Thursday, September 30, 2010

Late news: Workforce runs in

It has been confirmed this morning that Sir Michael Stoute´ s Workforce, impressive record-breaking winner of the Epsom Derby but a flop in the King George on his only start since, will after all run in Sunday´s Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp. The 3yo owned by Khalid Abdullah worked well on Thursday morning and was given the green light to run in Paris afterwards. He is certain to be one of the favourites, despite his trainer´s relatively poor record in this race.

Start of Newmarket´s Cambridgeshire meeting

Today sees the start of the 3 day Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket, and although the best races are run on Friday and Saturday, today´s card is also highly interesting. Main feature is the Group Three Somerville Tattersall Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.45 CET. Clive Brittain´s Zaidan (Seb Sanders) is arguably the form choice here, having won at Royal Ascot, but the stable has gone off the boil since and we feel that soft ground will in any case be against him. We are however expecting a roýal result, as the Queen´s Royal Exchange (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) who has won his last 3 races in good style and seems to act on any going is the selection. The Paddyman (William Haggas/ Philip Robinson), 4th in a Group Two last time, looks the main threat. Haggas also has a chance with Harris Tweed (Liam Jones) in the listed race over 1 3/4 mlles for 3yo´s at 16.10 after easily winning a similar race last time at Chester. However here we prefer Ted Spread (Mark Tompkins / Kieren Fallon), who had no chance in the St. Leger, but who will be suited by the soft ground and against this easier opposition.

The listed event over 5 furlongs at 17.20 could go to Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) who showed much improved form to win at 33/1 at Beverley last time. Consistent oldtimer Tax Free (David and Adrian Nicholls) was the beaten favourite then and can never be left out of calculations, while Hamish McGonagall (Tim Easterby/ David Allen), twice behind the smart Astrophysical Jet, must also be considered in this grade.

Easterby also has chances of winning the main event at Warwick, a handicap over 1 mile 7 furlongs at 18.05, with Bollin Judith (Derek Nolan), who comes from a family that stay well and like soft going. At Ayr the main event is also a handicap over a long distance at 18.15 and looks to lie between Chilly Filly (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and Cosmic Sun (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), a CD winner last time out. Even if Hanagan wins here, his narrow lead in the jockeys´ championship could well shrink even further today as his main rival Richard Hughes, after a winner (or two?) at Newmarket, travels on to Kempton´s all-weather evening meeting, where he has rides in 7 races and several winning chances.

There is jumping at Ireland at Sligo. Ruby Walsh, back in top form after his long injury layoff, won the last race here yesterday and can repeat the feat on his father´s Mountmassey in the beginners chase at 19.15.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Autumn in the air

Today´s 5 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland have a very autumnal look, with 8 races at each meeting and some large fields, especially in the 2yo races. The two exceptions are the two supposedly better races at Salisbury at 16.05 CET (7 furlongs) and 17.15 (6 furlongs), both with tiny fields. Richard Hannon and Mick Channon supply almost all the runners, and the former can score with Big Issue (Richard Hughes) in the earlier event, and Channon with Galtymore Lad (Kieren Fallon) in the later one.

Channon also had Jinky entered here, but he nows runs in the 6 furlongs race for 2yo maidens at 15.20 instead, with Sam Hitchcott in the saddle, and the hint should be taken. Also at Nottingham the well-bred newcomer Devastation (by Montjeu out of Attaction) should be watched in the race for maiden fillies at 17.00, while Frankie Dettori rides Godolphin´s Quick Wit (Saeed bin Suroor) in the 3yo handicap at 16.25; this promising colt showed good form last October but has not been seen out since.

He is the only Godolphin runner at the East Midlands track, while Parlour Games (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi) is their only runner at Newcastle; he runs in the opening 2yo maiden at 15.10 and probably has only Jalors (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) to beat. There is also one Godolphin runner at Kempton´ s evening meeting, Cross Examination (bin Suroor/ Dettori?) in the race for 2yo maiden fillies at 19.50, where Henry Cecil´s debutant Loving Thought (Tom Queally) is expected to run well. Queally also has prospects of winning the 2yo handicap at 20.50 with top-weight Handsome Jack for Robert Mills.

In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting (5 flat races and 3 over fences) at Sligo. The most interesting flat race is the 10 furlongs maiden for 4yo´s and older horses at 16.35; smart bumper horse Tornado Shay makes his debut in a regular flat race here. Last time out he was third in the Grade One bumper at Punchestown in April, and although this trip is on the short side, he must have a great chance here. Dazzle Dancer (Willie Mullins/ Pat Smullen) is recommended on recent form. Over jumps Prince Erik (Dermot Weld/ Ruby Walsh) is the class act. This smart hurdler runs in the beginners chase at 19.15; so far his jumping has been shaky, but he has the right man on board today.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Newbury, Brighton and Sedgefield (N.H.)

Today´s Newbury card is quite decent for a Tuesday and 4 of the 8 races are reserved for 2yo´s, 3 of them maiden races. with very little form to go on, they are not really good betting opportunities but there are quite likely some good performers here, with well-bred juveniles from big stables entered in all of them. The two class 3 handicaps later in the card are however good betting races.

At 17.55 CET they go over 5 furlongs, and top-weight Sohraab (Hughie Morrison/ Jim Crowley), well drawn on the outside rail, is a must for the short list. Poppy Seed (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who has been running over 6 furlongs, may do better over ths trip, while we also like oldtimer Cape Royal (Milton Bradley), who runs his best races for today´s jockey Pat Cosgrave. The same goes for Jamie Toller´s Doric Lady, all of whose career wins have come with Kirsty Milczarek in the saddle. Kirsty also rides the much improved Grams and Ounces for Amy Weaver in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.30, and with bottom weight he must have a good each-way chance, after winning 3 of his last 4 races (all in lower grades). However this is a hot race, and the one to beat is probably Conduct (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who won his only start, a Sandown maiden, in good style. Obviously this is much tougher, but he looks to have plenty of improvement in him. German-bred Geneva Geyser (James Eustace/ Micky Fenton) and top-weight Clockmaker (John Gosden/ William Buick) also come into the reckoning.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Richard Hughes at Ffos Las

After the top races at the weekend today´s cards are a definite anti-climax. The "best" race is possibly the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 17.20 at Ffos Las. Jimmy Quinn rides John Mackie´s much-improved Fantino here, who has won 3 of his last 4 starts, but our preference is for Aurorian (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who was 4th in a much better race at York last time. It could be a good afternoon for Hughes, who still has an outside chance of being champion jockey for the first time; he also has winning chances on Supercharged for Chris Wall at 15.20, Magic Jack, for Hannon again, at 15.50 and on Rock the Stars an hour later for John Hills.

