Sunday, October 31, 2010

Saint-Cloud today

the big race in France today is the Group One Criterium International for 2yo´s over a mile at 14.35 at Saint-Cloud. This has attracted a very strong field, including 3 British runners - Rerouted (Barry and Michael Hills), Pisco Sour (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Fortune) and Abjer (Clive Brittain/ Richard Hills), all with good form, but we expect the prize to go to Ireland via Aidan O´Brien´s Roderic O´Connor (Johnny Murtagh). The son of Galileo was an excellent runner-up to the top-class Frankel in the Dewhurst Stakes last time, and this is clearly the best form on offer. The best of the French could be Godolphin´ s unbeaten French Navy (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), but Ziyarid (Alain de Royer-Dupre´/ Christophe Lemaire) and Salto (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) are also respected, while Maiguri must prove that his second place in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere was no fluke.

The main supporting feature is the Group The Prix Perth over a mile at 15.40, where there could well be a German winner, as Alianthus (Jens Hirschberger/ Adrie de Vries) comes into the race in top form, having won similar events at Cologne and Düsseldorf. The front-runner is well suited by soft ground and will make them all go today. Unfortunately the Cologne event was a Group Two, so that he has a 2 1/2 kilos penalty, but we still expect him to run a big race. Ex-German Kali (Miriam Bollack-Badel/ Stephane Pasquier) also has a penalty, having won the German 1,000 Guineas, but she has not run since her excellent second place at Chantilly in early June. More dangerous could be Rajsaman (Head/ Davy Bonilla), Skins Game (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Ioritz Mendizibal) and the two Godolphin runners Colonial (Mikael Barzalona) and Royal Revival (Guyon), both trained by Fabre. Usbeke, the other German-trained runner, looks out of his depth here while Forthemllionkiss is a non-runner.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ballet Move - Shareta - Ensemble
2. Race: Modern History - Wonder Charm - Pareo
3. Race: Roderic O`Connor - French Navy - Havane Smoker
4. Race: Marendinio - Aristote - Zimri
5. Race: Colonial - Rajsaman - Alianthus
6. Race: Armanty - Timelord - Italian Wizard
7. Race: Delta Black Sheep - Kalti Rose - Chamouille
8. Race: Question d`Or - Tout En Bleu - Thalamon

Carlisle, Huntingdon and Lingfield

The only flat racing in the U.K today is on the all-weather at Lingfield. Most of the races are low level handicaps, and the main interest will be in the continuing battle for the jockeys championship (which ends on Saturday) between Paul Hanagan and Richard Hughes. Hanagan leads currently by 4 and has 7 rides while Hughes has a full book of 8. In our view, Hanagan´s best chances are on Mark Johnston´s Herostratus at 15.50 CET, Richard Fahey´ s Bohemian Music at 15.20 and the speedy Le Toreador (Kevin Ryan) in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.55, the best race on the card, while Hughes has prospects on Commander Wish and Durgan in the two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap at 14.10 and 14.40, and on Richard Hannon´s Sweet Secret at 17.20. However none of these really stands out, and it is quite conceivable that neither of them will ride a winner.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cantor - Circus Star - Whiplash Willie
2. Race: Rio Royale - Commander Wish - Metropolitan Chief
3. Race: Best One - Durgan - Mushy Peas
4. Race: Lang Shining - Ahlawy - Green Earth
5. Race: Herostatus - Beggar`S Opera - Dakiyah
6. Race: Countess Comet - Bahamian Music - Commerce
7. Race: Nickel Silver - Piscean - Ziggy Lee
8. Race: April Fool - Sweet Secret - Recalcitrant




The jumps racing is much better. especially at Carlisle, where there is a field of 5 in the intermediate chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.40. Weird Al (Ian Williams/ Noel Fehily) is the obvious favourite here, having won his last 4 races and he is indeed unbeaten since his debut almost 3 years ago. He could well go right to the top, but only races sporadically and today we prefer Cape Tribulation (Malcolm Jefferson/ Timmy Murphy), in receipt of 12 lbs and the only one in the field to have run this season. The valuable Cumberland Chase, a 3 1/4 mile handicap at 16.10, looks much more competitive. Palace Merano (Donald McCain/ Graham Lee) runs for the first time for his in.form trainer, having previously been with Willie Mullins. Top-weight Gentle Ranger (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) represents the team that won Ascot´s big handicap chase yesterday, while we have slight preference for the very consistent Bay Cherry (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Blenheim Brook - Sunnyside - Noble Scholar
2. Race: Make It Blossom - Native Coll - The Rustlin Rhino
3. Race: No Supper - Cool Operator - Zahara Joy
4. Race: Weird Al - The Hollinwell - Cape Tribulation
5. Race: Gentle Ranger - Palace Merano - Bay Cherry
6. Race: Roudoudou Ville - Lindseyfield Lodge - Locked Inthepocket
7. Race: Touch Of Spring - Opera North - Serenader




Ian Williams also has good chances at Huntingdon where Wayward Prince (Dougie Costello) can dominate the novice chase over 3 miles at 14.55. The 2 mile handicap chase at 16.00 looks wide open; our 3 against the field are Award Winner (Brendan Powell/ Tony McCoy), Sunday City (Peter Bowen/ Jamie Moore) and bottom-weight Arctic Ben (Henry Daly/ Richard Johnson).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Taketimeout - Richmond - Up To The Mark
2. Race: Wayward Prince - Quentin Collonges - Arkose
3. Race: Mossley - Harvest Song - Hoback Junction
4. Race: Arctic Ben - Sunday City - Knight Legend
5. Race: Buds Dilemma - Mcqueen - Handtheprizeover
6. Race: Amuse Me - Sonic Anthem - Carrig An Uisce

Ireland today

Today sees the final flat meeting on turf of 2010 in Ireland at Leopardstown (from now on there is only all-weather racing at Dundalk), while a good jumps card is scheduled for Cork (assuming the track passes an inspection). Two listed races feature on the Leopardstown card, a 7 furlongs race at 15.10 CET and a 2yo race over 9 furlongs at 15.45. Neither seem very strong, and we hope that Libano (Keagan Latham) can repeat his 2009 victory in the former event, in which he is one of 3 Dermot Weld entries. There are only 5 runners in the 2yo race and Obligation (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan), though probably far from the best juvenile in his powerful stable that has taken this event 7 times already this century, can oblige. The big betting race is the November Handicap over 2 miles at 16.15 with 21 runners. The interesting one here is Pittoni (Charlie Byrnes/ Kevin Manning), who was banned from running for 42 days after his last eye-catching run. Top-weight Majestic Con corde (Weld/ Liam Roche) has a touch of class and rates a big danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Asheerah - Manieree - Wonder Of Wonders
2. Race: Giants Serapis - Diogenes - Saqil
3. Race: Eagle Canyon - Nucals Star - Deire Na Sli
4. Race: Luisant - Stunning View - Croisultan
5. Race: Obligation - Banksters Bonus - Tiz The Shot

6. Race: What A Charm - Pittoni - Baron De`L
7. Race: Waydownsouth - Hawkhill - Super Say
8. Race: Dark Prospect - Saajidah - Prospectorous




At Cork, the Grade 3 novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 can go to Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who was the best of these over hurdles. He receives weight from the smart Beau Micheal (Adrian McGuinness/ Barry Geraghty), who has already won 5 times this year. The Grade 3 novice hurdle at 14.45 has only 5 runners but still looks quite tricky. Tom Hogan has two good chances here with last-time-out-winners Mount Helicon (Joe Cullen) and Moon over Moscow (Ruby Walsh), but the problem here is that none of the runners has form over today´s distance of 3 miles. The big betting race here is the Cork Grand National over 3 1/2 miles at 15.20, but the field looks rather sub-standard. Miss Mitch (Pat Fahy/ Davy Russell), previously with the Alners, has been running in better events but has a big weight here and we prefer the very lightly-weighted Sigma Lifestyle (Meade/ Davy Condon).

Later: Cork goes head after early morning inspection

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Magical Memoir - Silas Mariner - Caracal
2. Race: Mount Helicon - Original Option - Tango Knight
3. Race: Sigma Lifestyle - Streets Of Gold - Operation Houdini
4. Race: Dare To Doubt - Model County Lass - Knockraha Lad
5. Race: Farringdon - Muirhead - Beau Michael
6. Race: Lea Lady - Special Token - Corrick Bridge
7. Race: Valleymount - Thieving Gypsy - Quiet Thought

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Top jumpers in action at Wetherby, Ascot and Naas (Ireland)

Today offers by far the best N.H. racing of the season so far, with top races at Wetherby, Ascot and Naas. Wetherby´s main feature is the Charlie Hall Chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 16.25 CET, which looks very open with two previous winners entered - Deep Purple (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Ollie Magern (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan), but it is not sure that they can give weight to the very useful Nacarat (Tom George/ Sam Thomas) - almost a white horse- and The Tother One (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), while we also have a sneaking fancy for the Queen´s Barbers Shop (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty). While this distance may be his limit, we expect him to make a brave effort. The West Yorkshire Hurdle over the same trip at 15.50 is another strong race with some of the top staying hurdlers entered, notably German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint), who won this last year. We hope that he can double up, although Tidal Bay (Howard Johnson/ Barry Hughes) and Duc de Regniere (Henderson/ Geraghty) both look very dangerous. The listed mares hurdle at 15.15 looks a match between Amber Brook (Twiston-Davies/ Brennan) and Issaquah (Malcolm Jefferson/ Jmes Halliday); the trip seems on the short side for Amber Brook, so we will take the other one.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Osric - Knockavilla - Quell The Storm
2. Race: Amber Brook - Issaquah - Alegralil
3. Race: Duc De Regniere - Tidal Bay - Fair Along
4. Race: The Tother One - Barbers Shop - Deep Purple
5. Race: Karasenir - Rupert Lamb - Lap Of Honour
6. Race: Film Festival - The Darling Boy - Morning Sunshine
7. Race: Dakota Boy - Wot Way Chief - First Stream




