET and only 5 in the novice chase at 15.30. In the former race all 3 runners have plenty of potential, but still have improvement to come so it is difficult to make a prediction. They come from the top 3 stables in N.H. racing, which makes thinhgs even trickier. Willie Mullins sends Killultagh Vic (Ruby Walsh) over from Ireland, a smart bumper hprse who also won his only race over hurdles in good style, but against inferior opposition. Mullins wins almost everything in sight in Ireland, but he has a very poor record in the U.K. so far this season, and one suspects that he is using these races as a sighting expedition- the same goes for today´s listed bumper race at 15.40; he probably has several much better horses for this grade and wants to know where they stand. So we prefer the Henderson and Nicholls runners here, with slight preference for the latter´s Emerging Talent (Sam Twiston-Davies) who gets 7 lbs from the otjher 2 runners. The same two trainers will probably dominate the novice chase with Henderson saddling his chase debutant Josses Hill (Barry Geraghty), a verry smart hurdler, and Nicholls and Sam T-D represented by Ptit Zig, who has already run twice over fences, winning easily enough both times, which could give him a slight edge here. Dunraven Storm (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien) is also not out of it, despite top weight, while Traffic Fluide (Gary and Josh Moore), an easy winner at Strasbourg in September is an interesting outsider.

The best betting race is the handicap hurdle at 16.05, where Henderson and Geraghty have another good chance with bottom weight Spartan Angel; she is running for the first against males but has won 3 of her 5 starts and could well be very dangerously handicapped. David Pipe has a good record here and has booked AP McCoy to partner ex-French Batavir, who made an eye-catching debut in the U.K. and is now running over his right distance. Any more rain would help the chances of Little Boy Boru (Suzy Smith/ Harry Bannister), who is much improved this season, and he is our each-way selection. The listed bumoer has attracted a very strong field, with 9 last-time-out winners. Andrew Balding keeps winning races (althoiugh not over jumps!) and we hope that his very well-bred Supasundae can do the job here with Geraghty in the saddle.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

4 poor meetings today

back to very mediocre sport today and once again there is a tiny field in the best race of the day. That is the graduation chase at 14.50 CET at Exeter with only 3 runners, all of whom were quite useful hurdlers. Brick Red (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) is the only one to have run this season, when sixth in a good race at Ascot, and that might give him an advantage. Mr.Mole (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) made all the running when winning at Newton Abbot in April, but faces better opposition now. The Queen´s Open Hearted (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) was beaten a long way when runner-up at Newbury a year ago, but the winner that day is smart and as he gets 7 lbs from the other two, he is our selection. Others we like here are Midnight Belle (Tom Syonds/ Felix de Giles), who has top weight in the handicap chase at 15.20; he won 5 races over hurdles and now seems to be finding his way over fences. And another top weight, Trickaway (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson)half an hour later; he made all the running to win easily iast time and can defy a 9 lbs rise in the weights. Another one up in the weights is Bredon Hill Lad (Sue and Lucy Gardner) who won twice in November, including this CD, and can complete the hat-trick at 16.50.

At Towcester, Kilcora Fort (Noel Williams/ James Banks) should win the novice hurdle at 14.40; his latest second place reads very well in the context of this race; St Johns Point (Charlie Longsdon/ Jason Maguire) looks the main - and probaby only- danger.

Betting forecast Exeter:
1. Race: Winter Walk - Nitrogen - Onderun
2. Race: Lochnagar - Pull The Chord - Shammick Boy
3. Race: Open Hearted - Mr Mole - Brick Red
4. Race: Midnight Belle - Alder Mairi - Definitely Better
5. Race: Trickaway - The Happy Warrior - Judge Davis
6. Race: Miss Estela - Queen`s Star - Leaderofthedance
7. Race: Bredon Hill Lad - Unefille De Guye - The Kvilleken

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Newbury and Ludlow

there is N.H. racing this afternoon at Newbury and Ludlow, and the sport on offer - while not up to Saturday standards- is certainly much better than for the past couple of days, and the fields bigger and more competitive as well. However there are only 4 runners in the best race, the graduation chase over 3 miles at 15.15 CET at Newbury, and these races continue to be a problem. Today´s race should lie between Easter Day (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and Walkon (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), both having their first race of the season. The former won twice last December, while the latter last ran in the Grand National, where he was pulled up. Walkon has also the higher rating and is much more experienced over fences - threy were both smart hurdlers - and is just preferred this time. Jonjo O´Neill has not really hit top form yet, but we still think that his Communicator (Tony McCoy) is the best bet of the day in the maiden hurdle at 14.10. Previously trained by Andrew Balding, his only run over hurdles was actually in this race last year when he finished runner-up in a huge field; since then he has run some good races in top staying handicaps on the flat, but if he can repeat his 2013 performance, he should beat these opponents, the best of whom is probably Beast of Burden (Rebecca Curtis/ Davy Russell), an easy bumper winner. We are also interested to see how Gevrey Chambertin (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) gets on in the handicap chase at 13.40. This brother to the very smart Grands Crus has not lived up to expectations so far, but is now running in first time blinkers and has also been dropped in the ratings to a favourable mark.
Several of the top jumps jockeys are in action at Ludlow, among them Barry Geraghty and Richard Johnson. Both have some good rides and we expect Johnson to come out on top with German-bred Neck or Nothing at 13.20 and Tara Mist at 16.00 with Geraghty riding the main danger in both races.