Hannon has runners everywhere today and has booked Ryan Moore to ride a couple at Bath, but Moore´s presence here is mainly because of Sir Michael Stoute´s two runners, Kinyras at 16.30 and the very well-bred Mascarene half an hour later, both of whom should start favourite and have a winning chance on their latest form. Moore also partners one of our favourite horses The Tatling in the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.00. The 13yo has already run 146 times, winning 16 races and being placed a further 39 times, and can improve his record against this lowly opposition; he has top-weight, but is in fact on his lowest mark for many years.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Supercharged - Button Moon - Yellow Dandy
2. Race: Magic Jack - Meia Noite - Nadinska
3. Race: Bermondsey Bob - Earlsmedic - Emiratesdotcom
4. Race: Grams And Ounces - Rock The Stars - Mr Money Maker
5. Race: Aurorian - Fantino - Rugell
6. Race: Milnagavie - Cornish Beau - Corr Point

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Ascot -third day

The Ascot meeting continues with another good card, although not quite up to yesterday´s standards and also minus Frankie Dettori, who - as we predicted- was the star turn yesterday with 4 wins including both Group Ones.Today´s main event is the Group Two Diadem Stakes over 6 furlongs at 17.45 CET, which looks a very open affair with 13 runners. Sirt Michael Stoute is not known for training sprinters, and has in any case been rather quiet of late, but saddles two fancied runners here, Kingsgate Native (Ryan Moore) and Sayif (Richard Hills), both of whom should run well. The 3yo filly Lady of Desert (Brian Meehan/ Richard Hughes) is arguably the form choice after her excellent second at Haydock last time, while consistent Himalya (Jeremy Noseda/ Tom Queally) is another for the short list, but our preference is for Dalghar (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) who is coming back in distance and represents a team that always does well on their raids on big English prizes.
There are only 6 runners in the Group Three Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 17.10, which looks at the mercy of Laaheb (Michael Jarvis/ Richard Hills) who defeated the smart Holberg last time. Mikhail Glinka (Gary Moore/ Richard Hughes) won the Queen´s Vase here for Aidan O´Brien but now runs for the first time in the colours of Chechyen dictator Kadyrov. The most popular winner of the day would probably be the Queen´s Free State (Richard Hannon/ Hughes) who contests the listed race over 2 miles at 16.35, but we do not think he can give the weight to Tastahil (Barry and Richard Hills).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Custom House - Buckland - Ibsaar
2. Race: The Fonz - Life And Soul - Prompter
3. Race: Tastahil - Free Agent - Pompeyano
4. Race: Laaheb - Mikhail Glinka - Whispering Gallery
5. Race: Dalghar - Lady Of The Desert - Kingsgate Native
6. Race: Oratory - Shavansky - King Of Windsor

Group races at the Curragh

There is also a good card at the Curragh, where the Group Two Beresford Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile at 17.25 CET is the main feature. If form means anything, this should go to Casamento (Mike Halford/ Pat Smullen), beaten only a head in the National Stakes (Group One) here last time. The two Aidan O´Brien runners Factum (Johnny Murtagh) and Robin Hood (Seamus Heffernan) can follow him home. O´Brien will be hoping for a winner after being narrowly beaten in both yesterday´s Group Ones at Ascot, and Wild Wind, the choice of stable jockey Murtagh from 3 runners in the Group Three Park Stakes for 2yo fillies at 16.15, may be able to score for the Ireland´s most powerful stable. The big betting race here is the Irish Cesarewitch over 2 miles at 18.00 with 23 runners. O´Brien has the likely favourite here in Clearwater Bay (Murtagh), but he has a big weight for a 3yo and we prefer the progressive Endless Intrigue (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). There is also Irish N.H. racing today at Clonmel, and in the U.K. they go over jumps again at Market Rasen and on the flat at Musselburgh.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Petronius Maximus - Imperator Augustus - Bad Romance
2. Race: Good To Follow - Solent Ridge - Zaralanta
3. Race: Katla - Wild Wind - Chrysanthemum
4. Race: Luisant - Kitty Kiernan - Hujaylea
5. Race: Casamento - Factum - Mawaakef
6. Race: Clearwater Bay - Endless Intrigue - Sindiyma
7. Race: Ancient Kingdom - Table Mountain - Barrow Island

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Rest of Ascot

The rest of the Ascot card is also very hot, with the ante-post favourites for the 2011 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas among other stars in action. Frankel (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) will start at a very short price for the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo´s at 15.30 CET after winning his first 2 races very impressively. He is named after the unforgotten U.S. trainer Bobby, who was so successful for owner Khalid Abdullah and could be a fitting memorial. He has scared off much of the opposition, but Aidan O´ Brien saddles two of the 4 remaining runners, and Treasure Beach (Murtagh) may follow him home.

There are only 6 runners in the Group One Fillies Mile at 16.05, where the unbeaten White Moonstone /Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) is the obvious favourite. The O´Brien/ Murtagh candidate Together could run well, but the main danger is undoubtedly Theysken´s Theory (Brian Meehan/ Ryan Moore), an easy Goodwood winner last time. However White Moonstone looked very smart when winning at Doncaster and is the selection.

