Grade Three novice chase at Roscommon

the 3 U.K. meetings today are nothing special, but there is an interesting mixed meeting in Ireland, with 4 flat races followed by 3 chases and a bumper at Roscommon. The main event is the Grade Three novice chase over 2 miles at 17.35 CET, with some quite promising types entered. The Real Article (Edward O´Grady/ Barry Geraghty) was a Grade Two winner over hurdles and has already shown that he can jump fences, but has to concede weight all round. For that reason we just prefer Shadow Eile (Di Love/ Andrew McNamara), who was also smart over sticks, but fell last time after winning her first chase in good style. Toostrong represents the powerful Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh combination, but looks held by The Real Article on latest form, but Cootamundra (JA Barry/ RM Moran) could be a danger on his first outing since April; however this trip might be a bit short, as he had previously run in the Irish Grand National. Earlier Aidan and Joseph O´Brien might land a double on the flat with John Constable in the 2yo maiden at 15.35 and the 1 1/2 mile maiden an hour later with debutant Sardinia. Both are of course extremely well-bred, the former being a full brother to St. Leger winner Leading Light; he was a beaten favourite on his debut 8 days ago but is expected to step up on that form today.
At Bath, we think that Daylight (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) can defy top weight in the 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.30. He likes this track and the trainer - who also has a chance with Libeccio (Liam Keniry) in the 2yo race over 1 1 /4 miles at 15.30 - is in good form.
Another trainer in form is Mark Johnston and he can take the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.40 at Hamilton with the lightly-raced 3yo Dawn Calling (Joe Fanning); Barkston Ash (Eric Alston/ Jason JHart) could be the main danger.
They go over jumps at Newton Abbot and our best bet there is Oscar Magic (Nogel and Sam Twiston-Davies) in the novice hurdle at 15.20; the stable is going great guns and won this race last year with subsequent Cheltenham winner The New Man.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: John Constable - Go For Goal - Teoleena
2. Race: Harpist - Footprint - Foot Perfect
3. Race: Sardinia - Global Reach - Timikar
4. Race: Wyoyo - Little Arrows - Golden Silence
5. Race: The Real Article - Darwins Fox - Shadow Eile
6. Race: Dale Street - Theshowisover - Jakros
7. Race: Usuel Smurfer - Sir Vincent - Hunting Party
8. Race: Ange Balafre - Henry`s Girl - Knox`s Bridge

Top 2yo´s at the Curragh

We have had a whole series of good races for 2yo´s at Newmarket this week, and now the youngest generation also takes the spotlight at the Irish meeting at the Curragh today. 4 of the first 5 races are reserved for juveniles., including the main feature, the Group Two Beresford Stakes over a mile at 17.15 CET. This race has been won in the past by such giants as Nijinsky, Sea the Stars and St. Nicholas Abbey, but there appears to be nothing of that calibre in today´s field. Exogenesis (Ger Lyons/ Gary Carroll) is actually top-rated, having won 3 times and then running third in a Group Two here over 7 furlongs, but he is no champion. Aidan O´Brien has won this race 12 times and now saddles 2 of the 6 runners - Geoffrey Chaucer (Joseph O´Brien), who won his only start at odds-on back in July but probably did not beat much, and Oklahoma City (Seamus Heffernan), runner-up in a Group Three here in July. Johnny Murtagh, who can do no wrong at present, trains and rides Altruistic, also winner of his only start and up in grade. Geoffrey Chaucer, a half-brother to Shamardal, is probably the horse with the greatest potential and his trainer has a good line to top 2yo form, but this is not a race to bet on.

The O´Brien´s also have a Chance in the Group Three for 2yo fillies at 15.40 with Minorette, bit here we prefer My Titania (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and Tarfasha (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). This trip of 7 furlongs could be on the short side for Tarfasha, a half-sister to Group One performers Galileo Rock and Saddlers Rock, althoughWeld would of course love to win this race named after his father. However it would be nice to see Oxx take a good race with a son of Sea the Stars and racing in the same colours.

The O´Brien´s should certainly win the listed race for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 16.15 with the promising Guerre, while they have another good chance in the listed race over 2 miles at 18.20 with Eye of the Storm, a lightly-raced 3yo who is up in distance today, but can reverse recent form with Missunited (Mick Winters/ Herffernan), who is also a smart hurdler; so is Weld´ s Unaccompanied (Smullen) and she is our selection, although some rain would help.

It never ceases to amaze how poor are the cards put on in the U.K. on a Sunday, and today we just have two modest flat meetings at Epsom and Musselburgh. German-bred Broughton (Mark Johnston/ Neil Callan) at 16.55 and Omar Khayyam (Andrew Balding/ Oison Murphy) in the Apprentices Derby at 17.30 could possibly both repay each-way support at the Surrey track. Johnston could also do well in Scotland, with Light Rose (Joe Fanning) possibly his best chance at 16.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tested - Kaminari - Dance With Another
2. Race: Minorette - Tarfasha - My Titania
3. Race: Guerre - Shining Emerald - Boom The Groom
4. Race: Nero Emperor - Greek Canyon - Gathering Power
5. Race: Oklahoma City - Exogenesis - Geoffrey Chaucer
6. Race: Campanology - Regulation - Line Drummer
7. Race: Eye Of The Storm - Unaccompanied - Missunited

Cambridgeshire plus two Group Ones at Newmarket

Newmarket stages one of its best cards of the year today, with the Cambridgeshire Handicap over 9 furlongs at 16.50 CET as the main event, and two Group Ones as supporting features. With the ground getting firmer, there could be several non-runners and any horse needing cut will certainly be at a disadvantage. The Cambridgeshire is always one of the toughest races of the year and anything is possible.

There does not appear to be any draw bias, so the winner could come from anywhere. More in hope than expectation, we nominate 5 horses for the short list: Belgian Bill (George Baker/ Pat Cosgrave), Field of Dream (Jamie Osborne/Adam Kirby), Red Avenger (Ed Dunlop/ Gerald Mossé) and two trained by William Haggas: Fury (John Fahy) and Queensberry Rules (Ryan Moore), but there are still another 25+ runners to consider!

The Group One Cheveley Park Stakes at 15.35 is generally regarded as the best race of the year for 2yo fillies and French fillies have a good record here, so Vorda (Philippe Sogorb/ Olivier Peslier) is a good starting point; after winning her first 3 races, including the Robert Papin, she was an excellent runner-up to the smart No Nay Never in the Morny.On a line through Rizeena, runner-up in a Group One here yesterday, she holds Kiyoshi (Chatlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) and the main danger could be Princess Noor (Roger Varian/ Johnny Murtagh), who won well at Ascot last time and whose trainer and jockey are both in terrific form.

The Sun Chariot at 16.10 is also a Group One for fillies, but this time older ones over a mile. Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) looks the key runner here; she won the 1,000 Guneas over this CD, beating the reopposing Just the Judge (Hills/ Spencer), who went on to take the Irish equivalent, and then won at Royal Ascot. She can be excused her poor run at Goodwood, biut before that was just beaten in an infamous race for the Falmouth Stakes at the July Meeting here by Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick). Elusive Kate clearly hampered her badly and we think she should have got the race. She has her chance of revenge today and the fast ground should suit her ideally.

