Wednesday, February 29, 2012

3 dreadful cards today

The standard of racing today´s 3 meetings is very poor indeed with only a single horse of even average ability running. That exception is Star in Flight (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) in the novice hurdle at 16.50 CET at Catterick. He was an easy winner here in December and would have won on his next start as well but for stumbling two out. With his one serious opponent withdrawn, he appears to have little to beat and is today´s banker. Zoenicibel (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) might be a profitable each-way bet in the mares novice handicap hurdle here at 15.50 and so could be German-bred Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Joe Colliver) at 17.50, but both are highly speculative.

The ground is firming up at Leicester and soft ground form should be treated with caution. Tempting Paradise (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) likes this ground and the fact that he has not run since the summer may not stop him winning the handicap chase at 15.30; his stable is in good form and can follow up in the novice chase at 17.00, where ex-Australian Pentiffic (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) looks the main danger. Evan Williams can possibly complete a hat-trick with Mac Halen (Adam Wedge) who landed a gamble last week at Taunton and may follow up under a penalty at 18.00.

The card on the all-weather at Lingfield looks even worse, and with some very small fields is not at all punter-friendly. Richard Hannon´ few runners have all been running well, and he can take the 3yo maiden at 17.40 with Travellers Tales (Kieren O´Neill), owned by the Queen. Gary Moore has two runners in the 2 mile handicap at 16.10, and while jockey bookings suggest that Ministry (George Baker) could be the main hope, we prefer top-weight Kahfre David Probert), who reserves his best form for this track and won this race last year.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell

The National Spirit Hurdle, a Grade Two event over 2 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET this afternoon at Fontwell, has often enough been won by stars of the hurdling scene, but that will not be the case today as the field looks sub-standard. Clerks Choice (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) ran a good race to be 6th in last year´s Champion Hurdle and that form would certainly suffice to win this, but all his performances since then have been well below that level. We prefer Duc de Regniere (Tom Symonds/ Denis O´Regan) and The Knoxs (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), both of whom receive 3 lbs. The latter has been chasing, while the former has been well beaten on his 2 starts for this trainer and spent most of his time with Nicky Henderson unavailingly chasing Big Bucks; however we think that this is the ideal race for him and is our selection.

The novice chase here at 15.35 is a very tricky race and all 5 runners could win. Trenchant (Bob Buckler/ Andrew Glassonbury) won nicely on his first race for his new trainer and was the best of these over hurdles. but the consistent Cucumber Run (Henderson/ David Bass) is a big danger despite his penalty. The Queen has fewer runners over jumps than her late mother, but she should take the hunter chase at 17.15 with Barber Shop (Henderson/ N. de Bainville); he was easily the best of these in younger days and came back from a long layoff to win easily at Fakenham 9 days ago.

The card at Towcester is very poor, but we expect John Ferguson and Jack Quinlan to win both divisions of the novice hurdle at 15.20 and 15.50 with Asaid and Creekside respectively. Both won well first time out over hurdles before failing in better company; back at this level they should win again. Tom George and Paddy Brennan enjoyed a highly successful day at Kempton yesterday and continue in the same vein with Nodebateaboutit in the handicap chase at 17.55. He seems nuch improved and can complete a hat-trick here, even though he meets Rebel Swing (Sue Smith/ Henry Oliver) on 11 lbs worse terms for a neck.

There is much better racing at Naas, although some of the fields are quite small by Irish standards. Seabass (Ted and Ruby Walsh) has been brilliantly handled to win his last 5 races, but we think he is up against it in the Grade Two chase at 17.05. Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Barry Geraghty) is the class act here, but we also like Zaarito (Colm Murphy/ Davy Russell), who always goes well at this track. Ruby should in any case win the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.25 on Willie Mullins´ Felix Yonger, while we hope German-bred Shot from the Hip (O`Grady/ Mark Walsh can get back on the winning trail at 15.55.

Fontwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Madam Noso - Oscar Davy - Brough Academy
2. Race: Sir Du Bearn - Chariot Charger - Cucumber Run
3. Race: Rateable Value - Rigadin De Beauchene - Magot De Grugy
4. Race: The Knoxs - Third Intention - Bally Legend
5. Race: Barbers Shop - Hills Of Aran - Palypso De Creek
6. Race: Spirit D`Armor - Bold Adventure - Sircozy
7. Race: Utopian - Lombard Light - Two Oscars

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Rest of U.K. and Irish racing

The other big trial for the Triumph Hurdle is in Ireland - the opening Grade Two 4yo hurdle at 14.55 CET at Fairyhouse, which sees the hurdling debut of the much-hyped Minsk (Dessie Hughes/ Ben Cooper), who is already favourite for Cheltenham without having jumped a hurdle in public. He finished last season by winning his last 3 races for John Oxx, including the Irish Cesarewitch, but still needs to jump and run well to score here as the opposition is strong. Burrenbridge Lodge (Keith Purcell/ Tom Doyle) and Bat Masterson (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) both have good winning form over sticks to their credit, while Celebrity Sevi (Dermot Weld/ Mark Walsh) is at least the equal of Minsk on flat form.

The other big race at Fairyhouse is the Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase over an extended 3 miles at 16.30. This is usually the best Irish Grand National trial, and Willie Mullins runs his Aintree hope Prince de Beauchene (Paul Townend). Bostons Angel (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Alfa Beat (Shark Hanlon/ Andrew McNamara) look dangerous, and so would Black Apalachi (Hughes/ Andrew Lynch) be, if anywhere near the form which saw him runner-up here in 2010 and then in the Grand National itself; however he has not run since, which is obviously a problem.

Newcastle´s Eider Chase at 16.25 can also be regarded as a National trial and is run over the extreme distance of 4 miles 1 furlong. Captain Americo (James Ewart/ Nick Scholfield) and Negus de Beaumont (Ferdy Murphy/ Lucy Alexander) are our fancies in a very open race.

There is also some decent flat racing on the all-weather at Lingfield, with two listed events. Our best bet here is Palace Moon (Will Knight/ Joe Fanning) over 6 furlongs at 15.50; he has won both his 2012 starts with the greatest of ease and can complete a hat-trick here.