There are two listed races for fillies which have predictably attractd large fields, but Dettori has good chances with Long Lashes over a mile at 14.55 -Michael Jarvis´ Sajjhaa is the danger here - and Rainfall for Mark Johnston at 17.50 over 7 furlongs. The latter is clear top-rated, but Mosquera (Marco Botti/ Murtagh), runner-up all 3 starts so far in 2010, could run her close.

The big betting race is the Challenge Cup handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.40 with 29 runners. Frankie rides the likely favourite Redford for David Nicholls, last week´s Ayr Gold Cup winner, but this is a wide-open race with dozens of chances. Frankie does not ride in the Royal Lodge, so cannot go through the card - but he could still have a profitable afternoon and a hat-trick is by no means out of the question.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sajjhaa - Long Lashes - I`M A Dreamer
2. Race: Frankel - Treasure Beach - Happy Today
3. Race: White Moonstone - Theyskens` Theory - Together
4. Race: Redford - Axiom - Kakatosi
5. Race: Makfi - Rip Van Winkle - Poet`S Voice
6. Race: Rainfall - Mosqueras Romance - First City
7. Race: Keenes Day - Aaim To Prosper - Woolfall Treasure

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot

Ascot today stages its best day´s racing of the year - even better than the fixtures at the Royal meeting. This used to be known as the Festival of British Racing and has gone down in the history books because of Frankie Dettori´s incredible feat in 1996, when he won all 7 races on the card - an achievement which is never likely to be equalled at such a high profile meeting.

He certainly won´t win 7 races this afternoon, but has in our view a solid each-way chance in the main event, the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile at 1.15 CET. His mount, Godolphin´s Poet´ s Voice was supplemented into this race after winning the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last time, but this race is much tougher and features two of the best milers in the world - French-trained Makfi (Mikel Delzangles/ Christophe Soumillon) and last years winner Rip van Winkle (Johnny Murtagh), one of 3 Aidan O´Brien entries. Makfi was suffering from an infection when beaten at the Royal meeting here but otherwise has done nothing wrong. He was an easy winner of the 2,000 Guineas and even more impressive when beating Goldikova and Paco Boy at Deauville.

Unfortunately the Newmarket runner-up Canford Cliffs now misses the race, but it is still a high class event. Rip van Winkle had no chance in the Irish Champion, but previously won the Juddmonte International and is arguably better at this distance - although last year´s renewal is not worth much as he faced only 3 inferior rivals. He will be tough to beat, but Makfi possibly has more class while Poet´s Voice seems to be underestimated and could well spring a surprise. Beethoven (O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) is best of the others.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sajjhaa - Long Lashes - I`M A Dreamer
2. Race: Frankel - Treasure Beach - Happy Today
3. Race: White Moonstone - Theyskens` Theory - Together
4. Race: Redford - Axiom - Kakatosi
5. Race: Makfi - Rip Van Winkle - Poet`S Voice
6. Race: Rainfall - Mosqueras Romance - First City
7. Race: Keenes Day - Aaim To Prosper - Woolfall Treasure

Friday, September 24, 2010

Start of 3 day Ascot meeting

Ascort´s big Septmeber meting srarts today, although the top events are all run tomorrow. Ascot has now announced grandiose plans to hold a huge "Champions Day" meeting next October, to include the Champion Stakes, to be transferred from Newmarket. Not suprisingly this has aroused plenty of opposition, not only from traditionalists who see no reason why the Champion Stakes should be moved from its established venue, but especially from the French racing authorities, who justifiably feel that the proposed date - two weeks after the Arc meeting -comes too close to their top fixture of the year.

As for today, the main event is the listed race for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET. Pollys Mark (Clive Cox/ Richard Hughes) is very consistent at this level and is top-rated; she seems certain to be in the money, but strong opposition comes from two improving fillies who are both unbeaten this year. Ferdous (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) has won both her starts very easily, but is taking a huge leap in class here, while Sparkling Smile (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) is also moving up in grade after winning her last 5 races. Both are probably better than their current rating suggests, but they will need to be if they are to defeat Pollys Mark.

At the other meetings, we hope that Micky Fenton can kick off a successful weekend (i.e. Cologne on Sunday!) by winning the mile handicap at 17.30 at Haydock on Tom Tate´s Leviathan.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Darajaat - Apace - Byrony
2. Race: Rock N Roll Ransom - Splinter Cell - Don`T Call Me
3. Race: Deacon Blues - Joe Packet - Kanaf
4. Race: Ferdoos - Polly`S Mark - Sparkling Smile
5. Race: Bronze Prince - Bramshaw - Kajima
6. Race: Safari Journey - Switched Off - Mykingdomforahorse

Thursday, September 23, 2010

German runners in France today

German-trained runners have been very successful in recent days in France and have more chances today at both Saint-Cloud and Fontainebleau´s evening meeting. In our opinion, Ustilago (Werner Baltromei/ Dominique Boeuf) has easily the best chance of them. He runs in the listed Prix Turenne for 3yo ´s over 2400 metres at 13.20 CET. The highly rated Lando colt runs here in preference to the Preis von Europa on Sunday.

Mashoor (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) looks his most dangerous opponent. He has been off since running up to the smart Goldwaki at Chantilly on Diane day, but has never yet been out of the first two. Speartooth and Zack Hall are next best. Baltromei also has each-way chances with Königstreue (Boeuf) and Crossbill (Guyon) in two divisions of the mile handicap at 14.25 and 15.30 respectively.

Baltromei´s Debussy (Theo Bachelot) could also run well in the 1800 metres handicap at 18.30 at Fontainebleau.

N.H. racing at Perth and Fontwell

Both Irish trainer Gordon Elliott and course specialist Nigel Twiston-Davis were on the scorecard yesterday at Perth and we expect them to carry on the good work today, when they both have fancied runners in several races. Twiston-Davies´ best chances are probably Frontier Dancer (Paddy Brennan) in the novice chase at 16.20 CET and Lodgician (son Sam in the saddle) in the handicap hurdle at 17.20, while Elliott can counter with Supercede in the opening novice hurdle at 15.20 and King Roonah, who loves this track, in the handicap chase at 17.50, both partnered by Paul Carberry.

