Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham

The Cheltenham N.H. Festival starts today, not only the biggest jumps meeting of the year, but also by far the biggest betting meeting, with 27 fiercely competitive races over the next 4 days. Not only do we have the best jumps horses in the U.K. in action, but also a huge raiding party from Ireland, spearheaded by Willie Mullins, who has sent 50 horses across the Irish Sea to compete, and - almost unbelievably- saddles the hot favourites for all 4 Grade One races today.

In the main feature, the Champion Hurdle at 16.20 CET, Mullins runs Faugheen (Ruby Walsh), who is unbeaten in 8 starts, including at this meeting last year. Obviously nobody will be surprised if he wins, but at the likely odds we do not think that he is a good bet: his won last year was over a much longer distance, while tjhe horses he has beaten so easily have not been out of the top drawer. Today he faces really strong Opposition, headed by two orthwer runners trained by Mullins, German-bred Arctic Fire (Danny Mullins) and the great Hurricane Fly (Paul Townend), who has won this race twice and has no fewer than 20 Grade One hurdle races to his credit.

However the one we like best is the reigning champion Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ AP McCoy). He has indeed finished behind Hurricane Fly on his 3 latest starts, but they were all on soft ground and the better going here will suit him much better than the Fly, and so will the expected strong pace.

Only 3 of the 8 runners are trained in the U.K. and only one of them has a real chance, that is The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), who has won all his 4 starts this season and was so unlucky here last year, when he finished third after being badly hampered. His jumping has not always been totally convincing, but if he gets the luck of the race this time, he must be involved in the finish.

Clearly Faugheen can win, but will require a career-best performance, and in our view Jezki each way is a safer bet.