The card opens with the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile and this looks a match between Berkshire (Paul Cole/ Jim Crowley) and Somewhat (Mark Johnston/ Gerald Mossé). Berkshire has not run since his impressive Royal Ascot victory, when Somewhat was 8 lengths behind, but the latter has shown good form since and there should be little in it today.

There are some tricky handicaps later, and we fancy Ayaar (Mick Channon/ Ryan Moore) over 7 furlongs at 18.00; he has not won since Baden-Baden a year ago, but has come down in the weights and is running over his best distance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Somewhat - Washaar - Kingfisher
2. Race: Vorda - Kiyoshi - Joyeuse
3. Race: Sky Lantern - Elusive Kate - Integral
4. Race: Ascription - Queensberry Rules - Graphic
5. Race: Meeting Waters - Remember - Hala Hala
6. Race: Regal Dan - Flyman - Frontier Fighter
7. Race: Urban Dance - Marju`s Quest - Bantam

Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting: day two

The Cambridgeshire meeting continues atNewmarket with another excellent Card. The fields may be fairly small (with the exception of the Cambridgeshire consolation race at 18.00 with 26 runners) but they are all fiercely competive and difficult to sum up because of all the foreign form. Main feature is the Group One Shadwell Fillies Mile for 2yo fillies at 16.15, which has been won for the last 3 years by Godolphin runners.

Godolphin have entered two here - Ihtimal (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Sound Reflection (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona). With the Godolphin youngsters in fantastic form, both must be respected; on the form book, Ihtimal has the better chance after winning two Group races in excellent style, but the other, unbeaten in two lesser events, has been supplemented, so a strong performance is clearly expected. The one to beat is clearly Rizeena (Clive Brittain/ James Doyle), who is top-rated after winning the Irish equivalent race and is obviously one of the best European juvenile fillies.

Mike de Kock, who has horses in training here while being prepared for another attack on Meydan, has two strong entries today - Igugu (Pat Cosgrave) in the mile listed race for fillies at 15.10 and Soft Falling Rain (Paul Hanagan) in the Group Two over the same trip half an hour later. Both would be a certainty on their South African form, but there are reasons for being sceptical about today´s races. Igugu has had problems with acclimatising to Europe conditions and is also running over the wrong distance; she could well win, but for betting purproses we prefer Lanansaak (Roger Varian/ Dane O´Neill) and Purr Along (William Muir/ Frankie Dettori). Soft Falling Rain ran well on his British debut and should be much sharper today; but this stiff mile is not ideal. Penitent (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and Montiridge (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) probably need softer ground, so the two to concentrate on here could be oldtimer Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) and Glory Awaits (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer), who was after all runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas over this CD.

Foreign form must also be taken into account when considering the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 17.25. Gatewood (John Gosden/ William Buick) has spent most of the year in Australia, while Wigmore Hall (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) has shown his best form in Canada. Of these we just prefer Wigmore Hall, but perhaps Marco Botti´s consistent Renew, with his new stable jockey Martin Harley; is the most reliable option here.

The opening Group Three for 2yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 14.40 is another tricky race. André Fabre rarely has runners here so Miss France (Mickael Barzalona) is an obvious contender. Radiator (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) was most impressive when winning at Lingfield (on turf) by 15 lengths, but probably did not beat much. Midnite Angel (Richard Hannon/ Dettori) was runner-up to Ihtimal (runs in the Group One) here in August and has run well since, so we make her a narrow selection.

Fans of German breeding should have a look at Baarez (Varian/ Hanagan), who makes his debut in the 2yo maiden at 16.50. His dam is an own sister to Samum and Schiaparelli and comes from what is currently the most successful Family in Germany. He faces 15 opponents, the best of whom should be Yuften (William Haggas/ Kieren Fallon).

start of Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting

Newmarket´s Cambridgeshire Meeting, one of the best fixtures of the autumn, starts today with 3 days of high class racing on the Rowley course. Today´s card features a Group race and two listed events as well as what is usually highly informative 2yo maiden over a mile at 15.00 CET. 18 have been declared here, and whilke the 6 who have run are nothinhg Special, the 12 debutants include some extremely well-bred newcomers from top stables, including two runners out of Oaks winners -King´s Land (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Touch the Sky (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally). The former is out of German-bred Kazzia, who won the1,000 Guineas and Oaks for Godolphin, while the latter is by Sea the Stars out of Love Divine, already the dam of classic winner and sire Sixties Icon.
It is quite possible that in the long run they will prove much superior to the runners in the main event, the Somerville Tattersall Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.40. God Willing (Ed Dunlop/ Jamie Spencer) and Silent Bullet (bin Suroor/ de Sousa) are two unbeaten juveniles taking a leap in class and could be anything, but the solid choice here is Cable Bay (Charlie Hills/ Frankie Dettori), who has been running well in top races and was runner-up in a Group Two at Glorious Goodwood.
The fillies listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.10 could go to German-bred Phiz (John Gosden/ William Buick), who is out of a Surumu mare and was a good runner-up in the Park Hill at Doncaster a fortnight ago; Court Pastoral (Lady Cecil/ Queally), 4th in a similar race at Chantilly last time, is the obvious danger.
The other listed race is over 2 miles at 17.15 and the field includes some runners from the top staying races. This can also go to the Gosden/ Buick team with Caucus, who is penalised here but has some excellent form to his credit.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Touch The Sky - Carthage - King`s Land
2. Race: Safety Check - Stormardal - Newmarket Warrior
3. Race: Court Pastoral - Phiz - Songbird
4. Race: Cable Bay - Championship - Silent Bullet
5. Race: Caucus - Repeater - Statutory
6. Race: Mabait - Uppercut - Makafeh
7. Race: Reqaaba - Exceptionelle - Ladyship

Goodwood today

Goodwood today stages a surprisingly strong card for a Wednesday, with the listed race over 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET as the main feature. Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) is the class act here; he was the beaten favourite in the 2011 German Derby, but ran second in the St. Leger that year and most recently won the Goodwood Cup here at the big meeting at the end of August. However that race was over 2 miles and he has not run over a distance as short as this since his 2yo debut. We cannot believe that the Michael Owen-owned 5yo, who is being aimed at the Melbourne Cup, has a serious chance here, especially as he also has to concede weight all round. For us, the race lies between Grandeur (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) who had a terrible run last time in the Arlington Million, and the 3yo Sugar Boy (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), having his first race for new connections after finishing last, on much too firm ground, in the Irish Derby last time. Noseda also has a good chance of winning the 3yo handicap over 11 furlongs at 17.15 with top-weight Sweet Deal (William Buick), while another top weight who can score is Gospel Choir (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) at 16.05.
The card at Redcar is by comparison very weak, but Eland Ally (Tom Tate/ Andrew Elliott) is another top weight with a good chance in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.50, and we also like Nordic Quest (Ger Butler/ Freddie Tylicki) in the following 10 furlongs handicap; he is by Montjeu out of a German mare from a good family.There is jumps racing at Perth and the usual policy here is to back the Irish runners, as they have an extremely good record here, especially those trained by Gordon Elliott. In our view his best chance is Formal Bid (Jason Maguire) in the claiming hurdle at 16.25. German-bred Wind Shuffle (Lucinda Russell/ Graham Watters) is an interesting runner here; he seems to have lost form completely, but at his best would have definite possibilities off this weight.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arbaab - Travis Bickle - Idea
2. Race: Pack Leader - Sebastian Beach - Double Bluff
3. Race: Pearl Castle - Gospel Choir - Mister Impatience
4. Race: Grandeur - Brown Panther - Sugar Boy
5. Race: Deserted - Ice Pie - Angus Glens
6. Race: Slip Sliding Away - Dominium - Apricot Sky
7. Race: Never A Quarrel - Waseem Faris - Threave

5 poor meetings today

Once again, plenty of racing today but nothing of great interest. At Lingfield there are 8 races on polytrack, but the "best" are the two divisions of the mile handicap for 3yo´s. Absolutely Right (George Margarson/ Tom Queally) runs in the first divison at 16.30; he has not been out since winning here over 7 furlongs in December when trained by Richard Hannon., but would not need to be anything special to win here.