The most interesting event at Fontwell is the beginners chase at 15.40 over 2 1/4 miles. Only 6 runners, but they include two smart hurdlers making their debut over fences - Harry Trucker (Gary and Jamie Moore) - last seen when a faller in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury in February- and Pepe Simo (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who last ran at Cheltenham in April. This is Ruby´s only mount of the afternoon so we give him preference, while the Moores can get back on the winning trail with course specialist Space Cowboy, who has bottom weight in the handicap chase at 17.40. The 2 3/4 mile handicap hurdle at 17.10 sees the much-improved Makena (David Rees/ Richard Johnson) attempt to win her 5th race in a row. She was very convincing over this CD last time, so can certainly win again; German-bred Vacario (Mark Gillard/ Tom Phelan) is an each-way alternative.

Pontefract and Wolverhampton

Flat racing in the U.K. this afternoon at Pontefract and this evening on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. Best race at the Yorkshire track is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00 CET, in which all 8 runners seem to have chances. Both Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey saddle two runners, with Submariner (Kieren Fallon) and easy Yarmouth winner High Office (Paul Hanagan) respectively the choice on jockey bookings.

We have a slight preference for the former, who has been running in better races and was not disgraced when 8th of 18 in a hot handicap at Newbury last Saturday. Fastnet Storm (Tom Tate/ Neil Callan) is the only CD winner in the field, and was runner-up in a similar race last time at Ripon, while top-weight Sirvino (David Barron) has been out of form but would have a great chance in his 2009 form, when he won 5 successive races. Tiger Webb (Henry Cecil/ Ian Mongan) looks a good thing to win the 2yo maiden half an hour later, having finished a close runner-up on both starts so far, but beware of John Gosden`s Oversteer (William Buick), who showed little on his debut but is expected to show considerable improvement now.

It could be significant that Buick has been sent to Yorkshire to ride Oversteer, as he has to rush afterwards to Wolverhampton to ride High Twelve in the main event there, a handicap over 8 1/2 furlongs at 21.00. This is a very tricky race, in which Layline (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) - runner-up here last time over 7 furlongs with some of these behind - and Secretive (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) - won last time at Brighton despite hanging all over the place - and consistent Red Somerset (Mike Murphy/ Emmet McNamara) also make the short list. Multiple German group winner Aspectus (Jamie Osborne/ Fergus Sweeney) has top-weight here, but at his best would laugh at these rivals. However he has been very disappointing and inconsistent so far in his British races and is probably best left alone for the time being.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Listed race at Goodwood

The most interesting race of the day is the listed event over 10 furlongs at 16.45 CET at Goodwood; even with only 5 runners, this is still an intriguing contest which should mainly concern the 4yo Holberg (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and the 2 3yo´s Bullet Train (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Hot Prospect (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson), who both ran - badly - in the Derby. The former finisihed in front on that occasion, and now meets Cecil´s runner on 3 lbs better terms, but there are still reasons for believing that Bullet Train will come out on top this time. He was an impressive winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial (Hot Prospect third) and is now being tried at what is possibly a better distance. In any case Hot Prospect probably needs softer going than he will find today. In view of these doubts, we select the Godolphin runner, who was runner-up to the smart Laheeb in a Kempton Group Three last time. He is also trying a new trip, as he has been seen as a stayer (he won the Queens Vase last year) but that should be no problem this afternoon.

Otherwise at Goodwood we expect Jeremy Noseda and Ryan Moore to land a double with Sea Change in the 3yo handicap at 17.20 and Alfonso the Wise in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.55. Both these races look quite open, but Sea Change in particular looks capable of further improvement.

There are some large fields this afternoon at Redcar, but the sport on offer is very moderate. 10yo Fremen (David and Adrian Nicholls) is a model of consistency despite his advancing years; he can score for the 8th time this season in the claiming race at 17.00, while Destiny Blue (Jamie Osborne/ Paul Mulrennan) showed much improved form last time and can defy a penalty in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.35.

There is jumps racing this afternoon at Perth in Scotland and Downpatrick in N. Ireland. At the latter track, Ruby Walsh, getting back in the swing of things after his long injury layoff, has 3 good rides - Wee Giant for Willie Mullins at 15.10, Golan Boy for Tony Martin at 16.15 and Your Busy for J Nash at 16.50 and all 3 have chances.
Nigel Twiston-Davies and Gordon Elliott are usually the trainers to follow a Perth, and both could be among the winners today. The former´s Mad Moose, with son Sam in the saddle, can make up for an early fall last time by taking the 3 miles handicap hurdle at 18.20.

Fans of Barney Curley should keep an eye on one-time German classic winner Aviso (Queally) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 20.50 at this evening´s all-weather Kempton meeting. Best bet here could be Wallis (Luca Cumani/ Kirsty Milczarek) in the fillies handicap at 21.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dominant - Namibian - Mariners Lodge
2. Race: Strictly Rhythm - Sud Pacifique - Dordogne
3. Race: Humidor - Desert Icon - Perfect Flight
4. Race: Hot Prospect - Holberg - Bullet Train
5. Race: Sea Change - Doon Kalal - Heart Of Hearts
6. Race: Dhaamer - Alfonso The Wise - Kings Troop
7. Race: Witchry - Sermons Mount - Mrs Boss

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Beverley, Folkestone and Stratford

Very modest fare at today´s three meetings. At Beverley the most interesting race is the 5 furlongs conditions event at 16.30 CET. Captain Dunne (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) won this last year and has an obvious chance of doubling up. Last time he finished a close 4th is a listed race and on that form holds CD specialist Look Busy (Alan Berry/ Pat Mathers). However Tax Free (David and Adrian Nicholls), who missed out a race yesterday to wait for this, looks hard to beat; his second place to Astrophysical Jet at the Curragh last time is easily the best form in the race. Mark Johnston rarely has runners in selling races, but Always Dixie (Jo Fanning), an easy winner only on Saturday, can take the opening race at 15.00, and the same team can follow up with well-bred debutant Jalors in the 2yo maiden at 18.00.