Fairyhouse - betting forecast:
1. Race: Minsk - Burrenbridge Lodge - Midnight Oil
2. Race: Is Herself About - Shadow Eile - Sligo Publican
3. Race: Really Unique - A Country Girl - Pass The Hat
4. Race: Alfa Beat - Prince De Beauchene - Bostons Angel
5. Race: Ninetieth Minute - Mackeys Forge - Kilbrannish Hill
6. Race: Kilty Storm - Rudi Trucker - Zardsky
7. Race: You Must Know Me - Royal Sam - What A Story

Racing Plus Chase at Kempton

the Racing Plus (previously Post) Chase, a Grade 3 handicap chase over 3 miles at 16.05 CET, is the big race of the day in the U.K., athough to be honest the field is not that great for the prize-money. Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) has top weight and is likely to start favourite, and his trainer and jockey have a great record here. However the stable is in muddling form at the moment, and we definitely prefer Nacarat (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who won this race in 2009 and has been twice placed since. Deep Purple (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), a good stayer, is another one we expect to run well and it looks a very open event, with even 13yo bottom-weight Mount Oscar (Colin and Joe Tizzard) in with a chance.

The card opens with the Grade Two Adonis Hurdle for 4yo´s at 15.00, which should provide some useful Triumph Hurdle clues. Dildar (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), Sadlers Risk (Hobbs/ Johnson) and Une Artiste (Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty) have all won their only British hurdles start and one of them will probably win here. However Alan King prefers to run his Triumph prospect Grumeti (Robert Thornton) against older horses in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.40. He has to win to keep his Cheltenham hopes alive, but faces tough opposition including Keys (Henderson/ Geraghty), a smart bumper who has also done well on the flat, and two interesting debutants Terre du Vent (George/ Brennan) and Dodging Bullets (Nicholls/ Walsh).

The powerful Henderson and Nicholls stables are in opposition again in the Grade Two novice chase at 17.10, but here we prefer Zaynar (Nick Williams/ Tom Scudamore), and the jockey can follow up with David Pipe´s Ashbrittle in the handicap hurdle at 17.45. He is up in trip here, but stayed well on the flat and is out of a German mare.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sadler`S Risk - Dildar - Une Artiste
2. Race: Hunt Ball - Not So Sure Dick - Arrayan
3. Race: Planet Of Sound - Nacarat - Michel Le Bon
4. Race: Grumeti - Keys - Dodging Bullets
5. Race: Cristal Bonus - Zaynar - Minella Class

6. Race: Ashbrittle - Semi Colon - Like A Hurricane
7. Race: Virginia Ash - Off The Wall - Starving Marvin

Friday, February 24, 2012

Smaller trainers to triumph today?

Plenty of action today but the 3 all-weather meetings stage mainly low-level handicaps, so we shall concentrate on the N.H. meetings at Sandown and Warwick - though these are also not exactly high class. Some of the top stables - e.g. Nicholls, Henderson, Hobbs - have suffered various setbacks this week, so we shall take a chance and leave out their short-priced runners and hope to find some winners from smaller und less fashionable trainers. Evan Williams has his string in good form and has two good chances at Sandown, both partnered by Paul Moloney: Wester Ross in the handicap chase at 15.25 CET - where Lord Singer (Gary and Joshua Moore) looks the main danger - and Lancetto - out of an Acatenango mare- in the novice chase at 16.35, with Falcon Island (Colin and Joe Tizzard) the chief threat despite the presence of Henderson and Nicholls runners. Numide (Rod Millman/ Leighton Aspell) has been very expensive to follow this season, but now that he has been dropped in grade, w e shall give him another chance in the handicap hurdle at 17.10, while last-time-out winners Moleskin (Vic Dartnall/ Andrew Glassonbury), Dont Tell Sailor (Jennie Candlish/ Alan O´Keeffe) and Inga Bird (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall) are our 3 against the field in the handicap chase half an hour later.

Jennie Candlish might even land an across-the-card double, as Tarn Hows (Sean Quinlan) must have a chance in the novice hurdle at 16.10 at Warwick. We also like Aviso (David Evans/ Nthan Adams) in the "hands and heels" handicap hurdle at 15.05. This one-time German classic winner has been kept busy on the all-weather this winter, but also won over hurdles at Ludlow 6 weeks ago. That was a poor race, but so is this, and we feel that has has been underestimated by the handicapper. Jeremy Scott and Nick Schofield had a double at Huntingdon yesterday and can score again with Clash Duff in the stayers handicap chase at 16.45.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Good novices at Huntingdon

Huntingdon stages one of its best days of the year today with the Sidney Banks Memorial for novice hurdlers at 16.30 CET as the main event. Even with only 5 runners this looks a good race, with All the Aces (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) the form choice after 3 decent efforts at Newbury last time following some group class perfomances on the flat. Nagpur (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) has won his last two races, both on heavy ground, while Golden Gael (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) has also won twice over hurdles and as a mare gets 7 lbs from the other two mentioned. Henderson and Geraghty also have a chance of winning the novice chase at 16.00 with Owen Glendower. However as the only chase winner in the small field, he has to concede 7 lbs to the others, and we are not sure he can manage this. Qaspal (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) won the Imperial Cup over hurdles in 2010, but has only run once since, and Megastar (Gary and Jamie Moore) could be more of a danger; he was arguably the best of these over hurdles and although he has not been so convincing over fences, he looks to have a winning chance now. A good performance from Golden Gael at 16.30 would be an obvious pointer to Night Rose (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the following mares novice hurdle, who was runner-up to her over this CD and then looked the likely winner when falling 2 out last time at Taunton.

The most interesting runner at Lingfield, where they race over jumps today, is the German-bred Val Mondo (Venetia Williams/ Harry Challonner) who runs in the conditional jookeys handicap hurdle at 17.20. This winner of the German St. Leger has not so far run up to expectations in the U.K. but ran respectably last time at Taunton and faces only modest opposition today.

The card at Thurles today is very low-key by Irish standards. Mazuri Cowboy (Eoin Doyle/ Ruby Walsh) has been runner-up on both his hurdles starts and can possibly make it third time lucky in the maiden hurdle at 16.55.
The racing at today´s all-weather meetings is not very inviting, but Mark Johnston continues in irrepressible form and can land a double at Southwell with Colour Guard (Joe Fanning) at 17.10 and Scatter Dice (Franny Norton) half an hour later.

