Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Newbury and Ludlow

there is N.H. racing this afternoon at Newbury and Ludlow, and the sport on offer - while not up to Saturday standards- is certainly much better than for the past couple of days, and the fields bigger and more competitive as well. However there are only 4 runners in the best race, the graduation chase over 3 miles at 15.15 CET at Newbury, and these races continue to be a problem. Today´s race should lie between Easter Day (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and Walkon (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), both having their first race of the season. The former won twice last December, while the latter last ran in the Grand National, where he was pulled up. Walkon has also the higher rating and is much more experienced over fences - threy were both smart hurdlers - and is just preferred this time. Jonjo O´Neill has not really hit top form yet, but we still think that his Communicator (Tony McCoy) is the best bet of the day in the maiden hurdle at 14.10. Previously trained by Andrew Balding, his only run over hurdles was actually in this race last year when he finished runner-up in a huge field; since then he has run some good races in top staying handicaps on the flat, but if he can repeat his 2013 performance, he should beat these opponents, the best of whom is probably Beast of Burden (Rebecca Curtis/ Davy Russell), an easy bumper winner. We are also interested to see how Gevrey Chambertin (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) gets on in the handicap chase at 13.40. This brother to the very smart Grands Crus has not lived up to expectations so far, but is now running in first time blinkers and has also been dropped in the ratings to a favourable mark.
Several of the top jumps jockeys are in action at Ludlow, among them Barry Geraghty and Richard Johnson. Both have some good rides and we expect Johnson to come out on top with German-bred Neck or Nothing at 13.20 and Tara Mist at 16.00 with Geraghty riding the main danger in both races.

There is also all-weather flat racing today at Lingfield and Kempton (late start). Some jockeys will be riding at both, e.g. Jamie Spencer who partners Master of Irony in the 2yo maiden at Lingfield at 14.30 and Hurricane Alert in a similar race at 17.40 at Kempton; both are trained by Ralph Beckett and owned by Qatar Racing.
.later: Hurricane Alert is a non-runner!

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Blue Atlantic - Jalingo - Winner Massagot
2. Race: Minella On Line - Kaki De La Pree - Oscar Fortune
3. Race: Beast Of Burden - Communicator - Hannah Just Hannah
4. Race: Greenlaw - Winston Churchill - Major Milborne
5. Race: Tinker Time - Easter Day - Masters Hill
6. Race: Jack Frost - Value At Risk - Vayland
7. Race: Miss Minx - Martha Mccandles - Amour D`or