At Folkestone, Hughie Morrison holds a strong hand in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.20 with Duster (Steve Drowne) and Realt na Mara (Jim Crowley) both entered. Henry Cecil´s Kings Bayonet (Tom Queally) has not been very convincing so far this season, but is dropping in grade here and looks the main danger. Cecil and Queally have in any case much better prospects with Sentosa in the maiden race half an hour later.

Several German-breds are in action at Stratford´s N.H. fixture. Olivino (Bernard Llewellyn/ Isabell Tompsett) has a definite each-way chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.10, while Swordsman (Charlie Gordon/ TJ Cannon) could go well off a light weight in the handicap chase at 16.40 if he stays today´s distance of 3 1/2 miles. Walamo (Tim Vaughan/ Tom David) faces a tough task under a double penalty in the novice chase at 15.40 and may not be able to concede weight to the fellow last-time-out winners Cootehill (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) and Mam Ratagan, while chasing debutant Ravenclaw (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) is a danger to all if he can reproduce his hurdles form over fences

Monday, September 20, 2010

Hamilton, Kempton, Leicester and Ballinrobe

Most of the top jockeys are in action at Kempton´ s all-weather fixture this afternoon, where we hope that Frankie Dettori can land a double for Saeed bin Suroor. His mount Terdaad in the 2yo maiden over a mile at 16.30 CET started favourite on his debut at York, but lost his chance by a very slow start; if he gets off on terms here, he can recover those losses. Drankie can follow up with the consistent Barq in the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 18.30, where hat-trick seeking Dubai Media (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon) and Rule of Nature (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) look the main dangers. Stoute and Moore can also land a double, with Giant´s Play in the fillies maiden over 1 1/2 miles at 17.00, and Hymn Sheet in the 3yo handicap over the same trip half an hour later.

The main event at Hamilton, a 6 furlongs conditions race at 15.40, has cut up badly and there are only 5 runners, 3 of whom ran in Saturday´s Ayr Gold Cup. Knot on Wood (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) did best of them in 6th and deserves to win a decent race, but Rileyskeepingfaith (Mick Channon/ Tom Eaves) was not far behind and is now 7 lbs better off, so there should be little in it. Godolphin´ s Global City (Ted Durcan) faces a tough task here.
The card at Leicester is mainly moderate, but the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.20 is quite a decent race. La Fortunata (Mike Murphy/ Andrea Atzeni) has been in great form and has finished first or second all recent starts. However top-weight Fathom Five (Chris Wall/ George Baker), behind him at Epsom last time, may be able to reverse the form, while distance specialist Noodles Blue Boy (Ollie Pears/ Franny Norton) and Walvis Bay (Tom Tate/ Micky Fenton) are two more dangers in a tricky race.

There are the usual maximum fields at the Irish N.H. meeting at Ballinrobe. Most interesting race here is the 2 3/34 mile chase at 18.35, in which Bob´s Pride (Dermot Weld/ Ruby Walsh), who fell when still challenging in a valuable Galway Festival race last time, must give weight to the useful Essex (Denis Cullen/ Robbie Colgan) and Alpha Ridge(Paul Nolan/ Paul Carberry). At these weights, the last-named could just have the edge.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

German raid on Strasbourg and Milan

Huge numbers of German-trained runners are in action at Strasbourg and Milan today - with no fewer than 37 runners at the former track and another 12 in Italy. Strasbourg probably offers the better betting opportunities. There are 7 Germans in the main event, a listed race over 2100 metres at 15.25 - Irini (Hans-Jürgen Gröschel/ Theo Bachelot), Derwisch (Andreas Wöhler/ Maxime Guyon), Dwilano (Norbert Sauer/ Sylvain Ruis), Tingly (Werner Hfter/Aurelien Lemaitre), Oriental Lion (Miroslav Rulec/ Daniele Porcu), Schiller Aanon (Waldemar Hickst/ Dominique Boeuf) and Durban Thunder (Torsten Mundry/ Norman Richter) - but they will all find it hard to catch the admirable 9yo Young Tiger, who has won 14 of his 26 career starts and been in the money on all the others and is trying to win the valuable Defi du Galop series for the second time. However it will be a big surprise if there are not at least 3 German winners here. Our main fancies are Le Danseur (Hefter/ Guyon) at 14.50, Stat ini (Hans-Walter Hiller/ Ruis) at 16.35, Duellant (Peter Schiergen/ Guyon) at 17.05, Accaccio (Werner Baltromei/ Boeuf) at 17.35 and Tahiti Pearl (Connie Brandstätter/ Laurent Bouldoires) over hurdles at 14.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zafeereli - Wise Boy - Isis De La Vis
2. Race: Milreves - Robin Royal - Tahiti Pearl
3. Race: Fee des Aigles - Keralino - El Bulli
4. Race: Via Col Vento - Representing - Fleur Enchantee
5. Race: Virginia Desir - Sherkan Du Berlais - Afterlight
6. Race: Divin Tremp - Lawick - Valtahir
7. Race: Pegmalion - Duellant - Slick The Dreamer
8. Race: Sirjoshua Reynolds - Tucumano - Godfreyson
9. Race: Magic Artiste - Bold Pride - Vererot

Plumpton and Uttoxeter

Two N.H. fixtures in England today, with both Plumpton and Uttoxeter offering only low-key sport, although some of the top jumps trainers - Nicholls, King, Pipe - have runners. We expect Pipe´s Frosted Glass (Tom Scudamore) to run out the winner of Uttoxeter´s main event, a handicap chase at 17.20 CET. The much improved 4yo still seems well handicapped despite 3 recent wins. The most interesting runner however at this meeting is Alan King´s Pouvoir (Sam Thomas) in the novice chase half an hour later. A smart young hurdler in 2007, he has only run 3 times since, but if anywhere near his old form should win this, at the main expense of recent Newton Abbot scorer Quell the Storm (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton), while ex-German Nordwind (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) should also be in the money. With Nigel Twiston-Davies having made his usual good start, his Ackertac (Paddy Brennan) looks the best bet here; he runs in the novice hurdle at 15.20.

