Friday, September 13, 2013

Doncaster St.Leger meeting - third day

an excellent card for the third day of Doncaster´s St. Leger Meeting with 3 Group Two races; unfortunately the fields are quite small and only one race has more than 8 runners. The going is officially good to soft but it appears to ride softer than that, and there are quite a few non-runners.
The card opens with the Group Two Flying Childers for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 14.40 CET. This looks quite tricky, but we like Windfire (David Brown/ Jamie Spencer) who is very speedy and found 6 furlongs too far last time. She has never run on ground as soft as this - but neither have the others. Ambiance (Mick Channon/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Extortionist (Olly Stevens/ Mickael Barzalona) look the main dangers.
There are some familiar faces in the Doncaster Cup over 2 1/4 miles at 15.40. In fact 4 of the 7 runners ran in the race last year, in which Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) just scored by a neck from High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ James Doyle), with Repeater (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ de Sousa) further back. It would come as no surprise to see the same result today although Colour Vision, who won the Gold Cup last year but has been very inconsistent since, would be a clear threat at this best. However Biographer (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) could be the main threat to the favourites as he is guaranteed to like this ground and is quite likely to be suited by this extreme distance.
The May Hill Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile at 16.15 has been dominated by Godolphin in recent years and we expect the Maktoum stable to score again, with Ihtimal (bin Suroor/ de Sousa), easy winner of the Sweet Solera last time, just preferred to Majeyda (Charlie Appleby/ Barzalona), a narrow winner from Qawaasem (Charlie Hills/ Paul Hanagan) at Sandown in July.
The 6 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.25 is the best betting race of the day, with bookies currently going 7-1 the field. Shropshire (Charlie Hills/ Robert Winston) is the class act here having run well in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and other top sprint handicaps, but he has a huge weight and we would rather look elsewhere. Our 3 against the field are Dubawi Sound (David Brown/ Spencer), who should be ideally suited by this trip, Bertiewhittle (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons), whose trainer and jockey had a double here yesterday, and Sir Reginald (Richard Fahey/ Hanagan), who seems to be coming back to form and is now well handicapped.
After her bad fall yesterday, Hayley Turner will not be riding today, but she is out of hospital and has not suffered any serious damage. Her best chance would have been on James Fanshawe´s Shwaiman at 15.10, who will now be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and is our selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wind Fire - Extortionist - Thunder Strike
2. Race: Shwaiman - Tropical Beat - Pether`s Moon
3. Race: Times Up - High Jinx - Biographer
4. Race: Ihtimal - Majeyda - Qawaasem

5. Race: Be Ready - Barley Mow - Voice Of A Leader
6. Race: Elusive Flame - Shropshire - Sir Reginald
7. Race: Zain Eagle - Morocco - Stellar Express