Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Champion Chase at Cheltenham

main feature on Cheltenham´s second day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2 miles at 16.20 CET. This is one of the most spectacular races of the year and this time it is exceptionally tricky with 3 past winners in the field of 11, all of them with question marks ovetr them. We can probably discard old Sizing Europe (Henry de Bromhead /Jonathan Burke) as he is now 13, but he does have a really good record over this CD, having won the Arkle in 2010, this race in 2011 and has finished in the frame three times since. However 2013 winner Sprinter Sacre (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and 2014 winner Sire de Grugy (Gary and Jamie Moore) are a different matter; they were both convincing winners, especially the former who was at that time rated the best chaser since Arkle, but have had well documented health problems since. His problem was a heart tremor, but connections seem confident that he has got over it, even though he he was beaten on his comeback by Dodging Bullets (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) and we expect him to reverse that form this time. Nicholls also runs Mr. Mole (AP McCoy) who is much improved this season, but he is a tricky character and in our view mjust improve again to win here. When he won last time, Sire de Grugy fell after a round of sticky jumping, but he came back to form with an easy win against inferior opposiiton at Chepstow, although that was certainly an unorthodox preparation for this. Willie Mullins, the man of the meeting so far with 4 winners yesterday, saddles Champagne Fever (Ruby Walsh) in the Ricci colours and this one also has a good CD record, having won the bumper here in 2012, the Supreme in 2013 and was only narrowly defeated in last year´s Arkle; he should go close, although we are not sure that 2 miles is his best trip these days. The others all seem to be well held on form, and we hope to see Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy confirm their status as tzhe best horses in the field and fight it out between them; is the former is anywhere near his old form, he should win.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Nichols Canyon - Outlander - Windsor Park
2. Race: Don Poli - Kings Palace - The Young Master
3. Race: Aux Ptits Soins - Activial - Blackmail
4. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Sire De Grugy - Dodging Bullets
5. Race: Any Currency - Toutancarmont - Sire Collonges
6. Race: Hostile Fire - All Yours - Arabian Revolution
7. Race: Bordini - Moon Racer - Supasundae