listed race in Ireland this evening

as so often, the best racing comes from Ireland today. There is a good card at Leopardstown this evening, featuring the listed Challenge Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 22.00 CET. Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen did not won this last year, but they scored five times in succession before that and we expect them to win again with the smart 5yo mare Pale Mimosa; she won the Saval Beg over this CD last year on her only previous run here and has easily the best form in the race, though a bit of rain would probably help. Certerach (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) is the obvious danger; he won the Dubai Gold Cup this year and last timer was runner-up in the Curragh Cup, but we doubt that he can concede 10 lbs to the Weld mare.With an eye to the future, the two 2yo maidens that open the card should certainly be watched, as there are some well-bred newcomers from top stables running here, who could well be group horses later on. Weld/ Smullen have runners in both races with chances, but there is plenty of opposition.
Also in Ireland, we have the final day of the Killarney meeting this afternoon with another mixed card - 3 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles and a bumper. The best race is the handicap hurdle at 17.40. Xsquared (Joanna Morgan/ Joe Cullen) has won his last 3 races over sticks, but is not well handicapped now and is in any case inferior on flat form to Orgiglu Bay (JC McConnell/ MJ Bolger), a very easy winner at Downpatrick only on Monday. However our choice is Sizing Italy (Henry de Bromhead/ Barry Geraghty), who has not run over hurdles for quite a while, but has good form both over fences and on the flat and now seems very nicely handicapped. He won a chase at this meeting last year and can now run off a mark 23 lbs below his chase rating.
The best event in the U.K. is the conditions race for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 16.25 at Leicester. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the field has cut up badly and only two runners are prepared to take on Arod (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer).who followed his second place in the Dante with an excellent fourth in the Derby. Sir Jack Layden (David Brown/ Ryan Moore) and Spark Plug (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) are both very useful performers, but we cannot imagine that they can defeat Arod at level weights. However he is not a good betting proposition at the likely long odds-on.

Betting forecast at Leopardstown:
1. Race: Initial - Rule The Waves - Fields Of May
2. Race: Raydara - Vocaliser - Mohaayed
3. Race: Flight Risk - Rightway - First Sitting
4. Race: Oor Jock - Focas Mor - Relentless Pursuit
5. Race: Castle Of Argh - Sea`s Aria - Blackstone
6. Race: Vastonea - Magnolia Beach - Chance To Dance
7. Race: Pale Mimosa - Certerach - Eye Of The Storm