Friday, December 12, 2014

Cheltenham´s International Meeting

there has been a lot of rain in many parts of the U.K. and the going will be much softer than forecast; this also results in some non-runners, especially at Bangor and Doncaster where there are some very small fields as a result.

However the going for the first day of Chelternham´s International Meeting remains good to soft and this is far and away the best card of the day, even though by Cheltenham standards nothing really special. Main event is the Grade Three handicap chase over 3 1/ 4 miles at 15.10 CET. Hadrian´s Approach (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) has top weight here, but he has not run since winning the big April chase at Sandown and we cannot imagine his winning here. The two 11yo´s in the field look dangerous, especilly Charingworth (Kim Bailey/ HAA Bannister), who won here last time and goes really well for this jockey. Pigeon Island was third here last year and is now on an attractive weight, while Standing Ovation (David PIpe/ Tom Scudamore) and Cowards Close (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) both look capable of winning a big race off their current rating.

The cross country chase half an hour later sees numerous CD specialists in the line-up, including the 2,3,4 from thisd race last year as well as several who ran in the cross country at the Festival in March. It looks really tricky, but we suspect that the two Irish traiders, Big Shu (Peter Maher/ Paul Carberry) and Uncle Junior (Willie Mullins) will find it tough with their big weight, and our 3 against the field are Duke of Lucca (Phjilip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville) - especially if any more rain falls- and French challenger Pasquini Rouge.

Hobbs and Johnson are still in tremendous form and have another good chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.16 with the admirably tough German-bred Big Easy, although he is not so well handicapped now, while we also like Nico de Boinville´s chances in the handicap hurdle at 14.40 with Starluck, who is down in grade here. Best bet of the day could be Kings Palace (Pipe/ Scu) in the opening novice chase at 13.30, who was most impressive here on his chasing debut last month; he has to give weight to some useful prospects, but he think that he could be a real star.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sausalito Sunrise - Vivaldi Collonges - Return Spring
2. Race: Gallery Exhibition - Al Alfa - Hollow Blue Sky
3. Race: Lough Kent - Street Entertainer - Vintage Vinnie
4. Race: Hadrian`s Approach - Charingworth - Samstown
5. Race: Big Shu - Uncle Junior - Any Currency
6. Race: Big Easy - Ulzana`s Raid - Guiding George
7. Race: Some Plan - Padge - Clondaw Banker