Friday, December 26, 2014

Huge Boxing Day programme

The weather may be a bit miserable, but there is no danger to any of today´s 12 Boxing Day fixtures, which are headed by a wonderful card at Kempton with 3 Grade One races and the current ante-post favourites for both the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup in action. The King George VI Chase over 3 miles at 16.10 CET is the best race of the day and this classic event - won 5 times by Kauto Star for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh and previously by such stars as Desert Orchid- has attracted its strongest field in years, including the first 4 from last year: Silviniaco Conti (Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), Cue Card (Colin Tizzard/ Daryl Jacob) (also 5th the previous year), Al Ferof (Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) as well as Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), who was pulled up. Cheltenham favourite Silviniaco Conti also won the Betfair Chase this year, beating Menorah, Dynaste and Cue Card, and he is the logical winner here, although if the rain stays away, we expect Cue Card to be a big danger this time. The fly in the ointment could be Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). A top novice hurdler and Cheltenham winner, he is also going the right way over fences and was just touched off in the Arkle this year. The problem here is that he has never run beyond 2 1/2 miles; he is bred to stay and connections obviously expect him to, but we would rather see it first and he is taking on real specialists here.

Mullins´ and Walsh´s big hope today is clearly Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at 15.35. He is unbeaten in 7 starts, was last season´s top novice and is expected to go right to the top. He is clear favourite for Cheltenham and if he wins today, will start at a very short price there. He will also be at a ridiculous price today and we would rather oppose him. We have always liked German-bred Irving (Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and think we would have beaten Purple Bay (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy) at Wincanton but for falling at the last. Nicky Henderson has won this race repeatedly and now saddles Sign of a Victory (Barry Geraghty), who is up in grade after winning his last 3 races but looks well worth a try in this company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arzal - Zip Top - Bringithomeminty
2. Race: Katgary - Stellar Notion - Generous Ransom
3. Race: Virak - Sausalito Sunrise - Carraig Mor
4. Race: Irving - Sign Of A Victory - Faugheen
5. Race: Al Ferof - Menorah - Dynaste
6. Race: Daveron - Go West Young Man - Kilmurvy