Monday, September 30, 2013

Grade Three novice chase at Roscommon

the 3 U.K. meetings today are nothing special, but there is an interesting mixed meeting in Ireland, with 4 flat races followed by 3 chases and a bumper at Roscommon. The main event is the Grade Three novice chase over 2 miles at 17.35 CET, with some quite promising types entered. The Real Article (Edward O´Grady/ Barry Geraghty) was a Grade Two winner over hurdles and has already shown that he can jump fences, but has to concede weight all round. For that reason we just prefer Shadow Eile (Di Love/ Andrew McNamara), who was also smart over sticks, but fell last time after winning her first chase in good style. Toostrong represents the powerful Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh combination, but looks held by The Real Article on latest form, but Cootamundra (JA Barry/ RM Moran) could be a danger on his first outing since April; however this trip might be a bit short, as he had previously run in the Irish Grand National. Earlier Aidan and Joseph O´Brien might land a double on the flat with John Constable in the 2yo maiden at 15.35 and the 1 1/2 mile maiden an hour later with debutant Sardinia. Both are of course extremely well-bred, the former being a full brother to St. Leger winner Leading Light; he was a beaten favourite on his debut 8 days ago but is expected to step up on that form today.
At Bath, we think that Daylight (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) can defy top weight in the 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.30. He likes this track and the trainer - who also has a chance with Libeccio (Liam Keniry) in the 2yo race over 1 1 /4 miles at 15.30 - is in good form.
Another trainer in form is Mark Johnston and he can take the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.40 at Hamilton with the lightly-raced 3yo Dawn Calling (Joe Fanning); Barkston Ash (Eric Alston/ Jason JHart) could be the main danger.
They go over jumps at Newton Abbot and our best bet there is Oscar Magic (Nogel and Sam Twiston-Davies) in the novice hurdle at 15.20; the stable is going great guns and won this race last year with subsequent Cheltenham winner The New Man.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: John Constable - Go For Goal - Teoleena
2. Race: Harpist - Footprint - Foot Perfect
3. Race: Sardinia - Global Reach - Timikar
4. Race: Wyoyo - Little Arrows - Golden Silence
5. Race: The Real Article - Darwins Fox - Shadow Eile
6. Race: Dale Street - Theshowisover - Jakros
7. Race: Usuel Smurfer - Sir Vincent - Hunting Party
8. Race: Ange Balafre - Henry`s Girl - Knox`s Bridge