There is also all-weather flat racing today at Lingfield and Kempton (late start). Some jockeys will be riding at both, e.g. Jamie Spencer who partners Master of Irony in the 2yo maiden at Lingfield at 14.30 and Hurricane Alert in a similar race at 17.40 at Kempton; both are trained by Ralph Beckett and owned by Qatar Racing.
.later: Hurricane Alert is a non-runner!

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Blue Atlantic - Jalingo - Winner Massagot
2. Race: Minella On Line - Kaki De La Pree - Oscar Fortune
3. Race: Beast Of Burden - Communicator - Hannah Just Hannah
4. Race: Greenlaw - Winston Churchill - Major Milborne
5. Race: Tinker Time - Easter Day - Masters Hill
6. Race: Jack Frost - Value At Risk - Vayland
7. Race: Miss Minx - Martha Mccandles - Amour D`or

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Catterick only jumps card today

Catterick stages the only jumps racing today and AP McCoy travels to Yorkshire with good prospects of riding a few winners. His main reason is presumably to partner Philip Hobbs´ If In Doubt for JP McManus in the beginners chase at 15.40 CET. A smart hurdler, he has not won over fences yet but can put that right today. McCoy also has a good chance in the novice hurdle at 14.40 on John Quinn´s Chieftain´s Choice, but here we prefer Jacks Last Hope (Chris Grant/ Brian Hughes) in receipt of 7 lbs. Our other fancies on this low grade card are Danceintothelight (Micky Hammond/ Alice Mills), with one of the best amateurs aboard at 13.10, and Bourne in the handicap hurdle at 15.10, who has not won for a long time but has been running in much better races. Ex-German Pindar (Jody Foster/ Dougie Costello) has bottom weight in the handicap chase at 14.10; he won a similar race when last seen 3 months ago and can perhaps score again, while McCoy is also expected to win the 3yo hurdle at 13.40 on debutant New Street for Jim Best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Some Lad - Danceintothelight - Pegasus Walk
2. Race: New Street - Celtic Artisan - Grand Meister
3. Race: Pindar - Cango - Dark And Dangerous
4. Race: Jacks Last Hope - Chieftain`s Choice - Argent Knight
5. Race: Iconic Rose - Foot The Bill - Bourne
6. Race: Askamore Darsi - Lord Brendy - Volo Mio
7. Race: Junius Brutus - Bear Island Flint - Chitu



The all-weather meetings at Southwell and Kempton are only of minor interest. In both cases the best betting race is a 5 furlongs handicap, in which we hope that CD specialists Sir Geoffrey (Scott Dixon/ Tim Clark) and Triple Dream (Milton Bradley/ Jimmy Quinn) can repay a small each-way Investment at 15.30 and 16.20 respectively.

Monday, December 15, 2014

3 poor meetings today

a typical winter Monday with two very low level cards over jumps at Ffos Las and Plumpton, and an even worse card on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. The best card is at the Welsh meeting and Rebecca Curtis and AP McCoy have an excellent striuke ragte when they Team up here. They have 3 chances today, with Globalisation at 13.55 CET, Red Devil Lads at 15.05 and Lookslikerainted at 15.40 and it would be no huge surprise were all 3 to win. From the German point of view, the first-named race is the most interesting of the day as the field for this novice hurdle inciudes two ex-German runners: Floresco (R Woollacott/ Daryl Jacob) and Global Thrill (Bernard Lewellyn/ Robert Williams). Both finished third on their hurdling debut in the U.K. and should be certainly capable of picking up a race at this level, although we are not sure that they can beat the Curtis/ McCoy hotpot. Global Thrill was easily the better of the pair in Germany, winning a group race. Also in the field is debutant Clyne (Paul Moloney), one of 3 runners for local trainer Evan Williams; he also has a German background, being out of a Nebos mare from the fmily of Lando, and he is in fact a half-brother to smart hurdler Zamdy Man.

The going is heavy at Plumpton and there are some very small fields, with only 4 runners in the main event, a novice chase at 13.40. All 45 were winning hurdlers and could well go on to better things over fences as well. Our choice is Chris Pea Green (Gary and Josh Moore), who after running up 3 times to decent opponents, finally won over this CD in as canter a fortnight ago. That was a very weak race, but we hope that he can repeat that performance against much stronger opposition.

