Ayr Gold Cup

the Ayr Gold Cup at 16.50 CET is only a handicap, but it is worth almost 100,000 GBP to the winner and, despite various Group and listed races, is the top race today. With 26 runners (last year´s winner Captain Ramius has been withdrawn) it is one of the toughest races of the year for punters, but we shall try to make things easier by discarding all runners drawn less than 15; yesterday´s results showed clearly that horses drawn high had an advantage and we hope that the same holds true today.
No Scottish-trained runner has won Scotland´s top flat race in ages, but Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) will attempt to put this right and could well start favourite; he has however a stiff task under top-weight and is not certain to confirm the form with Mass Rally (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan), whom he beat by a head in a Newmarket Group Three in June. Mass Rally won the Silver Cup here last year and although not so well handicapped now must come on the short list. So must Hoof It (Mick Easterby/ Graham Gibbons), who won the Stewards Cup under top weight last year, although he would not want any more rain. We also like Khubala (Hugo Palmer/ Phillip Makin), not disgraced when 6th in the Goldene Peitsche last time. Red Dubawi (David Marnane/ Conor King) is an interesting Irish runner, while the dark horse is Duke of Firenze (Sir Michael Stoute/ Cathy Gannon), although he is arguably better over 5 furlongs.
The theoretical main event is the Group Three for 2yo fillies at 16.15. An Irish filly won the main juvenile race here yesterday and we expect Remember You (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) to follow suit, with Hoku (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley) and Valonia (Henry Candy/ Jamie Spencer) as the main dangers. There could be another Irish victory in the Silver Cup (the consolation race for the big handicap) at 15.40, as An Saighduir (Slattery/ Willie Lee), third here last year, must have a decent chance; Colonlel Mak (David Barron/ Gibbons) is a CD specialist who should go well, but is badly drawn, and we prefer Yeeoow (Karl Burke/ Joey Haynes), third to Sir Reginald (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) last week and now much better drawn.
The listed race over 10 furlongs at 15.05 is another tricky race. Sharestan ex-Aga Khan/ John Oxx, and now Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) is top-rated but has not run since the Dubai Carnival. We prefer First Mohican (Lady Cecil/Tom Queally) - who had no chance in a Deauville Group two last time - and Willie the Whipper (Anne Duffield/ Spencer), who was long regarded as a German Derby prospect this spring.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Braidley - Les Gar Gan - Light Weight
2. Race: First Mohican - Sharestan - Hajras
3. Race: Colonel Mak - Sir Reginald - Pearl Ice
4. Race: Remember You - Mecca`s Angel - Valonia
5. Race: Jack Dexter - Baccarat - Gabriel`s Lad
6. Race: Osteopathic Remedy - Two For Two - Brae Hill
7. Race: Laffan - Haaf A Sixpence - Frontier Fighter
8. Race: Cockney Sparrow - Eric The Grey - Jonny Delta