The second division half an hour later looks equally weak, although Rainbow Beauty(Ger Butler/ William Buick) would have a chance if turned out again after running third at Leicester yesterday; if not we would go for bottom-weight Landau (Silvester Kirk/ Sean Levey).

Easily the best race of the day is the 5 furlongs conditions race at 16.40 at Beverley, which has attracted a strong field for the prize-money, with several runners having decent form in group and listed races to their credit. Despite his bad draw, we go for Robin Bastiman´s oldtimer Borderlescott, who goes well here; Paul Mulrennan is down to ride but was injured in an nasty fall yesterday. Excelette (Bryan Smart/ Royston Ffrench) is well treated by the race conditions and looks the best alternative.

At Carlisle, the handicap over just short of 1 1/2 miles at 19.15 is the main event; this looks very tricky and our two main fancies are the only 3yo in the field Hunting Ground (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who found 1 3/4 miles too far last time, and bottom-weight Now My Sun (Karl Burke/ Tom Eaves).

There is jumps racing in the U.K. at Newton Abbot and in Ireland at Ballinrobe. We expect 3 German-breds to finish in the money in Devon - Quadrato (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) at 16.20, Pindar (Neil Mulholland/ Conor Shoemark) at 17.20 and Sadler´ s Star (Michael Blake/ Nick Scholfield) half an hour later.

There are large fields in Ireland and it looks a difficult card for punters. Nearer the Pin (Tony Martin/ Barry Geraghty) at 18.15 and Tom Horn (Noel Meade/ Mark Walsh) at 18.50 are our main hopes here.

4 poor meetings today

very uninspiring racing at all of today´s 4 meetings, even the Irish card at Tipperary is of only limted appeal despite some large fields. The best race here is the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.45 CET with runners from most of the top Irish stables. The lightly-raced 3yo´s Heirloom (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Convocate (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) could be the two likeliest candidates, although Vasanta Navaratri, moving up from a mile, is an interesting runner for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning.
The card at Hamilton is not at all punter-friendly with small fields in most of the races. The conditions race over 6 furlongs at 17.10 is the main event, with 6 runners, 3 of them 3yo´s and 3 older horses. Baileys Jubilee (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and El Manati (James Tate/ Luke Morris) were both useful juveniles last season who have been struggling to find their form this year, so we go with the older brigade and select Hopes n Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Barry McHugh).
The main feature on the all-weather at Kempton is also a 6 furlongs race - a handicap for 3yo´s at 17.20. Badr al Badoor (James Fanshawe/ William Buick) has won twice over CD this year and has an obvious chance, but we prefer Purcell (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who won at Chester last time and could still have improvement to come.
Balding can also take the sprint handicap at Leicester, this time over 5 furlongs, with New Fforest, partnered by the latest apprentice sensation Oisin Murphy; the 18-year-old won four races at Ayr on Saturday. Rylee Mooch (Richard Guest/ Joey Haynes) ran well at Ayr on Friday and looks the main danger in the toughest race of the day for punters.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kentra - Right Up My Street - Mindy
2. Race: Amygdala - Dimity - Diamond Stilettos
3. Race: Aru Cha Cha - Nakara - Invisible Flash
4. Race: Hail Shower - Dorothy Parker - Sword Of Light
5. Race: South Ring - Red All Star - Boughtforasong
6. Race: Heirloom - Vasanta Navaratri - Convocate
7. Race: A Star Is Born - Alkali - Teocht

group race in Ireland

as is so often the case on a Sunday, the cards in the U.K. today are very poor, and the best sport comes from Ireland, where there is a Group Three for fillies over 9 1/2 furlongs at 16.55 CET at Gowran Park. Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is the form choice here, but she has been kept very busy (this is her 9th start in 3 months) and she is penalised for winning a similar race over this distance at Leopardstown in July. Aloof (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) won this race last year at 12-1, while Caponata (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) was a hot favourite but ran badly. However we prefer the 3yo´s and go for British raider Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Johnny Murtagh), the form of whose listed win at Salisbury looks good enough in this context. We don´t fancy the Aidan O´Brien runner here, but he should certainly take the opening 2yo maiden at 14.55 with John Constable (Joseph O´Brien). This own brother to last week´s St. Leger winner Leading Light is making his debut here, but we don´t believe O´Brien would start him off unless he felt that he could win first time out.
The only flat racing in the U.K. is at Hamilton. Mark Johnston, who was born nearby and is in great form, always likes to have winners here and can land a double with Pigeon Pie at 125.20 and Discay at 17.50, both ridden by Joe Fanning, while Monakova (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) can defy a huge rise in the weights and complete a fourtimer in the fillies 6 furlongs handicap at 16.20.
Tjhere is N.H. racing at Plumpton and Uttoxeter, with AP McCoy likely to ride some winners at the latter track. However our main fancy over jumps is ex-German Lyssio (Jim Best/ Jamie Moore) in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 17.00 at Plumpton. Although he failed to live up to expectations on the flat for Peter Schiergen, this Ittlingen-bred has found his metier over hurdles, and although this is quite a decent race, still seems very nicely handicapped.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: John Constable - Cheeky Chappie - Abushamah
2. Race: Ava Star - Fine Cut - Odisseia
3. Race: Valley Queen - Maal - Elusive Gent
4. Race: New Regalia - Liberty`S Gift - Liberty To Rock
5. Race: Scintillula - Caponata - Mango Diva
6. Race: Carenza - Nymph - Teochrios
7. Race: Waver - Indian Icon - Protestant
8. Race: Like A Diamond - Brannigan`s Law - Wexford Opera