The only point of interest in the all-weather card at Wolverhampton is the reappearance after eleven months of 11yo La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Graham Lee). The old boy is close to the all-time all-weather record of 26 wins and, if anywhere near his usual form, should win today, but the trainer warns that he is getting a bit fragile.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cape Caster - Mercoeur - Zephyr
2. Race: Globalisation - Clyne - Global Thrill
3. Race: The Omen - Supreme Bob - Devil`s Dyke
4. Race: Red Devil Lads - Prima Porta - Hansupfordetroit
5. Race: Lookslikerainted - Goodtoknow - Knockanrawley
6. Race: Rock On Rocky - Oscar Sunset - Arrayan
7. Race: Ezetiger - Oskar`s Eva - The Gipper

Sunday, December 14, 2014

huge fields at Navan

As is so often the case on a Sunday, the best races today are run at Navan in Ireland, with the two U.K.meetings at Carlisle and Southwell of rather less interest. However with only just over a week to go before the big Boxing Day cards, top quality sport today is mainly missing.

The best race of the day is the Grade Two novice hurdle at Navan at 13.55 CET, but while there are some huge fields here, in this race only 5 line up, with Shaneshill (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) likely to start at Odds-on. Mullins has won this race for the last 3 years and this one, a top bumper horse and runner up in the Cheltenham bumper, looks set to continue the sequence. He won his only hurdle race easily enough, although his hurdling technique can still be improved, but it seems his only serious opponent now is No More Heroes (Gordon Elliott/ Barry Geraghty), also a good bumper winner (but at a lower level) and easy winner of his only hurdle race.. The other 3 runners are all useful but it will be surprising ifthey can beat this pair. Our other fancies here areGrecian Tiger (Dermot Weld/ Davy Russell) in the opening maiden hurdle with 29 runners; he makes his debut over sticks today, but has some decent form on the flat and the only danger is expected to be Fort Smith (Elliott/ Geraghty), who has been running in good company. And Rubi Light (Robbie Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) who has top weight in the handicap chase at 15.35; he has not won for nearly 3 years but has mainly been racing graded races and has dropped to a very low mark, relatively speaking, and it is a long time since he ran in such a low grade race as this.

The best horse by far running in the U.K. today is Grand National winner Pineau De Re (Dr.Newland/ Christopher Ward), who has to concede lots of weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.25 at Carlisle. We are a bit worried about the heavy going, but he is different class to these opponents and the trainer has always made it clear that he will be campaigned over hurdles before returning to Aintree to defend his title in early April. He is a decent hurdler and was runner-up here last year - he can go one better now.

Navan - betting forecast:
1. Race: Fort Smith - Grecian Tiger - Domesday Book
2. Race: Black Spot On - Shabra`s Bertolini - Lethal Weapon
3. Race: No More Heroes - Couleur France - Shantou Flyer
4. Race: Dara Tango - Lite Duties - Roll It Out
5. Race: Jarry D`honneur - Lots Of Memories - Champagne James
6. Race: Fever Pitch - Abbey Lane - Arzembouy Premier
7. Race: Ravished - The Doorman - Draycott Place
8. Race: Bordini - Attribution - Rock On The Moor

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Cheltenham´s International Meeting: second day

Cheltenham´s International Meeting goes into its second day today with some very competitive racing and we shall no doubt be seeing many of today´s runners back here at the Festival in March. However the big races then will mainly be run at level weights, while today the various weight concessions could play a big role.

The main event is the International Hurdle at 16.10 CET where The New One Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) will probably start at ods-on; he has a good record here and was a very unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle, clearly the best form in the race. he won this last year and has won his last 3 races. However he has to concede 8 lbs to Vaniteux (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) which will certainly not be that easy, while we also like Zamdy Man (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who meets him on better terms this time after running second to The New One at Haydock. Zamdy Man, out of a Nebos mare closely related to Lando, is a horse we like and he could be a decent each-way bet at the likly double figure odds.

The big betting race is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.00,which looks wide open. Caid du Berlais (Paul Nicholls/ Sam T-D). He has only gone up 5 lbs for that win and looks certain to be involved again. Ericht (Henderson/ Geraghty) was well behind that day and Easter Meteor (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) pulled up, bjut we expect them both to run much better this time. Attaglance (Malcolm Jefferson/ Brian Hughes) and Barrakilla (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) are others to consider, but almost any of the 12 runners could win here.

The 3 mile novice hurdle at 15.35 is another race in which the horse with the best form- Blaklion (Nigel T-D/ Jamie Moore) has to concede weight, and it could be that Port Melon ( Nicholls/ Sam T-D) could prove superior in receipt of 7 lbs. However both are moving up in trip, while Binge Drinker (Rebecca Curtis/ McCoy) and Parish Business (Emma Lavelle/ Coleman) are both proven at the distance, so it is not clear cut.

Best bet of the day could be Hargam (Henderson/ McCoy) in the opening 3yo hurdle at 13.15; he made a most encouraging debut when runner-up here at the November meeting in what was possibly the best juvenile hurdle of the season so far. It has been a frosty night in many places and Doncaster has called for a third inspection before racing gets the green light. If so, there will be very small fields, and here also there is a good race for 3yo hurdlers, which could also go to the Henderson stable via Peace and Co (Daryl Jacob).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hargam - Stars Over The Sea - Karezak
2. Race: Champagne West - Un Ace - Little Jon
3. Race: Solar Impulse - Bold Henry - Sew On Target
4. Race: Caid Du Berlais - Barrakilla - No Buts
5. Race: Blaklion - Port Melon - Parish Business
6. Race: Vaniteux - Zamdy Man - Bertimont
7. Race: Volnay De Thaix - Rock On Ruby - Lac Fontana

Friday, December 12, 2014

Cheltenham´s International Meeting

there has been a lot of rain in many parts of the U.K. and the going will be much softer than forecast; this also results in some non-runners, especially at Bangor and Doncaster where there are some very small fields as a result.

