Sunday, December 14, 2014

huge fields at Navan

As is so often the case on a Sunday, the best races today are run at Navan in Ireland, with the two U.K.meetings at Carlisle and Southwell of rather less interest. However with only just over a week to go before the big Boxing Day cards, top quality sport today is mainly missing.

The best race of the day is the Grade Two novice hurdle at Navan at 13.55 CET, but while there are some huge fields here, in this race only 5 line up, with Shaneshill (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) likely to start at Odds-on. Mullins has won this race for the last 3 years and this one, a top bumper horse and runner up in the Cheltenham bumper, looks set to continue the sequence. He won his only hurdle race easily enough, although his hurdling technique can still be improved, but it seems his only serious opponent now is No More Heroes (Gordon Elliott/ Barry Geraghty), also a good bumper winner (but at a lower level) and easy winner of his only hurdle race.. The other 3 runners are all useful but it will be surprising ifthey can beat this pair. Our other fancies here areGrecian Tiger (Dermot Weld/ Davy Russell) in the opening maiden hurdle with 29 runners; he makes his debut over sticks today, but has some decent form on the flat and the only danger is expected to be Fort Smith (Elliott/ Geraghty), who has been running in good company. And Rubi Light (Robbie Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) who has top weight in the handicap chase at 15.35; he has not won for nearly 3 years but has mainly been racing graded races and has dropped to a very low mark, relatively speaking, and it is a long time since he ran in such a low grade race as this.

The best horse by far running in the U.K. today is Grand National winner Pineau De Re (Dr.Newland/ Christopher Ward), who has to concede lots of weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.25 at Carlisle. We are a bit worried about the heavy going, but he is different class to these opponents and the trainer has always made it clear that he will be campaigned over hurdles before returning to Aintree to defend his title in early April. He is a decent hurdler and was runner-up here last year - he can go one better now.

Navan - betting forecast:
1. Race: Fort Smith - Grecian Tiger - Domesday Book
2. Race: Black Spot On - Shabra`s Bertolini - Lethal Weapon
3. Race: No More Heroes - Couleur France - Shantou Flyer
4. Race: Dara Tango - Lite Duties - Roll It Out
5. Race: Jarry D`honneur - Lots Of Memories - Champagne James
6. Race: Fever Pitch - Abbey Lane - Arzembouy Premier
7. Race: Ravished - The Doorman - Draycott Place
8. Race: Bordini - Attribution - Rock On The Moor