Three listed handicaps are the main features as Ascot begins its winter season. All look wide open, and our tentative suggestions are the bottom-weights Silmi (Sue Leech/ RP McLernon) and Free World (Wrren Greatrex/ Wayne Hutchinson) at 16.40, the Philip Hobbs pair German-bred Oldrik (Richard Johnson) and Hibiki (Tom Scudamore) at 17.15, and Panjo Bere (Gary and Josh Moore) and Irish hope Sizing Africa (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) at 17.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lively Fling - Unleashed - Like A Hurricane
2. Race: Pause And Clause - Radium - Othermix
3. Race: Organisateur - Dunraven Storm - Fiulin
4. Race: Take The Breeze - Massini`S Maguire - Carruthers
5. Race: Get Me Out Of Here - Tocca Ferro - Gilded Age
6. Race: You`Re The Top - Sizing Africa - Fiendish Flame

7. Race: Balding Banker - Persian Snow - Natural Spring




There are only 4 runners in the main feature at Naas, a Grade Three chase over 2 miles, but it is still a good race. Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ Mark Walsh) is the form choice after his Grade One win at the Punchestown festival, but we fancy that German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) can beat him in receipt of 11 pounds, especially if the ground comes up soft. Another German-bred Sweet Shock (Michael O´Hare/ Katie Walsh) can take the valuable handicap hurdle at 17.05 if he turns out again after his easy win at Punchestown on Wednesday, Dancing Tornado (Michael Hourigan/ Adrian Heskin) is the class act here but has a huge weight to carry.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Shinrock Paddy - Rigour Back Bob - Carlito Brigante
2. Race: Captain Cee Bee - Psycho - Catch Me
3. Race: The Bull Hayes - Barel Of Laughs - Si C`Etait Vrai
4. Race: Lucky William - Sweeps Hill - Sorceror
5. Race: Cass Bligh - Bluesea Cracker - Gala Dancer
6. Race: Lochan Lacha - Bale O`Shea - Double Seven
7. Race: Kildare Blowin - Sparkling Tara - He`S Our Man

Final meeting of 2010 at Newmarket

Flat racing at Newmarket and Ayr this afternoon, and this evening on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, with easily the best card at Newmarket, staging its final meeting of 2010 with 3 listed races. Godolphin launch a strong challenge in the mile race at 1535 CET with 3 of the 8 runners and stable jockey Frankie Dettori on Alexandros. Equipped with a first-time visor, he is our selection; his form when third in the Dallmayr race at Munich, over a distance that was too far, should be good enough here. Blue Bunting (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi) is the Godolphin runner in the mile race for 2yo fillies at 16.10; she should go well, but this looks a very tough race and we have marginal preference for Aneedah (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Elas Diamond (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore). The 10 furlongs race at 17.20 also has 3 Godolphin runners in the line-up, with Frankie riding the likely favourite Kirklees. He was disappointing last time but can get back on the winning trail here, at the main expense of Penitent (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) and Timepiece (Henry Cecil/ Ian Mongan). The last-named team can in any case take the 10 furlongs event for 2yo´s at 16.45 with the unbeaten Picture Editor. This is not a listed race but is always won by a good horse, and Picture Editor has already been backed for next year´s Derby (despite Frankel who runs for the same connections).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spectacle - Moment Juste - Regal Salute
2. Race: Rien Ne Vas Plus - Joviality - Choral
3. Race: Signor Verdi - Emirates Dream - First Cat
4. Race: Alexandros - Secrecy - Nationalism
5. Race: Aneedah - Elas Diamond - Blue Bunting
6. Race: Picture Editor - Measuring Time - Shooting Gallery
7. Race: Timepiece - Penitent - Kirklees
8. Race: Call To Reason - Clumber Place - Lord Aeryn




The going at Ayr is heavy and the card does not offer any attractive betting propositions. The main event is a 6 furlongs handicap at 15.45, which could go to top-weight Durham Express (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan), who acts well in these conditions.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fine Threads - Sabratha - Jeu De Vivre
2. Race: Karate - Hernando Torres - Red Marling
3. Race: Lake Chini - Benny The Bear - Music Festival
4. Race: Pertemps Networks - Royal Swain - Lady Bluesky
5. Race: Amethyst Dawn - The Fifth Member - Daring Dream
6. Race: Sharp Sovereign - Dean Iarracht - Royal Straight
7. Race: Lakeman - Lordship - Pokfulham
8. Race: Ingleby King - Laura`S Lady - Ulysees




Both Richard Hughes and Paul Hanagan have a full book of 6 rides at Wolverhampton´s evening meeting. Hughes may win the final maiden at 22.20 on Irish-trained Imagination, but on balance Hanagan has the better prospects and can maintain his lead of 5 with one more week to go.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Forever`S Girl - Doc Hay - Perlachy
2. Race: Strictly Pink - Magic Stella - Rowan Spirit
3. Race: Charles Parnell - The Happy Hammer - Cawdor
4. Race: Mattoral - Copper Canyon - Zamina
5. Race: Audemar - Veiled Applause - Akhmatova
6. Race: Imagination - Mongoose Alert - Mutasareb

N.H. racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby

Wetherby starts one of their top meetings today with two listed races on the card - a 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 16.20 CET and a hurdle race for 3yo´s at 16.55. The latter event has 13 runners, 8 of whom have already won and the winner will have to be smart. Nicky Henderson already has his string in good form and sends Grandouet (Barry Geraghty), a 20 lengths winner at Enghien in April, while Paul Nicholls also saddles an ex-French runner in Domtaline (Ruby Walsh), who won by 25 lengths on his British debut. Alan King, who has such a good record with juvenile hurdlers relies on Jubail (Wayne Hutchinson). Bonfire Knight (John Quinn/ Dougie Costello) was useful on the flat and comes from a stable in great form, but has chosen a strong race for his debut. This should be an informative race, but not necessarily one to bet on. However we think that oldie Mister McGoldrick (Sue Smith/ Shane Byrne) has an excellent each-way chance in the listed handicap, despite his 13 years and t op weight; he is an absolute course specialist and has in his time run creditably against far stronger opposition. Frankie Figg (Howard Johnson/ Keith Renwick) and bottom-weight Neptune Questor (Brian Ellison/ Fearghal Davies) are the main dangers. The going is on the firm side at Wetherby, but is expected to be heavy at Uttoxeter, but as long as they can handle the conditions, we expect Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson to win both divisions of the novice hurdle with Kilcrea Kim at 14.30 and Foynes Island at 15.35.

Newmarket, Wolverhampton and Dundalk

The Godolphin stable is in fantastic form at the moment - 4 winners yesterday and we predicted all four!- and we expect them to carry on the good work at Newmarket this afternoon, when Ragsah can win the listed race for 2yo fillies at 16.00 CET and Nafura the fillies handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 17.10, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Frankie Dettori. Ragsah was 4th in the Cheveley Park here, easily the best form in the race and there seems no reason why Sharnberry and Sweet Cecily, well behind then, should do any better this time. Nafura finished 4th over this CD 6 weeks ago behind Calatrava Cape(John Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) with Critical Path (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) 5th, but at these weights we hope that Nagura can reverse the placings.The 6 furlongs race at 17.45 has interesting conditions, as only 2yo´s and 3yo´s are able to run. The juveniles receive a stone from their elders and usually win, and we expect Morache Music (Peter Makin/ Silvestre de Sousa) to be another winner for the younger generation today; Ginger Ted (Richard Guest/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) looks the best of the 3yo´s. Also at Newmarket, Inpursuitoffreedom (Charlie McBride/ Julie Burke) an easy winner at Yarmouth last week, is expected to follow up under a penalty in the apprentice handicap at 16.30.

The only other flat racing today is this evening on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland). t Wolverhampton Paul Hanagan hopes to increase his lead over Richard Hughes in their race for the jockeys championship. This currently stands at 6 after Hughes rode a double here last night, but Hanagan has much better prospects this evening, and can win on Whispering Spirit at 18.40 and One Cool Bex an hour later.

The best race at Dundalk is the 6 furlongs handicap at 20.30. Most of the Irish runners are course specialists who have met each other repeatedly, including Copper Dick and Mountain Coral, first and second in this a year ago, so we prefer the two British raiders, Noverre to Go (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) and the lightly-weighted 3yo Take Ten (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley).

Thursday, October 28, 2010

N.H. racing at Stratford, Fontwell and Clonmel (Ireland)

The most interesting race at Stratford could be the novice hurdle at 16.50 CET. San Remo Bello (Paul Nicholls/ Ian Popham) and Renard d´Irlande (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) both make their British debuts here after showing winning form in the French provinces, while Timesawasting (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) showed good form when runner-up in Ireland. Owen Glendower (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) won in good style at Worcester and looks the one to beat. The beginners chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs at 17.20 is another good race, featuring the fencing debut of the smart hurdler Tell Massini (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), not seen out since falling when favourite at th Cheltenham festival in March. German-bred Fredo and Triggerman were also useful over hurdles so Tell Massini must be at his best to win today.