However the going for the first day of Chelternham´s International Meeting remains good to soft and this is far and away the best card of the day, even though by Cheltenham standards nothing really special. Main event is the Grade Three handicap chase over 3 1/ 4 miles at 15.10 CET. Hadrian´s Approach (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) has top weight here, but he has not run since winning the big April chase at Sandown and we cannot imagine his winning here. The two 11yo´s in the field look dangerous, especilly Charingworth (Kim Bailey/ HAA Bannister), who won here last time and goes really well for this jockey. Pigeon Island was third here last year and is now on an attractive weight, while Standing Ovation (David PIpe/ Tom Scudamore) and Cowards Close (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) both look capable of winning a big race off their current rating.

The cross country chase half an hour later sees numerous CD specialists in the line-up, including the 2,3,4 from thisd race last year as well as several who ran in the cross country at the Festival in March. It looks really tricky, but we suspect that the two Irish traiders, Big Shu (Peter Maher/ Paul Carberry) and Uncle Junior (Willie Mullins) will find it tough with their big weight, and our 3 against the field are Duke of Lucca (Phjilip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville) - especially if any more rain falls- and French challenger Pasquini Rouge.

Hobbs and Johnson are still in tremendous form and have another good chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.16 with the admirably tough German-bred Big Easy, although he is not so well handicapped now, while we also like Nico de Boinville´s chances in the handicap hurdle at 14.40 with Starluck, who is down in grade here. Best bet of the day could be Kings Palace (Pipe/ Scu) in the opening novice chase at 13.30, who was most impressive here on his chasing debut last month; he has to give weight to some useful prospects, but he think that he could be a real star.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sausalito Sunrise - Vivaldi Collonges - Return Spring
2. Race: Gallery Exhibition - Al Alfa - Hollow Blue Sky
3. Race: Lough Kent - Street Entertainer - Vintage Vinnie
4. Race: Hadrian`s Approach - Charingworth - Samstown
5. Race: Big Shu - Uncle Junior - Any Currency
6. Race: Big Easy - Ulzana`s Raid - Guiding George
7. Race: Some Plan - Padge - Clondaw Banker

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Mainly handicaps

Another poor day´s sport today, with mainly low grade handicaps at the 3 afternoon N.H. meetings, the best of which is Warwick, where 2 runners with a German background have caught our eye. Chatez (Alan King/ Aidan Coleman) was a decent handicapper on the flat and won his first race over hurdles well enough; he should be able to concede weight all round in the 3yo hurdle at 13.30 CET - his dam is from one of Baron Ullmann´s best families. An hour later Attimo (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily) runs in the handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles; he has nowhere near the ability of his half-brother Altano, but would not need to in order to run well in this company.

The runner with the best German pedigree running today is Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan) who goes for a similar race at Taunton at 15.10; he is a half-brother to German Derby winner Samum and Schiaparelli from the most successful Germany of recent years. However his record over jumps is patchy and although he has some talent, we fear that the very soft ground (the weather is bad all over the U.K. at present) will be against him. Our best bet at this meeting is Unforgettable (Peter Bowen/ Richard Johnson) at 16.10; the old boy is on a long losing run, but has come down the weights and is now very well handicapped, and this looks a weak race.

At Newcastle there is a huge field for the handicap hurdle at 15.10, but this is clearly a case of quantity rater than quality, as most of them are out of form; one exception is Jukebox Melody (John Wade/ Keith Renwick), who has been put up 7 lbs for winning at Sedgefield last time, but could possibly still score again.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

valuable race at Kempton this evening

easily the best race of the day, and the most valuable, is the 1 mile 3 furlongs handicap at 19.20 CET this evening at Kempton, which is worth more than most German group races. This is the final race of a long qualifying series, which means that most of these runners have met before and most of them are CD winners, which does not make it any easier to find the winner. A low draw is a big advantage here, so we shall try to make things simpler by eliminating all runners drawn 10 or higher - which includes last year´s winner I´m Fraam Govan, owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, and the two Godolphin runners, Solidarity and Anglophile. All-weather specialist Grendisar (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) has to come on the short list; he has top-weight here but has an excellent record at this track and won a listed race here in the autumn with Rydan (Robert Mills/ Tom Queally) a close third. Bancnuanaheireann was a narrow winner here last week, but is held on earlier CD form by Rebellious Guest (George Margarson/ Martin Lane), who does not run often on the all-weather, but when he does, usually runs a strong race. Double Discount (Tom Dascombe/ Jim Crowley) was runner-up to Solidarity last time and not only meets him on better terms now, but is much better drawn. This is a really tricky race, but we hope that one of the above-mentioned wins.