Dubai World Cup Carnival Meeting continues today

The main event at Meydan today is the Group Three UAE Oaks over 9 furlongs for 3yo fillies at 16.20 CET. This looks at the mercy of Pimpernel (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori), who finished runner-up to the smart Gamilati in the UAE 1,000 Guineas here, with 4 of today´s 5 opponents well behind. Aslindi (Ali Rashid al Raihe/ Royston Ffrench), third that day, could come out best of them again, but the only danger to Pimpernel is probably her stable companion Falls of Lara (Mikael Barzalona), who has not run since the Arc meeting. Godolphin and Dettori could also win a couple of races on the undercard but surprisingly Godolphin has no runner in the listed Meydan Classic for 3yo´s over a mile at 16.45. This is a very open affair and we shall take a chance on Entifaadha (William Haggas/ Richard Hills)

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sarrsar - Capponi - Disa Leader
2. Race: Spring Of Fame - Jardim - Jamr
3. Race: Cash Luck - Entifaadha - Noor Zabeel
4. Race: Pimpernel - Falls Of Lora - Alsindi
5. Race: Inxile - Monsieur Joe - Prohibit
6. Race: City Style - Shamalgan - Rerouted

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

5 meetings today

Lots of runners today, with big fields at most of the 5 meetings. The most valuable event is the veterans handicap chase for 10yo´s and older over 3 miles at 16.30 CET at Doncaster. The are some quite decent performers entered here and the one we like is Faasel (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who has not won for ages but has run some good races in smart company. Atouchbetweenacara (Venetia Williams/ Harry Challoner), who ran for a long way at Wincanton on Saturday, looks next best. The 4yo hurdle here at 14.55 also has some useful youngsters entered; our preference is for Ardlui (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), even though he has to give weight away all round.

The card at Ludlow opens with 2 divisions of a maiden hurdle, with the first division at 14.35 looking the better race. Swing Bowler (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) won both her bumper starts and makes her debut over sticks here, but Charlie Wingnut (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) and Sonoran Sands (Brendan and Brendan Powell) have both shown ability over hurdles and are a big threat. The second division could go to High on a Hill (Donald McCain/ Adrian Lane), runner-up to a decent sort at Leicester last time. We also like Akarshan (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) in the handicap chase here at 16.10.

The most interesting runner of the day runs in the opening hurdle at Punchestown at 15.00 - Cousin Vinny (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). He looked potentially top class back in 2008 when winning the Cheltenham Champion Bumper but has been off the track for almost 2 years. If anywhere near his old form, he would certainly win this, and trainer and jockey can follow up half an hour later with Maggie Connolly, with Psycho (Tony Martin/ Adrian Heskin) looking the main danger.

Best bet in today´s 2 all-weather meetings to our mind is Pale Orchid (David Evans/ Matthew Cosham), who has top-weight in the 3yo handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.30 at LIngfield.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

3 meetings today

3 meetings today but nothing of great importance. Moose Moran (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is an interesting runner under top weight in the 2 3/4 mile handicap hurdle at 15.40 CET at Wetherby. Previously trained by Sir Henry Cecil and then Nicky Henderson, he has miserably failed to live up to earlier promise, but perhaps a change of stables will solve his problems. However the logical choice here is clearly Seven is Lucky (Jim Goldie/ Henry Brooke) who carries no penalty for his easy win at Ayr and is still on a very nice mark. Alderluck, ex-Nick Gifford, is another Pipe newcomer and could also show improvement when he contests the handicaap chase at 16.15, especially with first-time blinkers. However this is a very tricky race in which any of the 12 runners could win. Our tentative selection is Mac Aeda (Malcolm Jefferson/ Brian Hughes). Our each way bet here is Le Roi Rouge (Ferdy Murphy/ Robert McCarth) in the 2 mile handicap chase at 17.25; he has been dropped to a favour able weight, likes it here and goes well for this jockey.

Best race at Taunton is the handicap hurdle at 16.40. The form choices here are Sire de Grugy (Gary and Jamie Moore), 4th in the big handicap at Newbury last Friday, and the consistent Edagrdo Sol (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham); however there i coughing in the Nicholls stable, so we should be careful with his runners, while the Newbury event was very tough and rough. We shall take a chance on Dare Me (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), 9th of 14 on his comeback after 14 months, but who has definite possibilities on his old form. The Hobbs stable has been going through a quiet spell, but we also think he can win the novice hurdle here at 15.00 with Giordano Bruno (Johnson) as well as the hunter chase at 17.45 with Templer (Nicholas Sutton).

There are small fields at Southwell´s all-weather fixture, with only 35 runners in the 7 races. Cotton Trader (John Gosden/ Nicky Mackay) in the maiden at 15.50 and course specialist La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Adam Kirby) in the claimer at 16.25 should both win, but they will be at long odds-on and are not bombproof. The 1 1/2 miles handicap at 17.00 is a more suitable betting medium, but looks wide open; we fancy Spartan King (Ian Williams/ Jamie Spencer), who looked unlucky when narrowly beaten here last time.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Two poor meetings today

A typical Monday with only two poor meetings. Best bet at Carlisle should be Crowning Jewel (Keith and James Reveley) in the opening novice hurdle at 15.00 CET. After winning a bumper easily here in November, he has been placed in both his starts over sticks, with his most recent form at Catterick reading very well. He can make the most of the 7 lbs he receives from the two previous winners.

The handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.40 is the best betting race here. 14yo Victory Gunner (Richard Lee/ Jake Greenall) is an inspiration to all veterans and has won 4 of his last 6 races; we would love to see him score again but at these weights prefer the course winners Do It for Dalkey (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) and Beamazed (Malcolm Jefferson/ Denis O´Regan). The much-improved Diamond d´Amour (G. Bewley/ Paddy Brennan) should be able to defy top weight in the handicap hurdle at 17.45, but value-seekers could possibly see course specialist Open de l´Isle (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes) as an each-way alternative.

The card for Wolverhampton´s all-weather meeting is even worse, but it is interesting to see some top jockeys in action. Jamie Spencer is here, primarily to ride Michael Bell´s Strong Vigilance in the 9 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.25. His recent perfomances have been disastrous but Strong Vigilance´s only two career wins were a year ago over this CD, including this CD, and he is now on a tempting weight. One time German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Matthew Cosham) and Warden Bond (Wilf Stone/ Martin Lane), going for a CD hat-trick, look the main dangers. The 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 18.00 is quite open, although Al Freej (Roger Varian/ Dominic Fox) will probably start a warm favourite after his easy maiden win over this CD 11 days ago. However we do not why the handicapper has rated him so much higher than Cats Eyes (Robert Cowell/ Shane Kelly) and the latter may be the better bet.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Later: McCoy not riding today

Tony McCoy has cried off his four rides at Ffos Las today, as he is still feeling sore from his heavy fall at Newbury on Friday.

Graded races in Ireland

Nicky Henderson has enjoyed a fantastic couple of days, and we expect him to continue on the winning trail with State Benefit (Andrew Tinkler), his only runner today, who goes for the novice chase at 16.15 CET at Market Rasen. Consistent Mics Delight (Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan) looks the one to beat. Also at Market Rasen, we think that Lucy Wadham and Matt Crawley have two each-way chances with Manshoor and German-bred El Dancer in the handcap hurdles at 15.10 and 15.40 respectively. Another treiner in top form is Colin Tizzard, who sent out 5 winners in an hour yesterday. He should certainly win the novice hurdle at 14.30 at Ffos Las, in which he has two fancied runners. While son Joe partners Jumps Road, we prefer Ohio Gold, the mount of young Brendan Powell, who has potentially more class. The second division of this race, half an hour later, can go to Benheir (Rabecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) and the champion jockey has several other good mounts, notably Jonjo O´Neill´s ligh tly-raced Cross the Flags at 16.35.

