Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Rest of Cheltenham

The card opens with the Supreme Novices Hurdle at 14.30 CET, in which Douvan (Mullins/ Walsh) is regarded as the Irish banker. 7 of the 12 runners are Irish-trained, including 3 more from the Mullins stable, but we are hoping for a British win here, either with L´Ami Serge (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) or Qewy (John Ferguson/ Noel Fehily). As in Faugheen´s case, Douvan - who has won both his irish races with the greatest of ease- could well win, but does not appeal as a good bet at the likely odds. This is a very strong field with 8 last-time-out winners.

The Arkle at 15.05, the championship race for novice chasers, also features a Mullins/ Walsh hotpot, the exciting Un de Sceaux, winner of 7 of his 8 starts. His problem is that he is extremely headstrong and will probably tear off at a suicidal pace; Cheltenham is not a good track for front-runners and there mjust be a Chance tjhat her will burn himself out, or make mistakes, so again at the likely very short Odds, we woulkd rather go against him, our reach waxy hoopes being Gods Owen (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Three Kingdoms (Ferguson/ McCoy).

However we do expect the odds-on Mullins/ Walsh favourite to win the Mares Hurdle at 17.00. Mullins has won this six years running with Quevega and has found an excellent replacement in Annoie Power. She has won 11 of her 12 starts, her only defeat coming here last year in the World Hurdle over 3 miles; today´s trip seems much more suitable for the daughter of Shirocco out of German Group race winner Anno Luce, and we think that she can outclass this opposition despite her long absence from the racecourse. Mullins´ other runner Glens Melody (Townend) is next best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Douvan - L`Ami Serge - Jollyallan
2. Race: Vibrato Valtat - Josses Hill - Clarcam
3. Race: Pendra - Ned Stark - The Druids Nephew
4. Race: Faugheen - The New One - Jezki
5. Race: Glens Melody - Polly Peachum - L`Unique
6. Race: Very Wood - Sego Success - The Job Is Right
7. Race: Generous Ransom - Thomas Crapper - Little Jon