Big Zeb v Sizing Europe at Punchestown

The Tied Cottage Chase over 2 miles at 15.55 CET at Punchestown today is only a Grade Two in name, but has a Grade One field, with Ireland´s two top two-milers in opposition, Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power) and Sizing Europe (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch). It is virtually a match, as the only other runner has no chance, but still a fascinating contest. They have met on several occasions, but have almost exactly the same profile and have each beaten each other - in this race last year they were first and second, but at Cheltenham last year Sizing Europe was the convincing winner with Big Zeb runner-up. Both have won on heavy ground, but in our view this could slightly favour Big Zeb, but basically this is a race to enjoy but not to bet on.

Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh continue to carry all before them in Ireland and although they have no runners in the big race, they could clean In the rest of the card, as they did last year. We expect them to win the first two races with Allure of Illusion at 14.20, bound to be odds-on, and Simenon in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 14.50; he was a smart flat performer for Andrew Balding and is expected to do even better over jumps. Mullins has 2 runners in the handicap hurdle at 15,20, with Ruby on top-weIght Sergent Guib´s, who is likely to start favourite. However stable companion Our Monty (Paul Townend) is probably equally dangerous in receIpt of 20 lbs. These two, together with German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ PF Mangan) are having their second start after a break, which is always risky. Perhaps the much-improved Really Unique (JJ Walsh/ PT Enright) could be an alternative, although moving up in grade and distance.

The handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles, the Grand National trial at 16.25, is another very tricky race. Mullins and Walsh again have the likely favourite here in the relatively inexperienced but very promising Up the Beat, however we have slight preference for Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/ Adrian Heskin). Mullins puts up his son Paddy on Scotsirish in the cross-country at 16.55 and he also has good prospects, although Enda Bolger usually wins this race. He now saddles 3, including oldtimer Garde Champetre (Nina Carberry), who has won this race twice before. Garde Champetre was a lucky winner last time at Cheltenham, when Scotsirish (among others) took the wrong course, and we think this situation will be put right today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Allure Of Illusion - King Vuvuzela - Present Potential
2. Race: Trifolium - Caolaneoin - Joxer
3. Race: Sergent Guib`s - Sword Fish - Blackwell Synergy
4. Race: Big Zeb - Sizing Europe - Imperial Shabra
5. Race: Up The Beat - In Great Form - Drive On Jim
6. Race: Scotsirish - Garde Champetre - Sartorious
7. Race: Mister Hotelier - Big Phil - Expressaninterest