Newbury and Newmarket

Newbury has 3 group races on the card today, including the grandly-named Arc Trial over 11 furlongs at 14.50 CET. We cannot imagine that this race will have any bearing on the big race at Longchamp in a fortnight´s time, but it does supply the best bet of the day in ex-German Kassiano (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who looks a cut above this opposition. The Mill Reef Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.20 looks trickier with Richard Hannon saddling two live contenders in Anticipated (Richard Hughes) and Shamshon (Frankie Dettori). The latter looks the better prospect, having won both his starts in good style, but they were over 5 furlongs and over a furlong further we prefer Supplicant (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton). The different distance could also play a role in the 5 furlongs race at 16.30, as Irish sprinter Maarek (Barry Lalor/ Declan McDonogh) is probably better at 6, but he can still outclass this lot on his favoured soft ground. Our other fancy here is Voodoo Prince (Ed Dunlop/ Andrea Atzeni) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 15.55; he was just touched off at Doncaster last week over 1 172 miles, but we think that today´s distance will suit him better.
Main events at Newmarket are the two valuable sales races for 2yo´s, both with obvious favourites: Wedding Ring (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) in the fillies´ race at 15.30 and Jallotta (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) in the colts´ version at 16.05. Both have good form in group races to their credit and in theory they should both win. We also like German-bred Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Johnny Murtagh) in the 2 1/4 mile handiap at 16.40; the Lomitas gelding has top weight, but stays really well and we can see him running well in the Cesarewitch nrext month, for which this is the most important trial.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Storm Rider - Extremity - Magnus Maximus
2. Race: Kassiano - Camborne - Gifted Girl
3. Race: Shamshon - Anticipated - Figure Of Speech
4. Race: Disclaimer - Saxo Jack - Black Spirit
5. Race: Tickled Pink - York Glory - Kingsgate Native
6. Race: Malachim Mist - Meteoroid - Master Carpenter
7. Race: Exchequer - Kingston Hill - Keep Close
8. Race: Evident - Benoni - Glanely

Ayr Gold Cup

the Ayr Gold Cup at 16.50 CET is only a handicap, but it is worth almost 100,000 GBP to the winner and, despite various Group and listed races, is the top race today. With 26 runners (last year´s winner Captain Ramius has been withdrawn) it is one of the toughest races of the year for punters, but we shall try to make things easier by discarding all runners drawn less than 15; yesterday´s results showed clearly that horses drawn high had an advantage and we hope that the same holds true today.
No Scottish-trained runner has won Scotland´s top flat race in ages, but Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) will attempt to put this right and could well start favourite; he has however a stiff task under top-weight and is not certain to confirm the form with Mass Rally (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan), whom he beat by a head in a Newmarket Group Three in June. Mass Rally won the Silver Cup here last year and although not so well handicapped now must come on the short list. So must Hoof It (Mick Easterby/ Graham Gibbons), who won the Stewards Cup under top weight last year, although he would not want any more rain. We also like Khubala (Hugo Palmer/ Phillip Makin), not disgraced when 6th in the Goldene Peitsche last time. Red Dubawi (David Marnane/ Conor King) is an interesting Irish runner, while the dark horse is Duke of Firenze (Sir Michael Stoute/ Cathy Gannon), although he is arguably better over 5 furlongs.
The theoretical main event is the Group Three for 2yo fillies at 16.15. An Irish filly won the main juvenile race here yesterday and we expect Remember You (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) to follow suit, with Hoku (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley) and Valonia (Henry Candy/ Jamie Spencer) as the main dangers. There could be another Irish victory in the Silver Cup (the consolation race for the big handicap) at 15.40, as An Saighduir (Slattery/ Willie Lee), third here last year, must have a decent chance; Colonlel Mak (David Barron/ Gibbons) is a CD specialist who should go well, but is badly drawn, and we prefer Yeeoow (Karl Burke/ Joey Haynes), third to Sir Reginald (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) last week and now much better drawn.
The listed race over 10 furlongs at 15.05 is another tricky race. Sharestan ex-Aga Khan/ John Oxx, and now Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) is top-rated but has not run since the Dubai Carnival. We prefer First Mohican (Lady Cecil/Tom Queally) - who had no chance in a Deauville Group two last time - and Willie the Whipper (Anne Duffield/ Spencer), who was long regarded as a German Derby prospect this spring.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Braidley - Les Gar Gan - Light Weight
2. Race: First Mohican - Sharestan - Hajras
3. Race: Colonel Mak - Sir Reginald - Pearl Ice
4. Race: Remember You - Mecca`s Angel - Valonia
5. Race: Jack Dexter - Baccarat - Gabriel`s Lad
6. Race: Osteopathic Remedy - Two For Two - Brae Hill
7. Race: Laffan - Haaf A Sixpence - Frontier Fighter
8. Race: Cockney Sparrow - Eric The Grey - Jonny Delta

listed races at Ayr and Newbury

Ayr and Newbury both stage very strong cards tomorrow, but today´s racing at these tracks is also decent and both have a listed race as their main feature. The going will be soft everywhere today.
Two of the runners in Newbury´s 7 furlongs race at 17.50 CET are well known to German racegoers, as Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) won a Group Three in Munich earlier this year, while Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) ran third in the German 2,000 Guineas. We expect both to run well, but Arnold Lane has a penalty for that success, which makes life difficult, and we prefer Tawhid who has been running well enough in better company. Magic City (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) has won 4 of his last 5 starts, but is up in grade here and we think that the other two Godolphin runners, Firebeam (Mickael Barzalona) and Free Wheeling (James Doyle) could be the main dangers. Also at Newbury, we like the chances of Bonfire (Andrew Balding/ Hughes) in the conditions race at 16.05; he was regarded as a live Derby hope last year after winning the Dante, but then things went wrong, but in this class he must have a good chance. French Navy (Charlie Appleby/ Barzalona) is the obvious danger. If any more rain falls, that would improve the prospects of mud-loving Zafisio (Jo Hughes/ John Fahy) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.20; he is now extremely well handicapped, but must have it very soft.
The listed race at Ayr is for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.50, but there do not appear to be any stars in the field. On top of that, most of the form is on top of the ground, and conditions are very different today.Jo Hughes has another chance here with Lady Chantilly (Joe Fanning), but we are also interested in Irish raider Hurryupharriet (Willie McCreery/ Tom Eaves). We are not sure that German-bred oldtimer Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Neil Farley) will like going as soft as this, but he is certainly capable of winning the 2 mile + handicap at 16.25 if in the right mood. The big betting race of the day is the Ayr Bronze Cup over 6 furlongs at 17.00 (the Gold and Silver Cups are run tomorrow). It is essential to watch the earlier races over sprint distances to see where the winners are coming from, but if the stands side is favoured (high numbers) then we would like Circuitous (Keith Dalgleish/ Eaves) and Bondi Beach Boy (Jim Turner/ Jordan Nason), and if the small numbers have an Advantage, Farlow (Richard Fahey/ Pauil Hanagan) and West Leake Hare (David and Adrian Nicholls), but the race is a lottery and probably best left alone.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hesbaan - Stomp - Strategic Force
2. Race: Cape Wrath - Dark Leopard - Pipe Dream
3. Race: Continuum - All The Aces - Goodwood Mirage
4. Race: Tales Of Grimm - French Navy - Bonfire
5. Race: Red Galileo - What About Carlo - Pupil
6. Race: Lady Lara - Water Queen - Sweet Acclaim
7. Race: Tawhid - Free Wheeling - Arnold Lane
8. Race: Hunting Rights - Border Legend - Broadway Duchess

