strong card at Ascot

an excellent Saturday card at Ascot with some very competiive handicaps as well as the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.25. Zarkandar (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) is the obvious favourite here, having beaten top French hurdler Gemix last time and finished third in the French Champion Hurdle over this trip in the summer. However his best form is at Auteuil and Cheltenham, both left-handed tracks, and we shall take him on at right-handed Ascot with Nick Williams´ two runners, Aubusson (Lizzie Kelly) and Reve de Sivola (Daryl Jacob); the latter is inconsistent but saves his best form for this race, which he was won for the past 2 years, while Aubusson is in tremendous form and goes really well for this young lady rider. There are only 5 runners here, as there are in the graduation chase at 14.15, in which we take course specialist Puffin Billy (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) - 4 from 4 at Ascot!- to beat the likely favourite Irish Saint (Nicholls/ ST-D) who may find this trip on the far side.

The other 4 races are all handicaps and all look very tricky. The big betting race is the Ladbroke, a 2 miles hurdle handicap at 16.30, with 18 runners, in which Activial (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) has been heavily backed; his team is in great form, but we are always cautious with 4yo´s in such events and prefer to go for runners with more experience. Garde la Victoire (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien) made most of the running to win at Cheltenham last time, but both third-placed Clondaw Warrior (Willie Mullins/ David Casey), one of 3 Irish runners, and especially Pine Creek (John Ferguson/ S T-D), a close 5th. meet him on better terms now. Consistent Bayan (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) could be the best of the Irish, while Cool Macavity (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), while Shelford (Dan and Harry Skelton) has done nothing wrong so far over hurdles and Comes on every short lost. The Skeltons also have a chance in the opening handicap hurdle at 13.45 with Rascal. The 3 mile handicap chase at 16.00 has some classy performers, including Houblon Des Obeaux (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who finished runner-up in the Hennessy; that was good form, but he will need to do even better to win here off this weight. We prefer the lightweights Ardkilly Witness (Dr. Newland/ Tom Scudamore) and Polisky (Nicholls/ Sean Bowen), who is out of the handicap but still has good prospects on our reading of the form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rascal - The Tourard Man - Spookydooky
2. Race: Puffin Billy - Thomas Crapper - Drop Out Joe
3. Race: Lancetto - Malibu Sun - Ulck du Lin
4. Race: Zarkandar - Medinas - Reve De Sivola
5. Race: The Young Master - Houblon Des Obeaux - Sound Investment
6. Race: Activial - Shelford - Clondaw Warrior