At Fontwell we expect Rith Bob ( Dai Rees/ Rhys Flint) to win the novice hurdle over the unusual distance of 3 miles 3 furlongs at 17.30. Gary Moore had a winner on the flat yesterday with son Ryan in the saddle, and he can win chase today with course specialist Space Cowboy at 16.00, with elder brother Jamie aboard.

At Clonmel, useful bumper Our Victoria (Colin Bowe/ Barry O´Neill) is expected to get off to a winning start over hurdles at 15.15, and the same goes for Blazing Tempo (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) over fences at 17.15, having her first start for this trainer. Ruby has another winning chance on Adrian Maguire´ s Mr. Warbucks at 16.45, even though he has been off the track since January.

All-weather racing today

All-weather racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Wolverhampton. The Lingfield card is by far the better, with two listed races for fillies, and looks like being another Godolphin bonanza. The stable won the three feature races a year ago and can repeat the feat today. Most interesting runner is ex-German Baila Me (Frankie Dettori), who goes for a repeat win in the fillies race over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 16.40 CET.

She has not run for almost a year but we expect her to win once again from Rosika (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who had no chance here a year ago but ran a great race in the Ebor last time out. Aspectoflove, in the mile race at 16.10 should be another winner for the Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori combination, and we also expect them to take the handicap at 15.40 with lightly-raced Quick Wit, a very easy winner of his only 2010 start.

The card at Wolverhampton is less exciting, but there could be another winner for Godolphin in Rumn (Saeed bin Suroor/ Daragh O´Donohoe), another German-bred who runs in the 2yo fillies maiden at 20.50. The Monsun filly was well beaten on both her starts so far, but tonight´s opposition is much weaker. Otherwise the main interest will be centred on the ongoing battle for the jockeys championship between Paul Hanagan and Richard Hughes. Both have 6 rides here and we expect Hanagan to maintain his lead , currently 8.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

N.H.racing at Punchestown (Ireland) and Haydock

The Punchestown meeting continues today with two beginners chases as the most interesting events. In particular the race over 2 miles at 16.20 CET has attracted some smart hurdlers who are expected to make their mark over fences. Two of the 8 runners are German-bred, with clear preference for Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Paul Carberry) over Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey). Bob Lingo (Tony Mullins/ Mark Walsh), who fell last time, and Healys Bar (Oliver McKiernan/ Paddy Flood) must also be considered, as well as Otay Kawn (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), although the stable is yet to hit top form. The same applies to their runner Definite Edge in the race over 2 1/2 miles at 16.50; there is a huge field - as in most of the races here- and a surprise result cannot be excluded.

The best race at Haydock is the 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle at 16.265. The very lightly raced Mostly Bob (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Riptide (Donald McCain/ Adrian Lane) are two contenders who in the long run will be competing in better races, but today we fancy top-weight Barwell Bridge (Warren Greatrex/ Noel Fehily), who has had the benefit of a recent race and is very smart for this grade. However Riptide fares, we expect his trainer to take the novice hurdle at 18.10 with Drill Sergeant (AP McCoy), who has to concede weight all round but looks better class than his 14 opponents here.

Paul Hanagan vs Richard Hughes

Pretty modest fare on offer at today´s three flat meetings in the U.K. and the main interest will be on the battle for the jockeys championship between Paul Hanagan, who rides at Musselburgh, and Richard Hughes, who is in action at both Nottingham this afternoon and on the all-weather at Kempton this evening. Although Hughes has 14 rides in all (assuming he gets to Kempton in time to ride in the first race) and Hanagan only 6, we do not expect him to eat into Hanagan´s lead, as the northern jockey has in our view much better rides. He currently leads by 8, and with Hughes due to miss the last two days of the official season next Friday and Saturday (he flies to the States to ride at the Breeders Cup) we expect Hanagan to be crowned champion jockey for the first time.

He has definite winning chances on Grissom in the opening 5 furlongs handicap at 14.40 CET, Blue Destination in the 2yo maiden at 16.15, Crimson Knot in the 2yo handicap 17.25 and the top-weights Lesleys Choice at 18.00 and Hong Kong Island half an hour later. In theory he must also have good prospects of winning the main event, a 2 mile handicap at 16.50, on Brian Ellison´s Palomar after that one´s good fifth place on the Cesarewitch. However that tough race was only11 days ago and he has been put up on the weights, so we prefer the in-form filly Graceful Descent (Jim Goldie/ Franny Norton).

At Nottingham this afternoon, Hughes is due to partner Appyjack in the seller at 14.30, Conjurors Bluff in the 2yo maiden at 15.00, Charles Camoin in the second division half an hour later - here Stoute´s Academy (Ryan Moore) looks hard to oppose, although we are also interested in the two Monsun colts in the Godolphin colours in the two divisions here- Love you Louis in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.05, Vertueux in the 2 mile handicap 16.40 and Compton Blue in the mile handicap at 17.15. Vertueux probably has the best chance of these, his saddle slipped last time but he won his two previous races, but none of them exactly grabs the imagination.

Hughes has slightly better prospects at Kempton this evening, particularly with Ayam Zainah for Mick Channon in the opening classified race at18.40, Twice Bitten for JamieToller in the 2yo maiden an hour later, and Woolston Ferry for David Pinder in the final mile handicap at 22.10.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

International fields at Saint-Cloud

The Group Three Prix de Flore over 2100 metres for fillies at 15.15 CET is the big race in France today and has attracted an international field, including two runners trained in Germany - Tech Exceed (Andreas Wöhler/ Dominique Boeuf) and Indian Breeze (Jens Hirschberger/ Franck Blondel). Both are up to the required standard but this looks a very strong renewal, and we like the chances of English raider Aviate (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally).

The French defense is also strong and we are interested in how the Monsun daughter La Boum runs, after she was most unfairly disqualified last time out after finishing third in a better race on Arc weekend. There are several more German runners on the card, and we especially like the prospects of Eminem (Norbert Sauer/ Henk Grewe) in a conditions race over the same trip at 16.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Le Bosphore - Tingly - Backswing
2. Race: Black Sheep - Inscrutable - Fortuneo
3. Race: Polarena - Shamardanse - Belle Angelique
4. Race: Baahama - Fleur Enchantee - Indian Breeze
5. Race: Roatan - Babyla - Shany De Loriol
6. Race: Lifting Cloud - Hermoun - Balajo
7. Race: Vitassana - Meora - Rendelsham
8. Race: Hopespringshere - Quid Flight - Grand D`Auteuil

N.H. racing at Punchestown (Ireland) and Taunton

The Taunton card is not very exciting, but the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.10 CET could be a fast and furious affair, with front-runner Woodlark Island (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) expected to set a strong pace. The 4yo is in great form and loves the fast ground; he is running for the fourth time in three weeks but that does seem to bother him. Agente Romano (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) looks the main danger.

Paul Nicholls´ Organisateur (Ian Popham) is likely to start at a short price in the novice hurdle at 15.40, but he has to concede a lot of weight and may prefer softer ground; even though he is probably the best horse in the field, he is not a good bet at the likely odds.

Paul Carberry looks the jockey to follow at Punchestown. He can take the first two races on Perfect Smile at 15.15 and Aitmatov half an hour later, both for Noel Meade, and he also has chances on Island Oscar for PA Roche in the novice hurdle at 16.15 and Lean Times in the maiden hurdle at 17.15. again for Meade- although this one may have to play second fiddle to Maggie Connolly (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). The German-bred Aitmatov is the best bet here and should outclass this opposition.

Catterick and Yarmouth

Very poor racing at today´s two U.K. flat meetings - 13 of the 16 races run at Catterick and Yarmouth are low-grade handicaps. At the former track the two divisions of the 7 furlongs handicap are the most interesting events. At 15 .20 CET we like Trans Sonic (Dean O´Meara/ John Fahy). he was previously regarded as an all-weather specialist and won 4 races at Southwell earlier in the year, but ran out a good winner over this CD last time out and still seems nicely handicapped. Keys of Cyprus (David and Adrian Nicholls) also has a chance, but this team have better prospects in the second division at 16.50 with Cara´s Request, currently in top form and also a recent CD winner.

