Saturday, February 11, 2012

Musselburgh and Naas

Scotland and Ireland are keeping the show on the road as far as N.H. racing is concerned, with all English meetings (including Newbury´s Super Saturday) yet again abandoned today. Musselburgh does bill its card as Cheltenham Trials day, but the quality is far below that which would have been seen at Newbury, although very decent by the normal standards here. However it is hard to see any of today´s runners making any impact at the Festival, the one possible exception being Creekside (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan) in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle for 4yo´s at 15.05 CET. Ferguson has done really well with his ex-Sheikh Mohammed runners over sticks, and Creekside, formerly with John Oxx, is one of the best of them. He was listed class on the flat and made a winning debut over hurdles, beating Uncle Bryn (who reopposes on 5 lbs better terms) easily enough at Catterick. We can certainly imagine Ferguson and Quinlan winning with all 3 of their runners today, as Cry of Freedom i n the Scottish County Hurdle at 16.45 and Cape Dutch at 17.50 also have good chances. We also like the look of Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods) in the handicap chase at 15.35. The Lando gelding, once runner-up in the German Derby, has a big weight here, but if fit enough after a 3 month break, should be able to figure prominently here.

Musselburgh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Cross Of Honour - Ebanour - Kealigolane
2. Race: Creekside - Kie - Uncle Bryn
3. Race: Ostland - Everaard - More Equity
4. Race: Lightening Rod - Ultimate - Santa`s Son
5. Race: Ingleby Spirit - Ubi Ace - Zafranagar
6. Race: Bold Sir Brian - Stopped Out - Chester Lad
7. Race: Cape Dutch - Cotillion - A Bridge Too Far


At Naas, we once again go along with Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh - although their runners will not offer much in the way of value. They can win the opening maiden hurdle at 14.15 with the ex-Aga Khan Shamar, and another maiden at 15.25 with Lord Gale. Blackstairmountain also has a good chance in the novice chase at 4.50 but Bog Warrior (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell) looks a big danger. He has won all his completed starts, but fell behind Blackstairmountain in a Grade One at Christmas; perhaps he will make up for that mishap now. Mullins can round off a good day by taking the bumper at 17.30 with Mozoltov, ridden by his son Paddy, but has no runner in the day´s most interesting event, the beginners chase at 17.00. We can ignore his poor performance last time in a Grade One at Leopardstown, but he was the best of these over hurdles and also has a fine course record.

Naas - betting forecast:
1. Race: Shamar - Midnight Oil - Bat Masterson
2. Race: Bog Warrior - Blackstairmountain - Donnas Palm
3. Race: Lord Gale - Lean Times - Top Spin
4. Race: Mister First - Profit Margin - Paradis De Thaix
5. Race: Sorted - Black Mac - Buck Breeze
6. Race: Shinrock Paddy - Ninetieth Minute - Gates Of Rome
7. Race: Mozoltov - Clonbanan Lad - The Crafty Butcher