Later - McCoy not riding today: Tony McCoy has cried off his four rides at Ffos Las today, as he is still feeling sore from his heavy fall at Newbury on Friday.

Easily the best racing today comes from Ireland, where there are 3 graded races at Navan. The Boyne Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.20 is the race of the day and looks certain to be won by Willie Mullins, who saddles Mourad (Paul Townend) and Mikael d´Haguenet (Ruby Walsh). The latter is right back to his best and has won his last 3 races easily enough, but despite Ruby, we feel that Mourad, who has been running in top company, has possibly the better chance. The other two graded races look slightly sub-standard. The novice chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 17.00 can go to Carloaswayback (Paul Nolan/Robbie Power), who can defeat stable companion Far Away So Close (Davy Russell), while half an hour later Medical Card (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon), Crash (Michael Hourigan/ Adrian Heskin) and Four Commanders (Mouse Morris/ Russell) clash over 3 miles. They finished in that order in a similar race at Naas at New Year, but at these weights we expect Crash to come out on top this ti me.

Navan - betting forecast:
1. Race: Ash Supreme - Tennis Cap - Hawk Flight
2. Race: Mikael D`Haguenet - Mourad - Forty Foot Tom
3. Race: Maller Tree - Beef To The Heels - Griesenau
4. Race: Ut Love - Sean Airgead - On My Own
5. Race: Far Away So Close - Carloswayback - Nearest The Pin
6. Race: Berties Dream - Crash - Medical Card

7. Race: Sizing Gold - Vincent Row - Defy Logic

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Rest of today´s racing

The going will be very heavy at Haydock this afternoon which will make the 3 1/2 miles of the Grand National Trial at 16.20 CET a real test. The field includes the 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) as well as the first two from this season´s Welsh National Le Beau Bai (Richard Lee/ Charlie Poste) and Giles Cross (Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan). Neither has run since, but at these weights we think that Giles Cross can turn the tables. There are plenty of other possibilties.including top-weight Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham), who is not far off top class but has to give away 12 lbs and more here, and the German-bred Fredo (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello), but both of them could have problems with the ground.

The Grade Two novice hurdle over 3 miles at 15.10 is another open race. Brindisi Breeeze (Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) is our tentative suggestion, but Harry Topper (Kim Bailey/ Sean Quinlan) and Real Milan (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) are two of several dangers. The handicap hurdle at 16.55, also over 3 miles, looks almost impossible but we shall try a tiny each-way bet on Alfie Sherrin. (Jonjo O´Neill/ David Casey).

Wincanton´s Kingswell Hurdle at 16.45 is an important Champion Hurdle trial, and the small field includes 3 serious Cheltenham contenders- Binocular (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy)- the 2010 Cheltenham winner, Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Starluck (David Arbuthnot/ Tom Cannon), who receives 8 lbs from the other pair. Even so, we do not fancy him and also suspect that Celestial Halo will this time get the better of Binocular.

There are also smart hurdlers on view in Ireland, and the Grade two race at Gowran Park at 16.15 looks at the mercy of Zaidpour (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend). The same team can also win the Grade Two chase at 15.05 with Apt Approach, but we narrowly prefer Rubi Light (Robert Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch).

Haydock - betting forecast:
1. Race: Une Artiste - Lexi`S Boy - Moujik Borget
2. Race: Brindisi Breeze - Thehillofuisneach - Harry Topper
3. Race: Featherbed Lane - Restless Harry - Cross Kennon
4. Race: Le Beau Bai - Giles Cross - Always Right

5. Race: Houblon Des Obeaux - Wayward Prince - Tour Des Champs
6. Race: Lackamon - Cannington Brook - Scoter Fontaine
7. Race: Hills Of Aran - Turko - Surenaga

Ascot today

An excellent Saurday card at Ascot today with the Grade One Ascot Chase over nearly 2 3/4 miles at 16.00 CET as the main event. Riverside Theatre (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) won this last year and has not raced since, but we expect him to complete the double. He is the best horse in the field and his earlier second place to Long Run in the King George last year was a good effort. With the stable in top form, the break should be no worry, but Kauto Stone (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) looks a big threat. This half-brother to Kauto Star could be anything, and after an easy win in Ireland, he was runner-up to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek, over a clearly indequate trip. Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and I´msingingtheblues (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) are both top handicappers but unproven in this class, while German-bred Gauvin (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily) was beaten 10 lengths in this last year, but could finish in the money again as long as he stays on his feet.

The Grade Two novice chase at 14.50 is another strong race, with once again Henderson/ Geraghty and Nicholls/ Walsh supplying the favourites in Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti respectively. Although Bobs Worth finished behind his rival at Christmas, we expect him to reverse the form today, while Invictus (King/ Thornton) in receipt of 3 lbs is another danger.

Henderson and Geraghty should also take the opening novice hurdle at 14.15 with Keys, who was a smart bumper and also useful on the flat. The handicaps here looks very tricky. The Minack (Nicholls/ Walsh) has top-weight in the 3 mile chase at 15.25. He has earned his rating, but we are not sure he can give so much weight to Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and the improving Penny Max (Emma Lavelle/ Fehily). The hurdle race at 16.35 is even more open with 18 runners. Our 4 against the field are top-weight Smad Place (King/ Thornton), Art Professor (Venetia Williams/(Sam Thomas), Valid Reason (Dean Ivory/ Moloney) and Bourne (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Keys - Super Duty - Saint Roque
2. Race: Silviniaco Conti - Bobs Worth - Invictus
3. Race: The Minack - Penny Max - Cappa Bleu
4. Race: Riverside Theatre - Kauto Stone - Medermit
5. Race: Smad Place - Swincombe Flame - Art Professor
6. Race: Balder Succes - Hazy Tom - Une Artiste
7. Race: River Maigue - Atlantic Roller - Royal Guardsman

huge crowd expected at Newbury today

Except for Royal Ascot and Cheltenham, large crowds on Friday at a British racetrack are very unusual, but that will be the case at Newbury today, where 20,000 racegoers are expected to watch a fantastic card with several Cheltenham favourites in action. Entry to the racecourse is free, making it even more attractive. Most of the races are from last Saturday´s abandoned card, and it looks very much as if the day will be dominated yet again by the two powerful stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. They go head to head in almost every race, including the Denman Chase over 3 miles at 13.40 CET, in which they each have two of the six runners. Henderson runs Gold Cup winner Long Run (Sam Waley-Cohen) and Burton Port (Barry Geraghty), while Nicholls relies on Tidal Bay (Ruby Walsh) and What Friend (Daryl Jacob), runner-up in this last year and 4th in the Gold Cup and now 10 lbs better off with Long Run. The last-named is course the best horse in the field and has only bee n beaten by Kauto Star (twice) this season; however we feel that the concession of 10 lbs could well prove too much for him. In a race better watched than bet on our selection is the enigmatic Tidal Bay, who has the right man on board to get the best out of him.