If there are any decent horses running today, they can only be found in the 2yo maiden over a mile at 15.30 at Yarmouth. This looks quite a strong race for the track, with Sir Michael Stoute´s Sea Moon (Ryan Moore) the likely hot favourite. He is highly rated in his stable and made an excellent debut recently, but there are several well-bred newcomer in the field- notably Godolphin´s German-bred Raw Spirit (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) to overcome, as well as Little Rocky (David Slimcock/ William Buick), also a good runner-up on his debut. Frankie stays on to partner James Boyle´s top-weight Roderigo de Freitas in the 3yo handicap over 9 furlongs at 17.30, and this recent Windsor winner can score again under a penalty, as can Franki J (Des Donovan/ Sophie Doyle), who has top weght in the 7 furlongs 3yo handicap at 16.00. The filly has won twice over this CD with this rider aboard and was particularly impressive when making all here last week.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Irish racing today

There is flat racing in Ireland today at Leopardstown and jumping at Galway. Best event is the Group Three race for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.25 CET at the former track, where both Dermot Weld and Aidan O ´Brien saddle 3 runners. Our fancy is Weld´s Dubai Prince (Pat Smullen), who created a good impression when winning his only start. O´Brien´s stable jockey Johnny Murtagh partners David Wachman´s Warning Flag, which could be an indication of the strength of the Coolmore runners. Weld could be in for a profitable afternoon, as we also expect Eva´s Time (Smullen) to take the opening race for 2yo maiden fillies and later Famous Name (Smullen) can outclass the opposition in the listed race over 10 furlongs at 17.55. The Aga Khan´s Riynaaz (John Oxx/ Fran Berry) is a possible danger though.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Eva`S Time - Emiyna - Brown Butterfly
2. Race: Dubai Prince - Warning Flag - Ruling
3. Race: Port Elizabeth - Ceist Nua - Mujady Star
4. Race: Tiz The Shot - Pirate Chest - Justification
5. Race: Balladiene - Lady Montague - Ted Dolly
6. Race: Super Say - Hedaaya - Final Flashback
7. Race: Famous Name - Riynaaz - Choose Me
8. Race: Silver Shuffle - Aliwiyya - Leah Claire



Weld also has runners at Galway and can take the bumper at 18.35 with Masdar (Robbie McNamara). The other flat race,a qualifying event at 17.05, could be interesting, but Noel Meade´s smart hurdler Donnas Palm (Nina Carberry) should be good enough; ex-German Quartetto (Mervyn Torrens/ Katie Walsh) could run into a place here. Katie´s brother Ruby can also get on the scoresheet with Willie Mullins´ Apt Manor in the mares maiden hurdle at 16.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Buck Barrow - Prima Vista - Ephorus
2. Race: Apt Manor - Three Monkeys - Strike An Ark
3. Race: Prosperity Square - I Hear A Symphony - Diyla
4. Race: Donnas Palm - Natural High - Gusda
5. Race: Berties Dream - Jessies Dream - Venalmar
6. Race: Wise Old Owl - Old Si - Noble Concorde
7. Race: Masdar - Rebel Fitz - Battling Boru

Leicester, Kempton and Southwell

The most interesting feature of today´s 3 flat fixtures in the U.K. is that Godolphin have runners at all 3 meetings and should certainly have some winners. Stable jockey Frankie Dettori travels to Leicester for just one ride, the ex-German Peligroso in a conditions race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 CET. He found 1 3/4 miles too far last time, but this trip is well within reach and he will have the very soft ground he needs.

He only has 3 opponents today, the best of whom is probably Via Galilei (Gary Moore/Richard Hughes), but it will be disappointing if Peligroso does for win this easily, although he will be at a very short price. The mile handicap half an hour later is a better betting race. The very lightly-raced Heddwyn (Marcus Tregoning/ Seb Sanders) and Green Destiny (William Haggas/ Adam Beschizza) are certainly capable of improvement, but we prefer the top-weight Fastnet Storm (Tom Tate/ Neil Callan), very reliable at this level.

On the all-weather at Kempton Godolphin have two runners engaged in the maiden race for 2yo´s at 15.40 - Splash Point (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Adjebi) and Jaridh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan), but Zain Shamardal (Brian Meehan/ William Buick) looks a tough opponent. Buick also rides John Gosden´s Fortunateencounter, the danger to Godolphin´s Alareen (Durcan) in the 2yo fillies maiden half an hour later. Denis Coakley´ s Jovial (John Fahy) has no penalty for a very easy win in an apprentice race last week and can score again at 18.10.
There is also racing on the all-weather at Southwell, where we expect Godophin´s Powerful Melody (Daragh O´Donohoe) to complete a good day for the stable by winning the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.20.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

all jumping today

the flat season turf is drawing to a close in GB and Ireland, and all today´s 5 meetings are N.H. fixtures. It is always wise at this time of year to concentrate on trainers coming into form, and we think that Alan King - who suffered a miserable 2009-10 season. could well be a trainer to watch from now on. He had a couple of winners yesterday, and today top-weight Awesome George (Charlie Huxley) can carry on the good work in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.55 CET at Aintree.
Paul Nicholls is a trainer who takes time before hitting top form, but he can land a double today at his local track Wincanton with Gullible Gordon in the 3 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.55 and That´ll Do in the novice hurdle at 16.30, both partnered by Harry Skelton,
Nigel Twiston-Davies, on the other hand, always starts the season in great form, and he can score a double at Towcester with Red Rouble at 15.00 and Ammunition half an hour later, both ridden by Paddy Brennan and both easy last-time-out winners who can win again under a penalty.
In Ireland, Noel Meade already has his string in good order , and he can land an cross-the-card double with Original Option (Davy Condon) in the 3 mile novice hurdle at 17.00 at Wexford and Realt Dubh (Paul Carberry) at 17.45 at Galway.

Betting forecast Wincanton:
1. Race: Freedom Fire - Robain - Amazing King
2. Race: Gullible Gordon - Templer - Ballyvesey
3. Race: That`Ll Do - Duneen Point - Health Is Wealth
4. Race: Mangonel - Strumble Head - Bollywood
5. Race: Von Galen - Lord Lescribaa - Might As Well
6. Race: Bottman - Royale`S Charter - Great Esteem

Saturday, October 23, 2010

4 jumps meetings today

while the flat season is going out with a flourish, the N.H. season is now really getting under way and there are some good performers in action, notably at Aintree, where the main event is the Old Roan Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 CET. 4 of the 6 runners met over CD in April, where Alberta ´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) was a good winner, with Monet´s Garden (Nicky Richards/ Dougie Costello) third, Tartak (Tom George / Paddy Brennan) fourth and Poquelin (Paul Nicholls/ Barry Geraghty) unseating his jockey. That race was at level weights, but today´s event is a limited handicap and we expect a different result this afternoon, as Alberta´s Run will have to put up a super performance to give weight to these opponents. Monet´s Garden is 12 years old but he loves this track and has already won this race twice. However in our view Tartak is the one to beat at these weights.
Some promising types line up in the Garde Two Persian War novice hurdle at Chepstow at 16.35, where Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Silviano Conti (Paul Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), who have both won their last 3 starts, stand out. The valuable handicap hurdle here at 17.10 can go to Working Title (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass), a very easy winner last time; he is up in the weights, but seemed to have plenty left in the tank.
At Stratford, Paint the Clouds (Wilfred Greatrex/ Leighton Aspell) should win the maiden hurdle at 17.25, while in Ireland we hope to see Araucauria (John Kiely/ Andrew McNamara) -not related to the good German hurdler of a few years ago - take the mares hurdle at 16.15 at Wexford.

Betting forecast Aintree:
1. Race: Mille Chief - Nearby - Westlin` Winds
2. Race: Safari Adventures - Big Burrows - Fortysecond Street
3. Race: Poquelin - Monet`S Garden - Albertas Run
4. Race: Rey Nacarado - Identity Parade - Court Red Handed
5. Race: Character Building - Irish Raptor - Our Jasper
6. Race: Medermit - Rock Noir - Wessex King
7. Race: Scoter Fontaine - Ballybriggan - Mediolanum

two group races at Newbury

Doncaster is not the only racecourse to stage a big race for 2yo´s as the Horris Hill Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.05 CET is also a strong juvenile event. Big Issue (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is very consistent and should be in the money again, while Elzaam (Michael Jarvis/ Richard Hills) is the likely favourite but looks a bit tricky. However we prefer Klammer (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer), who was beaten 10 lengths by Frankel last time, but there is no disgrace in that.
The St. Simon Stakes over 1 1/4 miles at 15.40 is another Grpup Three race. The question mark here is the very lightly-raced 5yo mare Clowance (Roger Charlton/ Richard Hughes). She is certainly good enough, but has clearly had her problems. Poet (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) is another smart performer, but he has to concede weight and this distance may be too far. It is certainly not too far for Jedi (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who is coming down 3 furlongs in trip, but he is also up in grade, and our nbrrow preference is for Whispering Gallery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan), beaten only inches in a similar event last time at Ascot.
Richard Hughes has still not given up hope of becoming champion jockey and he travels on to Kempton´s evening meeting on the all-weather, where he has 7 rides. All of them have some sort of chance, the most likely winner in our view being Tony Carroll´ s Country Road in the claiming race at 20.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thimaar - Tonnerre - Sandusky
2. Race: Elzaam - Big Issue - Surrey Star
3. Race: Hot Prospect - Poet - Whispering Gallery
4. Race: Sard - Bahati - Sioux Rising
5. Race: Tuscania - Flood Plain - Zoowraa
6. Race: Carlton House - Estourah - Muqtarrib
7. Race: Lost In The Moment - Oriental Cat - Julienas
8. Race: Pocketwood - Mykingdomforahorse - Boucheron

Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster

today is the last big raceday of the English flat season and the Group One Racing Post Trophy over a mile for 2yo´ s at 15.55 CET is the final British group race of the year. This event is always won by a top class performer and 3 winners this century have gone on to take the following year´s Derby at Epsom. Looking further back we find such outstanding winners as subsequent Arc winner Vaguely Noble and the filly Noblesse who won the Oaks by 10 lengths in 1963. Noblesse was trained by Paddy Prendergast and his son Kevin now sends over Dunboyne Express (Declan McDonogh), who spearheads a very strong Irish challenge. Dunboyne Express was an imprssive winner of his two runners in the summer, and then suffered a setback, but is reportely back in top form. His shrewd trainer sends very few runners to Britain and this one must certainly be taken very seriously. However Casamento (Mike Halford/ Frankie Dettori) could be the Irish number one today. He has done nothing wrong so far a nd will be a rare British runner in the colours of Sheikh Mohammed. The other Irish runners are both trained by Aidan O´ Brien - Master of Hounds, the mount of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh, and Seville (Colm O´Donoghue). Seville is German-bred, although there is nothing German in his pedigree. We do not fancy the O´Brien runners so much, but it will not be surprising to see most of the prize-money crossing the Irish Sea.
The British defence is headed by the unbeaten Titus Mills (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon) and Native Khan (Ed Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan), who left out the Dewhurst last week to wait for this. Both should go well, but we also like the chances of Clive Brittain´s Zaidan (Seb Sanders). He was not right when last of 4 last time, but his previous effort when winning at Royal Ascot was pretty smart. Clive is fanous for winning big races at fancy prices, and at 25-1 Zaidan looks an interesting each-way bet.
The main supporting feature at Doncaster is the listed race for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.25. Galtymore Lad (Mick Channon/ Fallon) looks the logical choice here - he was twice runner-up to the Group One winner Wootton Bassett, but we also expect big run from Godolphin´s Signs in the Sand (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori), who is out of the German mare Gonfilia.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Harry Patch - Cheveton - Waffle
2. Race: Galtymore Lad - Cape To Rio - Signs In The Sand
3. Race: Casamento - Dunboyne Express - Seville
4. Race: Music Maestro - White Dart - Junket
5. Race: Ashram - Flambeau - City Style
6. Race: Alazan - Seven Summits - Red Jade
7. Race: Unex El Greco - Jaaryah - Honeymead

Friday, October 15, 2010

Newmarket Saturday - Champions Day

this column is now taking a week off, but first we will have a quick look at the excellent Newmarket card this Saturday- Champions Day. Two really strong Group One events, both with fancied runners from the Henry Cecil stable- and both owned by Khalid Abdullah and ridden by Tom Queally. The Dewhurst Stakes for 2yo´s at 15.35 CET is being talked about as the best 2yo race of the century, even with only 6 runners.

But they include 3 unbeaten colts, all potential champions: Cecil´s Frankel, Dream Ahead (David Simcock/ William Buick) and Saamidd (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori). Frankel looked a montster when winning at Ascot last time, and is odds-on favourite, but the fact is that he has not yet faced topclass opposition, and on ratings Dream Ahead, who won the Middle Park here over 6 furlongs by 9 lengths, can be slightly preferred. Saamidd comes from a top stable, who knows how to win these races, and cannot be underestimated.

The Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.00 is even more tricky. Cecil´s Twice Over won this last year and clearly has a chance of landing the double, but the French raiders have a good record in this event and we like Vision d´Etat (Eric Libaud/ Olivier Peslier). The other French runner Fuisse is not certain in our view to stay the trip.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Desert Law - Jinky - Question Times
2. Race: El Muqbil - Splendid Light - Suhaili
3. Race: Dordogne - Loving Spirit - Pivotman
4. Race: Tazeez - Penitent - Vesuve
5. Race: Timepiece - Middle Club - Modeyra
6. Race: Dever Dream - Golden Destiny - Electric Feel
7. Race: Mass Rally - Kajima - Imperial Guest
8. Race: Willing Foe - Times Up - Ottoman Empire

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

N.H. racing at Uttoxeter, Wetherby and Punchestown

Three jumps meetings today, with pride of place going to the top Irish track at Punchestown, opening its gates for the 2010-11 season. Two stars on show here are Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Barry Geraghty), who runs in the listed mares chase at 16.40 CET and Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who goes for the beginners chase at 18.50. Neither has run since finishing unplaced the same Grade One event at the festival here in April, but they should both score today. Voler la Vedette has won 7 of her 11 starts, including this event last year, and has only recent winner Elyaadi (John Queally/ Niall Madden) to beat. while Muirhead, although he has not won for almost 3 years, has been running well in the top hurdles races and looks a top recruit to chasing ranks.

In England, ex-Irish Nicene Creed should win the novice hurdle at 15.40 at Uttoxeter, but the other novice hurdle, over a longer distance at 16.45, looks much more open.

All-weather racing today

Autumn is in the air today as there is no flat racing on turf, just 3 N.H. meetings and two flat meetings on the all-weather, at Lingfield this afternoon and Kempton this evening. At Lingfield the most interesting event is the 3yo handicap over 10 furlongs at 18.45 CET. D´Urberville (John Jenkins/ Pat Dobbs) brings the best form into the race and is an experienced all-weather performer, but must beware of the lightly -raced Pedantic (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Piano (John Gosden/ William Buick), while top-weight Trailblazing (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is also not out of it. At Lingfield we also like course specialist Prince of Thebes (Mike Attwater/ Luke Morris) in the mile handicap at 16.00; he has top weight here but has been running in better company.

Many of these in action here then move on to Kempton´s evening meeting, where Cumani and Fallon can possibly double up with Loden in the 11 furlongs handicap at 21.10; this one was very unlucky here last time when his saddle slipped. Otherwise Godolphin can continue their winning run. They can dominate the first division of the 2yo maiden at 19.40 with Badeel (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and Mariners Lodge (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Atjebi), and Dettori/ bin Suroor also have chances in the second division half an hour later with the debutant Laatafreet.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

German runners in France today

After German-trained runners won 3 races yesterday at Saint-Cloud, hopes are high that they can carry on the good work on a much stronger card at Longchamp. There are 2 German runners in each of the main features, a listed race for 2yo´s at 15.10 CET and a listed race over a mile at 15.45, and it is by no means impossible that all 4 of them finish in the money. In the former race Stark Danon (Waldemar Hickst/ Dominique Boeuf), who won in good style at Baden-Baden, and Prince de la Nuit (Axel Kleinkorres/ Stephane Pasquier) take on 6 locals, including German-bred Luna Negra (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Ioritz Mendizibal, a Big Shuffle filly who has won her last 3 races. In the mile race König Bernard (Werner Baltromei/ Boeuf) and Forthemillionkiss (Uwe Ostmann/ Gaetan Masure) are the German runners, and with ground drying out, we particularly like the first-named.

There are also German runners in several other races, including 3 in the conditions race for 3yo´s for apprentices at 16.15, where Samardal (Andras Wöhler/ Thomas Messina) could go well, and two in the conditions race over 2000 metres at 16.45, in which Wöhler´s Toughness Danon (Eddie Pedroza) meets Ordenstreuer (Hans- Walter Hiller/ Pasquier) among others.

Leicester and Huntingdon (N.H.)

After the abandonment of today´s Newcastle fixture (track partly waterlogged after heavy weekend rain), there are only two meetings today in the U.K. Main event at Leicester is the conditions race for fillies over a mile at 17.40 CET. After Godolphin won a similar race yesterday, they can follow up here with Long Lashes (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who has not really run up to expectations in group races but faces a much simpler task now. German-bred Personified won a Wolverhampton maiden last time, but the daughter of Proudeyes takes a huge leap in class here, and Decorative (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) and Super Sleuth (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon) look more dangerous. Frankie also rides the debutante Estourah for the same stable in the 2yo fillies maiden half an hour later, bur reports suggest that Sir Michael Stoute´s Sea Moon (Ryan Moore) represents a live threat. The two divisions of the other 2yo maiden, at 16.10 and 16.40, with several well-bred but light ly-raced or unraced runners from the big stables, should also be very informative, but are hardly good betting races. On the other hand, Barney Curley´s ex-German Agapanthus (Tom Queally) looks an interesting bet in the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.40.

They go over jumps at Huntingdon, and Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has made his usual strong start to the season, once again looks the trainer to follow. He can take the main feature, a novice chase at 16.50 with Swincomb Rock (Paddy Brennan), who was an easy winner on his first start for the stable (previously with the Alners) at Perth recently, and also has some other good chances, notably with Thai Vango (Brennan) in the 3 1/4 mile hurdle race at 16.20 and Corredor Sun (with son Sam) in the novices handicap chase at 15.50.

Monday, October 11, 2010

4 flat meetings today

The flat season is winding down but there are 4 meetings today, including Salisbury and the Curragh - both staging their last fixture of 2010, as well as Windsor and nearby Kempton on the all-weather. There are some huge fields at the Curragh - 162 runners in 8 races, including 30 each in the two divisions of the 7 furlongs handicap and another 24 in the 2yo handicap, all over 7 furlongs.

Punters should swerve these races and look instead at the fillies maiden over 9 furlongs at 16.20 CET, which on all known form should go to Dermot Weld´s Phrase (Pat Smullen); the only danger is likely to be the Aga Khan´s well-bred debutante Riynaaz (John Oxx/ Fran Berry). The Curragh´s season ends with another large field maiden at 17.5, this time over 1 1/2 miles. Aidan O´Brien has 3 runners here, the pick of them probably being Battleoftrafalgar, partnered by his son Joseph. However this son of Galileo looks rather one-paced and has been placed on his last 8 starts, often starting favourite. We prefer another Galileo - Charles O´Brien´s Dearest Girl, with Johnny Murtagh up. As the owners are Jacqueline O´Brien and Sue Magnier, the trainer´s mother and sister, Murtagh is not exactly deserting his stable here and it will probably all stay in the family.

The best bet at the 3 British meetings should be Godolphin´s Secrecy (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) in the 7 furlongs conditions race at 17.20 at Salisbury. He has several pounds in hand on official ratings and should be too good for the handicappers Carnaby Street (Richard Hannon/ Dane O´Neill) and Balducci (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune).

The most interesting runner at Windsor is Colour Scheme (Brian Meehan/ Shane Kelly), who started at 40/1 when runner-up in a strong Newbury maiden in April. He has not been seen since, but the form of that race has worked out very well and he can beat modest opposition in the mile maiden at 18.10.

