Saturday, September 28, 2013

Cambridgeshire plus two Group Ones at Newmarket

Newmarket stages one of its best cards of the year today, with the Cambridgeshire Handicap over 9 furlongs at 16.50 CET as the main event, and two Group Ones as supporting features. With the ground getting firmer, there could be several non-runners and any horse needing cut will certainly be at a disadvantage. The Cambridgeshire is always one of the toughest races of the year and anything is possible.

There does not appear to be any draw bias, so the winner could come from anywhere. More in hope than expectation, we nominate 5 horses for the short list: Belgian Bill (George Baker/ Pat Cosgrave), Field of Dream (Jamie Osborne/Adam Kirby), Red Avenger (Ed Dunlop/ Gerald Mossé) and two trained by William Haggas: Fury (John Fahy) and Queensberry Rules (Ryan Moore), but there are still another 25+ runners to consider!

The Group One Cheveley Park Stakes at 15.35 is generally regarded as the best race of the year for 2yo fillies and French fillies have a good record here, so Vorda (Philippe Sogorb/ Olivier Peslier) is a good starting point; after winning her first 3 races, including the Robert Papin, she was an excellent runner-up to the smart No Nay Never in the Morny.On a line through Rizeena, runner-up in a Group One here yesterday, she holds Kiyoshi (Chatlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) and the main danger could be Princess Noor (Roger Varian/ Johnny Murtagh), who won well at Ascot last time and whose trainer and jockey are both in terrific form.

The Sun Chariot at 16.10 is also a Group One for fillies, but this time older ones over a mile. Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) looks the key runner here; she won the 1,000 Guneas over this CD, beating the reopposing Just the Judge (Hills/ Spencer), who went on to take the Irish equivalent, and then won at Royal Ascot. She can be excused her poor run at Goodwood, biut before that was just beaten in an infamous race for the Falmouth Stakes at the July Meeting here by Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick). Elusive Kate clearly hampered her badly and we think she should have got the race. She has her chance of revenge today and the fast ground should suit her ideally.

The card opens with the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile and this looks a match between Berkshire (Paul Cole/ Jim Crowley) and Somewhat (Mark Johnston/ Gerald Mossé). Berkshire has not run since his impressive Royal Ascot victory, when Somewhat was 8 lengths behind, but the latter has shown good form since and there should be little in it today.

There are some tricky handicaps later, and we fancy Ayaar (Mick Channon/ Ryan Moore) over 7 furlongs at 18.00; he has not won since Baden-Baden a year ago, but has come down in the weights and is running over his best distance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Somewhat - Washaar - Kingfisher
2. Race: Vorda - Kiyoshi - Joyeuse
3. Race: Sky Lantern - Elusive Kate - Integral
4. Race: Ascription - Queensberry Rules - Graphic
5. Race: Meeting Waters - Remember - Hala Hala
6. Race: Regal Dan - Flyman - Frontier Fighter
7. Race: Urban Dance - Marju`s Quest - Bantam