At Plumpton, the 2 mile novice hurdle at 16.00 is an intriguing event. The two penalised runners Freedom Fire (Gary and Jamie Moore) and Marc Aurele (Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon) both look useful, but it is not sure that they can concede the weight to the promising Whatdoyoucallit (Evan Williams/ Tony McCoy). Then there are two ex-Germans running here - Aragall (George Baker/ Andrew Tinkler) and Sommersturm (Barney Curley/ Denis O´Regan) who have definite chances, especially the latter if Barney has been able to bring him back to form. A good performance by Freedom Fire would be an obvious pointer to the chances of Tignello (Nicholls/ Mahon) in the following handicap hurdle, in which Gary and Jamie Moore are represented by recent winner Herschel, moving up ín grade. German-bred The Lemonpie (Milton Harris/ Gerard Tumelty) would appear to have little chance here; his trainer has much better prospects with Royal & Ancient (Warren Marston) in the opening 3yo hurdle at 15.00.

Hamilton and Fairyhouse

There is no flat racing in England today, with action on the level confined to Hamilton in Scotland and Fairyhouse in Ireland. By far the most valuable race of the day is the sales race for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.45 at the Irish track, which was won last year by the top-class Dick Turpin. There is nothing of that calibre in today´s field, which to be honest looks sub-standard for an event of this value.

Dermot Weld, who is in Canada with his stable jockey Pat Smullen, has two likely candidates in Moonlit Garden (Kevin Manning) and Catalpa Sail (Shane Gorey), while top-rated Bathwick Bear (David and Richard Evans) is a British raider, but has a lot of weight and also a poor draw. Our selection is French-trained Dereenatra (Eoghan O´Neill/ Johnny Murtagh), whose French form might be good enough and has a high number draw, usually strongly favoured here. It would be no surprise if the winner of the 2yo fillies maiden at 15.45 were to prove superior in the long run to the sales race winner; in particular the two well-bred newcomers Asheerah (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough) and Look at Me (Aidan O´Brien/ Murtagh) must be closely watched.

At Hamilton, Richard Hughes - a very infrequent visitor here- could be the jockey to follow. He has 3 promising rides for Mick Channon - Cathcart Castle in the 2yo handicap at 15.10, Galloping Queen in the 3yo maiden an hour later, and Mykingdomforahorse in the staying handicap another hour later. He also has a chance on Hughie Morrison´s Widow Bird in the 3yo handicap at 16.40. We also like the lightly-raced and improving Ming Meng (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) in the 6 furlongs fillies handicap at 15.40.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Newbury and Newmarket

There is plenty more good racing this afternoon, and Newbury´s card is headed by the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.30 CET and the Group Three Dubai Airport World Trophy over 5 furlongs at 16.40. The latter event has attracted many of the leading sprinters, including Astrophysical Jet (Ed McMahon/ Graham Gibbons), easy winner of a similar event at the Curragh last time, when Hamish McGonagall (Tim Easterby/ Kieren Fallon) finished 4th and Triple Aspect (William Haggas/ Liam Jones) 5th. With the Haggas yard now in good form, we hope to see the last-named triumph here, although Gilt Edge Girl (Clive Cox/ Luke Morris) - third in the Goldene Peitsche last time- and Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ William Buick) are also dangerous. Two more stables currently in top form are those of Brian Meehan, who can take the Mill Reef with Crown Prosecutor (Martin Dwyer) - Andrew Balding´s Desert Law (Jimmy Fortune), the only maiden in the field, could be the dark horse h ere - and John Gosden, whose improving Senate (Buick) can complete a hat-trick in the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.05.

The top race at Newmarket is the Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy over 7 furlongs for 2yo´s at 15.55 and worth a whopping 200,000 pounds. Richard Fahey is likely to be at Ayr but still has a good chance of landing this with Sir Reginald (Declan McDonogh). Oracle (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) represents the top Irish connections, while Michael Jarvis - who suffered some expensive reverses yesterday- saddles the fancied Roman Eagle (Philip Robinson). Clive Brittain and Mark Johnston each saddle 2 runners, and we like the look of the latter´s Malthouse (Jean-Pierre Guillambert), a half-brother to top German miler Martillo. Of equal interest is the Cesarewitch Trial at 16.30, which as the name suggests, is a handicap over 2 1/4 miles, a distance over which very few of the 15 runners have ever raced. One of them is the likely favourite Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Murtagh), but we are not convinced and prefer to look among the light weights - especially Simonside (Brian Ellison/ C hris Hayes) and Montparnasse (Meehan/ Jean-Paul Beuzelin); we would also like Lady Hestia (Marcus Tregoning/ Hayley Turner), who has won 4 of her 5 starts this year, but the stable form remains very poor.

Ayr Gold Cup day

The Ayr Gold Cup day is the biggest fixture of the year in Scotland and today´s card is excellent, though very tricky for punters. The Gold Cup itself, a 6 furlongs handicap at 16.20 CET, is a 6 furlongs handicap with the maximum 27 runners and is always one of the hottest sprints of the season. The effect of the draw is always a debatable point - yesterday the high numbers seemed to have an advantage but we would not bank 100% on this today.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that several trainers have multiple entries, including David Nicholls, who has won this race 5 times in the last 10 years, with 5 runners, course specialist and in-form Richard Fahey 6 and David Barron 3, including the likely favourite Poet´s Place (Phillip Makin), drawn 12 and carrying a 5 kbs penalty for winning in last week´s Portland Handicap at Doncaster. He is one of several leading fancies with a draw in the middle, while the best of the high numbers could be Victoire de Lyphard (Nicholls, with his son Adrian in the saddle), drawn 24. He is the onlY 3yo in the field, but this age group has a poor record here and we prefer to stick to the older runners. 8yo Knot in Wood (Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), drawn 13, could run well at a big price, while Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), drawn 11, is another who can go well from the centre of the track, together with Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Ted Durcan), bidding to become the first Scottish winner of this event for over 30 years. Others who must be mentiond are Tom Dascombe´s pair Noverre to Go (Ross Atkinson) and Jonny Mudball (Seb Sanders), while Evens and Odds (Nicholls/ Billy Cray) had several of these behind him when winning the Stewards Cup at Goodwood.