There is a similer situation with Googlette (Ed Vaughan/ Jamie Spencer), last seen when runner-up at Newmarket in May and now contesting the 6 furlongs race for 2yo maiden fillies at 16.35 at Kempton; however the extremely well-bred Dubai Queen (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) looks a big danger on her debut. It is possibly of interest that Richard Hughes rides here, rather than at the other two meetings with several Hannon runners, and he has chances of a double for Jeremy Noseda on Sea Change at 17.00 and Illustrious Prince half an hour later, though both are quite tricky handicaps.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

The Curragh, Goodwood and Bath

Both the top Irish flat track at the Curragh and Goodwood are staging their final meeting of 2010 today, with the Irish course featuring 3 listed races. The 6 furlongs event at 15.45 CET could go to U.K. raider Definightly (Roger Charlton/ Kevin Manning), who missed a good opportunity in England to go for this.The consistent Luisant is one danger; he has been placed 10 times in his last 11 starts, but has only ever won at Dundalk. If the ground is soft, then top-weight Snaefell and Jumbajukiba must also be considered. The race for 2yo fillies over a mile at^16.15 looks tricky. Hurricane Havoc (Jim Bolger/ Manning) and Rising Wind (Kevin Prendergast/ Chris Hayes) are both winners of their only start, but these were maidens on the provincial tracks and more is probably needed here. Aris (Paddy Prendergast/ Fran Berry) was 50/1 when third in good company last time, finishing well ahead of Aidan O´Brien´s two runners, so he is a hesitant choice now. The 1 1/2 mile race at 17.15 is another difficult race to solve. Top-weight She´s Our Mark (Pat Flynn/ Manning) was just touched off in a Group Three last time and is the selection, even though she is arguably better at shorter distances. Roses for the Lady (John Oxx/ Fran Berry) is a big danger, and if she can reproduce the form shown when runner-up in the Irish Oaks over this CD last year, must go close. The dark horse here is Aidan O´Brien´s Rain Forest (Johnny Murtagh), not seen out since winning two minor events in the spring. he is a 3/4 brother to Fame and Glory and could be anything.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Petronius Maximus - Vastitas - Shelley Beach
2. Race: Luisant - Definightly - Snaefell
3. Race: Aris - Hurricane Havoc - Gemstone
4. Race: Kokoro - Champion Boy - Hawk Dance
5. Race: Roses For The Lady - Harriers Call - Lady Lupus
6. Race: Big Occasion - Rock Medley - Kaladena
7. Race: Rossvoss - Dubawi Star - Giants Serapis




Richard Hughes continues his challenge for the jockeys´ championship at Goodwood and even rides in the opening race, a 2 mile handicap for N.H. jockeys. This is a bit cheeky, as Hughes is basically a flat jockey, but has also ridden over sticks (mainly for his father Dessie, himself a top jumps jockey). His mount Zelos Dictator will almost certainly start favourite, but like his main market rival Mohanad (Sheena West/ Jamie Goldstein) is repeatedly placed but rarely wins. Hughes has more conventional winning chances on Fleeting Echo , top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.35, and Compton Blue at 17.55, both trained by Richard Hannon, and on Brian Meehan´s Pearl Arch in the nursery at 16.10.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zelos Diktator - Mohanad - Where`S Susie
2. Race: Fleeting Echo - Summerinthecity - Avertor
3. Race: Inside - Double Dealer - Colebrooke
4. Race: New Latin - Celtic Sixpence - Poppy
5. Race: Weapon Of Choice - Flodden - Iron Step
6. Race: Compton Blue - Bullet Man - Beaumont`S Party
7. Race: Shianda - Iron Condor - Dynamic Drive




The most significant feature of Bath`s fixture is that Sir Michael Stoute sends his stable jockey Ryan Moore to ride two of Dansili´s offspring for Khalid Abdullah: the well-bred debutante Hairstyle (out of Group One winner Quiff) in the maiden race for 2yo maiden fillies at 16.00, and the lightly-raced maiden Warm Memories in the 3yo handicap at 16.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Millyluvstobouggie - West Leake Bridge - Best Be Careful
2. Race: Hairstyle - Lady Bridget - Inimitable Romanee
3. Race: Aerodynamic - Warm Memories - Purple Gallery
4. Race: Grand Zafeen - Yurituni - Superior Edge
5. Race: Bilash - Nadinska - Brewers Boy
6. Race: Jasmeno - Potentiale - Pelham Crescent

N.H. racing in Wales and Ireland

The best N.H. event today is the Munster National, a valuable handicap chase over 3 miles at Limerick. Likely favourite in a huge field is Michael Hourigan´ s Dancing Tornado, who is due to be ridden by Tony McCoy. However at the time of writing it is not clear that McCoy will be able to ride following two nasty falls yesterday. The listed novice hurdle race at 15.30 can go to Drumfire (Eamonn Griffin/ Barry Geraghty), who is still a maiden after two starts over sticks, but was listed class on the flat for Mrk Johnston. The Grade Three chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 16.00 is a good race, even with only 5 runners. Let Yourself Go (Adrian Maguire/ Paul Carberry) won this last year and has good prospects again, but we are not sure that he can concede 3 lbs to English raider Cornas (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), while Nicanor - if he jumps properly- is also not out of it.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Drumfire - Steeltown - Big Game Hunter
2. Race: Cornas - Let Yourself Go - Nicanor
3. Race: Giant Sequoia - Ikansea - Rockazar
4. Race: Sweet My Lord - Son Amix - Gimli`S Rock
5. Race: Dancing Tornado - Wins Now - Oscar Looby
6. Race: Barna Gold - Super Daisy - For A Finish
7. Race: Uncle Junior - Warne - Flag Of Honour




At Ffos Las, trainer Philip Hobbs and jockey Richard Johnson can continue their winning run with Cappagh in the novice chase at 15.45 and bottom weight Exulto in the handicap hurdle at 17.30. Both look capable of further improvement and the stable is in great form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Clarach - Ixora - Dipity Doo Dah
2. Race: Cappagh - Michigan Assassin - Chevy To The Levy
3. Race: Mediolanum - Silver Token - Bens Moor
4. Race: Harry Tricker - National Trust - Blacktoft
5. Race: Exulto - Points Of View - Rio Gael
6. Race: Calypso Bay - Brave Bugsy - Scotsbrook Cloud
7. Race: Pontyates - Youralltalk - Sothisisit

Saturday, October 09, 2010

4 N.H. meetings

The jumps season is slowly getting into gear, and there are 3 British meetings today and one in Ireland. The best racing comes from Chepstow in Wales, and champion trainer Paul Nicholls fields a strong team here, all partnered by Ruby Walsh. Their best chances are probably ex-French Domtaline in the 3yo hurdle at 15.20 CET and Watamu Bay in the novice chase at 16.25. Escort´men in the limited handicap hurdle at 17.00 also has prospects, but has a big weight, and in our opinion Gullible Gordon in the 3 mile handicap chase at 18.10 is also not well handicapped.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Domtaline - Fine Lace - Groove Master
2. Race: Karasenir - William Hogarth - Park Lane
3. Race: Watamu Bay - The Shoe - Balthazar King
4. Race: Escort`men - Barwell Bridge - Olofi
5. Race: Majaales - Winsley Hill - Pavillon Bleu
6. Race: Gullible Gordon - Postmaster - Templer
7. Race: Merehead - Kartanian - Don Pooleoni




Tony McCoy should be the jockey to follow at Bangor, and can win the novice hurdle at 15.25 with Donald McCain´s Drill Sergeant and also the novice hurdle over a shorter trip at 17.05 with newcomer Barrie Burn, while we also hope that German-bred Backbord (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) runs well in the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Drill Sergeant - Kilcrea Kim - Three Chords
2. Race: Fiendish Flame - Rebel Dancer - Three Ships
3. Race: Red Birr - Woodlark Island - Morning Sunshine
4. Race: Silviniaco Conti - My Brother Sylvest - Barrie Burn
5. Race: Ballydub - Midnight Gold - Doctor Pat
6. Race: Otage De Brion - Tara Royal - Pouvoir
7. Race: Fiddlededee - Native Breeze - Pampelonne




The card at Hexham is not so strong, but the maiden hurdle at 17.20 shoudl lie between ex-Irish Bavard Court (Tim Vaughan/ Tom David) and Monogram (Howard Johnson/Timmy Murphy). The latter seems to be a difficult character and ran out last time at Perth, but could still win this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Indian Groom - Twentynineblack - Kellystown Lad
2. Race: Sophonie - Diamond Mm - Sara`S Smile
3. Race: Quinder Spring - Emotive - Just For Men
4. Race: Manoubi - Sparkling Zola - Bled
5. Race: Monogram - Oil Burner - Blenheim Brook
6. Race: Reckless Venture - Adrianeo - Sierra Victor
7. Race: Lady Counsellor - River Dragon - Dunowen Point




There are the usual large fields at Fairyhouse in Ireland, but only 8 in the handicap chase at 17.25. Bottom-weight Schindlers Society (James Lambe/ Emett O´Connell) is consistent and looks a solid each-way bet here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Galianna - Haste Ye Bach - Tovaria
2. Race: Not For Converting - Gala Dancer - First Morning
3. Race: Cybersnow - Clancy Strand - Time Machine
4. Race: Wellforth - West Ship Master - Onzo Mor
5. Race: Francis Du Mesnil - Schindlers Society - Imperial Storm
6. Race: Liberty Counsel - Dolly Hall - Amie Magnificent
7. Race: Des Res - Datokepe - Cebuano

