Thursday, December 18, 2014

4 poor meetings today

back to very mediocre sport today and once again there is a tiny field in the best race of the day. That is the graduation chase at 14.50 CET at Exeter with only 3 runners, all of whom were quite useful hurdlers. Brick Red (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) is the only one to have run this season, when sixth in a good race at Ascot, and that might give him an advantage. Mr.Mole (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) made all the running when winning at Newton Abbot in April, but faces better opposition now. The Queen´s Open Hearted (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) was beaten a long way when runner-up at Newbury a year ago, but the winner that day is smart and as he gets 7 lbs from the other two, he is our selection. Others we like here are Midnight Belle (Tom Syonds/ Felix de Giles), who has top weight in the handicap chase at 15.20; he won 5 races over hurdles and now seems to be finding his way over fences. And another top weight, Trickaway (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson)half an hour later; he made all the running to win easily iast time and can defy a 9 lbs rise in the weights. Another one up in the weights is Bredon Hill Lad (Sue and Lucy Gardner) who won twice in November, including this CD, and can complete the hat-trick at 16.50.

At Towcester, Kilcora Fort (Noel Williams/ James Banks) should win the novice hurdle at 14.40; his latest second place reads very well in the context of this race; St Johns Point (Charlie Longsdon/ Jason Maguire) looks the main - and probaby only- danger.

Betting forecast Exeter:
1. Race: Winter Walk - Nitrogen - Onderun
2. Race: Lochnagar - Pull The Chord - Shammick Boy
3. Race: Open Hearted - Mr Mole - Brick Red
4. Race: Midnight Belle - Alder Mairi - Definitely Better
5. Race: Trickaway - The Happy Warrior - Judge Davis
6. Race: Miss Estela - Queen`s Star - Leaderofthedance
7. Race: Bredon Hill Lad - Unefille De Guye - The Kvilleken