mainly handicaps

plenty of racing today. but mainly at handicap level. The Yarmouth meeting goes into its final day, but the main event, a handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 17.20 CET, has cut up disappointingly; with 3 non-runners, only 5 now go to post. Montefeltro (Brian Ellison/ Robert Tart) will probably start a warm favourite here, as he is not penalised for easily winning with this jockey last time, but we shall take a chance with Lyric Street (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore), out of German Champion Elle Danzig, who has not run since June but is now down in the weights.
Another runner with a German pedigree is Collodi (Roger Curtis/ Martin Harley), who runs in the mile handicap at 16.00 at Pontefract; he was trained by Peterr Schiergen until recently and seems to have got in here with a very favourable weight. However the one we like best here is CD specialist Misplaced Fortune (Nigel Tinkler/ Kevin Stott) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.00; the 8yo mare won this race last year off a higher rating and can score again.
Ayr begins its big 3 day meeting, the biggest Scottish fixture of the year, with a relatively weak card today. The best race is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.40; this looks wide open, although King of the Danes (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) will probably start favourite after two easy wins; however they were on firm going and on this much softer ground we prefer Spirit of the Law (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner).
Arguably the best card of the day is in Ireland, where the Listowel Harvest Festival goes into its fourth day. Some horses are already running for the second time at the meeting, and we would not be surprised to see Fulminata (Jim Bolger/ KK Hennessy) score under a 5 lbs penalty at 16.35 after his easy win here on Monday. Ibsen (JJ Murphy/ Ben Curtis) was unplaced over hurdles here on Tuesday, but could run well on the flat at 17.05,. Trainer Tony Martin can land a double in the N.H. races with Pires (Paul Townend) at 18.05, very well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase rating, and Victrix Gale (Ruby Walsh) half an hour later.

Betting forecast Yarmouth:
1. Race: Wednaan - Al Senad - Exceeding Power
2. Race: Mount Logan - Istikshaf - Deadly Approach
3. Race: Ocean Tempest - Shesastar - Azrur
4. Race: Istimraar - Boadicee - Gender Agenda
5. Race: Montefeltro - Lyric Street - Hi Note
6. Race: Nullarbor Sky - Shalwa - I Say
7. Race: Sedenoo - Rocksilla - Baddilini

Listed races today

Surprisingly for a Wednesday, there are listed races at 3 meetings today. At Sandown, where the going is very soft to heavy, we have the mile race at 16.55 CET, which should mainly concern the 7yo Penitent (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and the 3yo Wentworth (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who won the big mile handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. That was a good effort but we still prefer the older horse who has been running respectably in much better company - his last 12 runs have all been in group races. Penitent loves this ground and is the clear choice, although Bana Wu (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) as a daughter of Shirocco should also handle it and looks well treated at the weights. Earlier Penitent´s half-brother Solemn (Milton Bradley/ Adam Kirby) could also run well in the 5 furlongs handicap whicjh opens the card at 15.20.

Yarmouth´s big meeting continues with the listed race for fillies over 10 furlongs at 16.10 as the main feature. Semayyel (Clive Brittain/ Ted Durcan) was an easy winner of this last year at odds of 125-1, but this field looks much stronger and she is held by Hippy Hippy Shake (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) on Salisbury form. Rock Choir (William Haggas/ Andrea Atzeni) also ran well in that race and is our tentative selectipn, with Shuruq (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ahmed Ajtebi) another possibility in a very tricky race, while Ribbons (James Fanshawe/ Freddie Tylicki) is up in class after winning all her 4 starts so far. A high draw is a big advantage here in sprint races, so we hope that oldtimer Judge ´n´Jury (Ron Harris/ Frankie Dettori), drawn 12 of 12, can take the 5 furlongs handicap here at 17.55 at the main expense of Jamaican Bolt (Geoff Oldroyd/ William Twiston-Davies).

The Irish meeting at Listowel continues today with a strong card, headed by the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.25, which should go to the lightly-raced 3yo Eye of the Storm (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien). However the top event here, and the richest race of the day, is the Kerry National, a handicap chase over 3 miles at 18.10. Many of these ran in the Galway Plate, which was won by Carlingford Lough (John Kiely/ AP McCoy); he was a heavily-backed favourite that day but is by no means certain to confirm the form at the revised weights. He is one of 7 runners owned by JP McManus, and it is possible that German-bred Shot From The Hip (Edward O´Grady/ Mark Walsh) could be the best of them, but we shall take a chance on Romanesco (Gordon Elliott/ Conor O´Farrell), whose trainer had 2 winners here yesterday.

5 more poor meetings today

Mainly low-level racing a today´s 5 meetings. Yarmouth begins its main meeting of the year with a disappointing card and some small fields. Only 5 run in the 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 17.00, the richest race of the day in the U.K. Thomas Hobson (John Gosden/ William Buick) is the likely favourite here, having won his last 2 races but he has gone up a lot in the weights and in unproven at the distance.

We prefer top-weight Royal Skies (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon), who has good form to his credit over this trip. At Thirsk, German-bred Fieldgunner Kirkup (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons) is our selection for the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.40. He will like the soft going and usually runs well here - in fact he won this race last year. Our Boy Jack (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner) has not won for ages, but is now nicely handicapped and looks a big threat.

Tight Fit (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) has been in good form this summer and won 3 of his last 4 starts; he has top-weight in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.50 at Chepstow. He could win again, but we also´like Secret Beau (David Evans/ DJ Bates), who was claimed out of Ralph Beckett´ s stable and can get some of the money back today.

There is N.H. racing today at Stratford when Robert Thornton makes his long-awaited comeback from injury. He partners top-weight Letsby Avenue (Alan King) in the handicap hurdle at 19.05. We wish him well, but do not expect him to win today; our preference is for Topolski (David Arbuthnot/ Tom Cannon), who is fit from the flat but very well handicapped on his old form. German-bred Dawn Commander (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) could be the main danger.

In Ireland, the Harvest Festival Meeting at Listowel continues with another mixed card. With the O´Brien 2yo´s winning all over the place, we expect Masai to land the odds in the opening race at 16.05, while Dermot Weld can take the maiden for 2yo fillies at 17.05 with the well-bred debutant Lanyard (Pat Smullen). Sizing Symphony (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), a smart novice hurdler in 2011, made a good comeback over fences recently and can take the novice chase at 18.10. The 2 mile handicap hurdle at 18.45 is the most valuable race of the day and looks very tricky. Willie Mullins saddles the 3 top-weights and Call me Bubbles (Ruby Walsh) could possibly come out best.

4 poor meetings today

after the excellent racing at the weekend, it´s back to normal today with 4 poor cards. The best racing comes from the Irish meeting at Listowel, where there are 4 flat races followed by two over hurdles and a bumper. the 2yo mile handicap at 18.15 CET Looks verty open, with 7 of the 8 runners having won last time out. Possibly the unbeaten Mekong River from the in-form team of Aidan and Joseph O´Brien will come out on top, but the 2 David Wachman runners Hidden Oasis (Fran Berry) and Ruler of France (Wayne Lordan) certainly look dangerous. There are large fields in the N.H. events, but Ruby Walsh can possibly take both hurdles races on Willie Mullins´ Chiltern Hills at 18.45 and Tony Martin´s Galloping Gander half an hour later, while sister Katie can win the bumper on Tom Taaffe´s Casey Ryback.
Another in-form team is Newmarket trainer Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni, and they can take the 1 1/2 mile handicap at Brighton at 15.50 with Panettone. The best race here is the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.20. Sprint specialist Robert Cowell has two runners and we prefer Cardinal (Steve Drowne), best known as an all-weather specialist but who also goes well on the soft and looking well handicapped here.
At Musselburgh, Dr Irv (Philip Kirby/ Declan Cannon), who has been in great form since being switched to 2 miles, can win again over this trip at 16.10. He has won 3 of his last 4 races, including CD, and all with this jockey aboard. Strictly speaking, Aleksander (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) is now weighted to beat him this time, but we still prefer the much more reliable top-weight.
The a.w. card at Wolverhampton looks pretty dreadful, with all 8 races class 5 or 6. Perhaps Ambitious Boy, top-weight in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.30, can score for local trainer Tony Hollinshead and Danny Tudhope.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Chroussa - Sophie`s World - Komitoe
2. Race: Peggy`s Leg - Blistering Dancer - Tough Lady
3. Race: Pastiches - Shes No Joke - Fulminata
4. Race: Mekong River - Hidden Oasis - Ruler Of France
5. Race: Chiltern Hills - Tropical Three - Little King Robin
6. Race: Fair Dilemma - Galloping Gander - Pink Coat
7. Race: Casey Ryback - No Cash Flow - Sukiyaki