The two jumps cards this afternoon are very weak, with small fields in almost every race, and the conditions at Hexham will be most unpleasant, with heavy ground and gale force winds. One who seems to enjoy these conditions is course specialist Samson Collonges (Rebecca Menzies/ Henry Brooke) in the handicap chase at 15.50, who runs his best races here when the mud is flying.

The best race at Leicester is the concluding handicap hurdle at 16.10 in which there are two ex-German runners, Dawn Twister (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) and Cafe au Lait (Tony Middleton/ Sean Quinlkan). The latter was runner-up in the Austrian Derby for Christian von der Recke, while the former was a listed winner at Baden-Baden for Jens Hirschberger. Dawn Twister has not really lived up to expectations over hurdles, and is coming off a long break, but he runs well fresh and we shall give him another chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spinning Cobblers - Copper Cavalier - Seven Lucky Seven
2. Race: China Club - Waaleef - Mecado
3. Race: Kyrenia Castle - Percella - Born To Be Bad
4. Race: Mr Singh - Stay Strong - Assagher
5. Race: Sighora - Squire - My Red Devil
6. Race: Grendisar - Solidarity - Rydan
7. Race: Ridgeway Storm - Snowy Dawn - Charlie Wells

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Fontwell and Uttoxeter

we shall ignore today´s all-weather meeting at Southwell, where all races are class 5 or 6 and are best left alone, and concentrate on the two N.H. cards at Fontwell and Uttoxeter. Fontwell has survived an early morning inspection because of frost., but clearly the going will be very soft at both meetings. The best horse running today is probably Cloudy Copper (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), who runs in the novice chase at Uttoxeter at 13.50 CET. He looked very promising when winning both his U.K. hurdles starts very easily two years ago but has not been seen since. If anywhere that form now he should win his first chase, although the mares Rattlin (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) and especially Top Totti (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall) have both shown good form over fences and will expose any weaknesses. McCoy has another good chance on Marie King´s top-weight Dormouse in the handicap hurdle half an hour later, who has only been put up 3 lbs for an easy win at Lingfield last time; however ex-German Lochnagar (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) must have good prospects in this weak company, although he would not the going to get too heavy.

The staying handicap chase at 15.10 at Fontwell is an interesting event, despite having only 5 runners, but should lie between top-weight Theratrical Star (Colin Tizzard/ Brendan Powell), who ran well enough over hurdles at Cheltenham last time but is more at home in this metier. and Global Power (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell), runner-up in a good field at Carlisle last time after a year off the track. Both stay well, come from stables in top form and are unbeaten here. Two runners here with German pedigrees that could run well at a big price are Liberty Red at 13.40 and Cabimas half an hour later.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Beacon Lady - Abigail Lynch - Bantam
2. Race: Cloudy Copper - Top Totti - Rattlin
3. Race: Wordy`S Boy - Dormouse - Lochnagar
4. Race: Bjornlucky - Uranium - Keel Haul
5. Race: Storm Of Swords - Rosa Fleet - Filatore
6. Race: Positive Vibes - L Frank Baum - First Of Never
7. Race: Champagne Chaser - Redkalani - Flabello

Monday, December 08, 2014

Mainly Handicaps

Today´s 3 meetings in the U.K. - two on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield, and over jumps at Musselburgh- consist mainly of handicaps, and mainly low grade ones at that.

However it is a non-handicap that has the best thing of the day in our opinion- the opening maiden hurdle at 13.45 CET at Musselburgh. John Ferguson has his hurdlers in top form and now saddles Arabic History (Tony McCoy), who runs for the first time over sticks after finishing 1/2 on his 4 bumper starts, some in top company. Assuming he jumps well- which can almost be taken for granted with this team- he looks very hard to beat here. Another runner here who has been first or second on all his starts so far is Desoto County (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) in the handicap hurdle at 15.20. However he is coming off a break and with the stable still not firing on all fronts, we would raher wait and see; AP rides Lucky Cody here for Brian Ellison, but he seems very high in the weights for what he has actually achieved, and we prefer stable companion Yesyoucan (Danny Cook) who has been running against better opposition and could be well treated here. Course specialist Titus Bolt (Jim Goldie/Ryan Day) is one of many dangers in the trickiest race of the day.

The two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap at Kempton will not take much winning and our selections are Zwan Awal (James fanshawe/ Tom Queally) at 17.10 and half an hour later last week´sd CD winner Stellarta (Michael Blanshard/ Steve Drowne) although in the latter race we also respect oldtimer Palace Moon (William Knight/ Jim Crowley), who is on a long losing run but is very well handicapped on his old form.

At Lingfield the mile handicap at 16.00 is thr best betting race, and we expect the two 3yo top-weights Razor Wind (Charlie Appleby/ Shane Gray) and Semaral (Chris Wall/ Martin Lane) to fight out the finish. Both won last time out and look likely improvers.

