Monday, March 30, 2015

3 jumps meetings today

all jumping today, as the flat season gets off to its usual stuttering start. The ground is soft at Chepstow and Warwick but good at Kempton. Thje best race of the day is the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at Warwick at 16.25 CET in which Horizontal Speed (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) looks like going off as a strong favourite. He ran an excellent race at Cheltenham when 4th of 20, but has gone up in the weights as a result -which hardly seems fair- while No Buts (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), who ran in a different race at the Festival, has actually come down in the weights and seems handicapped to win now. Of course we would really like to see German-bred Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Daryl Jacob) score here; the half-brother to Samum and co has had an excellent season, but seems handicapped to the hilt as a result. Mann does well with his ex-German horses and also has a chance with ex-Mario Hofer Verano in the novice handicap hurdle at 15.20 here, but this looks a very tricky race.
AP McCoy is riding at Chepstow, almost certainly for the last time, and has some decent chances, notably with Rouquine Sauvage for Antony Honeyball at 16.05, Ashes House for Rebecca Curtis half an nour laterand Jonjo O´Neill´s Rock´n´Rhythm at 17.40.

A German-bred running at Kempton is the ex-Löwe Mertesacker (Robin Dickin/ Charlie Poste) at 15.0; he must have a chance in a weak race but Cry Fury (Gary and Josh Moore), who was a bit better on the flat, is an obvious danger. Two possible each-way bets here are New Horizons (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) at 16.50 and the Moores´ Civil War at 17.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rayak - Rathealy - Cut The Corner
2. Race: Ready Token - Wing Mira - Bally Braes
3. Race: Seventh Sky - Foundation Man - Benefit Cut
4. Race: Saint John Henry - Heronshaw - Rolling Maul
5. Race: Coolking - Hi Vic - Lively Baron
6. Race: Oh Land Abloom - The Gipper - Ballydine