Friday, November 28, 2014

Grade Two chase at Newbury

easily the best of today´s 5 cards is that at Newbury, where the Grade Two novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.05 CET is the main event. In the past this has been won by subsequent Gold Cup winners such as Denman and Bobsworth, but it is unlikely that there is a horse of that calibre in today´s small field. If there is, it can only de Saphir du Rheu (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) described by the trainer as "the apple of my eye". He makes his chasing debut here, but was the best of these over hurdles. Dell´Arca (David PIpe/ Tom Scudamore) probably needs better ground - he is by Sholokhov out of an Acatenango mare- so Coneygree (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville), a brother to the smart staying mudder Carruthers, looks the main danger. He has not run for ages, but was controversially withdrawn at the start two weeks ago, so should be fit enough, but will certainly need longer distances in time.
The handicap chase over the same trip at 15.40 has attracted a useful field, including Irish raider The Paparazzi Kid (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). He has not run since winning a graded novice chase at Limerick last Christmas, we are a bit sceptical, especially after the two Mullins runners here yesterday were both well beaten. It is no surprise that Tony McCoy prefers Pendra of owner JP McManus´ two runners, and although he has not run since being well beaten in the Irish Grand National, he will find this trip much more to his liking and is out selection. Ex-German Lamool (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne), unbeaten in his two U.K. starts, could be next best.
McCoy also Partners Unique de Coztte for David PIpe in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 14.30 and this one, unpenalisred for his Cheltenham success a fortnight ago, should score again. The bounce factor could be a problem- that his first start in almost 2 years, in which case the much improved Little Boy Boru (Suzy Smith/ Harry Bannister) looks a good each-way alternative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Old Guard - Mick Jazz - Bassarabad
2. Race: Comeonginger - Quick Decisson - Wilton Milan
3. Race: Unique De Cotte - Tullyesker Hill - Little Boy Boru
4. Race: Coneygree - Dell` Arca - Deep Trouble
5. Race: The Paparrazi Kid - Sound Investment - Carrigmorna King
6. Race: Thomas Brown - Tea For Two - Out Sam
7. Race: Days Of Heaven - Different Gravey - Coyaba