Irish St. Leger at the Curragh

the two U.K. meetings today are not really worth bothering with, we shall concentrate on the big Irish Meeting at the Curragh, featuring the Irish St. Leger at 16.50 CET. The big difference between this race and the proper version run yesterday at Doncaster, as that the Irish race is open to older horses - and the only 3yo entered, Galileo Rock, won´t run as he ran third at Doncaster yesterday. So we have the ridiculous state of affairs, a "classic" without a single 3yo runner!

Royal Diamomnd, now trained and ridden by Johnny Murtagh, won the race last year and has an obvious chance of landing the double, especially with Murtagh in great form, and he seems very confident. He also won the main trial for this from Voleuse de Coeurs (Dermot Weld/ Chris Hayes) and Ernest Hemingway (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien); they meet on the same terms but it was quite a tight finish, and Ernest Hemingway defeated him earlier in the season, so there is not much between them. It would certainly be a great achievement for O´Brien, who also saddles Chamonix (Seamus Heffernan) if he could win this after yesterday´s Doncaster success, but there are other dangers lurking.

One is Ahzeemah (Saeed in Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who won the Lonsdale Cup last time. Then there is the globetrotting Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Gerald Mossé) who is being aimed at the Melbourne Cup (as is Royal Diamond). Saddler´s Rock (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh), winner of the Goodwood Cup last year and a 3/4 brother to Galileo Rock, would be a popular winner as the Oxx stable has been badly affected by a virus and has hardly had a winner all year; however this trip is probably too short, and we would rather wait to see some revival in the stable´s fortunes. The one we like best is Dermot Weld´s other runner Pale Mimosa, and as she is the choice of stable Jockey Pat Smullen, the stable probably think that she can hold Royal Diamond. She has been brought along very carefully and her only 2013 start was when easily winning the Saval Beg 3 months ago, form which certainly gives her a chance here.

The other Group One on the card is the National Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile at 17.25. Toormore (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is the only British runner and the obvious form choice; he has won both is starts and at Goodwood defeated yesterday´s Group two winner Outstrip. However Aidan O´Brien has 3 riunners here and must fancy his chances; Joseph rides Giovanni Boldoni, who made his debut a week ago on the all-weather at Dundalk but has been entered in all the top races. Even more unconventional isJim Bolger, who runs his debutant Fiscal Focus (Kevin Manning); Bolger could probably walk on water if he felt so inclined, and this is definitely a race to watch, but not to bet on.

Whatever happens in these races, the O´Brien´s should not go home empty-handed as Darwin - who ran in the U.S. last year- looks a good thing to win the Group Three Solonaway Stakes at 16.15, and the very promising Dazzling can take the listed race for 2yo fillies an hour earlier.

Rest of today´s racing

The rest of the Doncaster card is also very strong, although the opening Group Two Champagne Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.05 CET has cut up badly and only 4 now go to post. All 4 are useful, but with the Godolphin juveniles now running so well, we confidently expect Outstrip (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) to score here; he was a close second at Goodwood last time and that form is the best in the race.

The other Group Two event, the Park Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.15 looks much more open, although Aljamaheer (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) and Gregorian (John Gosden/ William Buick) appear to stand out; they were second and third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, one of the strongest mile races of the season. We also hope that Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott)- a winner this year at Munich- and Caspar Netscher (David Simcock/ Shane Kelly), winner of last year´s German 2,000 Guineas, run well, while the lightly-weighted 3yo filly Viztoria (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan) looks dangerous and will love the soft ground.

The big betting race is the Portland Handicap over 5 1/ 2 furlongs at 15.40 always one of the hottest races of the year. Doc Hay (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) won it in 2012 and has a good chance of doubling up, but we also like his stable companion Elusivity (Kieren Fallon). Top-weight Definightly (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) is a soft-ground specialist and must go on every short list, as does Racy (Brian Ellison/ Ryan Moore); all these are drawn high, and it certainly seems that high numbers (the stands side) have a definite advantage here.

The big day at the Curragh is tomorrow, but today´s card is also decent and features the Group Two Blandford Stakes over 10 furlongs for fillies and mares at 16.35. British raiders usually do well here, and Shirocco Star (Hughie Morrison/ Chris Hayes), Hot Snap (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Purr Along (Willie Muir/ Frankie Dettori) could well take the first 3 places. Princess Highway (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Alive Alive Oh (Tommy Stack/ Fran Berry) look best of the home team, but we go for Hot Snap, rather unlucky at Goodwood last time in the Nassau Stakes.

At Chester, the listed race over an extended 1 1/2 miles at 15.55 has attracted a strong field. Cameron Highland (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) is penalised for winning a similar race last time, and we are not sure if he can concede the weight to Allied Powers (Michael Bell/ Steve Donohoe) and Tac de Boistron (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), both of whom will go well on this ground. The last-named had no chance in the Melbourne Cup last year, but his previous French form looks good enough for this.

St. Leger at Doncaster

The St. Leger is the world´s oldest classic and has a very open look about it this time. The clash with the Irish version, to be run tomorrow, is of course ridiculous, but they are very different races: the Doncaster race is a true classic, in that only 3yo´s are allowed to run, while the Irish version is open to all ages and in fact no 3yo´s run at all tomorrow. Irish trainer David Wachman has confirmed that his Galileo Rock (Wayne Lordan) will run at Doncaster; he was the only 3yo still left in at the Curragh.

Galileo Rock is arguably the form choiuce, having finished third in the Derby - inches behind Libertarian (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick)- and runner-up in the Irish Derby, where Llbertarian and Ralston Road (Pat Shanahan/ Tagdh O´Shea) were well behind. The going will be much softer now, but the form still looks solid. In recent years three stables have totally dominated the St. Leger - Godolphin, now represented by Libertarian, Cap O´Rushes (Mickael Barzalona) and Secret Number (Silvestre de Sousa), Aidan O´Brien, who has two runners Foundry (Ryan Moore) and Leading Light (Joseph O´Brien), and John Gosden who saddles just the one runner, the Monsun colt Excess Knowledge (James Doyle). We expect these to be to the fore again and our tentative suggestion is Excess Knowledge, who looked very unlucky when just beaten at Goodwood by Cap O´Rushes.

York´s Great Voltigeur Stakes is traditionally the best St. Leger Trial and Foundry ran a great race when runner-up there on only his second career start; obviously he has to come into calculations and we just prefer him to stable companion Leading Light, who has won his last 4 races, including the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot.