Sunday, December 07, 2014

Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon

There is better than usual jumps racing in the U.K. as well, where the Grade Two Peterborough Chase at 15.05 CET at Huntingdon is the main event. This is Huntíngdon´s top card of the season, but whether it is a good Idea to switch it from the usual midweek slot to a Sunday remains to be seen. Eduard (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) is the likely favourite and his latest second place to Many Clouds has been well boosted since. However we are not totally convinced, Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Wonderful Charm (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) both look very dangerous, while Nicky Henderson - who has easily the best record at this track - saddles two runners French Opera (Barry Geraghty) and Rajdhani Express (Sam Waley-Cohen). The latter´s jockey showed again yesterday that he is as good as the pros and we think he could be the value here.

There is also a good card at Kelso and the Scottish Borders National over 4 miles at 14.50 looks very tricky. Scotswell (Heather Graham/ James Reveley) is our choice here; he is inconsistent but was runner-up in this last year and now looks very well handicapped. The valuable handicap chase over a mile shorter at 15.20 also has a competitive look, but for us Shotavodka (David PIpe/ Tom Scudamore) stands out; he has to concede lumps of weight all round, but has by far the best form in the field. We also like Bogside (George Charlton/ Lucy Alexander) in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 14.20; this CD specialist has only run once since winning this last year, but a repeat of that form would probably be good enough.

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Becher Chase at Aintree

Thoughts of the Grand National will be in most people´s minds at Aintree today as the two top events are run over the National fences- the Becher Chase over 3 1/4 miles at 14.30 and the Grand Sefton over shorter at 16.15. Both races could provide valuable clues to the big meting and the former race in particular is an important tial for theNational itself; several of today´s huge field of 25 ran there last season, or in the Scottish, Welsh, irish and other equivalents. Obviously course experience is a huge advantage here, and we expect last year´s winner Chance Du Roy (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien) to play a leading role again despite being now 6 lbs higher. Clearly there are many dangers, of whom we would mention Renard (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell), The Package (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Irish raider Goonyella (Jim Dreaper/ Jonathan Burke) and Highland Lodge (Emma Lavelle/ Andrew Thornton).Paul Nicholls has a strong Hand in thr Grand Sefton with top-weight Rolling Aces (Nick Scholfield) and last year´s winner Rebel Rtebellion (Ryan Mahon), where bennys Mist (venetia/ Trteadwell) and Bob Ford (Rebecca Curtis/ Jamie Moore) could be ther main threats. Ex-German Nexius (Keith Dalgleish/ Keith Renwick) - third to Novellist in the 2012 Union-Rennen- has really improved over hurdles and has gone up 30 lbs for winning his last 3 races; he still has a decent chance in the handicap hurdle at 15.05, but we just prefer Mijhaar (John Ferguson/ Jamie Moore).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ballybolley - Area Fifty One - Great Try
2. Race: Nyanza - Announcement - Hannah`s Magic
3. Race: Baileys Concerto - Distime - Bincombe
4. Race: Chance Du Roy - Balbriggan - Goonyella
5. Race: Secrete Stream - Dawalan - Nexius
6. Race: Holywell - Ma Filleule - Sam Winner
7. Race: Rolling Aces - Rebel Rebellion - Dolatulo

Friday, December 05, 2014

Exeter and Sandown

today´s action is all in the south of England, with both Exeter and Sandown having strong N.H. cards, while there is all-weather flat racing at Lingfield, as well as this evening at Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland).
There are some smart performers racing at Sandown, but the fields are very small and only 5 line up for the main event, a Grade Two novice hurdle at 14.55 CET. Four of them are unbeaten this season, including Vyta du Roc (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), but he has 3 lbs extra for winning a similar race at Cheltenham last time. Ordo Ab Chao (Alan King/ Denis O´Regan) and Shantou Bob (Warren Greatrex/ Gavin Sheehan) both look distinctly useful, but at these weights our choice is the mare Tara Point (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies). Trainer and jockey can complete a quick double ijn the next race, a listed chase over 3 mjiles, with Black Thunder, who has to concede weight but is also clear best on ratings. Each way betting is barely possible here., but we like Howlongisafoot (Nicholls/ Twiston-Davies) at 14.30 and Net Work Rouge (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire) at 16.30.
The fields are bigger at Exeter and it is interesting that some of the top jockeys are here, notably AP McCoy and Richard Johnson. McCoy´s main reason is to partner Jonjo O´Neill´s American Legend in the Devon Marathon over 4 miles at 16.20. He has a chance, but this is a very tricky race with several runners moving up in distance, and the drying ground also a factor to be considered. Johnson rides top-weight Benbane Head for Martin Keighley, while his trainer Philip Hobbs saddles the lightweight Milosam with Tom O´Brien aboard. For Hobbs, Johnson partners Horizontal Speed in the hot novice chase at 14.10 and the penalised Hello George in the novice hurdle at 15.15 and both come on the short list. Paul Nicholls also has runners here and he can take the handicap chase at 14.40 with Wilton Milan (Jack Sherwood), a winner without a penalty as he runs off the same mark as when easily winning at Newbury last week with the same claimer in the saddle.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Baraka De Thaix - Baron Alco - Bivouac
2. Race: In Fairness - Howlongisafoot - Panama Petrus
3. Race: Vyta Du Roc - Tara Point - Shantou Bob
4. Race: Corrin Wood - Dare To Endeavour - Rocky Bender
5. Race: Ballyallia Man - Coolking - Handy Andy
6. Race: Theinval - Jayo Time - As De Mee

