Wednesday, September 11, 2013

start of Doncaster St.Leger meeting

the Doncaster St. Leger meeting starts today and although today´s is probably the weakest card of the fixture (which goes on until Saturday) it is still much better than the usual midweek fare.
Main event is the listed Scarborough Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET, where most of the runners have met before , either in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood or the Beverley Bullet more recently. Clear form choice is Justineo (Roger Varian/ William Buick), who ran third at Goodwood, and whose stable is now in good form. Old Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/Paul Mulrennan) was well behind then, but has since run a good race when third at Beverley; he is still capable enough at the age of 11, but would not like any more rain, which is forecast. However rain would improve the prospects of Judge ´N´Jury (Ron Harris/ Frankie Dettori), and as he is drawn on the stands side - usually the best place to be - he looks the main danger. However we would not rule out Swan Song (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who is moving up in grade after winning an Epsom handicap; she is the last foal of the great Lochsong and a black type victory would obviously be a great boost to her stud value.< br /> Roger Varian can also take the 10 furlongs conditions race at 17.10 with Elkaayed (Paul Hanagen), who has failed to cut the ice in two group races but has won over this CD and looks a solid choice now. There are only 5 runners here, as there are in the 2yo race at 15.30, which we expect to go to the only filly in the field, Lightning Thunder (Ollie Stevens/ Harry Bentley). She won her only race in good style and has been well entered up.
We don´t really like novelty races as a betting medium, but the mile race at 16.35 could be interesting. It is for ex-jockeys (both flat and N.H.) and as much depends on the fitness of the jockeys as on that of their mounts, who are very closely matched. We go along with Michael Hills, who rides his brother Charlie´s Callmeakhab, and Kevin Darley on Kevin Ryan´s Sardanapolus.
The handicaps are of course very tricky, although we can possibly get by with two selections in the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 17.45: Life Partner (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) and Regal Dan (Charlie Hills/ Ryan Moore) seem to stand out here. But the 2yo handicap that opens the card at 15.00 and the final 5 furlongs handicap at 18.15 are too tricky to call, although it is worth bearing in mind that in Even Stevens (Scott Dixon/ Tom Queally) and Haajes (PT MIdgley/ Hanagan) we have two previous winners of the latter race, so we at least know that they can handle the CD.
The other U.K. meetings today are of little importance, but in Ireland we expect Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh to have a successful time at Galway.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Finn Class - Braidley - Fair Ranger
2. Race: Lightning Thunder - Justice Day - Expert
3. Race: Justineo - Masamah - Borderlescott
4. Race: Winslow Arizona - Callmeakhab - Piceno
5. Race: Elkaayed - Out Of Bounds - Gatewood
6. Race: Life Partner - Secretinthepark - Consign
7. Race: Threes Grand - Royal Bajan - Sleepy Blue Ocean