Friday, July 18, 2014

listed races at Newbury and Hamilton

6 meetings in the U.K. today (plus a jumps meeting in Ireland) and much better class racing than we have seen for the past few days, with both Newbury and Hamilton staging listed races. The Scottish track races in the evening, and the Glasgow Stakes for 3yo´s over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 21.10 CET looks an interesting trial for the St. Leger. Impulsive Moment (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) and Sudden Wonder (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa) both ran unplaced in the Derby last time; we prefer the former, but Postponed (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) looks a big threat. Hamilton also stage the best handicap of the day, the Scottish Stewards Cup over 6 furlongs at 20.40. Richard Fahey has won this 3 times in the last 6 years and saddles 3 runners today; Tatlisu (Tom Eaves) and Khelman (Pat Mathers) are both up in the weights after winning last time, so we prefer the rather inconsistent Sir Reginald (George Chaloner), who can certainly win this if in the right mood. Mass Rally (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) is the class act in the field, but has a huge weight, and CD specialist Hopes N Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Graham Lee), who runs her best races here, looks the main danger.
At Newbury, the listed event is a 2yo race over 6 furlongs at 16.40. It looks a match between Adaay (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) and LImato (Henry Candy/ James Doyle). The latter is very promising and is unbeaten after winning twice at Kempton. However this is his first time on turf and we prefer tjhe Hamdan al Maktoum runner, whose owner has several good chances here today. Hanagan should certainly go home with a winner or two, but in the two main handicaps we side with Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore, who can take the 16.05 with Sea The Bloom and the 17.45 with Enobled.
One of the weaknesses of British and Irish racing and breeding is shown by the fact that the top races everywhere else are over sprint distances. We think that the 5 furlongs handicap at Nottingham at 16.30 could lie between the oldtimers Inxile (David and Adrian Nicholls) and Doctor Parkes (Steve Williams/ Freddie Tylicki), while Paul Midgley´s two runners could dominate the 5 furlongs handicap at Pontefract at 20.30. The conditions race over the same trip at Newmarket at 20.20 can go to Godolphin´s Strategical (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick). While at Haydock this afternoon, the main event is another 5 furlongs handicap at 16.50; Sleepy Blue Ocean (John Balding/ Luke Morris) won it last year and can go close again.

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Nafaqa - Marshall Jennings - Dissolution
2. Race: Taaqah - Sulaalaat - Black Cherry
3. Race: Sea The Bloom - Cay Dancer - Wojha
4. Race: Adaay - Limato - Step To The Shears
5. Race: Ask The Guru - Flying Bear - Edged Out
6. Race: Enobled - Insaany - Border Legend
7. Race: Ada Lovelace - Ray Of Joy - Chevise