Thursday, December 04, 2014

5 meetings today

four jumps cards this afternoon, plus an all-weather twilight meeting at Kempton, and with the weather improving and the ground drying out, there are some bigger fields today, especially at the Irish meeting at Clonmel. However most of the races are of low standard and probably the best card is at Wincanton, where there are two very competitive handicaps. Buck´s Bond (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) attempts to repeat his 2013 victory in the chase over 3 miles+ at 15.15 CET and has an obvious chance for the top local trainer. Top-weight Silver Commander (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) is having his first start for this in-form stable but is probably best watched after a year off, while ex-French Ziga Boy (Alan King/ Tom Bellamy) must also be considered after 3 relatively meaningless starts in the U.K. Half an hour later they go 2 miles over hurdles in another very tricky race. Ronaldinho (King/ Noel fehily) and Canadian Diamond (Bremndan Powell/ James Banks) could both be nicely handicapped now after a long losing run, but neither seems completely reliable and we expect the race to lie between Rayvin Black (Oliver Sherwood/ Thomas Garner), who made a good comeback after a year off, and Minella Definitely (Neil Mulholland/ Mikey Hamill); Connections seem to have found the key to the latter, who is much improved this season and we think that he can complete the hat-trick.
Mulholland also runs a hat-trick seeker at Leicester, Ballydague Lady (Martin McIntyre) who runs at 16.20 after winning twice in the past 8 days; she is bound to take a steep hike in the weights. so it makes sense to run her again so quickly under a fixed penalty, as she appears very well handicapped fort this race. main opposition should come from Easy Beasy (Warren Greatrex/ Gavin Sheehan), who was still going well in the lead when falling 3 out last time. Greatrex and Sheehan start the day at Market Rasen, where they have fancied runners in the first 2 races - Blue Atlantic at 13.20 and Warrantor half an hour later. Both are penalised for winning last time and are possibly vulnerable, so we prefer Pain au Chocolat (King/ Denis O´Regan) and Weststreet (Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sportsreport - Pod - Fuse Wire
2. Race: Black Narcissus - Kilronan High - Ice Tres
3. Race: Muckle Roe - Polamco - Comte D`anjou
4. Race: Buck`s Bond - Lily Waugh - Silver Commander
5. Race: Minella Definitely - Powerful Action - Rayvin Black
6. Race: Ray Diamond - Quite By Chance - Champagne N Caviar
7. Race: Ivor`s Queen - Flashyfrank - Do We Like Him

Wednesday, December 03, 2014

jumps racing at Catterick and Ludlow

racing steps up a gear today and there is interesting jumps racing - with larger and more competitive fields- at both Catterick and Ludlow. The top race of the day is the Boyne Cup a handicap chase over an extended 3 miles at 15.10 CET at Ludlow, in which Roll The Dice )(Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), from a stable having a ttremendous run, is likely to start favourite. He has run well on all his 3 seasonal starts but we are not sure that he really stays this trip and would rather go against him. Gorsky Island (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) won nicely over this CD 20 days ago; that was his first ever success and he can go on from there, but it is worth noting that Abbeygrey (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) was only just over a length behind and is now 5 lbs better off. Kingsmere (Henry >Daly/ Jake Greenall), who has been hudling, is also on the short list. We have a similsr situation half an hour later when Vivaccio (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) attempts to follow up his easy win here that same day. Bonobo (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) was beaten quite a long way but is now 12 lbs better off and a definite danger.

It is very unusual for Nicky Henderson to have runners at Catterick, but he sends two to the Yorkshire track today - Cocktails at Dawn (Andrew Tinkler) in the beginners chase at 14.50 and Taylor (Daryl Jacob) in the mares novice hurdle half an hour later. Both were runners-up last time and can go one better today, although they will both be at quite short odds. Ex-German Birthday Guest (Philip Kirby/ Adam Nicol) runs in the opening handicap hurdle at 13.20, He won 5 races on the flat for Christian von der Recke, but has shown very little in his 6 starts in the U.K.; however his third last form was not too bad in the context of this race and he could run a big race at a long price. Veteran CD specialist Patavium (Edwin Tuer/ Tony Kelly) is another to keep an eye on in the same event.
Unfortunately there are very small fields in the main events at the two all-weather meetings, with only 4 showing up for the 10 furlongs conditions race at 15.00 at Lingfield. All 4 are quite decent, and although on official ratinhs he is actually worst in, we choose Brazilian-bred Energia Davos (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), who has always threatened to win a race on this standard and ran really well in a strong listed race over this CD last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Moss Street - Stentorian - Desert Recluse
2. Race: Shinooki - Etania - Ronnie Lawson
3. Race: Mystery Drama - Stephanie Frances - Cloudante
4. Race: Gorsky Island - Abbeygrey - Roll The Dice
5. Race: Vivaccio - Oyster Shell - Uriah Heep
6. Race: Miss Lucky Penny - Mac Bertie - Lukes Hill
7. Race: The Clonlisk Bug - Timon`s Tara - The Hon Mackinlay