York this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening

York plays second fiddle to Ascot this afternoon, but still has some very competitive racing, notably the two valuable handicaps, over a mile at 15.15 CET and over 6 furlongs at 16.55, both with 20 runners. The latter event looks as if it has been targeted by Richard Fahey, who has the won this race for the past two seasons and now saddles 5 runners. All of them should go well, but we select Irish Heartbeat, the choice of stable jockey Paul Hanagan, and CD specialist Knot in Wood (Barry McHugh), who ran his best race for some time when 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup, racing on the wrong side. Fahey also has a chance in the mile race with Extraterrestrial (Hanagan) - despite poor form figures - but here we prefer Andrew Balding´s improving Brick Red (David Probert).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maraheb - Spey Song - Vantaa
2. Race: Brick Red - Gunner Lindley - Extraterrestrial
3. Race: Descaro - Dubara Reef - Tillietudlem
4. Race: Barefoot Lady - Easy Ticket - Murbeh
5. Race: Poet`S Place - Colonel Mak - Tajneed
6. Race: Shallow Bay - The Caped Crusader - Path Of Peace
7. Race: Tepmokea - Kathleen Frances - Alsahil



Wolverhampton´s card this evening is very low profile. The 2yo maiden over 8 1/2 furlongs at 19.40 looks the most interesting event and could go to Godolphin´s Jaridh, just touched off by a nose this CD on his only start. He will be partnered by Richard Hughes, who has mounts in the last 6 races and has not yet given up his hopes of winning the jockeys´ championship for the first time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: One Cool Bex - Rylee Mooch - Country Waltz
2. Race: White Shift - Kinigi - Bateleur
3. Race: Jaridh - Oversteer - Irons On Fire
4. Race: Riot Police - Claret`N`Blue - Scented
5. Race: Resplendent Ace - Red Kestrel - Taste The Wine
6. Race: Male Model - Tinkertown - Dazzling Valentine
7. Race: Bushwhacker - Praesepe - Sparking
8. Race: Honoured - Frameit - Ella Grace

3 group races at Ascot

A strong Saturday card at Ascot today, with 3 Group Three races and a hot handicap.The Cornwallis Stakes for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.30 CET looks quite open with 14 runners, but Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill), runner-up to the speedy Zebedee at Doncaster, looks the one to beat. The Bengough Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.05 looks even more dfficult with 18 runners.

Redford (David Nicholls/ Richard Hughes) is the most interesting runner, having come back to form with a bang; after winning the Ayr Gold Cup over this trip, he was very impressive over 7 furlongs here a fortnight ago, in two of the toughest handicaps of the year. However he has little in hand of Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) on Ayr form, while Bewitched (Charles O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) won a similar race at the Curragh last time and must be taken seriously, as should be last years winner Royal Rock (Chris Wall/ George Baker).

The final group race is the Autumn Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile. Toulain (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) has not run since the summer, which could be a problem, and we prefer Masked Marvel (John Gosden/ William Buick), who was heavily backed in his debut and ran out a comfortable winner of a Sandown maiden over this distance. Obviously this is a much better race, but he is rated highly (Derby entry) and can move up successfully in grade.

The 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.40 looks really difficult. Prompter (Michael Bell/ Martin Lane) and The Fonz (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) were a close second and third in a similar race over this CD at the last meeting and must come on to the short list. But we also like Sirvino (David Barron/ Tom Eaves), up in trip but noted running on strongly last time at Pontefract, and especially Siberian Tiger (Michael Wigham/ Robert Winston), who was 6th in this race last year when trained by Tony Martin, and whose trainer landed a huge coup in the Cambridgshire last week.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Issue - Tazahum - Dubawi Gold
2. Race: Dinkum Diamond - Electric Waves - Pabusar
3. Race: Redford - Genki - Taajub

4. Race: Vulcanite - Prompter - The Fonz
5. Race: Masked Marvel - Toolain - Pausanias
6. Race: Rock N Roll Ransom - Spanish Duke - Seven Summits
7. Race: Humidor - Magical Speedfit - Ancient Cross

Friday, October 08, 2010

All-weather racing this evening

There are two all-weather meetings this evening, at Wolverhampton and Dundalk in Ireland. The Irish meeting is much classier and includes a listed race for 2yo´s at 20.30 CET. Coolmore clearly want to win this race, as they have entered 4 juveniles, two trained by Aidan O´Brien and two by David Wachman. As stable jockey Johnny Murtagh has chosen to partner Wachman´s Warning Flag, an easy CD winner last time, he can be assumed to be their main hope. He is moving up in grade here, but so are most of the others. One possible opponent is Mark Johnston´s Satin Love (Greg Fairley), but they may have better prospects with Distinguish in the preceding maiden race.

At Wolverhampton the best race is the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 20.50 with 12 runners. Lightly-raced Nezhenka (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) has a big weight for a 3yo filly and is having her first run on this surface, but if she adapts, can win this. The lightweights Palio Square (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Never Can Tell (Jamie Osborne/ Sophie Doyle), both winners here last time out, are the dangers. Best bet of the day is Godolphin´s Flag Officer (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) in the opening 2yo maiden at 18.50.

York, Musselburgh and Carlisle

Today´s British racing is all up north, with flat racing at York at Musselburgh in Scotland, and N.H. racing from Carlisle, which is also not far from the Scottish border. Easily the best racing is at York, and the conditions race over 10 furlongs at 15.45 CET has attracted sme smart performers, notably Kirklees (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a Group Two CD winner last year. He was then off the track for a long while, before making a satisfactory comeback when a close fourth to a stable companion in a listed race at Ayr. He finished behind King´s Gambit (Tom Tate/ Jamie Spencer) then, but can be expected to reverse the placings this time. The 7 furlongs handicap at 16.20 looks very tough with 20 runners and the same number line up in the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.30. Obviously there are many possibilities, but our 3 against the field are Prime Exhibit (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), My Kingdom (Hughie Morrison/ John Fahy) and Desert Creek (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) in the former event, and top-weight Strike up the Band (David Nicholls/ Billy Cray), Oldjoesaid (Kevin Ryan/ Spencer) and Haajes (PT Midgely/ Paul Pickard) in the latter.

Nicholls also saddles the top weight in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.30 at Musselburgh, this time with son Adrian on board. This is a much weaker race and one possible danger is the mare Look Busy (Alan Berry/ Slade O´Hara), who is not the most consistent but certainly capable of winning in this grade.

The N.H. card at Carlisle is not very exciting, but the novice chase at 15.30 looks interesting. With the Twiston-Davies stable in top form (3 more winners yesterday), C´monthehammers (Paddy Brennan) can be expected to run well, but on hurdles form Alvarado (Howard Johnson/ Timmy Murphy) can be preferred, especially as he won both his starts at this track.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

German runners in France today

The going will be very testing at today´s two meetings in the Paris area - over jumps at Fontainebleau and on the flat at Saint-Cloud. Main event at the latter track is the Group Three Prix Thomas Bryon for 2yo´s over a mile at 14.4 CET, in which there are only 5 runners. The Monsun colt Maxios (Jonathan Pease/ Christophe Lemaire) is the obvious favourite here, having won in excellent style on his debut.

The two Godolphin runners Grand Vent (by Shirocco) and Shooting Gallery are the dangers. The main supporting feature is the listed race over 2800 metres at 16.15, which looks much more competitive; however the German runner La Tournesol (Ralf Rohne/ Flavien Prat) must have a good each-way chance here. She stays well and being a 3/4 sister to La Boum should act well on heavy ground. There are several more German runners at Saint-Cloud, including 4 in the opening tiercé handicap over 3100 metres at 13.40. This is of course a very open race, but we hope to see Nelson (Sascha Smrczek) finish in the money.

At Fontainebleau we hope to see German-bred and -owned Arriba Arriba run well in the hurdle race for 3yo fillies at 13.55.

today´s U.K. and Irish racing

Plenty of runners at today´s 5 meetings, but very few of them with pretensions to class. At Newbury the 2yo handicap at 16.20 CET is the most interesting event, and the 3 top-weights should dominate -Vanguard Dream (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), Unex El Greco (John Gosden/ William Buick) - both unbeaten so far and both winners at Leicester last time- and Thomas Tompion (Gary and Ryan Moore). The Gosden runner made an excellent impression when winning on his debut and is narrowly preferred. The only other flat racing is on the all-weather this evening at Wolverhampton. The best race here is the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 20.40, which has attrcte runners from severl of th top saböles - Stoute, Cecil, Jphnston, Jrvis etc, for very poor prize-money. It is a very open affair with Cecil´s consistent Heart of Hearts (Ian Mongan) our narrow selection.

Philip Hobbs looks the trainer to follow over jumps on the U.K. today. He can land a double at Exeter with Dunraven Storm in the opening novice hurdle at 15.25, an easy bnmper winner here when last seen in April, and Triggerman in the beginners chase at 17.10, both with stable jockey Richard Johnson in the saddle and could also be on the mark at Worcester, where Qroktou (Tom O´Brien) is a confident choice to win the 3 mile novice hurdle at 15.00.

Colin Bowe is another trainer in good form, and we expect him also to land a double at the Irish N.H. meeting at Tramore, with Model County Lass in the maiden hurdle at 16.20 and Let´s Go Sunshine in the beginners chase at 17.25. Amateur jockey Mr. B.O´Neill rides them both.