The Silver Cup, the consolation race at 15.15 is equally difficult, although Definightly (Charlton/ Adam Bschizza), drawn 13, must go close after his listed win at Goodwood last time. Hajoum, one of 4 Mark Johnston runners with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, was also a Goodwood winner last time, while Hogmaneigh (Sanders) looks the best of Jim Goldie´s runners and Joseph Henry the best of David Nicholls´ with son Adrian aboard.

Supporting these 2 handicaps are the Group Three Firth of Clyde Stakes for 2yo fillies at 15.45 and the listed Doonside Cup over 10 furlongs at 17.30. In the latter event Saeed bin Suroor saddles 2 runners, Vesuve and Kirklees, and although Dettori partners the former, we prefer the latter who has Ted Durcan in the saddle; he has not run for almost a year, but is the class horse in the field. In the 2yo event, there are 3 unbeaten runners- Finoon (bin Suroor/ Durcan) Tallahasse (Alan Swinbank/ Peter Mcdonald) and Barefoot Lady /Fahey/ Hanagan), while Godolphin´s other runner Ragsah (Dettori) and Rimth (Paul Cole/ Jamie Spencer) are also dangerous.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cosmic Moon - Raucous Behaviour - Diamond Penny
2. Race: Definightly - Irish Heartbeat - Hajoum
3. Race: Rimth - Barefoot Lady - Ragsah
4. Race: Poet`S Place - Victoire De Lyphar - Hawkeyethenoo
5. Race: Justonefortheroad - Captain Ramius - Docofthebay
6. Race: Kings Gambit - Vesuve - Kirklees
7. Race: Our Joe Mac - Tamaathul - Colepeper
8. Race: Lady Luachmhar - Dazzling Light - Bollin Felix

Friday, September 17, 2010

Newmarket and Ayr

Newmarket´s 8 race card today consists entirely of races for 2yo´s and as there are a total of 115 runners declared, it is clear that there is plenty of demand. The most interesting race is the Tattersalls Millions Fillies Auction Stakes over 6 furlongs at 17.10 CET, and worth 100,000 pounds in prize-money. Richard Hannon has an outstanding record in these sales races and has entered Tale Unfold (Richard Hughes) and Kalahaag (Ryan Moore), who must both be respected, while Aidan O´Brien sends over Queen of Spain (Johnny Murtagh) from Ireland. However none of these looks out of the top drawer, and possibly Khoor Sheed (Luc Cumani/ Kiern Fallon), third in a group race here last time, and the once-raced Warm Breeze (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) can be preferred. The latter created an enormous impression when winning on her debut at Nottingham in July, and although this is obviously a much tougher race, she could still remain unbeaten.

The big race at Ayr is the Ayr Bronze Cup over 6 furlongs at 17.30, one of two consolation races for tomorrow´s main feature the Ayr Gold Cup. These valuable sprint handicaps always attract huge fields, and there are 27 runners here. Clearly the draw will be important and it is generally felt that high numbers have an advantage. If this is the case (which is not 100% certain!) then the ones to consider are last year´s winner Baldemar (Barry McHugh), drawn 19, Coolminx /Paul Hanagan), drawn 23, both trained by Richard Fahey, ante-post favourite Courageous (Billy Cray), drawn 22 and Amenable (Adrian Nicholls), drawn 21, both trained by David Nicholls. Should middle numbers be favoured, then Oldjoesaid (Kevin Ryan/ Silvstre d Sousa) clearly coms into the reckoning. Almost anything could happen here but we give a tentative vote to Baldemar, who is only 2lbs higher than last year, when he showed that he has the right attitude for such cavalry charges,
.

"Arc" trial at Newbury

some good racing today and pride of place goes to Newbury, where the main feature is the Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial over 11 furlongs at 16.10 CET. To be honest, this event rarely has any bearing on the Longchamp race, but it has still attracted some smart runners, notably Godolphin´s Campanologist (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan), who comes here on the back of two German Group One victories - at Hamburg and Cologne. As a result, he has to concede upwards of 7 lbs all round, which will be far from easy. Rainbow Peak (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan) is one obvious danger. He is now stepping up in class, but has done nothing wrong so far, having won all his 3 races last year and this year finishing first or second every time. Much-travelled Halicarnassus (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) could also go well over a distance which might be ideal, while Bauer on his old form (e.g. when runner-up in the 2008 Melbourne Gold Cup) is another threat. However Campanologoist seems much improved this season and we hope to see him uphold the value of the German form.
The main supporting feature is the Dubai Duty Free Cup over 7 furlongs at 15.35. This is only a listed race, but in fact has a better field than many group races. Three runners stand out - Godolphin´s Delegator, who has the top rating but has not been seen since running 5th to Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile last autumn; the very consistent Yaa Wayl (Jarvis/ Callan), who has been in the money all 10 career starts and is a distance specialist; and Awzaan (Mark Johnston/ Richard Hills), one of last season´s top juveniles who now seems to be coming back to form. It is a tricky race, but we expect one of this trio to win and go for Delegator.
Although they are not really good betting propositions, the 2yo races here should be watched cerefully, as some interesting prospects from big stables are entered, and in particular the mile race at 16.45 is almost always won by a top performer. Another to be watched is German-bred Oldrick (Philip Hobbs/ Jamie Spencer) who runs in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 18.30. He has not run on the flat for 2 years, but his trainer is always be feared.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Pontefract and Yarmouth

Highlight of the Pontefract meeting this afternoon is the fillies handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.00 CET, which has attracted 15 runners and looks wide open. Lightly-raced Ardent (John Gosden/ William Buick) is almost certain to start a warm favourite in view of the fantastic stable form, but this is a much tougher race than the maiden she won last time at Doncaster. Top-weight Gouray´s Girl (Walter Swinbúrn/ Eddie Ahern) was just touched off at Goodwood last time and gets our vote, although CD specialist Sioux Rising (Richard Fahey/ Barry McHugh) and Overdose´s half-sister Poppet´s Lovein (Andy Haynes/ Steve Drowne) also look dangerous. Best bet at Pontefract should be Michael Jarvis´ 3yo filly Dark Promise (Philip Robinson) in the maiden race at 18.00. She started favourite on her debut at Newbury, ran very green but still finished a close runner-up and can go one better here.

