Saturday, September 21, 2013

Newbury and Newmarket

Newbury has 3 group races on the card today, including the grandly-named Arc Trial over 11 furlongs at 14.50 CET. We cannot imagine that this race will have any bearing on the big race at Longchamp in a fortnight´s time, but it does supply the best bet of the day in ex-German Kassiano (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who looks a cut above this opposition. The Mill Reef Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.20 looks trickier with Richard Hannon saddling two live contenders in Anticipated (Richard Hughes) and Shamshon (Frankie Dettori). The latter looks the better prospect, having won both his starts in good style, but they were over 5 furlongs and over a furlong further we prefer Supplicant (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton). The different distance could also play a role in the 5 furlongs race at 16.30, as Irish sprinter Maarek (Barry Lalor/ Declan McDonogh) is probably better at 6, but he can still outclass this lot on his favoured soft ground. Our other fancy here is Voodoo Prince (Ed Dunlop/ Andrea Atzeni) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 15.55; he was just touched off at Doncaster last week over 1 172 miles, but we think that today´s distance will suit him better.
Main events at Newmarket are the two valuable sales races for 2yo´s, both with obvious favourites: Wedding Ring (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) in the fillies´ race at 15.30 and Jallotta (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) in the colts´ version at 16.05. Both have good form in group races to their credit and in theory they should both win. We also like German-bred Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Johnny Murtagh) in the 2 1/4 mile handiap at 16.40; the Lomitas gelding has top weight, but stays really well and we can see him running well in the Cesarewitch nrext month, for which this is the most important trial.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Storm Rider - Extremity - Magnus Maximus
2. Race: Kassiano - Camborne - Gifted Girl
3. Race: Shamshon - Anticipated - Figure Of Speech

4. Race: Disclaimer - Saxo Jack - Black Spirit
5. Race: Tickled Pink - York Glory - Kingsgate Native
6. Race: Malachim Mist - Meteoroid - Master Carpenter
7. Race: Exchequer - Kingston Hill - Keep Close
8. Race: Evident - Benoni - Glanely