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Nottingham, Kempton and Navan

Three flat meetings today, Nottingham on very soft ground this afternoon, Kempton on the all-weather this evening and Navan in Ireland. The most interesting events at Nottingham are the 2yo maidens, over 6 furlongs at 16.10 CET and over a mile half an hour later. In the former event, Enlightening (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Lowawatha (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) are the obvious form picks after both finishing runner-up last time, but we are also curious to see how Poppet´s Joy (Andy Haynes/ Robert Havlin) goes - she is a half-sister to Overdose. In the mile race, Audacious (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) looks the best bet of the day. He was 4th of 15 in a very strong maiden at Doncaster, and the winner of that race scored by 30 lengths yesterday. Moore can double up on Jeremy Noseda´ s Alfonso the Wise in the 10 furlongs maiden at 17.40.

The races for 2y´s also look to be the most interesting events at Kempton, and we expect Karate (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon), now brought back to 5 furlongs at 19.00, and Signs in the Sand (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), third in a much better race last time, at 19.30, both to prove successful. The mile nursery handicap at 21.00 looks wide open, but despite the presence of two Godolphin runners, Jaaryah (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) skould be the one to beat after winning very easily here on her debut.

There are some huge fields at Navan, including 20 runners in the maiden race over 2 miles for 4yo´s and up at 16.15. Normally we would expect a field of plodders in this kind of race, but in fact there are some useful performers entered, such as Hidden Universe (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), winner last time out of the Champion Bumper at Punchestown and smart hurdler Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/ BJ Cooper). German-bred Quartetto (Mervyn Torrens/ Paul Townend) is also no slouch but will probably have to settle for a minor place, but heavy ground would be an advantage. Otherwise we expect to see Aidan O´Brien take the two maiden races for 2yo´s - he has 3 runners in each- and the conditions race over 10 furlongs at 18.15 with German-bred Don Carlos (Johnny Murtagh), not seen out since flopping in two classic trials in the spring, but facing much lesser opposition now.

N.H. racing at Ludlow and Towcester

with the ground beginning to come right for jumping, there are some large fields - but not much quality - at Ludlow and Towcester this afternoon. A couple of decent hurdlers making their chasing debuts are the most interesting runners of the day - Michael Flips (Andrew Turnell/ Nick Scholfield) in the beginners chace over 2 miles at 16.00 CET at Towcester and Golan Way (Sheena West/ Jamie Goldstein) over half a mile further at 17.20 at Ludlow.

If their jumping holds up, both should win as on hurdling form they have plenty in hand. At Ludlow, the handicap chase over 3 miles at 16.20 looks quite open, but Estates Recovery (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), at 5 the youngest runner in the field of 15 and by far the least exposed, could well prove to be a cut above this opposition of his first run for 6 months.

At Towcester, we like Cinderella Rose (Kim Bailey/ Sean Quinlan) in the novice hurdle at 17.30; she was a good bumper performer and gets all the allowances here, while ex- German Sommersturm (Barney Curley/ Denis O´Regan) is a fascinating runner in the handicap hurdle at 16.30. This one time smart flat horse has shown very little so far for Barney, but that does not necessarily mean much and he has been given a very fair handicap rating.

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Southwell (a.w.), Leicester, Warwick and Tipperary (N.H.)

It is unusual for Frankie Dettori to ride at Southwell´ s all-weather track, but that is the case today and he can win the first two races on Abtasaamah at 15.20 CET and Sahara Kingdom half an hour later, both trained for Godolphin by Saeed bin Suroor. Neither is likely to be much of a betting proposition however and both will start at very short prices. A better betting race is the 6 furlongs conditions race at 17.50.

Captain Dunne (Tim Easterby/ Robert Winston) should win this; he is top-rated and his latest form to Tangerine Trees has been boosted since., However Masta Plasta (David and Adrian Nicholls), although theoretically held on form, might give him a tough time, as he is listed class at his best. Oldtimer Pawan (Anne Stokell) has finished well behind these two, but runs his best races over this CD and might possibly run into a place at a big price.

The ground is expected to be very heavy at Leicester and punters should be cautious. The hottest favourite here is Picture Editor (Hency Cecil/ Tom Queally), who has only 2 opponents in the 2yo conditions race over 10 furlongs at 16.10, while trainer John Dunlop could land a double with Harlestone Times (Ted Durcan) in the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 and Hajjaan (Richard Hills) in the 7 furlongs event for 3yo maidens at 17.10, but none of this trio has ever run on ground as heavy as it will be this afternoon.

The Catterick card is pretty poor.The most interesting event here could be the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 18.30. The rapidly improving Tobernea (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley) has won his last 3 races, including yesterday at Warwick, If he turns out again under a penalty, he should go close, but we prefer Danceintothelight (Micky Hammond/ Kelly Harrison), an easy winner here over 2 furlongs further last time, as well as Maneki Neko (Edwin Tuer/ Phillip Makin), who always goes well here.

There is jumps racing in Ireland at Tipperary with maximum fields in most races. The season is slowly getting into swing and there are some potentially promising sorts entered in the beginners chase at 17.55. This is not really a race to bet on, but our 3 against the field are Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/ MP Walsh), Warne (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) and Lucky William (Tom and BJ Cooper).

Friday, October 01, 2010

"Arc" weekend at Longchamp

this column is now off to Paris for the weekend, but first here are our thoughts on the big meeting at Longchamp, with several interesting German-traind runners. In our view the best chance of a German winner is in Saturday´s Prix Dollar at 16.50, in which the classy Zazou (Mario Hofer/ Olivier Peslier) and the much-improved Budai (Waldemar Hickst/ Dominique Boeuf) are engaged. With very soft ground expected, both German runners could finish in the money, but Zazou, racing over his best trip, is the selection. Also on Saturday we like High Heeled (John Gosden/ Peslier) in the Prix Royallieu at 16.15 and Baden-Baden winner Emerald Commander (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona) in th Prix Daniel Wildenstein at 17.25.
Sunday of couzrs is the big da and fatures no g´fewer thn 7 Gropip One racs for thoroighbbrds and one more for Arab-breds. The "Arc" itself will be run at 16.05 and a fild of almost 20 is expected. There are two German runners Wiener Walzer (Jens Hirschberger/ Tom Queally) and Liang Kai (Uwe Ostmann/ Stephane Pasquier), but the going will be too soft for the former while the latter - with all due respect- looks outclassed. This is a very open "Arc" and - dare one say it?- of much lower class than usual, with question marks over many of the leading candidates. Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Richard Hughes) has been runner-up 3 times running, and the horses that beat him, Dylan Thomas, Zarkava and Sea the Stars are certainly much superior to anything in this field. He could make the frame again, while we also expect Cavalryman (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) to run much better than he did at Baden-Baden. The Aga Khan´s pair, Planteur and English Derby winner Workforce look the be st of the 3yo´s. The best German chance on Sunday is in the Prix du Cadran at 13.05 over 4000 metres, with Brusco (Andreas Wöhler/ Peslier) and Shawnee Saga (Werner Baltromei/ Boeuf) engaged. Peter Schiergen´s two runners, Danedream in the Prix Marcel Boussac at 14.10 and Elle Shadow in the Prix de l´Opera at 17.35, will both b prtnerd ny ndrsch Starke, while Smooth Operator (Hofer/ Guyon) might be an interesting each-way bet on the soft going in the Prix de la Foret at 15.20.

Newmarket Friday and Saturday

Newmarket stages two of its best cards of the year today and tomorrow, with 2yo´s in the spotlight today. The Cheveley Park Stakes for 2yo fillies (Group One) at 15.30 CET and the Middle Park Stakes (Group Two) at 16.05 are the highlights and both look very competitive. Obviously it would be nice if the sponsors won their own race and we give Hooray (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) a good chance in the fillies´ race, but Khor Sheed (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Ragsah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) look threatening. The Middle Park is just as tricky, we give slight preference to Strong Suit (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), slightly unlucky when third at odds-on at the Curragh last time, and before that an impressive Royal Ascot winner. Dream Ahead (David Simcock/ William Buick), who won the Morny at Deauville, Temple Meads (Ed McMahon/ Richard Mullen) and Approve (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) are the dangers.

After racing, Fallon flies off to Ireland to ride Gitano Hernando for Marco Botti in a Group Three on the all-weather at Dundalk. Should he pass this test, the 4yo will be again aimed at the Breeders Cup; Beethoven (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) looks the only danger this evening.

Saturday at Newmarket starts off with two immensely valuable sales races for 2yo´s, both with huge fields. The fillies´ event at 14.55 can go to I Love Me (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) who won a similar race first time out and now faces 20 opponents, the best of whom could be Together (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh). There are 27 in the colts´ race at 15.25, where Formosina (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) is top-rated, while Fury (Haggas/ Fallon), most impressive on his debut, rates a big danger. The biggest field of all, and the big betting race, is the Cambridgeshire, a 9 furlongs handicap at 16.40 with 35 runners. Lightly-raced Nationalism (John Gosden/ Buick) has been all the rage for this and is likely to start at around 7-2; he could well win, but is no value at this price. Gosden´s other runners Taqleed (Richard Hills) and High Twelve (Franny Norton) should not be ignored, while for those looking for an alternative we suggest Steele Tango (Roger Teal/ John Fahy). Classi est race of the day is the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies over a mile at 16.00. Sahpresa (Rodolphe Collet/ Christophe Soumillon) won this last year and could well complete the double.