Monday, February 06, 2012

Ayr and Wolverhampton

Ayr, on the west coast of Scotland, is often the warmest place in Britain when the weather is bad and that is the case at the moment. So there are no problems with today´s card - the first turf racing in the U.K. for 5 days -although the fields are small.
Irish trainer Gordon Elliott has an excellent strike rate here and has fancied runners in the first 3 races. In fact he has runners in the opening mares novice hurdle at 14.30 CET, penalised Mae´s Choice (Jason Maguire) and debutante Narjawa (Davy Condon), who had winning form on the flat for John Oxx. The former is clearly very talented and has won both her hurdle starts, but at these weights the latter must also have a chance, as has recent winner Lucia Bay(Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) as well. Don´t Back Down (Elliott/ Davy Russell) has Sydney Paget (Donald McCain/ Maguire) and Becausewecan (Mark Johnston/ Richie McGrath) to beat in the novice hurdle at 15.00, while there are only 3 runners in the novice chase at 15.35. Elliott´ s runner Eight is my Number (Maguire) is quite useful and gets weight from the other two, but they are both decent performers.
The all-weather card at Wolverhampton is very low grade. The 7 furlongs seller at 16.25 should lie between the two 10yo´s Unlimited (Tony Carroll/ David Probert) and Zomerlust (John Quinn/ Matt O´Connell); the latter is higher rated, but we prefer the former, who won this race last year. Mark Johnston produces an interesting newcomer in the maiden race at 18.30, Belle Josephine (Joe Fanning), who cost 460,000 guineas as a yearling; she has Red Shuttle (Noel Quinlan/ Adam Kirby), who ran well at Lingfield 12 days ago, to beat.

Betting forecast Ayr:
1. Race: Mae`s Choice - Lucia Bay - Narjawa
2. Race: Sydney Paget - Dont Back Down - Becausewecan
3. Race: Lie Forrit - Blenheim Brook - Eight Is My Number
4. Race: Proud Times - What A Dream - Saddle Pack
5. Race: Posh Bird - Neptune Equester - Etxalar
6. Race: Dickie Henderhoop - Legbeforewicket - Ancient Times
7. Race: Big Water - I`m A Gangster - Grand Shift