The Grade One novice chase at 15.55 also has Nicholls and Henderson runners. but our fancy here is Walkon (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), a bit below par here last time. Sprinter Sacre (Henderson/ Geraghty) should be the star of the opening novice chase at 13.10; He has won both his starts over fences in good style and is favourite for the Arkle. The big betting race of the day is the handicap hurdle at 14.15, known in earlier days as the Schweppes and then the Totesport. With 20 runners this is a really hot event and both Nicholls and Henderson have multiple entries although the unbeaten pair Zarkandar (Walsh) and Darlan (Tony McCoy) look theit first strings. Neither offr much value and we make Olofi (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) our each-way selection.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Huge crowd expected at Newbury today

except for Royal Ascot and Cheltenham, large crowds on Friday at a British racetrack are very unusual, but that will be the case at Newbury today, where 20,000 racegoers are expected to watch a fantastic card with several Cheltenham favourites in action. Entry to the racecourse is free, making it even more attractive. Most of the races are from last Saturday´s abandoned card, and it looks very much as if the day will be dominated yet again by the two powerful stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. They go head to head in almost every race, including the Denman Chase over 3 miles at 13.40 CET, in which they each have two of the six runners. Henderson runs Gold Cup winner Long Run (Sam Waley-Cohen) and Burton Port (Barry Geraghty), while Nicholls relies on Tidal Bay (Ruby Walsh) and What Friend (Daryl Jacob), runner-up in this last year and 4th in the Gold Cup and now 10 lbs better off with Long Run. The last-named is course the best horse in the field and has only bee n beaten by Kauto Star (twice) this season; however we feel that the concession of 10 lbs could well prove too much for him. In a race better watched than bet on our selection is the enigmatic Tidal Bay, who has the right man on board to get the best out of him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Hold Fast - Zaynar
2. Race: Long Run - What A Friend - Tidal Bay
3. Race: Zarkandar - Darlan - Raya Star
4. Race: Vulcanite - Montbazon - Colour Squadron
5. Race: Gullinbursti - Deireadh Re - Pavillon Bleu
6. Race: For Non Stop - Walkon - Mossley
7. Race: Gevrey Chambertin - Shutthefrontdoor - Vrai Vert

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Dubai World Cup Carnival Meeting continues today

The big Meydan meeting continues today and tomorrow, and today´s main feature is the Group Two Al Fahiti Fort over a mile on turf. This race was won last year by Ali Rashid al Raihe´s Derbaas (Tagdh O´Shea), but his owner Sheikh Hamdan now has 4 runners with stable jockey Richard Hills on Doug Watson´s Absaasil. Is any case we expect the finish to be dominated by horses trained by Mike de Kock, who has a good record in this event, or the Godolphin team of 3 runners. De Kock saddles Master of Hounds (Christophe Soumillon) and Viscount Nelson (Kevin Shea), both ex-O´Brien, but our selection is Rio de la Plata (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a top-class miler who has run in some top races; his close second to Exceleberation in the Prix du Moulin last year is the best form in the race.
The other 5 races are all handicaps, and we expect Frankie Dettori to ride several winners in the all-blue first colours of Godolphin.

Plenty of racing today

There is plenty of racing today, but (with the exception of Dubai) mainly of little interest. Please note that Graham Lee was injured yesterday and will therefore not be riding at Musselburgh. His best chance would have been on Ferdy Murphy´s On Gossamer Wings at 15.40 CET, but we in any case prefer Red Tanber (Brian Mactaggart/ Lucy Alexander); he won 3 times in succssion here before running second again over this CD, last time and can win again now. A couple of winners from this card lat year run again, and we think both could score again- Valiana (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) at 15.10 and Dontpaytheferryman (Brian Ellison/ Kyle James) at 16.45.

The most interesting race at Leicester is the limited handicap chase over just short of 3 miles at 17.35. Nicky Henderson, all of whose 3 runners yesterday won as predicted here, saddles 2 runners Skint (Andrew Tinkler) and Prince of Pirates (Tony MCoy). Obviously the latter is prefedred, he is very lightly raced but looks a promising sort. He won his only chase to date, but his jumping was not foot perfect and last-time-out winner Brackloon High (Noel Chance/ Richard Johnson) would be a good each-way alternative. The novice chase at 16.35 has only 6 runners, but still looks very tricky; German-bred Alpha Way (Tom Symonds/ Felix de Giles) has already won 3 times over fences this winter, but this opposition looks tougher and we prefer Five out of Five (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney); he is not very consistent but his stable has hit form this week.

In Ireland, Willie Mullins can continue his winning run at Clonmel. In some races he has more than one runner, but we can assume that Ruby Walsh is on the stable´s number one and we predict a treble for the duo with Bishopsfurze at 15,35, Back in Focus half an hour later and Are Ya Right Chief at 16.40.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Only Wolverhampton today

With both Plumpton and Catterick frozen off, there is once again no turf racing in the U.K. The only racing left is the all-weather fixture at Wolverhampton. With 5 low grade handicaps, one maiden and one seller, this is of course a weak card and punters should tread warily. Richard Guest and Charles Eddery team up with two outsiders who could repay each-way support, Georgebernardshaw in the 9 furlongs handicap at 17.40 CET and Crocodile Bay over 7 furlongs an hour later. Even with 5 runners, the 3yo handicap at 17.10 looks the most interesting race, as they all have a chance. Ex- Godolphin Enery (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is one of them and the same connections can score with Samedi at 18.10, while their newcomer Madrilene at 16. 40 could also be of interest.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Silver Linnet - Hambleton - Cri Na Mara
2. Race: Ebraam - Master Of Disguise - Tombi
3. Race: Madrilene - Stars In Your Eyes - Mister Fizz
4. Race: Enery - Availed Speaker - Roedean
5. Race: Dubai Bounty - Reachforthebucks - Dazzling Valentine
6. Race: Samedi - Luctor Emergo - Masters Club
7. Race: Gala Spirit - Crocodile Bay - Cyflymder

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Cheltenham contenders at Leopardstown

