Thursday, September 19, 2013

mainly handicaps

plenty of racing today. but mainly at handicap level. The Yarmouth meeting goes into its final day, but the main event, a handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 17.20 CET, has cut up disappointingly; with 3 non-runners, only 5 now go to post. Montefeltro (Brian Ellison/ Robert Tart) will probably start a warm favourite here, as he is not penalised for easily winning with this jockey last time, but we shall take a chance with Lyric Street (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore), out of German Champion Elle Danzig, who has not run since June but is now down in the weights.
Another runner with a German pedigree is Collodi (Roger Curtis/ Martin Harley), who runs in the mile handicap at 16.00 at Pontefract; he was trained by Peterr Schiergen until recently and seems to have got in here with a very favourable weight. However the one we like best here is CD specialist Misplaced Fortune (Nigel Tinkler/ Kevin Stott) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.00; the 8yo mare won this race last year off a higher rating and can score again.
Ayr begins its big 3 day meeting, the biggest Scottish fixture of the year, with a relatively weak card today. The best race is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.40; this looks wide open, although King of the Danes (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) will probably start favourite after two easy wins; however they were on firm going and on this much softer ground we prefer Spirit of the Law (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner).
Arguably the best card of the day is in Ireland, where the Listowel Harvest Festival goes into its fourth day. Some horses are already running for the second time at the meeting, and we would not be surprised to see Fulminata (Jim Bolger/ KK Hennessy) score under a 5 lbs penalty at 16.35 after his easy win here on Monday. Ibsen (JJ Murphy/ Ben Curtis) was unplaced over hurdles here on Tuesday, but could run well on the flat at 17.05,. Trainer Tony Martin can land a double in the N.H. races with Pires (Paul Townend) at 18.05, very well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase rating, and Victrix Gale (Ruby Walsh) half an hour later.

Betting forecast Yarmouth:
1. Race: Wednaan - Al Senad - Exceeding Power
2. Race: Mount Logan - Istikshaf - Deadly Approach
3. Race: Ocean Tempest - Shesastar - Azrur
4. Race: Istimraar - Boadicee - Gender Agenda
5. Race: Montefeltro - Lyric Street - Hi Note
6. Race: Nullarbor Sky - Shalwa - I Say
7. Race: Sedenoo - Rocksilla - Baddilini