The St. Leger is a very poor race for favourites, so punters should tread warily. It is an even worse race for filles - none has won for over 20 years- so we reluctantly discard Oaks winner Talent (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) even though she has a good chance on ratings.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Outstrip - The Grey Gatsby - Cable Bay
2. Race: Bogart - Steps - Doc Hay
3. Race: Aljamaaheer - Gregorian - Viztoria
4. Race: Excess Knowledge - Leading Light - Galileo Rock
5. Race: Greatwood - Voodoo Prince - Bishop Roko
6. Race: Extra Noble - Fire Fighting - Showpiece
7. Race: Ascription - Gabrial The Great - Pied A Terre

Doncaster St.Leger meeting - third day

an excellent card for the third day of Doncaster´s St. Leger Meeting with 3 Group Two races; unfortunately the fields are quite small and only one race has more than 8 runners. The going is officially good to soft but it appears to ride softer than that, and there are quite a few non-runners.
The card opens with the Group Two Flying Childers for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 14.40 CET. This looks quite tricky, but we like Windfire (David Brown/ Jamie Spencer) who is very speedy and found 6 furlongs too far last time. She has never run on ground as soft as this - but neither have the others. Ambiance (Mick Channon/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Extortionist (Olly Stevens/ Mickael Barzalona) look the main dangers.
There are some familiar faces in the Doncaster Cup over 2 1/4 miles at 15.40. In fact 4 of the 7 runners ran in the race last year, in which Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) just scored by a neck from High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ James Doyle), with Repeater (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ de Sousa) further back. It would come as no surprise to see the same result today although Colour Vision, who won the Gold Cup last year but has been very inconsistent since, would be a clear threat at this best. However Biographer (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) could be the main threat to the favourites as he is guaranteed to like this ground and is quite likely to be suited by this extreme distance.
The May Hill Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile at 16.15 has been dominated by Godolphin in recent years and we expect the Maktoum stable to score again, with Ihtimal (bin Suroor/ de Sousa), easy winner of the Sweet Solera last time, just preferred to Majeyda (Charlie Appleby/ Barzalona), a narrow winner from Qawaasem (Charlie Hills/ Paul Hanagan) at Sandown in July.
The 6 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.25 is the best betting race of the day, with bookies currently going 7-1 the field. Shropshire (Charlie Hills/ Robert Winston) is the class act here having run well in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and other top sprint handicaps, but he has a huge weight and we would rather look elsewhere. Our 3 against the field are Dubawi Sound (David Brown/ Spencer), who should be ideally suited by this trip, Bertiewhittle (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons), whose trainer and jockey had a double here yesterday, and Sir Reginald (Richard Fahey/ Hanagan), who seems to be coming back to form and is now well handicapped.
After her bad fall yesterday, Hayley Turner will not be riding today, but she is out of hospital and has not suffered any serious damage. Her best chance would have been on James Fanshawe´s Shwaiman at 15.10, who will now be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and is our selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wind Fire - Extortionist - Thunder Strike
2. Race: Shwaiman - Tropical Beat - Pether`s Moon
3. Race: Times Up - High Jinx - Biographer
4. Race: Ihtimal - Majeyda - Qawaasem
5. Race: Be Ready - Barley Mow - Voice Of A Leader
6. Race: Elusive Flame - Shropshire - Sir Reginald
7. Race: Zain Eagle - Morocco - Stellar Express

ladies day at Doncaster

the Doncaster St.Leger Meeting continues today with Ladies Day and the two main events both confined to fillies. The going is good to soft and probably much softer than it has been at any time in England for the past 3 months, so punters should enter this factor into their calculations.
This should be to the advantage of The Lark (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), favourite for the top race of the day, the Park Hill Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 16.15 CET and also known as the fillies´ St.Leger. She was below form in France last time, but has had a nice break since and her form when a staying-on third in the Oaks is clearly the best in the race. The danger could be lightly-raced Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ Hayley Turner) who has only ever run 4 times - winning the last 3 - but she is taking quite a leap in class here, as is German-bred Phiz (John Gosden/ William Buick) who is even more lightly-raced and won a maiden last time. There are question marks over most of the others and we shall be surprised if The Lark (who also has an excellent pedigree) does not score here.
The other group race is the Sceptre Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.10. Maureen ( Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is down in class and distance here, but has the best form in the field, as she has been mixing it - without much success-in top company. Annecdote (Johnny Portman/ Richard Kingscote) won a similar race at Goodwood -on much faster going- but is not certain to confirm the form with runner-up Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ Graham Lee), who is now 3 lbs better off; Nargys (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) was well behind that day, but we expect her to run much better today, and her best form of last year puts her in with a chance.
Easily the most valuable race of the day is the sales race over furlongs for 2yo´s at 15.40 and with so much money on offer it is no surprise to see a huge field. Several trainers go mob-handed into such events, and Richard Hannon has 4 runners and Richard Fahey and Brian Meehan three each. Best of these could be Hannon´s Coulsty (the choice of stable jockey Hughes), who clearly holds Suzi´ s Connoisseur (Mark Johnston /Joe Fanning) on York form, but we were quite taken with the latter´s performance at Baden-Baden and expect him to run well here.
The 2yo mile maiden at 16.50 looks interesting with some very well-bred runners. Clear bdest on form is Alpine Retreat (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona), runner-up at Kempton on her only start so far, but Godolphin also have the debutant Fast Delivery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) engaged,, who is out of German Oaks winner Rosenreihe.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Les Gar Gan - Ticking Katie - Gown
2. Race: Maureen - Winning Express - Annecdote
3. Race: Coulsty - Ben Hall - Azagal
4. Race: The Lark - Seal Of Approval - Alta Lilea
5. Race: Alpine Retreat - Hard Divorce - Fast Delivery
6. Race: If So - Dark Castle - Fairway To Heaven
7. Race: Greek War - Conduct - Tha`ir

start of Doncaster St.Leger meeting

the Doncaster St. Leger meeting starts today and although today´s is probably the weakest card of the fixture (which goes on until Saturday) it is still much better than the usual midweek fare.
Main event is the listed Scarborough Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET, where most of the runners have met before , either in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood or the Beverley Bullet more recently. Clear form choice is Justineo (Roger Varian/ William Buick), who ran third at Goodwood, and whose stable is now in good form. Old Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/Paul Mulrennan) was well behind then, but has since run a good race when third at Beverley; he is still capable enough at the age of 11, but would not like any more rain, which is forecast. However rain would improve the prospects of Judge ´N´Jury (Ron Harris/ Frankie Dettori), and as he is drawn on the stands side - usually the best place to be - he looks the main danger. However we would not rule out Swan Song (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who is moving up in grade after winning an Epsom handicap; she is the last foal of the great Lochsong and a black type victory would obviously be a great boost to her stud value.< br /> Roger Varian can also take the 10 furlongs conditions race at 17.10 with Elkaayed (Paul Hanagen), who has failed to cut the ice in two group races but has won over this CD and looks a solid choice now. There are only 5 runners here, as there are in the 2yo race at 15.30, which we expect to go to the only filly in the field, Lightning Thunder (Ollie Stevens/ Harry Bentley). She won her only race in good style and has been well entered up.
We don´t really like novelty races as a betting medium, but the mile race at 16.35 could be interesting. It is for ex-jockeys (both flat and N.H.) and as much depends on the fitness of the jockeys as on that of their mounts, who are very closely matched. We go along with Michael Hills, who rides his brother Charlie´s Callmeakhab, and Kevin Darley on Kevin Ryan´s Sardanapolus.
The handicaps are of course very tricky, although we can possibly get by with two selections in the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 17.45: Life Partner (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) and Regal Dan (Charlie Hills/ Ryan Moore) seem to stand out here. But the 2yo handicap that opens the card at 15.00 and the final 5 furlongs handicap at 18.15 are too tricky to call, although it is worth bearing in mind that in Even Stevens (Scott Dixon/ Tom Queally) and Haajes (PT MIdgley/ Hanagan) we have two previous winners of the latter race, so we at least know that they can handle the CD.
The other U.K. meetings today are of little importance, but in Ireland we expect Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh to have a successful time at Galway.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Finn Class - Braidley - Fair Ranger
2. Race: Lightning Thunder - Justice Day - Expert
3. Race: Justineo - Masamah - Borderlescott
4. Race: Winslow Arizona - Callmeakhab - Piceno
5. Race: Elkaayed - Out Of Bounds - Gatewood
6. Race: Life Partner - Secretinthepark - Consign
7. Race: Threes Grand - Royal Bajan - Sleepy Blue Ocean