Today´s Leopardstown card is one of the best of the entire season in Ireland, with numerous leading Irish fncies for Cheltenham having their final trials. Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) is reckoned to be the leading Irish hope for the Gold Cup, in which case should win the Hennessy Gold Cup at 16.45 CET, although Bostons Angel (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and China Rock (Mouse Morris/ Andrew Lynch) are both tough opponents.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ut de Sivola - Shadow Catcher - Sportsmaster
2. Race: Catleen - Ros Brin - A Country Girl
3. Race: Captain Conan - Sous Les Cieux - Cash And Go
4. Race: Last Instalment - Lambro - Call The Police
5. Race: Baby Whizz - Concrete And Clay - Cavite Beta
6. Race: Quel Esprit - Bostons Angel - China Rock
7. Race: On The Fringe - Vic Venturi - Viking Splash
8. Race: Dancers Dilemma - Pique Sous - Rear View

jumpers bumpers at Southwell

Once again all racing on turf in the U.K. has been abandoned, and the outlook for the next few days remains poor. All that is left is the jumpers bumpers meeting for N.H. horses on the all-weather at Southwell. The card is not at all punter-friendly, with some very small fields and horses of wildly varying standards running, with hot favourites in most races.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Musselburgh and Naas

Scotland and Ireland are keeping the show on the road as far as N.H. racing is concerned, with all English meetings (including Newbury´s Super Saturday) yet again abandoned today. Musselburgh does bill its card as Cheltenham Trials day, but the quality is far below that which would have been seen at Newbury, although very decent by the normal standards here. However it is hard to see any of today´s runners making any impact at the Festival, the one possible exception being Creekside (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan) in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle for 4yo´s at 15.05 CET. Ferguson has done really well with his ex-Sheikh Mohammed runners over sticks, and Creekside, formerly with John Oxx, is one of the best of them. He was listed class on the flat and made a winning debut over hurdles, beating Uncle Bryn (who reopposes on 5 lbs better terms) easily enough at Catterick. We can certainly imagine Ferguson and Quinlan winning with all 3 of their runners today, as Cry of Freedom i n the Scottish County Hurdle at 16.45 and Cape Dutch at 17.50 also have good chances. We also like the look of Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods) in the handicap chase at 15.35. The Lando gelding, once runner-up in the German Derby, has a big weight here, but if fit enough after a 3 month break, should be able to figure prominently here.

Musselburgh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Cross Of Honour - Ebanour - Kealigolane
2. Race: Creekside - Kie - Uncle Bryn
3. Race: Ostland - Everaard - More Equity
4. Race: Lightening Rod - Ultimate - Santa`s Son
5. Race: Ingleby Spirit - Ubi Ace - Zafranagar
6. Race: Bold Sir Brian - Stopped Out - Chester Lad
7. Race: Cape Dutch - Cotillion - A Bridge Too Far


At Naas, we once again go along with Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh - although their runners will not offer much in the way of value. They can win the opening maiden hurdle at 14.15 with the ex-Aga Khan Shamar, and another maiden at 15.25 with Lord Gale. Blackstairmountain also has a good chance in the novice chase at 4.50 but Bog Warrior (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell) looks a big danger. He has won all his completed starts, but fell behind Blackstairmountain in a Grade One at Christmas; perhaps he will make up for that mishap now. Mullins can round off a good day by taking the bumper at 17.30 with Mozoltov, ridden by his son Paddy, but has no runner in the day´s most interesting event, the beginners chase at 17.00. We can ignore his poor performance last time in a Grade One at Leopardstown, but he was the best of these over hurdles and also has a fine course record.

Naas - betting forecast:
1. Race: Shamar - Midnight Oil - Bat Masterson
2. Race: Bog Warrior - Blackstairmountain - Donnas Palm
3. Race: Lord Gale - Lean Times - Top Spin
4. Race: Mister First - Profit Margin - Paradis De Thaix
5. Race: Sorted - Black Mac - Buck Breeze
6. Race: Shinrock Paddy - Ninetieth Minute - Gates Of Rome
7. Race: Mozoltov - Clonbanan Lad - The Crafty Butcher

3 all-weather meetings today

There are 3 all-weather meetings today, but all of very low standard. Most interesting feature of Kempton´s card is the return of Richard Hughes after a winter spent in warmer climes. He has several promising rides, notably James Tate´s Hawawi in the mile handicap at 17.10 CET. Two longhots here who might be worth a small each-way interest are Jimmy the Lollipop (Neil Mulholland/ Micky Fenton) at 16.00 and Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Frankie McDonald) at 17.45. Promised Wings is a 3/4 brother to Payback (J. Butler/ Liam Keniry), who runs in the 3yo maiden that opens the Lingfield card at 1335. He was trained by Jens Hirschberger last season and ran in decent company, although it is hard to predict how he will fare here. Best race here is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.45, which should go to top-weight Palace Moon (Wilf Knight/ Jim Crowley). The evening meeting at Wolverhampton is best left alone, although German-bred Querido (Paddy Butler/ Miss M. Bryant ) has a good each-way chance in the amateur riders handicap at 19.20.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mishrif - Big Bay - Sermons Mount
2. Race: Kickingthelilly - Haafhd Handsome - Naughtical
3. Race: Cantor - Penbryn - Missionaire
4. Race: Viva Ronaldo - Hawawi - George Guru
5. Race: Shalambar - Rasheed - Boston Blue
6. Race: Sole Danser - Rightcar - Chjimes

Friday, February 10, 2012

4 N.H. meetings today

all turf racing is off again, and the prospects for the weekend do not look encouraging (see next item).
Strictly speaking, the Kempton card (orginally a jumps fixture) is not a flat meeting, but N.H., as all 7 races are so-called "jumpers bumpers" run on the all-weather track. This is easily the most interesting card of the day, as Nicky Henderson has rerouted several of his stars to this meeting as they are all in need of a race before Cheltenham. Pride of place goes to Oscar Whisky (ridden like all the others by Barry Geraghty) at 18.25 CET. He is one of the best hurdlers around, winner of 9 of his 12 starts, and third in Champion Hurdle, for which he is again being trained. He has never run on the flat, but if he runs to anywhere his N.H. rating, he can hardly lose here. Sir Harry Ormesher (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), a decent hurdles handicapper, can follow him home at a respectable distance. Henderson can also score at 15.05 with Trozulon and at 15.40 with Tetlami.
The cards at Southwell this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening are as usual very poor. Joe Fanning is riding at both meetings and he can land an across-the-card treble for Mark Johnston with debutant Colour Guard at 17.10 wlth Queen of Denmark at 20.10 and Captivity half an hour later.
There are some large fields in Ireland, and the 10 1/2 furlongs handicap at 20.20 at Dundalk looks the best betting race of the day. German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey) won a maiden here in good style last time, and should again figure prominently. However the one to beat is surely Mutasareb (A.Oliver/ Joseph O´Brien), who has finished first or second on his 6 starts here since November, including 3 wins this year. Should he win, this would be a good indication to the chances of Johnnys Legacy (Jessica Harrington/ Shane Foley) in the following maiden, as he was only beaten a short head by Mutasareb here 3 weeks ago.

