Thursday, December 04, 2014

5 meetings today

four jumps cards this afternoon, plus an all-weather twilight meeting at Kempton, and with the weather improving and the ground drying out, there are some bigger fields today, especially at the Irish meeting at Clonmel. However most of the races are of low standard and probably the best card is at Wincanton, where there are two very competitive handicaps. Buck´s Bond (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) attempts to repeat his 2013 victory in the chase over 3 miles+ at 15.15 CET and has an obvious chance for the top local trainer. Top-weight Silver Commander (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) is having his first start for this in-form stable but is probably best watched after a year off, while ex-French Ziga Boy (Alan King/ Tom Bellamy) must also be considered after 3 relatively meaningless starts in the U.K. Half an hour later they go 2 miles over hurdles in another very tricky race. Ronaldinho (King/ Noel fehily) and Canadian Diamond (Bremndan Powell/ James Banks) could both be nicely handicapped now after a long losing run, but neither seems completely reliable and we expect the race to lie between Rayvin Black (Oliver Sherwood/ Thomas Garner), who made a good comeback after a year off, and Minella Definitely (Neil Mulholland/ Mikey Hamill); Connections seem to have found the key to the latter, who is much improved this season and we think that he can complete the hat-trick.
Mulholland also runs a hat-trick seeker at Leicester, Ballydague Lady (Martin McIntyre) who runs at 16.20 after winning twice in the past 8 days; she is bound to take a steep hike in the weights. so it makes sense to run her again so quickly under a fixed penalty, as she appears very well handicapped fort this race. main opposition should come from Easy Beasy (Warren Greatrex/ Gavin Sheehan), who was still going well in the lead when falling 3 out last time. Greatrex and Sheehan start the day at Market Rasen, where they have fancied runners in the first 2 races - Blue Atlantic at 13.20 and Warrantor half an hour later. Both are penalised for winning last time and are possibly vulnerable, so we prefer Pain au Chocolat (King/ Denis O´Regan) and Weststreet (Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sportsreport - Pod - Fuse Wire
2. Race: Black Narcissus - Kilronan High - Ice Tres
3. Race: Muckle Roe - Polamco - Comte D`anjou
4. Race: Buck`s Bond - Lily Waugh - Silver Commander
5. Race: Minella Definitely - Powerful Action - Rayvin Black
6. Race: Ray Diamond - Quite By Chance - Champagne N Caviar
7. Race: Ivor`s Queen - Flashyfrank - Do We Like Him