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

3 more poor meetings today

if anything, today´s cards are even worse than yesterday´s, with no race at the 3 U.K. meetings - Sedgefield and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton on the flat (with a late start) better than class level. The top jump jockeys- including AP McCoy and Richard Johnson- are all at Southwell despite the very poor prize-money on offer, and the two mentioned should certainly go home with a winner or two. Johnson can take the handicap chase at 13.15 CET on his mother´s The Last Bridge and can follow up with Alan King´s The Tourard Man, placed on all his starts so far, in the novice hurdle an hour later. Wew also like his chancs on Mike Appleby´s dubutant Bfrigadoon, a consistent handicapper on the flat, at 15.20. Ransom Note (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) was much better class on the flat, But he has questions to answer here, while Lemony Bay (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) and Some Buckle (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) never ran on the flat but have both showed some ability over sticks, so this is a bit tricky. McCoy´s best chances are probably in the handicap hurdles at 14.50 and an hour later on Bandit Country for Jonjo O´Neill and Jigsaw Financial for Laura Young respectively.
The most interesting race at Sedhefield is the handicap hurdle at 15.00 where most of the runners have an pronounced aversion to ever winning a race. Many of them suffer from acute seconditis, such as Silver Shuffle, who has a German pedigree being by Big Shuffle out of a Lando mare, but has managed one win from 47 starts - none at all over jumps- but is repeatedly placed. We shall take a chance on Sam Lord each way (Jimmy Moffatt/ Graham Watters), who at least knows how to win and has quite a good record here. David Pipe and Tom Scudamore come here for two runners and they could both win- Mount Haven in the maiden hurdle at 14.00, whose latest form has been well boosted, and Skylander in the bumper that ends the card at 16.30.
The best event at Wolverhamptpn is the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 16.40, where the two fillkies t the top of the weights should both get involved - Duchess of Gazeley (Dean Ivory/ Seb Sanders) and the well-bred Sagesse (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris), who is up in trip here. Sir Mark is always dangerous in such races, but we prefer the former, who was racing in much better compoany at the start of the year.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Last Bridge - Typical Oscar - Cruising Bye
2. Race: Ballymoat - Jewellery - Gold Ingot
3. Race: The Tourard Man - Henllan Harri - Mackerye End
4. Race: Bandit Country - Spanish Arch - The Road Ahead
5. Race: Lemony Bay - Ransom Note - Mad Jack Mytton
6. Race: Arthur Mc Bride - Amazing Scenes - Flash Tommie
7. Race: North Country Boy - Diaktoros - Kingussie

Monday, December 01, 2014

3 poor meetings today

a very low key start to the week with jumping from Plumpton and all-weather flat racing from Wolverhampton and Kempton (late start). The best horse running today is probably Chris Pea Green (Gary and Josh Moore) who goes for the novice chase at 14.10 CET at Plumpton. He was a smart handicap hurdler and has made a good start to his chasing career, being runner-up to a decent type on all his 3 starts.There is nothing of the calibre of those winners in today´s small field and he should not be hard pressed to win, although he will start at a prohibitive price. The other interesting runner here is Southway Star (Neil King/ B Andrews), who is going for her fifth win in less than a month at 14.40. She reverts to hurdles here - and is still reasonably handicapped on her old form over sticks, but today we prefer Cove (Nick Gifford/ Charlie Deutsch), who ran well in better company last time at Ascot.
Best flat race is the 2 mile handicap at 16.30 at Wolverhampton, where all 7 runners have recent form to their credit. Cousin Khee (Hughie Morrison/ Hayley Turner) and Buckland (Charlie Fellowes) are both good enough in this grade, but we are not sure that they can concede the weight to German-bred Mister Bob (Jamie Bethell/ Graham Lee) and Uncle Bernie (Andrew Hollinshead/ Robert Tart), both recent CD winners. We prefer the former, whose dam (by Acatenango) was a listed winner in Germany and who has shown much improved form since being stepped up in distance.
At Kempton, the 7 furlongs handicap at 18.20 is the best race and Godolphin´s improving 3yo Holiday Magic (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby) looks sure to start a warm favourite after winning his last 3 races, all at this track. He is probably better than this grade and can score again, but this is no penalty kick as he faces some in-form opponents, notably Stonefield Flyer (Keith Dalgleish/ Graham Lee), who scored in good style over this CD 4 weeks ago and is only 3 lbs higher, Light from Mars (Ron Harris/ Willie Twiston-Davies) is another CD specialist who could go well, but in our view his team has a a better chance in the following race with Noverre to Go, who is down to his lowest rating in years but has a good record here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Siobhans Beauty - Dusky Lark - Handsome Horace
2. Race: Albatros De Guye - Romeo Americo - What`S For Tea
3. Race: Teochew - Mistral Reine - Cannon Fodder
4. Race: Bobbits Way - Shantou Breeze - Alright Benny
5. Race: Zero Visibility - Hold The Bucks - Lord Brantwood
6. Race: Cheat The Cheater - Raid Stane - According To Them
7. Race: Oh So Fruity - Whispering Speed - Red Devil Star