Sunday, March 29, 2015

good racing on the flat and over jumps

for a Sunday the U.K. cards are quite strong, with the second day of the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster and the final N.H. card of the season from Ascot, while we have the Irish Lincolnshire on the opening day of the Curragh´s season in Ireland, as well as a decent jumps card from Limerick. It has been raining everywhere and this may well be an advantage for Stuccodor (Dermot Weld/ Luke Dempsey), who has top weight in the big Irish handicap at 17.55 CET. Stuccodor won the race last year and tries again off a 6 lbs higher mark, almost equalised by the claim of his good apprentice rider. The horse needs very soft ground and it looks as if everything will be in his favour, although a handicap with 26 runners is lof course not that simple. All the top Irish trainers have runners at the Curragh, including Aidan O´Brien, who will also be giving some of his classic hopes a racecourse gallop after racing. It is interesting that the O´Brien runners will be partnered by Ryan Moore., while the trainer´s eldest son Joseph, nominally the stable´s no. 1 jockey, will be riding for the first time ever over jumps at Limerick. His weight problems seem to have the better of him at the moment. At Limerick he partners his father´s Egyptian Warrior in the novice hurdle at 16.30. This looks a very tough race, and we fear that the going may be too soft for him; our preference is for Sambremont (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh).

There are huge fields at Doncaster, including 21 runners in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.20, in which we like the chances of Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Charlie Bishop); he has not won since landing Munich´s Silberne Peitsche in 2013 but has slipped to a very lenient handicap rating and if he is anywhere near his old form should go close today. Another one who looks really well handicapped on his öld form is Rock a Doodle Doo (Sally Hall/ Simon Walker) in the amateur riders handicap at 18.30; he is crtainly fit enough, as he won over hurdles recently, and he has the U.K.´s best amateur in the saddle.

Ascort looks very tricky, as we do not know how much rain will fall, but it is probably AP McCoy´s last opportunity to ride a winner here and he can take the opener at 15.00 on Rebecca Curtis´ Vintage Vinnie, with the Queen´s Special Agent (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) the obvious danger. Our each-way tip here is German-bred Sternrubin (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) in the handicap hurdle for 4yo´s at 16.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zacynthus - Canyari - After The Sunset
2. Race: Hail The Hero - Fullon Clarets - Dark Red
3. Race: Nortron - Cabelo - Miracle Ninetynine
4. Race: Lexington Abbey - Withernsea - Basil Berry
5. Race: Elkaayed - First Mohican - Island Remede
6. Race: Darrington - Storm Rock - Logorrheic
7. Race: Trimoulet - Gone Viral - Ginger Jack
8. Race: Shalambar - Rock Of Leon - Houston Dynimo