Betting forecast at Kempton:
1. Race: Trozulon - Valdez - Dorset Naga
2. Race: Tetlami - Hard To Swallow - The Strawberry One
3. Race: Kasbadali - Court In Session - Sweet Irony
4. Race: Call Me A Star - Glorious Twelfth - Midnight Minx
5. Race: Clerk`S Choice - Secret Tune - Barwell Bridge
6. Race: Kangaroo Court - Tatispout - Harry Hunt
7. Race: Oscar Whisky - Sir Harry Ormesher - Milgen Bay

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Wolverhampton, Thurles and Meydan

once again, all turf racing in the U.K. has been abandoned. The all-weather meeting scheduled for this evening at Wolverhampton will now be staged this afternoon. The Irish N.H. meeting at Thurles go ahead; expect Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh to continue their winning run.
The best racing by far comes from the Dubai World Cup Carnival in Meydan. Main event is the Group Two al Maktoum Challenge over 9 furlongs on tapeta at 18.30 CET. This race has been totally dominated in recent years by Godolphin and Mike de Kock and that will probably be the case again, with Dubai Prince (Frankie Dettori) and Master of Hounds (Christophe Soumillon) probably their best chances.

Betting forecast at Meydan:
1. Race: Albar Lotois - Sahib Du Clos - Periander
2. Race: Mr Brock - Honour System - Trois Rois
3. Race: Mehdi - Dark Matter - Surfer
4. Race: Jedi - Mikhail Glinka - Songcraft
5. Race: Bold Silvano - Barbecue Eddie - Sandagiyr
6. Race: Biondetti - Haatheq - Mendip
7. Race: War Monger - Mutahadee - Storm Chispazo

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

only Kempton today

with the abandonment of all 3 N.H. fixtures today, the all-weather card at Kempton has been moved to the afternoon and stages the only racing in the U.K. The outlook for the next few days is mixed; while it remains frozen in most parts of the east and south, it seems to be much warmer in the west (e.g. Taunton tomorrow) and in the north and Scotland, where Musselburgh is putting on an extra meeting on Saturday with a good card. Prospects for the excellent Newbury card on Saturday look about 50/50 at present.
Obviously the Kempton card is very weak and consists of 7 low-grade handicaps and a claimer, which seems to be at the mercy of Satwa Laird (David Simcock/ Jamie Spencer) at 16.55 CET. The 3yo handicaps are certainly the most interesting events. They go over 5 furlongs at 16.25, when we expect Lady Caprice (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Chris Catlin) to complete a 2012 hattrick. The 7 furlongs race at 17.30 looks quite tricky, with 4 of the 6 runners winner last time out. We have a slight preference for Pale Orchid (David Evans Luke Morris), who has shown much improved form since moving to this stable. Half an hour later we fancy Spartilla (James Given/ James Sullivan) over 1 mile 3 furlongs, he was an easy winner over this CD lst time. That was a very poor race, but so is this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: White Shift - Silver Linnet - Porthgwidden Beach
2. Race: The Catenian - Laser Blazer - Prickles
3. Race: Lady Caprice - Majestic Rose - Russian Bullet
4. Race: Satwa Laird - Russian Ice - April Fool
5. Race: Discoverer - Pale Orchid - Fairway To Heaven
6. Race: Spartilla - Astroscarlet - Cotes Du Rhone
7. Race: Rightcar - Dingaan - Belinsky
8. Race: Lastkingofscotland - Katmai River - Mack`S Sister

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Lingfield and Wolverhampton

with the N.H. meetings at Market Rasen and Sedgefield both abandoned (and more abandonments looking very likely this week), there is only all-weather action today.
Wolverhampton stages an additional fixture and there are some small fields; in fact, normal each-way betting is possible in none of the 6 races. Luctur Emergo (Keith Dalgliesh/ Joe Fanning) and Gabrial´s King (Ian Williams/ Paul Hanagan) met over this CD last Thursday, when the former won by a length. They clash again in the 3yo handicap at 17.30 CET, and possibly the latter, now 6 lbs better off, may be able to reverse the placings. Our main fancy here is Kie (Donald McCain/ Hanagan), who runs in the 2 mile handicap at 17.00. This is a very bad race, and Kie, who has won twice over hurdles, has a clear chance off bottom weight.
There are bigger fields at Southwell but the quality is not much better. The best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.45 with several possibilities. Brian Ellison holds a strong hand here with Global Village (Barry McHugh) and Upper Lambourn (Tony Hamilton), both in good form and with a good CD record; we have a slight preference for bottom-weight Joe le Taxi (Mark Johnston(/Martin Lane), who won 4 races on the all-weather last year, including this CD. The card opens with 2 handicaps for amateur riders; our best strategy here is to ignore form altogether (they are all poor and inconsistent performers anyway) and back the most experienced riders - in this case Serena Brotherton and Simon Walker.

Betting forecast Southwell:
1. Race: Harrys Yer Man - Kingaroo - Yossi
2. Race: Phoenix Flame - Apache Warrior - Dunaskin
3. Race: Heidi`s Delight - Magilini - Claretintheblood
4. Race: Drawnfromthepast - Argentine - Spic `N Span
5. Race: Derivatives - Aqua Ardens - Coral Sands
6. Race: Global Village - Joe Le Taxi - Upper Lambourn
7. Race: Samasana - J J Leary - Pink Evie
8. Race: Hunters Belt - Jawaab - Unex Picasso

Monday, February 06, 2012

Ayr and Wolverhampton

Ayr, on the west coast of Scotland, is often the warmest place in Britain when the weather is bad and that is the case at the moment. So there are no problems with today´s card - the first turf racing in the U.K. for 5 days -although the fields are small.
Irish trainer Gordon Elliott has an excellent strike rate here and has fancied runners in the first 3 races. In fact he has runners in the opening mares novice hurdle at 14.30 CET, penalised Mae´s Choice (Jason Maguire) and debutante Narjawa (Davy Condon), who had winning form on the flat for John Oxx. The former is clearly very talented and has won both her hurdle starts, but at these weights the latter must also have a chance, as has recent winner Lucia Bay(Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) as well. Don´t Back Down (Elliott/ Davy Russell) has Sydney Paget (Donald McCain/ Maguire) and Becausewecan (Mark Johnston/ Richie McGrath) to beat in the novice hurdle at 15.00, while there are only 3 runners in the novice chase at 15.35. Elliott´ s runner Eight is my Number (Maguire) is quite useful and gets weight from the other two, but they are both decent performers.
The all-weather card at Wolverhampton is very low grade. The 7 furlongs seller at 16.25 should lie between the two 10yo´s Unlimited (Tony Carroll/ David Probert) and Zomerlust (John Quinn/ Matt O´Connell); the latter is higher rated, but we prefer the former, who won this race last year. Mark Johnston produces an interesting newcomer in the maiden race at 18.30, Belle Josephine (Joe Fanning), who cost 460,000 guineas as a yearling; she has Red Shuttle (Noel Quinlan/ Adam Kirby), who ran well at Lingfield 12 days ago, to beat.

