Thursday, September 12, 2013

ladies day at Doncaster

the Doncaster St.Leger Meeting continues today with Ladies Day and the two main events both confined to fillies. The going is good to soft and probably much softer than it has been at any time in England for the past 3 months, so punters should enter this factor into their calculations.
This should be to the advantage of The Lark (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), favourite for the top race of the day, the Park Hill Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 16.15 CET and also known as the fillies´ St.Leger. She was below form in France last time, but has had a nice break since and her form when a staying-on third in the Oaks is clearly the best in the race. The danger could be lightly-raced Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ Hayley Turner) who has only ever run 4 times - winning the last 3 - but she is taking quite a leap in class here, as is German-bred Phiz (John Gosden/ William Buick) who is even more lightly-raced and won a maiden last time. There are question marks over most of the others and we shall be surprised if The Lark (who also has an excellent pedigree) does not score here.
The other group race is the Sceptre Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.10. Maureen ( Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is down in class and distance here, but has the best form in the field, as she has been mixing it - without much success-in top company. Annecdote (Johnny Portman/ Richard Kingscote) won a similar race at Goodwood -on much faster going- but is not certain to confirm the form with runner-up Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ Graham Lee), who is now 3 lbs better off; Nargys (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) was well behind that day, but we expect her to run much better today, and her best form of last year puts her in with a chance.
Easily the most valuable race of the day is the sales race over furlongs for 2yo´s at 15.40 and with so much money on offer it is no surprise to see a huge field. Several trainers go mob-handed into such events, and Richard Hannon has 4 runners and Richard Fahey and Brian Meehan three each. Best of these could be Hannon´s Coulsty (the choice of stable jockey Hughes), who clearly holds Suzi´ s Connoisseur (Mark Johnston /Joe Fanning) on York form, but we were quite taken with the latter´s performance at Baden-Baden and expect him to run well here.
The 2yo mile maiden at 16.50 looks interesting with some very well-bred runners. Clear bdest on form is Alpine Retreat (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona), runner-up at Kempton on her only start so far, but Godolphin also have the debutant Fast Delivery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) engaged,, who is out of German Oaks winner Rosenreihe.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Les Gar Gan - Ticking Katie - Gown
2. Race: Maureen - Winning Express - Annecdote
3. Race: Coulsty - Ben Hall - Azagal
4. Race: The Lark - Seal Of Approval - Alta Lilea
5. Race: Alpine Retreat - Hard Divorce - Fast Delivery
6. Race: If So - Dark Castle - Fairway To Heaven
7. Race: Greek War - Conduct - Tha`ir