5 meetings today

One of our favourite horses is running today - 11yo Beckermet (Ruth Carr/ Lee McNiff) who goes for the apprentice handicap at Redcar at 18.30 CET. The old boy has run 138 times and has 13 wins and 47 wins to his credit. Obviously he is not as good as he used to be in his younger days, but he has been running well and we hope that he has another good race in him off his current rating.

His trainer has another interesting runner here in Marine Commander (James Sullivan) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30; he is on a long losing run but has come down a lot in the weights and we can see him running well at a big price here. The main event here is the straight mile handicap at 17.00 which is wide open. Kiwi Bay (Michael Dods/ Tom Eaves) is a CD specialist and should go well, but we shall take a chance on top-weight Toto Skyllachy (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), from a team in great form and who won this last year.

Ruth Carr also has some runners at Beverley and can go close with Head Space (Dale Swift) and Dubai Dynamo (Peter McDonald who have the top weight in the handicaps at 18.40 and 19.10; however Bondi Beach Boy (James Turner/ Macdonald) looks the one to beat in the former race; he is one of the most improved horses in training and has won 7 races this year, 4 of them over this CD.

Talking horse Freemason (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) makes his debut in the 2yo maiden at 15.20 at Leicester. He may well turn out to be very smart, but for now we would rather go with the proven public form of Raise Your Gaze (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby), runner-up in a decent maiden at Newbury last time. Mark Johnston continues in top form and can land a double here with Talented Kid at 15.50 and Discay an hour later, both partnered by Franny Norton.

They go over jumps today at Worcester in the U.K. and Galway in Ireland. Our fancies at the former track are The Cockney Mackem (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies( in the novice chase at 16.40, and smart chaser No Loose Change (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) in the novice hurdle an hour later. Last Shadow (Jonjo O´Neill/ AP McCoy) could be a blot on the handicap at 16.10, while German-bred Sadler´s Star (Michael Blake/ Kieron Edgar) looks a good each-way bet at 15.40.

In Ireland, Ruby Walsh can win the first 3 races on ex-French Vicky de l´Oasis at 17.25 and Indevan an hour later for Willie Mullins, and Ross Voss for his father Ted at 17.55. The best horse running here is Rebel Fitz (Mick Winters/ Barry Geraghty), who should not be troubled to win the novice chase at 19.25.

On holiday

This column is now on holiday and will be back on Tuesday.

5 meetings today

The best racing today comes from Goodwood, where the 2 mile handicap at 17.40 CET is an interesting event with all 9 runners in good form. Broxbourne (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) won the Goodwood Stakes at the Glorious meeting and has since won narrowly at Newmarket from Mawaqeet (Sir Michael Stoute/ Paul Hanagan) and there is little between the pair on that form. However they must both give 18 lbs to the improving 3yo Argent Knight (William Jarvis/ Steve Drowne), who could well become a major factor in these staying races and is our selection today. Richard Hannon has an excellent record in the 2yo races here and can win the conditions race at 16.30 with Wahaab (Hanagan) and the nursery at 17.05 with top-weight Expert (Richard Hughes).

The Queen could have a winner at Leicester today with her well-bred filly Gamble (Michael Bell/ Tom Queally) in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.05. She is still a maiden, but has shown form which could suffice here; the danger is another maiden Duke of Grazeon (Ilke Grandera-Leveque/ Royston Ffrench), whose trainer does very well with her small string.

Irish raider Lindenhurst (JC McConnell/ Graham Lee) has won his last 3 races - one of them over hurdles - including yesterday at Hamilton; if he is pulled out again, he can score a quick Scottish double by taking the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.25 at Musselburgh. If he misses the race, then top-weight Discay (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton) would be the selection.

Evening racing on turf has almost finished for 2013, but Lingfield this evening stages 3 races on grass followed by 3 on polytrack. Our fancies here are La Fortunata (Mike Murphy/ Ryan Tate) on turf at 18.50 and Plenum (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) on the all-weather one hour later.

In Ireland we have the popular Laytown Races meeting on the beach, with 6 races, all over 6 or 7 furlongs. This is a very pleasant meeting to watch, but the unique character of the track makes it unattractive for betting purposes.

Gloomy Monday

After the weekend fireworks, its back to earth with a bump today, with 3 moderate flat meetings in the U.K. and a mixed meeting at Roscommon in Ireland. Easily the best race in the U.K today is the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.,40 CET at Hamilton with 14 runnersd and lookimng very open, with severalö Trainers doubly represented. Tim Easterby runs likely favourite Gran Canaria Queen ( David Allan), who has won 4 of her 5 races this season, including this CD, but has risen quite a bit in the ratings, as well as The Nifty Fox (Phillip Makin), who however looks better at 5 furlongs. So does Secret Advice (Keith Dalgleish/ Joe Fanning) and the stable´s other runner, the very consistent Circuitous (Tom Eaves) can be preferred. Top-weight Chester Aristocrat (Eric Alston/ Jason Hart) won nicely over CD in May but no longer looks well handicapped, so we shall take a chance on oldtimer Beckermet (Ruth Carr/ James Sullivan). The 11yo has 13 wins and 46 places to his credit and can possibly improv e that record today.

The cards at Brighton andf Ffos Las are very poor and some very small fields as well means that they are not at all punter-friendly. Richard Hughes has some promising rides at the former track and can land a double with Amnesia at 16.00 and La Tinta Bay half an hour later. James Doyle won a Group Two for his new boss Khaled Abdullah on Saturday and rounded off a good weekend by winning a Group One in Ireland; he can win at Ffos Las on Abdullah´s Abated (Roger Charlton) at 17.50. Ryan Moore is also riding at the Welsh track and partners the hottest favourite of the day, Sir Michael Stoute´s Bohemian Dance, at 18.20.

Jazz Girl (Andy Oliver/ Connor King), who has top-weight in the fillies handicap at 18.45, looks the best bet at Roscommon; she has a small penalty for winning on Thursday and has the hottest aporentice of the moment in the saddle.