At Yarmouth the main event, a handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 17.40 has cut up badly with 4 non-runners, leaving only 6 to face the starter. Swiss Act (Mark Johnston/ Royston Ffrench) has been off since May, but could still take this, at the main expense of bottom-weight Activate (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), an easy winner at Haydock over this distance last time.

There is also racing this evening on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and in Ireland a mixed meeting at Listowel. Most interesting runner at the latter meeting is Uncle Junior (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) in the beginners chase at 17.25. He was a very promising young hurdler a couple of years ago but has been off the track for over 2 years; if anywhere near his old form, he should take this en route to better things. At Wolverhampton the conditions race at 20.55 looks fascinating, but is not a race to bet on as most of the runners are coming off a long break, notably Godolphin´s pair Calvados Blues - now running for the first time in the U.K. and last seen at Meydan - and Atlantlis Star, off for 11 months, as well as all-weather specialist Beauchamp Viceroy, off since April.

Betting forecast Pontefract:
1. Race: Angaric - Tislaam - Young Gladiator
2. Race: Old Master Expert - Valerius Maximus - Hygrove Gal
3. Race: Frontline Girl - Honest Broker - Daaweitza
4. Race: Gouray Girl - Ardent - Esuvia
5. Race: Ultimate Quest - Capable Guest - Rare Ruby
6. Race: Dark Promise - Highland Park - Palio Square
7. Race: Sharakti - Elijah Pepper - Carlitos Spirit
8. Race: Glenmuir - Scarab - Seldom



Betting forecast Yarmouth:
1. Race: Speculate - New Latin - Gekko
2. Race: Seelo - Specific Gravity - Cadore
3. Race: Parlour Games - Man Of God - Elysian Heights
4. Race: Sabratha - Pigeon Hollow - Salvationist
5. Race: Cometh - Jibaal - Ajaafa
6. Race: Activate - Swiss Act - Cotillion
7. Race: Albeed - Sir Walter Raleigh - Bravo Bravo
8. Race: Pavement Games - Just Jimmy - Rebecca Romero

start of Ayr Gold Cup meeting

although autumn does not officially start until next week, there is certainly a whiff of autumn in the air today, with 8 races at all 5 meetings and most of them with large fields of mainly moderate performers. Most of the interest is centred on the first day of Ayr´s big Gold Cup meeting, but today´s card is very modest. The best race is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.20 CET, which has only 8 runners but still looks very tricky. The two top-weights Bencoolen (David Nicholls/ Marc Geran) and Mirrored (David Allan/ David Allan) have been running without success in better company and we prefer to look lower down the weights. The likely favourite is Northside Prince (Alan Swinbank/ Peter Mcdonald)., who has won his last 3 races, two of them this CD, but our selection is Plaisterer (Chris Wall/ Seb Sanders), who won in good style at Epsom last time. Swinburn´s Silvertrees is a late withdrawal from the 2yo novice stakes at 16.20, which leaves only 4 runners. Three of them have sco red already, but the debutant A Southside Boy (Jim Goldie/ Joe Fanning) is an interesting German-bred runner, being by Samum.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: New Springs - So Is She - Joe Le Taxi
2. Race: Mango Music - Bravely - Sandwith
3. Race: Cafe Elektric - Goldenveil - Red Presence
4. Race: Arabian Spirit - Keys Of Cyprus - Antoniola
5. Race: Northside Prince - Plaisterer - Jutland
6. Race: Legal Legacy - Slikback Jack - Revue Princess
7. Race: Lord Aeryn - Berbice - Cara`S Request
8. Race: Bollin Judith - Pertemps Networks - Chocolate Caramel

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Goodwood, Lingfield and Sedgefield (N.H.)

It is afternoon racing only from now on (except at the all-weather tracks at Kempton and Wolverhampton) and the main event today is the listed race for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.45 CET. In theory this race should lie between Big Issue (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Surrey Star (Ron Teal/ Liam Keniry), both group-placed last time, but our selection is Titus Mills( Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer), narrow winner at 16/1 of a maiden race at Ascot on his only start. Obviousy this is much tougher, but the stable´s juveniles are in great form and this one has been entered in top races.

There is also flat racing at Lingfield where the first 5 races are on turf and the last 3 on the all-weather. Frankie Dettori is the big attraction, and his main reason for riding here is Sahafh in the 2o fillies maiden at 18.40. The other two Godolphin runners Coin Box (Antioco Murgia) and Pencarrow (Royston Fffrench) are the dangers, together with Secret Love (Mikael Magnusson/ George Baker), who was an excellent second on his debut.

They go over jumps at Sedgefield, where the novice hurdle at 16.00 looks the most interesting race. Grand Zouki (George Moore/ Barry Keniry) was an easy winner over this CD last time, but is penalised as a result and not certain to confirm the placings with runner-up Cailin Na Ree (Mike Todhunter/ Graham Lee). However Henro Boy (Michael O´Hare/ Andrew Lynch) comes here with good form in Ireland to his credit and can beat the lot of them. There are some German-breds with chances here, notably Moon Melody in the staying chase at 18.20 and Tiger King in a handicap chase over 2 miles at 17.45.