Betting forecast Ayr:
1. Race: Mae`s Choice - Lucia Bay - Narjawa
2. Race: Sydney Paget - Dont Back Down - Becausewecan
3. Race: Lie Forrit - Blenheim Brook - Eight Is My Number
4. Race: Proud Times - What A Dream - Saddle Pack
5. Race: Posh Bird - Neptune Equester - Etxalar
6. Race: Dickie Henderhoop - Legbeforewicket - Ancient Times
7. Race: Big Water - I`m A Gangster - Grand Shift

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Big Zeb v Sizing Europe at Punchestown

The Tied Cottage Chase over 2 miles at 15.55 CET at Punchestown today is only a Grade Two in name, but has a Grade One field, with Ireland´s two top two-milers in opposition, Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power) and Sizing Europe (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch). It is virtually a match, as the only other runner has no chance, but still a fascinating contest. They have met on several occasions, but have almost exactly the same profile and have each beaten each other - in this race last year they were first and second, but at Cheltenham last year Sizing Europe was the convincing winner with Big Zeb runner-up. Both have won on heavy ground, but in our view this could slightly favour Big Zeb, but basically this is a race to enjoy but not to bet on.

Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh continue to carry all before them in Ireland and although they have no runners in the big race, they could clean In the rest of the card, as they did last year. We expect them to win the first two races with Allure of Illusion at 14.20, bound to be odds-on, and Simenon in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 14.50; he was a smart flat performer for Andrew Balding and is expected to do even better over jumps. Mullins has 2 runners in the handicap hurdle at 15,20, with Ruby on top-weIght Sergent Guib´s, who is likely to start favourite. However stable companion Our Monty (Paul Townend) is probably equally dangerous in receIpt of 20 lbs. These two, together with German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ PF Mangan) are having their second start after a break, which is always risky. Perhaps the much-improved Really Unique (JJ Walsh/ PT Enright) could be an alternative, although moving up in grade and distance.

The handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles, the Grand National trial at 16.25, is another very tricky race. Mullins and Walsh again have the likely favourite here in the relatively inexperienced but very promising Up the Beat, however we have slight preference for Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/ Adrian Heskin). Mullins puts up his son Paddy on Scotsirish in the cross-country at 16.55 and he also has good prospects, although Enda Bolger usually wins this race. He now saddles 3, including oldtimer Garde Champetre (Nina Carberry), who has won this race twice before. Garde Champetre was a lucky winner last time at Cheltenham, when Scotsirish (among others) took the wrong course, and we think this situation will be put right today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Allure Of Illusion - King Vuvuzela - Present Potential
2. Race: Trifolium - Caolaneoin - Joxer
3. Race: Sergent Guib`s - Sword Fish - Blackwell Synergy
4. Race: Big Zeb - Sizing Europe - Imperial Shabra
5. Race: Up The Beat - In Great Form - Drive On Jim
6. Race: Scotsirish - Garde Champetre - Sartorious
7. Race: Mister Hotelier - Big Phil - Expressaninterest

No racing in U.K. today

The winter continues to hamper racing in Britain and even the all-weather tracks have problems because of snow (e.g. Wolverhampton yesterday). Today´s Kempton meeting has been abandoned (snow on the track) while the N.H. meetings at Fontwell and Musselburgh have been abandoned because of frost. Fortunately the situation is not so bad in Ireland and the big Punchestown fixture goes ahead as planned (although the going will be heavy).

Saturday, February 04, 2012

Later: Fairyhouse goes ahead!

Fairyhouse has passed its second inspection and racing goes ahead.

Lingfield and Wolverhampton

Today´s two all-weather cards are of course far less interesting than the jumps meetings would have been, but Lingfield does stage a good handicap over a mile at 16.00 CET. This looks wide open, although quite clearly Prince of Burma (Jeremy Gask/ Ian Mongan) and Tarooq (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) have the best recent form. However this has not escaped the attention of the handicapper and they have both shot up the weights as a result. We will take a chance on veteran Smokey Oakey (Mark Tompkins/ Danny Brock), owned by Oscar-winning Judi Dench; his recent efforts over hurdles have not been great and he has not run on the flat for ages, but we have not forgotten the way he won the Lincoln in 2008 off a much higher rating. This is his first run on the all-weather and possibly the old boy will be inspired to a better performance. The 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.35 is also a decent event, and our fancies are Exemplary (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and First Avenue (Laura Mangan/ Fergus Sweeney), both winners last time over 2 miles, but in our view equally effective at this trip.

Lingfield - betting forecast:
1. Race: Monadreen Dancer - Graceful Spirit - Saucy Buck
2. Race: Marvo - Lutine Charlie - Twinkled
3. Race: Cut The Cackle - Waabel - Captain Dimitrios
4. Race: Chjimes - Diamond Vine - Court Applause
5. Race: Prince Of Burma - Tarooq - Titan Triumph
6. Race: Art Scholar - Exemplary - First Avenue
7. Race: Falcon`s Reign - Palmyra - Search And Rescue
8. Race: Roxelana - Burnhope - Infortual


The strongest field at Wolverhampton meets in the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.40. This is another open race in which both top-weight Hazzard County (David Simcock/ Laura Pike) and bottom-weight Tamareen (Richard Fahey/ Freddie Tylicki) are on our short list. Best bet here is 9yo La Estrella (Don CantIllon/ Dane O´Neill) in the 1 1/2 mile claimer at 17.15. He is almost unbeatable in this grade and has won 14 races in the past 15 months.

Wolverhampton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Monsieur Pontaven - Gala Spirit - Look For Love
2. Race: Piscean - Norville - Tamareen
3. Race: Son Vida - Aquarian Spirit - Archie Rice
4. Race: Maison Brillet - Mount Abora - Face Value
5. Race: La Estrella - Halla San - Country Road
6. Race: Performing Pocket - Place That Face - Strike A Pose
7. Race: Mccool Bannanas - Beetuna - Excuse Me